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Tropical leaf phenology—particularly its variability at the tree-crown scale—dominates the seasonality of carbon and water fluxes. However, given enormous species diversity, accurate means of monitoring leaf phenology in tropical forests is still lacking. Time series of the Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) metric derived from tower-based red–greenblue (RGB) phenocams have been widely used to monitor leaf phenology in temperate forests, but its application in the tropics remains problematic. To improve monitoring of tropical phenology, we explored the use of a deep learning model (i.e. superpixel-based Residual Networks 50, SP-ResNet50) to automatically differentiate leaves from non-leaves in phenocam images and to derive leaf fraction at the tree-crown scale. To evaluate our model, we used a year of data from six phenocams in two contrasting forests in Panama. We first built a comprehensive library of leaf and non-leaf pixels across various acquisition times, exposure conditions and specific phenocams. We then divided this library into training and testing components. We evaluated the model at three levels: 1) superpixel level with a testing set, 2) crown level by comparing the model-derived leaf fractions with those derived using image-specific supervised classification, and 3) temporally using all daily images to assess the diurnal stability of the model-derived leaf fraction. Finally, we compared the model-derived leaf fraction phenology with leaf phenology derived from GCC. Our results show that: 1) the SP-ResNet50 model accurately differentiates leaves from non-leaves (overall accuracy of 93%) and is robust across all three levels of evaluations; 2) the model accurately quantifies leaf fraction phenology across tree-crowns and forest ecosystems; and 3) the combined use of leaf fraction and GCC helps infer the timing of leaf emergence, maturation and senescence, critical information for modeling photosynthetic seasonality of tropical forests. Collectively, this study offers an improved means for automated tropical phenology monitoring using phenocams.

Leaf mass per area (LMA) is a key plant trait, reflecting tradeoffs between leaf photosynthetic function, longevity, and structural investment. Capturing spatial and temporal variability in LMA has been a long-standing goal of ecological research and is an essential component for advancing Earth system models. Despite the substantial variation in LMA within and across Earth's biomes, an efficient, globally generalizable approach to predict LMA is still lacking. We explored the capacity to predict LMA from leaf spectra across much of the global LMA trait space, with values ranging from 17 to 393 g m-2 . Our dataset contained leaves from a wide range of biomes from the high Arctic to the tropics, included broad- and needleleaf species, and upper- and lower-canopy (i.e. sun and shade) growth environments. Here we demonstrate the capacity to rapidly estimate LMA using only spectral measurements across a wide range of species, leaf age and canopy position from diverse biomes. Our model captures LMA variability with high accuracy and low error (R2 = 0.89; root mean square error (RMSE) = 15.45 g m-2 ). Our finding highlights the fact that the leaf economics spectrum is mirrored by the leaf optical spectrum, paving the way for this technology to predict the diversity of LMA in ecosystems across global biomes.

Understanding the pronounced seasonal and spatial variation in leaf carboxylation capacity (Vc,max ) is critical for determining terrestrial carbon cycling in tropical forests. However, an efficient and scalable approach for predicting Vc,max is still lacking. Here the ability of leaf spectroscopy for rapid estimation of Vc,max was tested. Vc,max was estimated using traditional gas exchange methods, and measured reflectance spectra and leaf age in leaves sampled from tropical forests in Panama and Brazil. These data were used to build a model to predict Vc,max from leaf spectra. The results demonstrated that leaf spectroscopy accurately predicts Vc,max of mature leaves in Panamanian tropical forests (R2 = 0.90). However, this single-age model required recalibration when applied to broader leaf demographic classes (i.e. immature leaves). Combined use of spectroscopy models for Vc,max and leaf age enabled construction of the Vc,max -age relationship solely from leaf spectra, which agreed with field observations. This suggests that the spectroscopy technique can capture the seasonal variability in Vc,max , assuming sufficient sampling across diverse species, leaf ages and canopy environments. This finding will aid development of remote sensing approaches that can be used to characterize Vc,max in moist tropical forests and enable an efficient means to parameterize and evaluate terrestrial biosphere models.

International audience; Transpiration in humid tropical forests modulates the global water cycle and is a key driver of climate regulation. Yet, our understanding of how tropical trees regulate sap flux in response to climate variability remains elusive. With a progressively warming climate, atmospheric evaporative demand [i.e., vapor pressure deficit (VPD)] will be increasingly important for plant functioning, becoming the major control of plant water use in the twenty-first century. Using measurements in 34 tree species at seven sites across a precipitation gradient in the neotropics, we determined how the maximum sap flux velocity (vmax) and the VPD threshold at which vmax is reached (VPDmax) vary with precipitation regime [mean annual precipitation (MAP); seasonal drought intensity (PDRY)] and two functional traits related to foliar and wood economics spectra [leaf mass per area (LMA); wood specific gravity (WSG)]. We show that, even though vmax is highly variable within sites, it follows a negative trend in response to increasing MAP and PDRY across sites. LMA and WSG exerted little effect on vmax and VPDmax, suggesting that these widely used functional traits provide limited explanatory power of dynamic plant responses to environmental variation within hyper-diverse forests. This study demonstrates that long-term precipitation plays an important role in the sap flux response of humid tropical forests to VPD. Our findings suggest that under higher evaporative demand, trees growing in wetter environments in humid tropical regions may be subjected to reduced water exchange with the atmosphere relative to trees growing in drier climates.

Stomata regulate CO2 uptake for photosynthesis and water loss through transpiration. The approaches used to represent stomatal conductance (gs ) in models vary. In particular, current understanding of drivers of the variation in a key parameter in those models, the slope parameter (i.e. a measure of intrinsic plant water-use-efficiency), is still limited, particularly in the tropics. Here we collected diurnal measurements of leaf gas exchange and leaf water potential (Ψleaf ), and a suite of plant traits from the upper canopy of 15 tropical trees in two contrasting Panamanian forests throughout the dry season of the 2016 El Nino. The plant traits included wood density, leaf-mass-per-area (LMA), leaf carboxylation capacity (Vc,max ), leaf water content, the degree of isohydry, and predawn Ψleaf . We first investigated how the choice of four commonly used leaf-level gs models with and without the inclusion of Ψleaf as an additional predictor variable influence the ability to predict gs , and then explored the abiotic (i.e. month, site-month interaction) and biotic (i.e. tree-species-specific characteristics) drivers of slope parameter variation. Our results show that the inclusion of Ψleaf did not improve model performance and that the models that represent the response of gs to vapor pressure deficit performed better than corresponding models that respond to relative humidity. Within each gs model, we found large variation in the slope parameter, and this variation was attributable to the biotic driver, rather than abiotic drivers. We further investigated potential relationships between the slope parameter and the six available plant traits mentioned above, and found that only one trait, LMA, had a significant correlation with the slope parameter (R2 = 0.66, n = 15), highlighting a potential path towards improved model parameterization. This study advances understanding of gs dynamics over seasonal drought, and identifies a practical, trait-based approach to improve modeling of carbon and water exchange in tropical forests.

Climate change is expected to lead to increases in drought frequency and severity, with deleterious effects on many ecosystems. Stomatal responses to changing environmental conditions form the backbone of all ecosystem models, but are based on empirical relationships and are not well-tested during drought conditions. Here, we use a dataset of 34 woody plant species spanning global forest biomes to examine the effect of leaf water potential on stomatal conductance and test the predictive accuracy of three major stomatal models and a recently proposed model. We find that current leaf-level empirical models have consistent biases of over-prediction of stomatal conductance during dry conditions, particularly at low soil water potentials. Furthermore, the recently proposed stomatal conductance model yields increases in predictive capability compared to current models, and with particular improvement during drought conditions. Our results reveal that including stomatal sensitivity to declining water potential and consequent impairment of plant water transport will improve predictions during drought conditions and show that many biomes contain a diversity of plant stomatal strategies that range from risky to conservative stomatal regulation during water stress. Such improvements in stomatal simulation are greatly needed to help unravel and predict the response of ecosystems to future climate extremes. Funding for this research was provided by NSF DEB EF-1340270 and the Climate Mitigation Initiative at the Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University. SL acknowledges financial support from the China Scholarship Council (CSC). VRD acknowledges funding from Ramón y Cajal fellowship (RYC-2012-10970). BTW was supported by the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments-Tropics, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. DJC acknowledges funding from the National Science Centre, Poland (NN309 713340). WRLA was supported in part by NSF DEB 1714972.

Ecosystem models have difficulty predicting plant drought responses, partially from uncertainty in the stomatal response to water deficits in soil and atmosphere. We evaluate a 'supply-demand' theory for water-limited stomatal behavior that avoids the typical scaffold of empirical response functions. The premise is that canopy water demand is regulated in proportion to threat to supply posed by xylem cavitation and soil drying. The theory was implemented in a trait-based soil-plant-atmosphere model. The model predicted canopy transpiration (E), canopy diffusive conductance (G), and canopy xylem pressure (Pcanopy ) from soil water potential (Psoil ) and vapor pressure deficit (D). Modeled responses to D and Psoil were consistent with empirical response functions, but controlling parameters were hydraulic traits rather than coefficients. Maximum hydraulic and diffusive conductances and vulnerability to loss in hydraulic conductance dictated stomatal sensitivity and hence the iso- to anisohydric spectrum of regulation. The model matched wide fluctuations in G and Pcanopy across nine data sets from seasonally dry tropical forest and pinon-juniper woodland with

Author(s): Fang, Y; Leung, LR; Wolfe, BT; Detto, M; Knox, RG; McDowell, NG; Grossiord, C; Xu, C; Christoffersen, BO; Gentine, P; Koven, CD; Chambers, JQ | Abstract: Water deficit in the atmosphere and soil are two key interactive factors that constrain transpiration and vegetation productivity. It is not clear which of these two factors is more important for the water and carbon flux response to drought stress in ecosystems. In this study, field data and numerical modeling were used to isolate their impact on evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) at a tropical forest site in Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, focusing on their response to the drought induced by the El Nino event of 2015–2016. Numerical simulations were performed using a plant hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) and a heuristic approach that ignores stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). The sensitivity of canopy conductance (Gs) to vapor pressure deficit (VPD) obtained from eddy-covariance fluxes and measured sap flux shows that, at both ecosystem and plant scale, soil water stress is more important in limiting Gs than VPD at BCI during the El Nino event. The model simulations confirmed the importance of water stress limitation on Gs, but overestimated the VPD impact on Gs compared to that estimated from the observations. We also found that the predicted soil moisture is less sensitive to the diversity of plant hydraulic traits than ET and GPP. During the dry season at BCI, seasonal ET, especially soil evaporation at VPDngn0.42nkPa, simulated using HYDRO and ELM, were too strong and will require alternative parameterizations.