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1. Global Carbon Budget 2021

Author

Nathalie Lefèvre, Thomas Gasser, Bronte Tilbrook, Glen P. Peters, Andy Wiltshire, Eddy Robertson, Frédéric Chevallier, George C. Hurtt, Michael O'Sullivan, Steve D Jones, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Robert B. Jackson, Yosuke Niwa, Benjamin Poulter, Andrew J. Watson, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Gregor Rehder, T. Chau, Philippe Ciais, Christian Rödenbeck, J. G. Canadell, N. R. Bates, C. Wada, Judith Hauck, Colm Sweeney, Yosuke Iida, Giacomo Grassi, D. Gilfillan, R. Wanninkhof, Thais M. Rosan, Margot Cronin, J. Liu, Peter Anthoni, Robbie M. Andrew, C. Schwingshackl, X. Dou, Ian Harris, T. Ono, Siv K. Lauvset, David R. Willis, Thanos Gkritzalis, Laure Resplandy, C. Le Quéré, N. Vuichard, Gregg Marland, Matthew W. Jones, Richard A. Feely, Patrick C. McGuire, Xu Yue, Pieter P. Tans, Roland Séférian, Liang Feng, Peter Landschützer, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Pierre Friedlingstein, Francesco N. Tubiello, O. Gürses, Sönke Zaehle, Denis Pierrot, G. R. van der Werf, Chao Yue, Arne Körtzinger, Sebastian Lienert, Nicolas Gruber, S. Nakaoka, Jürgen Knauer, D. Kennedy, Luke Gregor, Hanqin Tian, J. Zeng, Wouter Peters, L. Djeutchouang, B. Decharme, Richard A. Houghton, Wenping Yuan, Julia Pongratz, David R. Munro, Atul K. Jain, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Bellouin, Etsushi Kato, Wiley Evans, Meike Becker, Jörg Schwinger, Toste Tanhua, Laurent Bopp, Tatiana Ilyina, Adrienne J. Sutton, Louise Chini, Kim I. Currie, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Stephen Sitch, and Simone R. Alin

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0207 environmental engineering, Biosphere, Biogeochemistry, 02 engineering and technology, 15. Life on land, Atmospheric sciences, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Carbon cycle, Atmosphere, chemistry.chemical_compound, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Deforestation, Greenhouse gas, 11. Sustainability, Carbon dioxide, Environmental science, Sink (computing), 020701 environmental engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data-products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gases inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries’ climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021, suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.9 % (4.1 % to 5.7 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra- tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2020; Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, 2018a, 2016, 2015b, 2015a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Published
2022

2. Patterns and trends of the dominant environmental controls of net biome productivity

Author

Alessandro Cescatti, Christian Rödenbeck, Mirco Migliavacca, and Barbara Marcolla

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Biome, lcsh:Life, Atmospheric sciences, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Sink (geography), Settore BIO/07 - ECOLOGIA, lcsh:QH540-549.5, medicine, Ecosystem, Temporal scales, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Carbon sink, Seasonality, medicine.disease, Arid, lcsh:Geology, lcsh:QH501-531, Environmental science, Terrestrial ecosystem, lcsh:Ecology
Abstract

In the last decades terrestrial ecosystems have reabsorbed on average more than one-quarter of anthropogenic emissions (Le Quéré et al., 2018). However, this large carbon sink is modulated by climate and is therefore highly variable in time and space. The magnitude and temporal changes in the sensitivity of terrestrial CO2 fluxes to climate drivers are key factors to determine future atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate trajectories. In the literature, there is so far a strong focus on the climatic controls of daily and long-term variability, while less is known about the key drivers at a seasonal timescale and about their variation over time (Wohlfahrt et al., 2008). This latter temporal scale is relevant to assess which climatic drivers dominate the seasonality of the fluxes and to understand which factors limit the CO2 exchange during the course of the year. Here, we investigate the global sensitivity of net terrestrial CO2 fluxes, derived from atmospheric inversion, to three key climate drivers (i.e. global radiation and temperature from WFDEI and soil water content from ERA-Interim) from weekly to seasonal temporal scales, in order to explore the short-term interdependence between climate and the terrestrial carbon budget. We observed that the CO2 exchange is controlled by temperature during the carbon uptake period over most of the land surface (from 55 % to 52 % of the total surface), while radiation is the most widespread dominant climate driver during the carbon release period (from 64 % to 70 % of the total surface). As expected, soil water content plays a key role in arid regions of the Southern Hemisphere during both the carbon uptake and the carbon release period. Looking at the decadal trend of these sensitivities (1985–2016) we observed that the importance of radiation as a driver is increasing over time, while we observed a decrease in sensitivity to temperature in Eurasia. Overall, we show that flux temporal variation due to a specific driver has been dominated by the temporal changes in ecosystem sensitivity (i.e. the response of ecosystem to climate) rather than to the temporal variability of the climate driver itself over the last decades. Ultimately, this analysis shows that the ecosystem response to climate is significantly changing both in space and in time, with potential repercussion on the future terrestrial CO2 sink and therefore on the role that land may play in climate trajectories.

Published
2020

3. Are Land-Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?

Author

Masayuki Kondo, Stephen Sitch, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Achard, Etsushi Kato, Julia Pongratz, Richard A. Houghton, Josep G. Canadell, Prabir K. Patra, Pierre Friedlingstein, Wei Li, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Frédéric Chevallier, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Anna Harper, Atul K. Jain, Charles Koven, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Takashi Maki, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Takashi Nakamura, Yosuke Niwa, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Christian Rödenbeck, Tazu Saeki, Benjamin Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Aging, Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, 530 Physics, Life on Land, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, forest area, atmospheric inversions, Oceanography, Southeast Asia, book-keeping models, Atmospheric Sciences, Earth sciences, Geochemistry, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], ddc:550, Environmental Chemistry, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, land-use changes, General Environmental Science
Abstract

Southeast Asia is a region known for active land-use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process-based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book-keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil-palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 36 (1), ISSN:0886-6236, ISSN:1944-9224

Published
2022

4. Data-based estimates of interannual sea–air CO2 flux variations 1957–2020 and their relation to environmental drivers

Author

Christian Rödenbeck, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Tim DeVries, and Ralph F. Keeling

Subjects
Mixed layer, Flux, Atmospheric sciences, Wind speed, Latitude, Secular variation, Sea surface temperature, 13. Climate action, Sea air, Environmental science, Upwelling, 14. Life underwater, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Earth-Surface Processes
Abstract

This study considers year-to-year and decadal variations in as well as secular trends of the sea–air CO2 flux over the 1957–2020 period, as constrained by the pCO2 measurements from the SOCATv2021 database. In a first step, we relate interannual anomalies in ocean-internal carbon sources and sinks to local interannual anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST), the temporal changes in SST (dSST/dt), and squared wind speed (u2), employing a multi-linear regression. In the tropical Pacific, we find interannual variability to be dominated by dSST/dt, as arising from variations in the upwelling of colder and more carbon-rich waters into the mixed layer. In the eastern upwelling zones as well as in circumpolar bands in the high latitudes of both hemispheres, we find sensitivity to wind speed, compatible with the entrainment of carbon-rich water during wind-driven deepening of the mixed layer and wind-driven upwelling. In the Southern Ocean, the secular increase in wind speed leads to a secular increase in the carbon source into the mixed layer, with an estimated reduction in the sink trend in the range of 17 % to 42 %. In a second step, we combined the result of the multi-linear regression and an explicitly interannual pCO2-based additive correction into a “hybrid” estimate of the sea–air CO2 flux over the period 1957–2020. As a pCO2 mapping method, it combines (a) the ability of a regression to bridge data gaps and extrapolate into the early decades almost void of pCO2 data based on process-related observables and (b) the ability of an auto-regressive interpolation to follow signals even if not represented in the chosen set of explanatory variables. The “hybrid” estimate can be applied as an ocean flux prior for atmospheric CO2 inversions covering the whole period of atmospheric CO2 data since 1957.

Published
2021

5. Contrasting effects of CO2 fertilization, land-use change and warming on seasonal amplitude of Northern Hemisphere CO2 exchange

Author

Danica Lombardozzi, Yi Yin, Josep Peñuelas, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shilong Piao, Zaichun Zhu, Philippe Peylin, Philippe Ciais, Sebastian Lienert, Xuhui Wang, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Christian Rödenbeck, William K. Smith, Atul K. Jain, Dan Zhu, Etsushi Kato, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Benjamin Poulter, Vanessa Haverd, Ana Bastos, Pierre Friedlingstein, Frédéric Chevallier, Stephen Sitch, and Fabienne Maignan

Subjects
0303 health sciences, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Range (biology), Northern Hemisphere, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Latitude, 03 medical and health sciences, Human fertilization, Productivity (ecology), Boreal, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Land use, land-use change and forestry, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Continuous atmospheric CO2 monitoring data indicate an increase in the amplitude of seasonal CO2-cycle exchange (SCANBP) in northern high latitudes. The major drivers of enhanced SCANBP remain unclear and intensely debated, with land-use change, CO2 fertilization and warming being identified as likely contributors. We integrated CO2-flux data from two atmospheric inversions (consistent with atmospheric records) and from 11 state-of-the-art land-surface models (LSMs) to evaluate the relative importance of individual contributors to trends and drivers of the SCANBP of CO2 fluxes for 1980–2015. The LSMs generally reproduce the latitudinal increase in SCANBP trends within the inversions range. Inversions and LSMs attribute SCANBP increase to boreal Asia and Europe due to enhanced vegetation productivity (in LSMs) and point to contrasting effects of CO2 fertilization (positive) and warming (negative) on SCANBP. Our results do not support land-use change as a key contributor to the increase in SCANBP. The sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature in LSMs explained biases in SCANBP trends, which suggests that SCANBP could help to constrain model turnover times.

Published
2019

6. Global atmospheric CO2 inverse models converging on neutral tropical land exchange, but disagreeing on fossil fuel and atmospheric growth rate

Author

Wouter Peters, Britton B. Stephens, Tazu Saeki, Steven C. Wofsy, Eric A. Kort, Prabir K. Patra, Sourish Basu, Christian Rödenbeck, Feng Deng, David S. Schimel, Yi Yin, Frédéric Chevallier, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, and Benjamin Gaubert

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, Fossil fuel, Northern Hemisphere, Atmospheric carbon cycle, Inversion (meteorology), 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Carbon cycle, Flux (metallurgy), 13. Climate action, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, Extratropical cyclone, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Growth rate, business, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes
Abstract

We have compared a suite of recent global CO2 atmospheric inversion results to independent airborne observations and to each other, to assess their dependence on differences in northern extratropical (NET) vertical transport and to identify some of the drivers of model spread. We evaluate posterior CO2 concentration profiles against observations from the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft campaigns over the mid-Pacific in 2009–2011. Although the models differ in inverse approaches, assimilated observations, prior fluxes, and transport models, their broad latitudinal separation of land fluxes has converged significantly since the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle Inversion Intercomparison (TransCom 3) and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) projects, with model spread reduced by 80 % since TransCom 3 and 70 % since RECCAP. Most modeled CO2 fields agree reasonably well with the HIPPO observations, specifically for the annual mean vertical gradients in the Northern Hemisphere. Northern Hemisphere vertical mixing no longer appears to be a dominant driver of northern versus tropical (T) annual flux differences. Our newer suite of models still gives northern extratropical land uptake that is modest relative to previous estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013) and near-neutral tropical land uptake for 2009–2011. Given estimates of emissions from deforestation, this implies a continued uptake in intact tropical forests that is strong relative to historical estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013). The results from these models for other time periods (2004–2014, 2001–2004, 1992–1996) and re-evaluation of the TransCom 3 Level 2 and RECCAP results confirm that tropical land carbon fluxes including deforestation have been near neutral for several decades. However, models still have large disagreements on ocean–land partitioning. The fossil fuel (FF) and the atmospheric growth rate terms have been thought to be the best-known terms in the global carbon budget, but we show that they currently limit our ability to assess regional-scale terrestrial fluxes and ocean–land partitioning from the model ensemble.

Published
2019

7. Quantifying the ocean carbon sink for 1994-2007: Combined evidence from multiple methods

Author

Laure Resplandy, Nancy L. Williams, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Rik Wanninkhof, Christian Rödenbeck, Judith Hauck, Raymond G. Najjar, Amanda R. Fay, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, Tim DeVries, Galen A. McKinley, Christopher L. Sabine, Jessica N. Cross, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Peter Landschützer

Subjects
Environmental science, Carbon sink, Multiple methods, Atmospheric sciences
Abstract

By means of a variety of international observing and modeling efforts, the ocean carbon community has developed numerous estimates for ocean carbon uptake. In this presentation, we report on the synthesis effort we are undertaking under the auspices of an Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Working Group. Our initial goal for this working group is to determine the best estimate for the net and anthropogenic carbon sink from 1994-2007 based on three approaches that independently use interior data, surface data or hindcast ocean models. Combining two approaches that use interior ocean data to estimate anthropogenic carbon, Fant = -2.40+-0.21 PgC/yr (2 sigma uncertainty). Estimates for the net, or contemporary, ocean carbon uptake come from 6 products that interpolate surface ocean pCO2 data to global coverage: Fnet = -1.58+-0.19 PgC/yr for 1994-2007. Uncertain closure terms for naturally-outgassed river-derived carbon and non-steady state natural carbon fluxes in the open ocean are then added to derive Fant from surface observation-based Fnet. Ocean models do not include river-derived carbon, but do include non-steady state natural carbon fluxes, and thus a third estimate for Fant is derived. The combined best-estimate is Fant = -2.35+-0.53 PgC/yr. We detail the uncertainties and assumptions made in deriving these estimates, and suggest paths forward to further reduce uncertainties.

Published
2021

8. SeaFlux: harmonization of air–sea CO2 fluxes from surface pCO2 data products using a standardized approach

Author

Peter Landschützer, Alizee Roobaert, Goulven Gildas Laruelle, Nicolas Gruber, Jiye Zeng, Christian Rödenbeck, Yosuke Iida, Marion Gehlen, Luke Gregor, Amanda R. Fay, Galen A. McKinley, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [New York], Columbia University [New York], Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich] (IBP), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, Surface (mathematics), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Data products, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Standardized approach, chemistry.chemical_element, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Carbon cycle, Atmosphere, chemistry.chemical_compound, Flux (metallurgy), chemistry, 13. Climate action, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Carbon dioxide, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, 14. Life underwater, Carbon, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Air–sea flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) is a critical component of the global carbon cycle and the climate system with the ocean removing about a quarter of the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere by human activities over the last decade. A common approach to estimate this net flux of CO2 across the air–sea interface is the use of surface ocean CO2 observations and the computation of the flux through a bulk parameterization approach. Yet, the details for how this is done in order to arrive at a global ocean CO2 uptake estimate vary greatly, enhancing the spread of estimates. Here we introduce the ensemble data product, SeaFlux (Gregor and Fay, 2021, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5482547​​​​​​​, https://github.com/luke-gregor/pySeaFlux, last access: 9 September 2021​​​​​​​); this resource enables users to harmonize an ensemble of products that interpolate surface ocean CO2 observations to near-global coverage with a common methodology to fill in missing areas in the products. Further, the dataset provides the inputs to calculate fluxes in a consistent manner. Utilizing six global observation-based mapping products (CMEMS-FFNN, CSIR-ML6, JENA-MLS, JMA-MLR, MPI-SOMFFN, NIES-FNN), the SeaFlux ensemble approach adjusts for methodological inconsistencies in flux calculations. We address differences in spatial coverage of the surface ocean CO2 between the mapping products, which ultimately yields an increase in CO2 uptake of up to 17 % for some products. Fluxes are calculated using three wind products (CCMPv2, ERA5, and JRA55). Application of a scaled gas exchange coefficient has a greater impact on the resulting flux than solely the choice of wind product. With these adjustments, we present an ensemble of global surface ocean pCO2 and air–sea carbon flux estimates. This work aims to support the community effort to perform model–data intercomparisons which will help to identify missing fluxes as we strive to close the global carbon budget.

Published
2021

9. Decadal Variability in Land Carbon Sink Efficiency Reveals Apparent Trend Reversal After 2009

Author

Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Masayuki Kondo, Wei Li, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Frédéric Chevallier, Christian Rödenbeck, Thomas Gasser, Julia Pongratz, and Lei Zhu

Subjects
Environmental science, Carbon sink, Atmospheric sciences
Abstract

Background: The climate mitigation target of limiting the temperature increase below 2 °C above the pre-industrial levels requires the efforts from all countries. Tracking the trajectory of the land carbon sink efficiency is thus crucial to evaluate the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Here, we define the instantaneous land sink efficiency as the ratio of natural land carbon sinks to emissions from fossil fuel and land-use and land-cover change with a value of 1 indicating carbon neutrality to track its temporal dynamics in the past decades.Results: Land sink efficiency has been decreasing during 1957-1990 because of the increased emissions from fossil fuel. After the effect of the Pinatubo eruption diminished (after 1994), the land sink efficiency firstly increased before 2009 and then began to decrease again after 2009. This reversal around 2009 is mostly attributed to changes in land sinks in Latin America in response to climate variations.Conclusions: The decreasing trend of land sink efficiency in the recent years reveals greater challenges in climate change mitigation, and impacts of climate on land carbon sinks need to be accurately quantified to assess the implementation of climate mitigation policies.

Published
2020

10. Decadal variability in land carbon sink efficiency

Author

Lei Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Julia Pongratz, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Christian Rödenbeck, Wei Li, Thomas Gasser, Masayuki Kondo, Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Nagoya University, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), This study is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant Number 2019YFA0606604, This work is also partly supported by the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative ESA‐CCI RECCAP2 project (ESRIN/ 4000123002/18/I‐NB), ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Pinatubo eruption, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Sink (geography), Carbon neutrality, 03 medical and health sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), GE1-350, Ecosystem, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Trend reversal, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, Global and Planetary Change, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, business.industry, Research, Fossil fuel, Carbon sink, Tropics, 15. Life on land, Land carbon sink efficiency, Environmental sciences, Climate change mitigation, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, business
Abstract

Background The climate mitigation target of limiting the temperature increase below 2 °C above the pre-industrial levels requires the efforts from all countries. Tracking the trajectory of the land carbon sink efficiency is thus crucial to evaluate the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Here, we define the instantaneous land sink efficiency as the ratio of natural land carbon sinks to emissions from fossil fuel and land-use and land-cover change with a value of 1 indicating carbon neutrality to track its temporal dynamics in the past decades. Results Land sink efficiency has been decreasing during 1957–1990 because of the increased emissions from fossil fuel. After the effect of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption diminished (after 1994), the land sink efficiency firstly increased before 2009 and then began to decrease again after 2009. This reversal around 2009 is mostly attributed to changes in land sinks in tropical regions in response to climate variations. Conclusions The decreasing trend of land sink efficiency in recent years reveals greater challenges in climate change mitigation, and that climate impacts on land carbon sinks must be accurately quantified to assess the effectiveness of regional scale climate mitigation policies.

Published
2020

11. The European carbon cycle response to heat and drought as seen from atmospheric CO(2)data for 1999-2018

Author

Christian Rödenbeck, Martin Heimann, Sönke Zaehle, Ralph F. Keeling, and Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, geography, FLUXES, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, net ecosystem exchange, interannual variability, drought, 15. Life on land, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 114 Physical sciences, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Carbon cycle, 13. Climate action, Net ecosystem exchange, Spring (hydrology), Environmental science, CO2, INVERSION, Natural ecosystem, atmospheric inversion, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, 010606 plant biology & botany, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

In 2018, central and northern parts of Europe experienced heat and drought conditions over many months from spring to autumn, strongly affecting both natural ecosystems and crops. Besides their impact on nature and society, events like this can be used to study the impact of climate variations on the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is an important determinant of the future climate trajectory. Here, variations in the regional net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere were quantified from measurements of atmospheric CO 2 mole fractions. Over Europe, several observational records have been maintained since at least 1999, giving us the opportunity to assess the 2018 anomaly in the context of at least two decades of variations, including the strong climate anomaly in 2003. In addition to an atmospheric inversion with temporally explicitly estimated anomalies, we use an inversion based on empirical statistical relations between anomalies in the local NEE and anomalies in local climate conditions. For our analysis period 1999–2018, we find that higher-than-usual NEE in hot and dry summers may tend to arise in Central Europe from enhanced ecosystem respiration due to the elevated temperatures, and in Southern Europe from reduced photosynthesis due to the reduced water availability. Despite concerns in the literature, the level of agreement between regression-based NEE anomalies and temporally explicitly estimated anomalies indicates that the atmospheric CO 2 measurements from the relatively dense European station network do provide information about the year-to-year variations of Europe’s carbon sources and sinks, at least in summer. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale’.

Published
2020

12. Consistency and Challenges in the Ocean Carbon Sink Estimate for the Global Carbon Budget

Author

Judith Hauck, Moritz Zeising, Corinne Le Quéré, Nicolas Gruber, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Özgür Gürses, Tatiana Ilyina, Peter Landschützer, Andrew Lenton, Laure Resplandy, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich] (IBP), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Princeton Environmental Institute [Princeton University] (PEI), Princeton University, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and ANR-16-CE01-0014,SOBUMS,Comprendre la réponse du cycle du carbone dans l'océan austral au stress climatique(2016)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, Biogeochemical cycle, lcsh:QH1-199.5, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Surface ocean, Ocean Engineering, lcsh:General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, Aquatic Science, ocean carbon uptake, Oceanography, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Standard deviation, Sink (geography), 14. Life underwater, lcsh:Science, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Water Science and Technology, riverine carbon flux, Global and Planetary Change, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Carbon sink, anthropogenic CO2, ocean carbon cycle model evaluation, Carbon project, variability of the ocean carbon sink, 13. Climate action, seasonal cycle, Environmental science, lcsh:Q, Seasonal cycle
Abstract

International audience; Based on the 2019 assessment of the Global Carbon Project, the ocean took up on average, 2.5 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1 or 23 ± 5% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the decade 2009–2018. This sink estimate is based on simulation results from global ocean biogeochemical models (GOBMs) and is compared to data-products based on observations of surface ocean pCO2 (partial pressure of CO2) accounting for the outgassing of river-derived CO2. Here we evaluate the GOBM simulations by comparing the simulated surface ocean pCO2 to observations. Based on this comparison, the simulations are well-suited for quantifying the global ocean carbon sink on the time-scale of the annual mean and its multi-decadal trend (RMSE

Published
2020

13. The ECCO‐Darwin data‐assimilative global ocean biogeochemistry model: Estimates of seasonal to multi‐decadal surface ocean pCO2 and air‐sea CO2 flux

Author

Junjie Liu, Ian Fenty, Chris Hill, D. Schimel, Christian Rödenbeck, Michelle M. Gierach, Hong Zhang, Dustin Carroll, T. Van der Stocken, Oliver Jahn, Peter Landschützer, John D. Naviaux, M. Manizza, Jess F. Adkins, Dimitris Menemenlis, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Kevin W. Bowman, Holger Brix, and Jonathan Maitland Lauderdale

Subjects
sea CO2 flux, Biogeochemical cycle, Physical geography, air&#8208, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, air‐sea CO2 flux, Biome, ecosystem model, GC1-1581, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, Ecosystem model, biogeochemistry, Environmental Chemistry, ocean modeling, Marine ecosystem, 14. Life underwater, data assimilation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global and Planetary Change, Ocean current, Biogeochemistry, Carbon sink, GB3-5030, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Oceanic carbon cycle, ocean carbon cycle
Abstract

Quantifying variability in the ocean carbon sink remains problematic due to sparse observations and spatiotemporal variability in surface ocean pCO2. To address this challenge, we have updated and improved ECCO‐Darwin, a global ocean biogeochemistry model that assimilates both physical and biogeochemical observations. The model consists of an adjoint‐based ocean circulation estimate from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium and an ecosystem model developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Darwin Project. In addition to the data‐constrained ECCO physics, a Green's function approach is used to optimize the biogeochemistry by adjusting initial conditions and six biogeochemical parameters. Over seasonal to multidecadal timescales (1995–2017), ECCO‐Darwin exhibits broad‐scale consistency with observed surface ocean pCO2 and air‐sea CO2 flux reconstructions in most biomes, particularly in the subtropical and equatorial regions. The largest differences between CO2 uptake occur in subpolar seasonally stratified biomes, where ECCO‐Darwin results in stronger winter uptake. Compared to the Global Carbon Project OBMs, ECCO‐Darwin has a time‐mean global ocean CO2 sink (2.47 ± 0.50 Pg C year−1) and interannual variability that are more consistent with interpolation‐based products. Compared to interpolation‐based methods, ECCO‐Darwin is less sensitive to sparse and irregularly sampled observations. Thus, ECCO‐Darwin provides a basis for identifying and predicting the consequences of natural and anthropogenic perturbations to the ocean carbon cycle, as well as the climate‐related sensitivity of marine ecosystems. Our study further highlights the importance of physically consistent, property‐conserving reconstructions, as are provided by ECCO, for ocean biogeochemistry studies.

Published
2020

14. Southern Annular Mode Influence on Wintertime Ventilation of the Southern Ocean Detected in Atmospheric O 2 and CO 2 Measurements

Author

Cynthia D. Nevison, David R. Munro, Christian Rödenbeck, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Ralph F. Keeling, Eric J. Morgan, and M. Manizza

Subjects
chemistry.chemical_compound, Geophysics, chemistry, law, Ventilation (architecture), Carbon dioxide, Mode (statistics), General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Atmospheric sciences, Antarctic oscillation, law.invention
Published
2020

15. Changes in net ecosystem exchange over Europe during the 2018 drought based on atmospheric observations

Author

E. van Schaik, Ute Karstens, Rona Thompson, Saqr Munassar, Michel Ramonet, Alecia Nickless, Christian Rödenbeck, Guillaume Monteil, Grégoire Broquet, Thomas Koch, Christoph Gerbig, Marko Scholze, Zhendong Wu, Matthew Lang, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-RAMCES (ICOS-RAMCES), European Project: 776810,H2020,H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB,VERIFY(2018), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology and Air Quality, net ecosystem exchange, drought, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Carbon Cycle, Temperate climate, atmospheric inversion, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Ecosystem, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmosphere, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Anomaly (natural sciences), atmospheric tracer transport modelling, Vegetation, Articles, 15. Life on land, Carbon, Droughts, Europe, 13. Climate action, Net ecosystem exchange, Soil water, Environmental science, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Research Article
Abstract

The 2018 drought was one of the worst European droughts of the twenty-first century in terms of its severity, extent and duration. The effects of the drought could be seen in a reduction in harvest yields in parts of Europe, as well as an unprecedented browning of vegetation in summer. Here, we quantify the effect of the drought on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using five independent regional atmospheric inversion frameworks. Using a network of atmospheric CO 2 mole fraction observations, we estimate NEE with at least monthly and 0.5° × 0.5° resolution for 2009–2018. We find that the annual NEE in 2018 was likely more positive (less CO 2 uptake) in the temperate region of Europe by 0.09 ± 0.06 Pg C yr −1 (mean ± s.d.) compared to the mean of the last 10 years of −0.08 ± 0.17 Pg C yr −1 , making the region close to carbon neutral in 2018. Similarly, we find a positive annual NEE anomaly for the northern region of Europe of 0.02 ± 0.02 Pg C yr −1 compared the 10-year mean of −0.04 ± 0.05 Pg C yr −1 . In both regions, this was largely owing to a reduction in the summer CO 2 uptake. The positive NEE anomalies coincided spatially and temporally with negative anomalies in soil water. These anomalies were exceptional for the 10-year period of our study. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale’.

Published
2020

16. Spring photosynthetic onset and net <scp>CO</scp> 2 uptake in Alaska triggered by landscape thawing

Author

Josh Benmergui, K. A. Luus, Junjie Liu, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Charles E. Miller, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Randy Kawa, Christian Rödenbeck, Roisin Commane, Walter C. Oechel, Kyle A. Arndt, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Donatella Zona, N. Steiner, Almut Arneth, Ben Smith, and Eric Stofferahn

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, Taiga, Eddy covariance, 15. Life on land, Evergreen, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Subarctic climate, Tundra, Carbon cycle, Boreal, 13. Climate action, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, Ecosystem, 010606 plant biology & botany, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract

The springtime transition to regional-scale onset of photosynthesis and net ecosystem carbon uptake in boreal and tundra ecosystems are linked to the soil freeze-thaw state. We present evidence from diagnostic and inversion models constrained by satellite fluorescence and airborne CO2 from 2012 to 2014 indicating the timing and magnitude of spring carbon uptake in Alaska correlates with landscape thaw and ecoregion. Landscape thaw in boreal forests typically occurs in late April (DOY 111 ± 7) with a 29 ± 6 day lag until photosynthetic onset. North Slope tundra thaws 3 weeks later (DOY 133 ± 5) but experiences only a 20 ± 5 day lag until photosynthetic onset. These time lag differences reflect efficient cold season adaptation in tundra shrub and the longer dehardening period for boreal evergreens. Despite the short transition from thaw to photosynthetic onset in tundra, synchrony of tundra respiration with snow melt and landscape thaw delays the transition from net carbon loss (at photosynthetic onset) to net uptake by 13 ± 7 days, thus reducing the tundra net carbon uptake period. Two global CO2 inversions using a CASA-GFED model prior estimate earlier northern high latitude net carbon uptake compared to our regional inversion, which we attribute to (i) early photosynthetic-onset model prior bias, (ii) inverse method (scaling factor + optimization window), and (iii) sparsity of available Alaskan CO2 observations. Another global inversion with zero prior estimates the same timing for net carbon uptake as the regional model but smaller seasonal amplitude. The analysis of Alaskan eddy covariance observations confirms regional scale findings for tundra, but indicates that photosynthesis and net carbon uptake occur up to 1 month earlier in evergreens than captured by models or CO2 inversions, with better correlation to above-freezing air temperature than date of primary thaw. Further collection and analysis of boreal evergreen species over multiple years and at additional subarctic flux towers are critically needed.

Published
2018

17. Technical Note: Atmospheric CO2 inversions on the mesoscale using data-driven prior uncertainties: methodology and system evaluation

Author

Panagiotis Kountouris, Christian Rödenbeck, Martin Heimann, Ute Karstens, Thomas Koch, and Christoph Gerbig

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Correlation coefficient, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Mesoscale meteorology, Inversion (meteorology), Inverse problem, Residual, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 13. Climate action, Temporal resolution, Environmental science, Temporal scales, Image resolution, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Atmospheric inversions are widely used in the optimization of surface carbon fluxes on a regional scale using information from atmospheric CO2 dry mole fractions. In many studies the prior flux uncertainty applied to the inversion schemes does not directly reflect the true flux uncertainties but is used to regularize the inverse problem. Here, we aim to implement an inversion scheme using the Jena inversion system and applying a prior flux error structure derived from a model–data residual analysis using high spatial and temporal resolution over a full year period in the European domain. We analyzed the performance of the inversion system with a synthetic experiment, in which the flux constraint is derived following the same residual analysis but applied to the model–model mismatch. The synthetic study showed a quite good agreement between posterior and true fluxes on European, country, annual and monthly scales. Posterior monthly and country-aggregated fluxes improved their correlation coefficient with the known truth by 7 % compared to the prior estimates when compared to the reference, with a mean correlation of 0.92. The ratio of the SD between the posterior and reference and between the prior and reference was also reduced by 33 % with a mean value of 1.15. We identified temporal and spatial scales on which the inversion system maximizes the derived information; monthly temporal scales at around 200 km spatial resolution seem to maximize the information gain.

Published
2018

18. Recent changes in the dominant environmental controls of net biome productivity

Author

Barbara Marcolla, Mirco Migliavacca, Alessandro Cescatti, and Christian Rödenbeck

Subjects
geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Biome, Carbon sink, Seasonality, Atmospheric sciences, medicine.disease, Arid, Sink (geography), medicine, Environmental science, Ecosystem, Terrestrial ecosystem, Temporal scales
Abstract

In the last decades terrestrial ecosystems have reabsorbed on average more than one quarter of anthropogenic emissions (Le Quéré et al., 2018). However, this large carbon sink is modulated by climate and is therefore highly variable in time and space. The magnitude and temporal changes of the sensitivity of terrestrial CO2 fluxes to climate drivers are key factors to determine future atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate trajectories. In the literature there is so far a strong focus on the climatic controls of inter-annual variability, while less is known about the key drivers of the sub-annual variability of the fluxes. This latter temporal scale is relevant to assess which climatic drivers dominate the seasonality of the fluxes and to understand which factors limit the net ecosystem CO2 exchange. Here, we investigated the global sensitivity of terrestrial CO2 fluxes to three key climate drivers (i.e. global radiation, temperature and soil water content) from weekly to seasonal temporal scales, in order to explore the short-term interdependence between climate and the terrestrial carbon budget. We observed that the CO2 exchange over most of the land surface is controlled by temperature during the carbon uptake period, while radiation is the most widespread dominant climate driver during the carbon release period. As expected, soil water content plays a key role in arid regions of the southern hemisphere. Looking at the decadal trend of these sensitivities we observed that the importance of radiation as a driver is increasing over time, while we observed a decrease in sensitivity to temperature in Eurasia. Overall, we show that the temporal variation of the fluxes due to a specific driver is dominated by the temporal changes in ecosystem sensitivity rather than to the temporal variability of the driver itself. Ultimately this analysis shows that the response of the ecosystem to climate drivers is significantly changing both in space and in time, with potential repercussion on the future terrestrial CO2 sink and therefore on the role that land may play in climate mitigation.

Published
2019

19. Constraints on oceanic meridional heat transport from combined measurements of oxygen and carbon

Author

Ralph F. Keeling, J. D. Bent, Britton B. Stephens, Andrew R. Jacobson, Laure Resplandy, S. Khatiwala, and Christian Rödenbeck

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010505 oceanography, media_common.quotation_subject, Climate system, Northern Hemisphere, chemistry.chemical_element, Zonal and meridional, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Asymmetry, Oxygen, Troposphere, chemistry, Climatology, Environmental science, Hydrography, Carbon, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common
Abstract

Despite its importance to the climate system, the ocean meridional heat transport is still poorly quantified. We identify a strong link between the northern hemisphere deficit in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO = O $$_2$$ + 1.1 $$\times$$ CO $$_2$$ ) and the asymmetry in meridional heat transport between northern and southern hemispheres. The recent aircraft observations from the HIPPO campaign reveal a northern APO deficit in the tropospheric column of $$-$$ 10.4 $$\pm$$ 1.0 per meg, double the value at the surface and more representative of large-scale air–sea fluxes. The global northward ocean heat transport asymmetry necessary to explain the observed APO deficit is about 0.7–1.1 PW, which corresponds to the upper range of estimates from hydrographic sections and atmospheric reanalyses.

Published
2018

20. Revision of global carbon fluxes based on a reassessment of oceanic and riverine carbon transport

Author

Laure Resplandy, Keith B. Rodgers, Matthew C. Long, Christian Rödenbeck, Laurent Bopp, Ralph F. Keeling, Samar Khatiwala, Pieter P. Tans, and Britton B. Stephens

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Northern Hemisphere, Carbon sink, Biological pump, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Sink (geography), Carbon cycle, chemistry.chemical_compound, chemistry, Carbon dioxide, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Ecosystem, Southern Hemisphere, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration provide a tight constraint on the sum of the land and ocean sinks. This constraint has been combined with estimates of ocean carbon flux and riverine transport of carbon from land to oceans to isolate the land sink. Uncertainties in the ocean and river fluxes therefore translate into uncertainties in the land sink. Here, we introduce a heat-based constraint on the latitudinal distribution of ocean and river carbon fluxes, and reassess the partition between ocean, river and land in the tropics, and in the southern and northern extra-tropics. We show that the ocean overturning circulation and biological pump tightly link the ocean transports of heat and carbon between hemispheres. Using this coupling between heat and carbon, we derive ocean and river carbon fluxes compatible with observational constraints on heat transport. This heat-based constraint requires a 20–100% stronger ocean and river carbon transport from the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern Hemisphere than existing estimates, and supports an upward revision of the global riverine carbon flux from 0.45 to 0.78 PgC yr−1. These systematic biases in existing ocean/river carbon fluxes redistribute up to 40% of the carbon sink between northern, tropical and southern land ecosystems. As a consequence, the magnitude of both the southern land source and the northern land sink may have to be substantially reduced. Terrestrial carbon sources in the Southern Hemisphere and sinks in the Northern Hemisphere may be smaller than thought, according to a recalculation that accounts for the oceanic redistribution of carbon.

Published
2018

21. Observation-based trends of the southern ocean carbon sink

Author

R. Ritter, Yosuke Iida, S. Nakaoka, Peter Landschützer, P. Peylin, Keith B. Rodgers, Jiye Zeng, Amanda R. Fay, Nicolas Gruber, Jamie D. Shutler, Christian Rödenbeck, Geun-Ha Park, Steve D Jones, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich] (IBP), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Chemistry Department [Massachusetts Institute of Technology], Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Dept. Chemistry, North Dakota, North Dakota State University (NDSU), University of Exeter, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
trends, 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Carbon sink, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, observations, Geophysics, carbon sink, 13. Climate action, SOCOM, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, CO2, 14. Life underwater, Southern Ocean, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; The Southern Ocean (SO) carbon sink has strengthened substantially since the year 2000, following a decade of a weakening trend. However, the surface ocean pCO$_2$ data underlying this trend reversal are sparse, requiring a substantial amount of extrapolation to map the data. Here we use nine different pCO$_2$ mapping products to investigate the SO trends and their sensitivity to the mapping procedure. We find a robust temporal coherence for the entire SO, with eight of the nine products agreeing on the sign of the decadal trends, that is, a weakening CO$_2$ sink trend in the 1990s (on average 0.22 ± 0.24 pg C yr$^{−1}$ decade$^{−1}$), and a strengthening sink trend during the 2000s (−0.35 ± 0.23 pg C yr$^{−1}$ decade$^{−1}$). Spatially, the multiproduct mean reveals rather uniform trends, but the confidence is limited, given the small number of statistically significant trends from the individual products, particularly during the data-sparse 1990-1999 period. Plain Language Summary The Southern Ocean plays an important role in regulating Earth's climate as it takes up a substantial amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, thereby limiting the effect of global warming. However, this part of the global ocean is also the least well observed and observational data are sparse. Therefore, to study Southern Ocean carbon uptake, data interpolation methods are used to estimate the variability of the carbon uptake from the few existing observations. This poses the question on how reliable these estimates are. The Surface Ocean CO$_2$ Mapping intercomparison project aims to do exactly that, that is, test how reliable current estimates are by comparing results from different methods. Here we compare the results from nine data interpolation methods in the Southern Ocean from 1990 to 2010 and find a broad and encouraging agreement regarding decadal carbon uptake signals, whereas a spatially more refined analysis reveals much less agreement locally, illustrating the need to continue the measurement effort in the Southern Ocean.

Published
2017

22. Vegetation greenness and land carbon-flux anomalies associated with climate variations: a focus on the year 2015

Author

Yi Yin, Philippe Ciais, Chao Yue, Taejin Park, Frédéric Chevallier, Ana Bastos, Christian Rödenbeck, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Boston University [Boston] (BU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
0301 basic medicine, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Growing season, Carbon sequestration, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Chemistry, 03 medical and health sciences, Greening, Ecosystem, Southern Hemisphere, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Carbon sink, Tropics, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, lcsh:QC1-999, 030104 developmental biology, lcsh:QD1-999, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental science, [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology, lcsh:Physics
Abstract

Understanding the variations in global land carbon uptake, and their driving mechanisms, is essential if we are to predict future carbon-cycle feedbacks on global environmental changes. Satellite observations of vegetation greenness have shown consistent greening across the globe over the past three decades. Such greening has driven the increasing land carbon sink, especially over the growing season in northern latitudes. On the other hand, interannual variations in land carbon uptake are strongly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate variations. Marked reductions in land uptake and strong positive anomalies in the atmospheric CO2 growth rates occur during El Niño events. Here we use the year 2015 as a natural experiment to examine the possible response of land ecosystems to a combination of vegetation greening and an El Niño event. The year 2015 was the greenest year since 2000 according to satellite observations, but a record atmospheric CO2 growth rate also occurred due to a weaker than usual land carbon sink. Two atmospheric inversions indicate that the year 2015 had a higher than usual northern land carbon uptake in boreal spring and summer, consistent with the positive greening anomaly and strong warming. This strong uptake was, however, followed by a larger source of CO2 in the autumn. For the year 2015, enhanced autumn carbon release clearly offset the extra uptake associated with greening during the summer. This finding leads us to speculate that a long-term greening trend may foster more uptakes during the growing season, but no large increase in annual carbon sequestration. For the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, a strong transition towards a large carbon source for the last 3 months of 2015 is discovered, concomitant with El Niño development. This transition of terrestrial tropical CO2 fluxes between two consecutive seasons is the largest ever found in the inversion records. The strong transition to a carbon source in the tropics with the peak of El Niño is consistent with historical observations, but the detailed mechanisms underlying such an extreme transition remain to be elucidated.

Published
2017

23. Global carbon budget 2013

Author

Bronte Tilbrook, Glen P. Peters, Andy Wiltshire, Abdirahman M Omar, Almut Arneth, A. Arvanitis, Joanna Isobel House, Richard A. Houghton, Pieter P. Tans, Benjamin D. Stocker, Josep G. Canadell, Nathalie Lefèvre, S. van Heuven, C. Le Quéré, Steve D Jones, Christian Rödenbeck, Pierre Regnier, R. Moriarty, T. Ono, Robbie M. Andrew, Stephen Sitch, Geun-Ha Park, Louise Chini, Atul K. Jain, Philippe Ciais, Fabienne Maignan, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, S. Saito, Benjamin Pfeil, Jörg Schwinger, Gregg Marland, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Michael R. Raupach, Ian Harris, Laurent Bopp, Thomas A. Boden, Arne Körtzinger, Sönke Zaehle, Nicolas Viovy, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Pierre Friedlingstein, Rik Wanninkhof, Benjamin Poulter, Taro Takahashi, Joachim Segschneider, Scott C. Doney, Ralph F. Keeling, Robert J. Andres, Charles D. Koven, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of Exeter, Appalachian State University, University, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften (IFM-GEOMAR), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy (ASTRON), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Chemistry Department [Massachusetts Institute of Technology], Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Centre for Isotope Research [Groningen] (CIO), University of Groningen [Groningen], NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636))

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 530 Physics, Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Meteorology: 453 [VDP], MODELS, Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Oseanografi: 452 [VDP], Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, 12. Responsible consumption, Carbon cycle, Atmosphere, Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Meteorologi: 453 [VDP], carbon budget, chemistry.chemical_compound, METHANE, carbon sinks, Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Oceanography: 452 [VDP], Deforestation, CARBON DIOXIDE, ddc:550, Climate change, fossil fuels, Energy statistics, Land use change, lcsh:Environmental sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, Généralités, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Carbon dioxide, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Sink (computing)
Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ ,reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), EFF was 8.6±0.4 GtC yr-1, ELUC 0.9±0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.3±0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.5±0.5 GtC yr -1, and SLAND 2.8±0.8 GtC yr-1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7±0.5 GtC yr-1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, G ATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9±0.5 GtC yr-1, and assuming an ELUC of 1.0±0.5 GtC yr-1 (based on the 2001-2010 average), S LAND was 2.7±0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003-2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52±0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1- 3.1 %) to 9.9±0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy.With this projection, cumulative emissions ofCO2 will reach about 535±55 GtC for 1870-2013, about 70% from EFF (390±20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (145±50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al. 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP-2013-V2.3). © 2014 Author(s) CC Attribution 3.0 License., 0, SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Published
2014
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24. Global Carbon Budget 2016

Author

Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, Josep G. Canadell, Pieter P. Tans, Abdirahman M Omar, Thomas A. Boden, Leticia Barbero, Arne Körtzinger, Adrienne J. Sutton, Guido R. van der Werf, Frank J. Millero, Benjamin D. Stocker, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Louise Chini, Denis Pierrot, Scott C. Doney, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Andrew Lenton, Kim I. Currie, Nicolas Viovy, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, Sönke Zaehle, Oliver Andrews, Philippe Ciais, Peter Landschützer, Ute Schuster, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Vanessa Haverd, Simone R. Alin, Judith Hauck, Christian Rödenbeck, Atul K. Jain, Nathalie Lefèvre, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Joe R. Melton, Mario Hoppema, Benjamin Poulter, Frédéric Chevallier, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Thanos Gkritzalis, Tsuneo Ono, Etsushi Kato, Andrew C. Manning, Roland Séférian, Danica Lombardozzi, Jörg Schwinger, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, David R. Munro, Corinne Le Quéré, Anthony P. Walker, Laurent Bopp, Peter Anthoni, Bronte Tilbrook, Glen P. Peters, Andy Wiltshire, Sebastian Lienert, Are Olsen, Ralph F. Keeling, Nicolas Metzl, Robbie M. Andrew, Christine Delire, Joe Salisbury, Kees Klein Goldewijk, K. O'Brien, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Global Carbon Project (GCP), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO)-Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences [Norwich] (COAS), School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich], University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA)-University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Flanders Marine Institute, VLIZ, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, STMicroelectronics [Crolles] (ST-CROLLES), The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (CAU), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship (CSIRO), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Équipe CO2 (E-CO2), Department of Ocean Sciences, University of Miami [Coral Gables], Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Berkeley] (CEE), University of California [Berkeley], University of California-University of California, University of Wisconsin Whitewater, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] (LaRC), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Entrepôts, Représentation et Ingénierie des Connaissances (ERIC), Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon, Max-Planck-Institut, Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory (OPAL), University of New Hampshire (UNH), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Imperial College London, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington [Seattle], Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency [Sagamihara] (JAXA), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Earth and Climate, University of California (UC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego)

Subjects
Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology and Air Quality, 530 Physics, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 02 engineering and technology, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Carbon cycle, Latitude, SDG 17 - Partnerships for the Goals, Deforestation, ddc:550, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Life Science, lcsh:Environmental sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, WIMEK, business.industry, Fossil fuel, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, 021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Sink (computing), 0210 nano-technology, business
Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr−1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of −1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).

Published
2016

25. Atmospheric CO2 inversions at the mesoscale using data driven prior uncertainties. Part 1: Methodology and system evaluation

Author

Ute Karstens, Panagiotis Kountouris, Thomas Koch, Christian Rödenbeck, Christoph Gerbig, and Martin Heimann

Subjects
Meteorology, Correlation coefficient, Temporal resolution, Mesoscale meteorology, Environmental science, Inversion (meteorology), Inverse problem, Residual, Temporal scales, Atmospheric sciences, Standard deviation
Abstract

Atmospheric inversions are widely used in the optimization of surface carbon fluxes at regional scale using information from atmospheric CO2 dry mole fractions. In many studies the prior flux uncertainty applied to the inversion schemes does not reflect directly the true flux uncertainties but it is used in such a way to regularize the inverse problem. Here, we aim to implement an inversion scheme using the Jena inversion system and applying a prior flux error structure derived from a model – data residual analysis using high spatial and temporal resolution over a full year period in the European domain. We analyzed the performance of the inversion system with a synthetic experiment, where the flux constraint is derived following the same residual analysis but applied to the model-model mismatch. The synthetic study showed a quite good agreement between posterior and “true” fluxes at European/Country and annual/monthly scales. Posterior monthly and country aggregated fluxes improved their correlation coefficient with the “known truth” by 7 % compared to the prior estimates when compared to the reference, with a mean correlation of 0.92. Respectively, the ratio of the standard deviation between posterior/reference and prior/reference was also reduced by 33 % with a mean value of 1.15. We identified temporal and spatial scales where the inversion system maximizes the derived information; monthly temporal scales at around 200 km spatial resolution seem to maximize the information gain.

Published
2016

26. European land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic Pattern coupling

Author

Philippe Ciais, Christian Rödenbeck, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Pierre Friedlingstein, Steven W. Running, Ricardo M. Trigo, Ivan A. Janssens, Célia M. Gouveia, Josep Peñuelas, Shilong Piao, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), Universiteit Antwerpen = University of Antwerpen [Antwerpen], Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering, Technology and Science [Porto] (INESC TEC), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Max-Planck-Institut, Peking University [Beijing], College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Numerical Terradynamics Simulation Group, University of Montana, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), Universiteit Antwerpen [Antwerpen], and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, Science, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Biome, General Physics and Astronomy, 02 engineering and technology, Atmospheric sciences, Photosynthesis, 01 natural sciences, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Sink (geography), Article, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, geography, Climate pattern, Multidisciplinary, geography.geographical_feature_category, Water transport, Ecology, Carbon sink, General Chemistry, 15. Life on land, 020801 environmental engineering, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Soil water, Environmental science, Engineering sciences. Technology
Abstract

Large-scale climate patterns control variability in the global carbon sink. In Europe, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences vegetation activity, however the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern is known to modulate NAO strength and location. Using observation-driven and modelled data sets, we show that multi-annual variability patterns of European Net Biome Productivity (NBP) are linked to anomalies in heat and water transport controlled by the NAO–EA interplay. Enhanced NBP occurs when NAO and EA are both in negative phase, associated with cool summers with wet soils which enhance photosynthesis. During anti-phase periods, NBP is reduced through distinct impacts of climate anomalies in photosynthesis and respiration. The predominance of anti-phase years in the early 2000s may explain the European-wide reduction of carbon uptake during this period, reported in previous studies. Results show that improving the capability of simulating atmospheric circulation patterns may better constrain regional carbon sink variability in coupled carbon-climate models., The relationship between terrestrial carbon sinks and atmospheric modes of variability remains uncertain. Here, the authors show that the coupling of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East-Atlantic patterns explains variations in the European CO2 sink from 1982 to 2012.

Published
2016

27. The European land and inland water CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O balance between 2001 and 2005

Author

Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Frédéric Chevallier, Juliane Otto, P. Ciais, Annalea Lohila, P. Peylin, M. Corazza, Rene Dechow, Philippe Bousquet, Pieter Johannes Verkerk, Giuseppe Etiope, D. S. Njakou, E.-D. Schulze, Rong Wang, David Bastviken, J. Lathière, Emilio Mayorga, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Vuichard, Sophie Szopa, Martin Jung, Christian Rödenbeck, Nils Moosdorf, Peter A. Raymond, Valentin Bellassen, Jens Hartmann, Rona Thompson, Karl-Heinz Erb, Wouter Peters, Martin Wattenbach, Gwenaël Abril, Dario Papale, P. Bergamaschi, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Sönke Zaehle, Sanna Saarnio, and Robert J. Andres

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, Aquatic ecosystem, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, 15. Life on land, Carbon sequestration, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, chemistry.chemical_compound, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Effects of global warming, Greenhouse gas, Carbon dioxide, Environmental science, Terrestrial ecosystem, Ecosystem, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes
Abstract

Globally, terrestrial ecosystems have absorbed about 30% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions over the period 2000–2007 and inter-hemispheric gradients indicate that a significant fraction of terrestrial carbon sequestration must be north of the Equator. We present a compilation of the CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O balances of Europe following a dual constraint approach in which (1) a land-based balance derived mainly from ecosystem carbon inventories and (2) a land-based balance derived from flux measurements are compared to (3) the atmospheric data-based balance derived from inversions constrained by measurements of atmospheric GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations. Good agreement between the GHG balances based on fluxes (1294 ± 545 Tg C in CO2-eq yr−1), inventories (1299 ± 200 Tg C in CO2-eq yr−1) and inversions (1210 ± 405 Tg C in CO2-eq yr−1) increases our confidence that the processes underlying the European GHG budget are well understood and reasonably sampled. However, the uncertainty remains large and largely lacks formal estimates. Given that European net land to atmosphere exchanges are determined by a few dominant fluxes, the uncertainty of these key components needs to be formally estimated before efforts could be made to reduce the overall uncertainty. The net land-to-atmosphere flux is a net source for CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O, because the anthropogenic emissions by far exceed the biogenic sink strength. The dual-constraint approach confirmed that the European biogenic sink removes as much as 205 ± 72 Tg C yr−1 from fossil fuel burning from the atmosphere. However, This C is being sequestered in both terrestrial and inland aquatic ecosystems. If the C-cost for ecosystem management is taken into account, the net uptake of ecosystems is estimated to decrease by 45% but still indicates substantial C-sequestration. However, when the balance is extended from CO2 towards the main GHGs, C-uptake by terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is offset by emissions of non-CO2 GHGs. As such, the European ecosystems are unlikely to contribute to mitigating the effects of climate change.

Published
2012

28. Estimating the carbon balance of central Siberia using a landscape-ecosystem approach, atmospheric inversion and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

Author

Sten Nilsson, Ian McCallum, Christian Rödenbeck, Philippe Peylin, Shaun Quegan, C.C. Schmullius, Anatoly Shvidenko, Christian Beer, Wolfgang Lucht, and Itsuki C. Handoh

Subjects
Hydrology, Global and Planetary Change, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, Biome, Northern Hemisphere, Carbon sink, Primary production, Soil carbon, 15. Life on land, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Sink (geography), Boreal, 13. Climate action, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, Ecosystem, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract

Northern Eurasia is the largest terrestrial reservoir of carbon, and its dynamics and interactions with climate are globally significant. We present five independent estimates of the contemporary carbon balance of central Siberia using three different methodologies: a landscape-ecosystem approach (LEA) that amalgamates comprehensive vegetation, soil, hydrological and morphological information into a Geographical Information System, linked to regression-based estimates of carbon flux; two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs); and two atmospheric inversions. Apart from one of the DGVMs, all methods produce estimates of the Net Biome Productivity (NBP) that are consistent both amongst themselves and with a range of other estimates. They indicate the region to be a carbon sink with a NBP of 27.5 +/- 7.2 gC m^{-2} yr^{-1}, which is equivalent to 352 +/- 92 MtC yr^{-1} if considered representative for boreal Asia. This is comparable with fossil fuel emissions for the Russian Federation, currently estimated as 427 MtC yr^{-1}, and implies that boreal Asia does not play the major role in the northern hemisphere land sink, typically estimated to be of magnitude 1.5-2.9 GtC yr^{-1}. The LEA and DGVM approaches produce very different partitioning of NBP into its component fluxes. The DGVMs find Net Primary Production (NPP) to be nearly balanced by heterotrophic respiration, disturbance being a relatively small term pushing the system closer to equilibrium. In the LEA, heterotrophic respiration is significantly less than NPP, and disturbance plays a much larger role in the overall carbon balance. The use in the LEA of observationally-based estimates of heterotrophic respiration and fire disturbance, along with a more complete description of disturbance fluxes, suggests that the partitioning derived by the LEA is more likely, and that improved process descriptions and constraints by data are needed in the DGVMs.

Published
2010

29. History of El Niño impacts on the global carbon cycle 1957–2017: a quantification from atmospheric CO 2 data

Author

Christian Rödenbeck, Martin Heimann, Ralph F. Keeling, Sönke Zaehle, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), and INAR Physics

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, atmospheric CO2 data, SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Carbon cycle, Atmosphere, ECOSYSTEMS, Extratropical cyclone, Ecosystem, Spurious relationship, 1172 Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Biosphere, 15. Life on land, TRANSPORT, VARIABILITY, 13. Climate action, TROPICAL TEMPERATURE, Period (geology), climate sensitivity, Environmental science, Climate sensitivity, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, DIOXIDE, El Nino
Abstract

Interannual variations in the large-scale net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere were estimated for 1957–2017 from sustained measurements of atmospheric CO 2 mixing ratios. As the observations are sparse in the early decades, available records were combined into a ‘quasi-homogeneous’ dataset based on similarity in their signals, to minimize spurious variations from beginning or ending data records. During El Niño events, CO 2 is anomalously released from the tropical band, and a few months later also in the northern extratropical band. This behaviour can approximately be represented by a linear relationship of the NEE anomalies and local air temperature anomalies, with sensitivity coefficients depending on geographical location and season. The apparent climate sensitivity of global total NEE against variations in pan-tropically averaged annual air temperature slowly changed over time during the 1957–2017 period, first increasing (though less strongly than in previous studies) but then decreasing again. However, only part of this change can be attributed to actual changes in local physiological or ecosystem processes, the rest probably arising from shifts in the geographical area of dominating temperature variations. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

Published
2018

30. European CO2 fluxes from atmospheric inversions using regional and global transport models

Author

Ph. Bousquet, Christian Rödenbeck, Camilla Geels, Manuel Gloor, L. Rivier, Philippe Ciais, Ph. Peylin, Jørgen Brandt, Martin Heimann, Ute Karstens, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), University of Leeds, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, National Environmental Research Institute [Danmark] (NERI), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, Bioclimatology, Climate change, Biosphere, Carbon sink, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Carbon cycle, 13. Climate action, Ecosystem model, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Emission inventory, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Approximately half of human-induced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are taken up by the land and ocean, and the rest stays in the atmosphere, increasing the global concentration and acting as a major greenhouse-gas (GHG) climate-forcing element. Although GHG mitigation is now in the political arena, the exact spatial distribution of the land sink is not well known. In this paper, an estimation of mean European net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon fluxes for the period 1998–2001 is performed with three mesoscale and two global transport models, based on the integration of atmospheric CO2 measurements into the same Bayesian synthesis inverse approach. A special focus is given to sub-continental regions of Europe making use of newly available CO2 concentration measurements in this region. Inverse flux estimates from the five transport models are compared with independent flux estimates from four ecosystem models. All inversions detect a strong annual carbon sink in the southwestern part of Europe and a source in the northeastern part. Such a dipole, although robust with respect to the network of stations used, remains uncertain and still to be confirmed with independent estimates. Comparison of the seasonal variations of the inversion-based net land biosphere fluxes (NEP) with the NEP predicted by the ecosystem models indicates a shift of the maximum uptake period, from June in the ecosystem models to July in the inversions. This study thus improves on the understanding of the carbon cycle at sub-continental scales over Europe, demonstrating that the methodology for understanding regional carbon cycle is advancing, which increases its relevance in terms of issues related to regional mitigation policies.

Published
2010

31. Global Carbon Budget 2015

Author

Douglas Vandemark, Robert J. Andres, Charles D. Koven, Christian Rödenbeck, Benjamin Poulter, Taro Takahashi, Leticia Barbero, Yukihiro Nojiri, Fiz F. Pérez, Judith Hauck, Jörg Schwinger, S. Nakaoka, Ralph F. Keeling, Etsushi Kato, Gregor Rehder, Pieter P. Tans, Aki Murata, Thanos Gkritzalis, C. Le Quéré, Nathalie Lefèvre, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, R. Moriarty, T. Ono, Laurent Bopp, Tatiana Ilyina, Jinfeng Chang, Thomas A. Boden, Joanna Isobel House, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Roland Séférian, Atul K. Jain, Marianela Fader, Frank J. Millero, S. van Heuven, Philippe Ciais, Are Olsen, Adrienne J. Sutton, Richard A. Houghton, Louise Chini, Robbie M. Andrew, Denis Pierrot, Tobias Steinhoff, David R. Munro, Nicolas Metzl, Richard A. Feely, Peter Landschützer, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Pierre Friedlingstein, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Siv K. Lauvset, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Ute Schuster, Benjamin D. Stocker, Andrew Lenton, Ian Harris, Vassilis Kitidis, Stephen Sitch, Ning Zeng, Bronte Tilbrook, Glen P. Peters, S. Saito, Benjamin Pfeil, Andy Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, Ivan D. Lima, Karen O'Brien, Almut Arneth, Frédéric Chevallier, G. R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Josep G. Canadell, Natural Environment Research Council (UK), Norwegian Research Council, European Commission, Department of Energy (US), Helmholtz Association, Leverhulme Trust, Department of Energy and Climate Change (UK), European Research Council, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US), Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (UK), Department of Commerce (US), National Science Foundation (US), Ministry of Environment (Japan), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (France), Institut Polaire Français Paul Emile Victor, German Research Foundation, Gobierno de España, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, European Space Agency, Research Council of Norway, Swiss National Science Foundation, National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (US), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US), Leerstoel Ridder, Environmental Sciences, Sub Algemeen Math. Inst, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Oceans and Atmosphere Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], University of Exeter, Exeter Climate Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center [Oak Ridge] (CDIAC), U.S. Department of Energy [Washington] (DOE), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), University of Bristol [Bristol], Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California-University of California, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Avignon Université (AU), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Flanders Marine Institute, VLIZ, Climatic Research Unit [Norwich] (CRU), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Plymouth Marine Laboratory, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich] (IBP), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship (CSIRO), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Équipe CO2 (E-CO2), Department of Ocean Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Boulder] (ATOC), University of Colorado [Boulder], Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Météo-France [Paris], Météo France, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Imperial College London, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington [Seattle], Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Centre for Isotope Research [Groningen] (CIO), University of Groningen [Groningen], Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory, University of New Hampshire (UNH), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science [College Park] (AOSC), European Project: 603542,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,LUC4C(2013), European Project: 282672,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2011,EMBRACE(2011), European Project: 264879,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2010,CARBOCHANGE(2011), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Institute of Arctic Alpine Research [University of Colorado Boulder] (INSTAAR), Météo-France, Earth and Climate, and Geology and Geochemistry

Subjects
Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, chemistry.chemical_compound, FOSSIL-FUEL COMBUSTION, CO2 FLUX VARIABILITY, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, lcsh:Environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, Geology, Vegetation, LAND-USE CHANGE, COVER CHANGE, Carbon dioxide, Physical Sciences, INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, Meteorology and Air Quality, Life on Land, MIXED-LAYER SCHEME, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 12. Responsible consumption, Carbon cycle, Latitude, Atmospheric Sciences, Atmosphere, Deforestation, Life Science, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, ATMOSPHERIC CO2, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Science & Technology, WIMEK, 15. Life on land, Climate Action, lcsh:Geology, Geochemistry, chemistry, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science
Abstract

48 pages, 9 figures, 10 tables.-- Proyecto Carbochange, Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015)., NERC provided funding to C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, and the GCP through their International Opportunities Fund specifically to support this publication (NE/103002X/1). G. P. Peters and R. M. Andrew were supported by the Norwegian Research Council (236296). J. G. Canadell was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Programme. S. Sitch was supported by EU FP7 for funding through projects LUC4C (GA603542). R. J. Andres was supported by US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER) programmes under US Department of Energy contract DE-AC05- 00OR22725. T. A. Boden was supported by US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER) programmes under US Department of Energy contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.J. I. House was supported by the Leverhulme foundation and the EU FP7 through project LUC4C (GA603542). P. Friedlingstein was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through projects LUC4C (GA603542) and EMBRACE (GA282672). A. Arneth was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through LUC4C (603542), and the Helmholtz foundation and its ATMO programme. D. C. E. Bakker was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through project CARBOCHANGE (284879), the UK Ocean Acidification Research Programme (NE/H017046/1; funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, the Department for Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs). L. Barbero was supported by NOAA’s Ocean Acidification Program and acknowledges support for this work from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ROSES Carbon Cycle Science under NASA grant 13-CARBON13_2-0080. P. Ciais acknowledges support from the European Research Council through Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 “IMBALANCE-P”. M. Fader was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through project LUC4C (GA603542). J. Hauck was supported by the Helmholtz Postdoc Programme (Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association). R. A. Feely and A. J. Sutton were supported by the Climate Observation Division, Climate Program Office, NOAA, US Department of Commerce. A. K. Jain was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF AGS 12-43071) the US Department of Energy, Office of Science and BER programmes (DOE DE-SC0006706) and NASA LCLUC programme (NASA NNX14AD94G). E. Kato was supported by the ERTDF (S-10) from the Ministry of Environment, Japan. K. Klein Goldewijk was supported by the Dutch NWO VENI grant no. 863.14.022. S. K. Lauvset was supported by the project “Monitoring ocean acidification in Norwegian waters” from the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment. V. Kitidis was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through project CARBOCHANGE (264879). C. Koven was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy under contract no. DE-AC02-05CH11231 as part of their Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program. P. Landschützer was supported by GEOCarbon. I. T. van der Lann-Luijkx received financial support from OCW/NWO for ICOS-NL and computing time from NWO (SH-060-13). I. D. Lima was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF AGS-1048827). N. Metzl was supported by Institut National des Sciences de l’Univers (INSU) and Institut Paul Emile Victor (IPEV) for OISO cruises. D. R. Munro was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF PLR-1341647 and NSF AOAS-0944761). J. E. M. S. Nabel was supported by the German Research Foundation’s Emmy Noether Programme (PO1751/1-1) and acknowledges Julia Pongratz and Kim Naudts for their contributions. Y. Nojiri and S. Nakaoka were supported by the Global Environment Research Account for National Institutes (1432) by the Ministry of Environment of Japan. A. Olsen appreciates support from the Norwegian Research Council (SNACS, 229752). F. F. Pérez were supported by BOCATS (CTM2013-41048-P) project co-founded by the Spanish government and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER). B. Pfeil was supported through the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme AtlantOS under grant agreement no. 633211. D. Pierrot was supported by NOAA through the Climate Observation Division of the Climate Program Office. B. Poulter was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through GEOCarbon. G. Rehder was supported by BMBF (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung) through project ICOS, grant no. 01LK1224D. U. Schuster was supported by NERC UKOARP (NE/H017046/1), NERC RAGANRoCC (NE/K002473/1), the European Space Agency (ESA) OceanFlux Evolution project, and EU FP7 CARBOCHANGE (264879). T. Steinhoff was supported by ICOS-D (BMBF FK 01LK1101C) and EU FP7 for funding through project CARBOCHANGE (264879). J. Schwinger was supported by the Research Council of Norway through project EVA (229771). T. Takahashi was supported by grants from NOAA and the Comer Education and Science Foundation. B. Tilbrook was supported by the Australian Department of Environment and the Integrated Marine Observing System. B. D. Stocker was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation and FP7 funding through project EMBRACE (282672). S. van Heuven was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through project CARBOCHANGE (264879). G. R. van der Werf was supported by the European Research Council (280061). A. Wiltshire was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and EU FP7 Funding through project LUC4C (603542). S. Zaehle was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the Eu ropean Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (QUINCY; grant agreement no. 647204). ISAM (PI: Atul K. Jain) simulations were carried out at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), which is supported by the US DOE under contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. Contributions from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography were supported under DoE grant DE-SC0012167 and by Schmidt Philanthropies. This is NOAA-PMEL contribution number 4400

Published
2015

32. Atmospheric CO2, d(O2/N2), APO and oxidative ratios from aircraft flask samples over Fyodorovskoye, Western Russia

Author

S. van der Laan, A. Varlagin, Harro A. J. Meijer, I. Shironya, Christian Rödenbeck, M. Ramonet, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, R. E. M. Neubert, Centre for Isotope Research [Groningen] (CIO), University of Groningen [Groningen], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences [Moscow] (RAS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-RAMCES (ICOS-RAMCES), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Isotope Research

Subjects
Delta, Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, Atmospheric Science, Meteorology and Air Quality, air, Atmospheric sciences, Oxidative ratio, Carbon cycle, Global carbon cycle, Troposphere, chemistry.chemical_compound, carbon-cycle, medicine, 14. Life underwater, southern taiga, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, WIMEK, variability, tower, Sampling (statistics), o-2/n-2, siberia, climatology, Seasonality, medicine.disease, Atmospheric delta(O-2/N-2), Boundary layer, Amplitude, APO, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Carbon dioxide, network, Atmospheric CO2, Environmental science, oxygen
Abstract

We present atmospheric CO2 and delta(O-2/N-2) from flask samples taken on board aircraft over Fyodorovskoye (56 degrees 27'N, 32 degrees 55'E) at heights of 3000 m and 100 m between 1998 and 2008. The long-term trends for CO2 and delta(O-2/N-2) are similar for both sampling heights, and also similar to observations from marine background station Mace Head (Ireland) and coastal station Lutjewad (the Netherlands). The seasonal CO2 amplitude at 100 m was almost twice as large as at 3000 m and a phase shift in the seasonality of about two weeks between both sampling heights was observed. This indicates a dominant influence on CO2 in the boundary layer from the regional biosphere which is confirmed by analysis of the delta(O-2/N-2) to CO2 oxidative ratio (OR). Together with simulations with the TM3 model, our data suggest that the observed OR of -1.7 +/- 0.2 in the free troposphere is mainly driven by exchange processes with the ocean. Within the boundary layer an OR of -0.89 +/- 0.12 was observed which supports the results of other recent studies suggesting the commonly used value of -1.1 for biospheric OR is likely too low. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Published
2014

33. Terrestrial Gross Carbon Dioxide Uptake: Global Distribution and Covariation with Climate

Author

Keith W. Oleson, Christian Beer, Mark R. Lomas, Dennis D. Baldocchi, Alessandro Cescatti, Anders Lindroth, Philippe Ciais, Dario Papale, F. Ian Woodward, Gordon B. Bonan, Christian Rödenbeck, Elmar Veenendaal, Enrico Tomelleri, Olivier Roupsard, Hank A. Margolis, M. Altaf Arain, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Markus Reichstein, Nuno Carvalhais, Martin Jung, Nicolas Viovy, Gitta Lasslop, Alberte Bondeau, Christopher M. Williams, Systems Ecology, Department of Biogeochemical Integration [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia = School of Science & Technology (FCT NOVA), Universidade Nova de Lisboa = NOVA University Lisbon (NOVA), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, McMaster University [Hamilton, Ontario], Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management [Berkeley] (ESPM), University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Climate Change Unit [Ispra], JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC)-European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Department of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences [Lund], Lund University [Lund], Department of Animal and Plant Sciences [Sheffield], University of Sheffield [Sheffield], Universiteit Antwerpen = University of Antwerpen [Antwerpen], Centre d'Etude de la Forêt (Faculté de foresterie, de géographie et de géomatique), Université Laval [Québec] (ULaval), Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza - Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE), Nature Conservation and Plant Ecology Group, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, DIBAF, University of Tuscia, Via S.C. de Lellis, 01100 Viterbo, Italy, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of California [Berkeley], University of California-University of California, and Universiteit Antwerpen [Antwerpen]

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate, Flux, forêt tropicale, Atmospheric sciences, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Trees, FluxNet, K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Photosynthesis, Savane, database, Multidisciplinary, Geography, Ecology, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, Temperature, Uncertainty, Biosphere, Vegetation, Plants, PE&RC, products, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Plantenecologie en Natuurbeheer, P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières, ecosystems, Engineering sciences. Technology, Écosystème, biosphere, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, Eddy covariance, Climatic Processes, Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, 010603 evolutionary biology, Models, Biological, Oxygen Consumption, Artificial Intelligence, vegetation, fraction, Ecosystem, Precipitation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Changement climatique, atmospheric co2, Models, Statistical, WIMEK, sulfide, Atmosphere, Primary production, Water, Modèle de simulation, 15. Life on land, Carbon Dioxide, Végétation, Plant Leaves, radiation, 13. Climate action, network, Neural Networks, Computer, Cycle du carbone, Dioxyde de carbone
Abstract

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the largest global CO2 °ux driving several ecosystem functions. We provide an observation- based estimate of this °ux at 123§8 PgCa¡1 using eddy covariance °ux data and various diagnostic models. Tropical forests and sa- vannahs account for 60%. GPP over 40% of the vegetated land is associated with precipitation. State-of-the-art process-oriented bio- sphere models used for climate predictions exhibit a large between- model variation of GPP's latitudinal patterns and show higher spa- tial correlations between GPP and precipitation, suggesting the ex- istence of missing processes or feedback mechanisms which attenu- ate the vegetation response to climate. Our estimates of spatially distributed GPP and its co-variation with climate can help improve coupled climate-carbon cycle process models., JRC.H.2-Air and Climate

Published
2010

34. TransCom model simulations of hourly atmospheric CO2: Analysis of synoptic-scale variations for the period 2002-2003

Author

Ute Karstens, Yosuke Niwa, Song-Miao Fan, Sander Houweling, Jørgen Brandt, Christian Rödenbeck, J. Kleist, Alex Vermeulen, Camilla Geels, C. Aulagnier, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Lori Bruhwiler, Philippe Bousquet, G. Pieterse, Takashi Maki, Maarten Krol, Z. Zhu, L. Rivier, Masaki Satoh, Shamil Maksyutov, Ryo Onishi, S. Taguchi, Shian-Jiann Lin, François Delage, Philip Cameron-Smith, Robert Vautard, Rachel M. Law, Wouter Peters, Masayuki Takigawa, Stephan R. Kawa, Jesper H. Christensen, A. S. Denning, S. Serrar, Ian Baker, R. S. Lokupitiya, Dan Bergmann, Ryoichi Imasu, and Prabir K. Patra

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Simulation modeling, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Current (stream), Atmospheric measurements, Amplitude, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Synoptic scale meteorology, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental science, Satellite, Image resolution, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract

The ability to reliably estimate CO2 fluxes from current in situ atmospheric CO2 measurements and future satellite CO2 measurements is dependent on transport model performance at synoptic and shorter timescales. The TransCom continuous experiment was designed to evaluate the performance of forward transport model simulations at hourly, daily, and synoptic timescales, and we focus on the latter two in this paper. Twenty-five transport models or model variants submitted hourly time series of nine predetermined tracers (seven for CO2) at 280 locations. We extracted synoptic-scale variability from daily averaged CO2 time series using a digital filter and analyzed the results by comparing them to atmospheric measurements at 35 locations. The correlations between modeled and observed synoptic CO2 variabilities were almost always largest with zero time lag and statistically significant for most models and most locations. Generally, the model results using diurnally varying land fluxes were closer to the observations compared to those obtained using monthly mean or daily average fluxes, and winter was often better simulated than summer. Model results at higher spatial resolution compared better with observations, mostly because these models were able to sample closer to the measurement site location. The amplitude and correlation of model-data variability is strongly model and season dependent. Overall similarity in modeled synoptic CO2 variability suggests that the first-order transport mechanisms are fairly well parameterized in the models, and no clear distinction was found between the meteorological analyses in capturing the synoptic-scale dynamics.

Published
2008

35. Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 Sink Due to Recent Climate Change

Author

Antony Gomez, Nicolas Metzl, Michel Ramonet, Ray L. Langenfelds, Nathan P. Gillett, Thomas J. Conway, Casper Labuschagne, Martin Heimann, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Takakiyo Nakazawa, Christian Rödenbeck, Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-RAMCES (ICOS-RAMCES), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies [Sendai], Tohoku University [Sendai], Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL)

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, geography, Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere, Multidisciplinary, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Climate change, Global change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Sink (geography), Carbon cycle, chemistry.chemical_compound, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Carbon dioxide, Trend surface analysis, Environmental science, 14. Life underwater, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Based on observed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration and an inverse method, we estimate that the Southern Ocean sink of CO 2 has weakened between 1981 and 2004 by 0.08 petagrams of carbon per year per decade relative to the trend expected from the large increase in atmospheric CO 2 . We attribute this weakening to the observed increase in Southern Ocean winds resulting from human activities, which is projected to continue in the future. Consequences include a reduction of the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink of CO 2 in the short term (about 25 years) and possibly a higher level of stabilization of atmospheric CO 2 on a multicentury time scale.

Published
2007

36. Insights from simulations with high-resolution transport and process models on sampling of the atmosphere for constraining midlatitude land carbon sinks

Author

Ute Karstens, Manuel Gloor, Christian Rödenbeck, and Martin Heimann

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, Spatial correlation, Meteorology, Planetary boundary layer, Soil Science, High resolution, Aquatic Science, Oceanography, Atmospheric sciences, Sink (geography), Troposphere, Geochemistry and Petrology, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Ecology, Autocorrelation, Paleontology, Carbon sink, Forestry, Geophysics, Space and Planetary Science, Middle latitudes, Environmental science
Abstract

1

Published
2006

37. Comparing CO 2 retrieved from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder with model predictions: Implications for constraining surface fluxes and lower-to-upper troposphere transport

Author

Yogesh K. Tiwari, Frédéric Chevallier, Christian Rödenbeck, Manuel Gloor, Bobby H. Braswell, Martin Heimann, Richard Engelen, Philippe Peylin, S. Körner, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space [Durham] (EOS), University of New Hampshire (UNH), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Soil Science, Aquatic Science, Infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Oceanography, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Latitude, Troposphere, Geochemistry and Petrology, Observatory, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology, Atmospheric sounding, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Ecology, Northern Hemisphere, Paleontology, Forestry, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Space and Planetary Science, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, Environmental science, Satellite
Abstract

Large-scale carbon sources and sinks can be estimated by combining atmospheric CO2 concentration data with atmospheric transport inverse modeling. This approach has been limited by sparse spatiotemporal tropospheric sampling. CO2 estimates from space using observations on recently launched satellites (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)), or platforms to be launched (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)) have the potential to fill some of these gaps. Here we assess the realism of initial AIRS-based mid-to-upper troposphere CO2 estimates from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts by comparing them with simulations of two transport models (TM3 and Laboratoire Meteorologie Dynamique Zoom (LMDZ)) forced with one data-based set of surface fluxes. The simulations agree closer with one another than with the retrievals. Nevertheless, there is good overall agreement between all estimates of seasonal cycles and north-south gradients within the latitudinal band extending from 30 degrees S to 30 degrees N, but not outside this region. At smaller spatial scales, there is a contrast in the satellite-based retrievals above continents versus above oceans that is absent in the model predictions. Hovmoeller diagrams indicate that in the models, high Northern Hemisphere winter CO2 concentrations propagate toward the tropical upper troposphere via Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, while in retrievals, elevated winter CO2 appears instantaneously throughout the Northern Hemisphere. This raises questions about lower-to-upper troposphere transport pathways. Prerequisites for use of retrievals to provide an improved constraint on surface fluxes are therefore further improvements in retrievals and better understanding/validation of lower-to-upper troposphere transport and its modeling. This calls for more independent upper troposphere transport tracer data like SF6 and CO2. [References: 41]

Published
2006

38. CO2 flux history 1982–2001 inferred from atmospheric data using a global inversion of atmospheric transport

Author

Manuel Gloor, Christian Rödenbeck, Sander Houweling, and Martin Heimann

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, La Niña, Climatology, Middle latitudes, Spatial ecology, Northern Hemisphere, Environmental science, Radiative forcing, Atmospheric sciences, Longitude, Southern Hemisphere, Latitude
Abstract

Based on about 20 years of NOAA/CMDL's atmospheric CO2 concentration data and a global atmospheric tracer transport model, we estimate interannual variations and spatial patterns of surface CO2 fluxes in the period 01/1982-12/2000, by using a time-dependent Bayesian inversion technique. To increase the reliability of the estimated temporal features, particular care is exerted towards the selection of data records that are homogeneous in time. Fluxes are estimated on a grid-scale resolution (~8º latitude x 10º longitude), constrained by a-priori spatial correlations, and then integrated over different sets of regions. The transport model is driven by interannually varying re-analyzed meteorological fields. We make consistent use of unsmoothed measurements. In agreement with previous studies, land fluxes are estimated to be the main driver of interannual variations in the global CO2 fluxes, with the pace predominantly being set by the El Niño/La Niña contrast. An exception is a 2-3 year period of increased sink of atmospheric carbon after Mt. Pinatubo's volcanic eruption in 1991. The largest differences in fluxes between El Niño and La Niña are found in the tropical land regions, the main share being due to the Amazon basin. The flux variations for the Post-Pinatubo period, the 1997/1998 El Niño, and the 1999 La Niña events are exploited to investigate relations between CO2 fluxes and climate forcing. A rough comparison points to anomalies in precipitation as a prominent climate factor for short-term variability of tropical land fluxes, both through their role on NPP and through promoting fire in case of droughts. Some large flux anomalies seem to be directly related to large biomass burning events recorded by satellite observation. Global ocean carbon uptake shows a trend similar to the one expected if ocean uptake scales proportional to the anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 perturbation. In contrast to temporal variations, the longterm spatial flux distribution can be inferred with lesser robustness only. The tentative pattern estimated by the present inversion exhibits a northern hemisphere land sink on the order of 0.4 PgC/yr (for 01/1996-12/1999, non-fossil fuel carbon only) that is mainly confined to North America. Southern hemisphere land regions are carbon neutral, while the tropical land regions are taking up carbon (e.g., at a rate of 0.8 PgC/yr during 01/1996-12/1999). Ocean fluxes show larger uptake in the Northern mid to high latitudes than in the Southern mid latitude regions, in contrast to the estimates by Takahashi et al. (1999) based on in-situ measurements. On a regional basis, results that differ the most from previous estimates are large carbon uptake of 1 to 1.5 PgC/yr by the Southern temperate Pacific ocean region, weak outgassing from the Southern ocean, and a carbon source from eastern Europe.

Published
2003

39. Erratum: Atmospheric verification of anthropogenic CO2 emission trends

Author

Robert J. Andres, Ray L. Langenfelds, Marcel van der Schoot, Christian Rödenbeck, Ann R. Stavert, Roger J. Francey, C. E. Allison, Cathy M. Trudinger, L. Paul Steele, Rachel M. Law, and Paul B. Krummel

Subjects
Section (typography), Environmental science, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Paragraph, Atmospheric sciences, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract

Nature Clim. Change 3, 520–524 (2013); published online 10 February 2013; corrected after print 20 June 2013. In the version of this Article originally published, in the 'Atmospheric versus emission trends' section, the second sentence of the third paragraph should have started “An underestimate of FF+LUC, and/or decreased atmospheric sinks.

Published
2013

40. Response to Comments on 'Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO 2 Sink Due to Recent Climate Change'

Author

Casper Labuschagne, Erik T. Buitenhuis, Thomas J. Conway, Michel Ramonet, Takakiyo Nakazawa, Corinne Le Quéré, Nicolas Metzl, Christian Rödenbeck, Nathan P. Gillett, Martin Heimann, Ray L. Langenfelds, Antony Gomez, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich], Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), South African Weather Service (SAWS), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-RAMCES (ICOS-RAMCES), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies [Sendai], Tohoku University [Sendai], Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Climatic Research Unit [Norwich] (CRU), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, geography, Multidisciplinary, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Sink (geography), chemistry.chemical_compound, Oceanography, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Carbon dioxide, Environmental science, 14. Life underwater, Saturation (chemistry), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

We estimated a weakening of the Southern Ocean carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sink since 1981 relative to the trend expected from the large increase in atmospheric CO 2 . We agree with Law et al . that network choice increases the uncertainty of trend estimates but argue that their network of five locations is too small to be reliable. A future reversal of Southern Ocean CO 2 saturation as suggested by Zickfeld et al . is possible, but only at high atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and the effect would be temporary.

Published
2008

41. Can the envisaged reductions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions be detected by atmospheric observations?

Author

Christian Rödenbeck and Ingeborg Levin

Subjects
Greenhouse Effect, Fossil Fuels, Meteorology, Atmospheric sciences, Troposphere, chemistry.chemical_compound, Germany, media_common.cataloged_instance, Carbon Radioisotopes, European Union, European union, Greenhouse effect, Radiocarbon analyses, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, media_common, Original Paper, Air Pollutants, business.industry, Fossil fuel, Carbon offset, General Medicine, chemistry, Carbon dioxide, Greenhouse gas, Kyoto protocol, Environmental science, Kyoto Protocol, business
Abstract

The lower troposphere is an excellent receptacle, which integrates anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions over large areas. Therefore, atmospheric concentration observations over populated regions would provide the ultimate proof if sustained emissions changes have occurred. The most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO(2)), also shows large natural concentration variations, which need to be disentangled from anthropogenic signals to assess changes in associated emissions. This is in principle possible for the fossil fuel CO(2) component (FFCO(2)) by high-precision radiocarbon ((14)C) analyses because FFCO(2) is free of radiocarbon. Long-term observations of (14)CO(2) conducted at two sites in south-western Germany do not yet reveal any significant trends in the regional fossil fuel CO(2) component. We rather observe strong inter-annual variations, which are largely imprinted by changes of atmospheric transport as supported by dedicated transport model simulations of fossil fuel CO(2). In this paper, we show that, depending on the remoteness of the site, changes of about 7-26% in fossil fuel emissions in respective catchment areas could be detected with confidence by high-precision atmospheric (14)CO(2) measurements when comparing 5-year averages if these inter-annual variations were taken into account. This perspective constitutes the urgently needed tool for validation of fossil fuel CO(2) emissions changes in the framework of the Kyoto protocol and successive climate initiatives.

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42. Compensatory water effects link yearly global land CO2 sink changes to temperature

Author

Nicolas Viovy, Ying-Ping Wang, Gianluca Tramontana, Kazuhito Ichii, Almut Arneth, Christopher R. Schwalm, Markus Reichstein, Dario Papale, Philippe Ciais, Sönke Zaehle, Fabian Gans, Ning Zeng, Chris Huntingford, Botond Ráduly, Etsushi Kato, Anders Ahlström, Stephen Sitch, Ulrich Weber, Pierre Friedlingstein, Martin Jung, Ben Poulter, Gustau Camps-Valls, Christian Rödenbeck, Atul K. Jain, Department of Biogeochemical Integration [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität = Friedrich Schiller University Jena [Jena, Germany], The Woods Hole Research Center, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), University of Exeter, Lund University [Lund], Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Image Processing Laboratory (IPL), Universitat de València (UV), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-Food and Forest Systems, Università degli studi della Tuscia [Viterbo], NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Sapientia Hungarian University of Transylvania, Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Institute of Atmospheric Physics [Beijing] (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), European Project: 283080,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2011,GEOCARBON(2011), European Project: 640176,H2020,H2020-EO-2014,BACI(2015), European Project: 647204,H2020,ERC-2014-CoG,QUINCY(2015), European Project: 603542,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,LUC4C(2013), European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), European Project: 647423,H2020,ERC-2014-CoG,SEDAL(2015), Exeter Climate Systems, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and University of Tuscia

Subjects
Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere, geography, Multidisciplinary, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Eddy covariance, Carbon sink, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 02 engineering and technology, 15. Life on land, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Sink (geography), 020801 environmental engineering, Carbon cycle, 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, Terrestrial ecosystem, Ecosystem, Temporal scales, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems1–3. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales3–14. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data15 and process-based models16,17 to investigate the effect of changes in temperature and water availability on gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at local and global scales. We find that water availability is the dominant driver of the local interannual variability in GPP and TER. To a lesser extent this is true also for NEE at the local scale, but when integrated globally, temporal NEE variability is mostly driven by temperature fluctuations. We suggest that this apparent paradox can be explained by two compensatory water effects. Temporal waterdriven GPP and TER variations compensate locally, dampening water-driven NEE variability. Spatial water availability anomalies also compensate, leaving a dominant temperature signal in the yearto- year fluctuations of the land carbon sink. These findings help to reconcile seemingly contradictory reports regarding the importance of temperature and water in controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon balance3–6,9,11,12,14. Our study indicates that spatial climate covariation drives the global carbon cycle response.

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43. Etsushi Kato 29 , Markus Kautz 30 , Ralph F. Keeling 31

Author

Nicolas Vuichard, Markus Kautz, Atul K. Jain, Richard A. Houghton, Anthony P. Walker, Bronte Tilbrook, Glen P. Peters, Christian Rödenbeck, Christopher W. Hunt, Nicolas Metzl, Andy Wiltshire, Dan Zhu, Sebastian Lienert, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Benjamin Poulter, Judith Hauck, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Benjamin D. Stocker, Thomas Gasser, Ralph F. Keeling, Vivek K. Arora, Etsushi Kato, Gregor Rehder, Andrew C. Manning, X. Antonio Padin, Ivan D. Lima, Andrew Lenton, Steven van Heuven, Jessica N. Cross, Leticia Barbero, Robbie M. Andrew, Nathalie Lefèvre, Denis Pierrot, Roland Séférian, Yukihiro Nojiri, Ingunn Skjelvan, Meike Becker, Guido R. van der Werf, George C. Hurtt, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Stephen Sitch, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Ian Harris, Pieter P. Tans, Robert B. Jackson, Andrew J. Watson, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas A. Boden, Arne Körtzinger, Frank J. Millero, Benjamin Pfeil, Oliver Andrews, Corinne Le Quéré, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Nicolas Viovy, Anna Peregon, Catherine E Cosca, Vanessa Haverd, Richard Betts, Josep G. Canadell, Janet J. Reimer, Louise Chini, Kim I. Currie, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Tatiana Ilyina, Peter Landschützer, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Pierre Friedlingstein, Julia Pongratz, David R. Munro, Danica Lombardozzi, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, Sönke Zaehle, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Climate Change Science Institute [Oak Ridge] (CCSI), Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC-UT-Battelle, LLC, ESRL Chemical Sciences Division [Boulder] (CSD), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Climatic Research Unit, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory, University of New Hampshire (UNH), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (CAU), Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM), Department of Ocean Sciences, University of Miami [Coral Gables], Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa (INESC-ID), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST)-Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), University of Wisconsin Whitewater, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Montana State University (MSU), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE-CRC), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan] (HUST), Environmental Sciences, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California (UC), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Earth and Climate

Subjects
Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Epidemiology, Earth science, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, FOSSIL-FUEL COMBUSTION, chemistry.chemical_compound, 11. Sustainability, ddc:550, Energy statistics, DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, lcsh:Environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, lcsh:QE1-996.5, VEGETATION MODEL, Biosphere, Carbon dioxide, Meteorology and Air Quality, Bioinformatica & Diermodellen, 530 Physics, MIXED-LAYER SCHEME, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), chemistry.chemical_element, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], INTERNATIONAL-TRADE, 12. Responsible consumption, Carbon cycle, ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 UPTAKE, Deforestation, Bio-informatics & Animal models, Life Science, Epidemiology, Bio-informatics & Animal models, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, ATMOSPHERIC CO2, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Epidemiologie, LAND-COVER CHANGE, WIMEK, business.industry, Fossil fuel, 15. Life on land, Earth system science, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Epidemiologie, Bioinformatica & Diermodellen, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Physical geography, Sink (computing), business, Carbon
Abstract

44 pages, 9 tables, 9 figures.-- Corinne Le Quéré ... et al.-- This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License, Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017)

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44. NEE estimates 2006–2019 over Europe from a pre-operational ensemble-inversion system

Author

Thomas Koch, Michal Galkowski, Saqr Munassar, Christoph Gerbig, Sophia Walther, Christian Rödenbeck, and Kai Uwe Totsche

Subjects
Flux (metallurgy), 13. Climate action, Soil water, Environmental science, Primary production, Biosphere, Inversion (meteorology), Terrestrial ecosystem, 15. Life on land, Sink (computing), Atmospheric sciences, Standard deviation
Abstract

3-hourly Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) is estimated at spatial scales of 0.25 degrees over the European continent, based on the pre-operational inverse modelling framework CarboScope Regional (CSR) for the years 2006 to 2019. To assess the uncertainty originating from the choice of a-priori flux models and observational data, ensembles of inversions were produced using three terrestrial ecosystem flux models, two ocean flux models, and three sets of atmospheric stations. We find that the station set ensemble accounts for 61 % of the total spread of the annually aggregated fluxes over the full domain when varying all these elements, while the biosphere and ocean ensembles resulted in much smaller contributions to the spread of 28 % and 11 %, respectively. These percentages differ over the specific regions of Europe, based on the availability of atmospheric data. For example, the spread of the biosphere ensemble is prone to be larger in regions that are less constrained by CO2 measurements. We further investigate the unprecedented increase of temperature and simultaneous reduction of Soil Water Content (SWC) observed in 2018 and 2019. We find that NEE estimates during these two years suggest an impact of drought occurrences represented by the reduction of Net Primary Productivity (NPP), which in turn lead to less CO2 uptake across Europe in 2018 and 2019, resulting in anomalies up to 0.13 and 0.07 PgC yr-1 above the climatological mean, respectively. Annual temperature anomalies also exceeded the climatological mean by 0.46 °C in 2018 and by 0.56 °C in 2019, while standardized-precipitation-evaporation-index (SPEI) anomalies declined to −0.20 and −0.05 SPEI units below the climatological mean in both 2018 and 2019, respectively. Therefore, the biogenic fluxes showed a weaker sink of CO2 in both 2018 and 2019 (−0.22±0.05 and −0.28±0.06 PgC yr-1, respectively) in comparison with the mean −0.36±0.07 PgC yr-1 calculated over the full analysed period (i.e., fourteen years). These translate into a continental-wide reduction of the annual sink by 39 % and 22 %, respectively, larger than the typical year-to-year standard deviation of 19 % observed over the full period.

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45. Unusual characteristics of the carbon cycle during the 2015−2016 El Niño

Author

Ana Bastos, Kai Wang, Stephen W. Pacala, Hao Xu, Shilong Piao, Philippe Ciais, Jiafu Mao, Ralph F. Keeling, Xiaoying Shi, Frédéric Chevallier, Anping Chen, Chris Huntingford, Xuhui Wang, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environmental Sciences Division [Oak Ridge], Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC-UT-Battelle, LLC, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Department of Biogeochemical Integration [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology [Princeton], Princeton University, Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), U.S. Department of Energy, USDOE: DE‐AC05‐00OR22725, Office of Science, SC, Biological and Environmental Research, BER, National Natural Science Foundation of China, NSFC: 41861134036, 41988101, We thank Dr. Pieter Tans and Dr. Ed Dlugokencky for providing the CO mole fraction data. We also thank the TRENDYv6 modelers for their simulations and Dr. Christian Rödenbeck for the Jena CarboScope inversion datasets. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 41861134036 and 41988101) and an Oak Ridge National Lab subcontract (grant no. 4000167205). J. Mao and X. Shi were supported by the Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computation Science Focus Area and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Scientific Focus Area project in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division of the Biological and Environmental Research (BER) office in the US Department of Energy Office of Science. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under contract no. DE‐AC05‐00OR22725. 2, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), and University of California-University of California

Subjects
0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, chemistry.chemical_element, Atmospheric sciences, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Ecology and Environment, Carbon Cycle, Carbon cycle, atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR), Meteorology and Climatology, medicine, Environmental Chemistry, Ecosystem, El Niño, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, Atmosphere, Anomaly (natural sciences), Northern Hemisphere, Carbon Dioxide, 15. Life on land, Seasonality, medicine.disease, Carbon, northern terrestrial ecosystems, Productivity (ecology), chemistry, 13. Climate action, CO2 seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA), soil water deficit, Environmental science, Terrestrial ecosystem, net biome productivity (NBP)
Abstract

International audience; The 2015−2016 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, but its influence on the carbon balance is less clear. Using Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO2 observations, we found both detrended atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) and CO2 seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of 2015−2016 were much higher than that of other El Niño events. The simultaneous high CGR and SCA were unusual, because our analysis of long-term CO2 observations at Mauna Loa revealed a significantly negative correlation between CGR and SCA. Atmospheric inversions and terrestrial ecosystem models indicate strong northern land carbon uptake during spring but substantially reduced carbon uptake (or high emissions) during early autumn, which amplified SCA but also resulted in a small anomaly in annual carbon uptake of northern ecosystems in 2015−2016. This negative ecosystem carbon uptake anomaly in early autumn was primarily due to soil water deficits and more litter decomposition caused by enhanced spring productivity. Our study demonstrates a decoupling between seasonality and annual carbon cycle balance in northern ecosystems over 2015−2016, which is unprecedented in the past five decades of El Niño events.

Published
2021

46. Gridded fossil CO2 emissions and related O2 combustion consistent with national inventories 1959–2018

Author

Philippe Ciais, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Glen P. Peters, Prabir K. Patra, Matthew W. Jones, Frédéric Chevallier, Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Anthony J. De-Gol, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Division of Chemistry, CHE, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, H2020: 776186, 776810, 821003, Royal Society: RP\ R1\191063, The authors thank Pierre Friedlingstein, Christian Rödenbeck, Wouter Peters and Ingrid Luijkx for their helpful feedback on the manuscript. We further thank Wouter Peters for his part in securing the funding of the H2020 ‘CHE’ project. We thank Penelope Pickers, Julia Steinbach and Nicolas Mayot for their insights regarding the available data on oxidative ratios. This work was principally funded by European Commission Horizon 2020 (H2020) ‘CHE’ project (grant no. 776186). M.W.J., F.C., P.C. and G.J.-M. were funded by the H2020 ‘CHE’ project (grant no. 776186). G.P.P., R.M.A, P.C., F.C., G.J.-M. and M.W.J. were funded by the H2020 ‘VERIFY’ project (no. 776810). A.J.D.-G., R.M.A. and G.P.P. were funded by the H2020 ‘4 C’ project (no. 821003). G.P.P. was funded by the H2020 PARIS REINFORCE project (no. 820846). C.L.Q. was funded by the Royal Society (no. RP\ R1\191063). We thank the UEA HPC team for support., M.W.J., C.L.Q., G.P.P. and R.M.A. designed the methodology with input from G.J.-M. G.J.-M. provided supplemental layers of the EDGAR dataset. R.M.A. and G.P.P. provided the GCB-NAE dataset. C.L.Q. and M.W.J. implemented the HCDD correction. M.W.J. completed all other formal analyses, technical validation and data visualisation and wrote the original draft of the article. M.W.J. wrote the code. A.J.D.-G. optimised the code. This work was made possible by prior funding from the Global Carbon Project. All authors contributed to review and editing of the article., and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
Statistics and Probability, Data Descriptor, Atmospheric chemistry, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Science, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], chemistry.chemical_element, Library and Information Sciences, CO2 emissions, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, Combustion, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Education, chemistry.chemical_compound, Natural gas, Co2 concentration, Coal, Climate and Earth system modelling, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, business.industry, Fossil fuel, Carbon cycle, Computer Science Applications, National Inventories, chemistry, Carbon project, 13. Climate action, Carbon dioxide, Environmental science, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, business, Carbon, Information Systems
Abstract

Quantification of CO2 fluxes at the Earth’s surface is required to evaluate the causes and drivers of observed increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Atmospheric inversion models disaggregate observed variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration to variability in CO2 emissions and sinks. They require prior constraints fossil CO2 emissions. Here we describe GCP-GridFED (version 2019.1), a gridded fossil emissions dataset that is consistent with the national CO2 emissions reported by the Global Carbon Project (GCP). GCP-GridFEDv2019.1 provides monthly fossil CO2 emissions estimates for the period 1959–2018 at a spatial resolution of 0.1°. Estimates are provided separately for oil, coal and natural gas, for mixed international bunker fuels, and for the calcination of limestone during cement production. GCP-GridFED also includes gridded estimates of O2 uptake based on oxidative ratios for oil, coal and natural gas. It will be updated annually and made available for atmospheric inversions contributing to GCP global carbon budget assessments, thus aligning the prior constraints on top-down fossil CO2 emissions with the bottom-up estimates compiled by the GCP., Measurement(s) carbon dioxide emission • oxygen combustion Technology Type(s) digital curation • computational modeling technique Factor Type(s) annual and monthly fossil carbon dioxide emissions estimates • annual and monthly oxygen combustion estimates Sample Characteristic - Environment climate system Sample Characteristic - Location global Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.13333643

Published
2021

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