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Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars. Thus, it is critical to imific understanding of SEP events and use this understanding to develop and improve SEP forecasting capabilities to support operations. Many SEP models exist or are in development using a wide variety of approaches and with differing goals. These include computationally intensive physics-based models, fast and light empirical models, machine learning-based models, and mixed-model approaches. The aim of this paper is to summarize all of the SEP models currently developed in the scientific community, including a description of model approach, inputs and outputs, free parameters, and any published validations or comparisons with data.

Metric type II radio bursts are usually early indicators of CME-driven shocks and other space weather phenomena in the solar corona. This paper presents a detailed investigation of the spectral properties of band-splitting type II radio bursts and their association with sunspot number. Using type II radio bursts in a frequency range 20 to 200MHz observed by CALLISTO from 2010 to 2017, it was discovered that the analyzed type II shock height, magnetic field strength, CME shock speed, and Alfven speed synchronize with the trajectory of the solar cycle 24. Also, the study revealed that the onset of the declining phase of solar cycle 24 has the highest electron density. The analysis ascertained that the frequency of type II bursts depicts a bimodal distribution during the study period, with peaks in 2012 and 2015. Further, a good correlation(with correlation factor R=0.87) was obtained between the estimated CME shock speeds from the dynamic spectra, and the associated CME speeds from SOHO-LASCO. Moreover, the study confirmed a significant correlation(R=0.8) between the absolute drift rates and the plasma frequency. Additionally, the study explored that 60% of the type II radio bursts considered in this study emanated from the western longitudes. Hence, these findings emphasize that the temporal dynamics of the physical conditions of band-splitting type II radio are essential parameters in space weather monitoring and forecasting., 20 pages, 8 figures

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) influence the interplanetary environment over vast distances in the solar system by injecting huge clouds of fast solar plasma and energetic particles (SEPs). A number of fundamental questions remain about how SEPs are produced, but current understanding points to CME-driven shocks and compressions in the solar corona. At the same time, unprecedented remote and in situ (Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter) solar observations are becoming available to constrain existing theories. Here we present a general method for recognition and tracking on solar images of objects such as CME shock waves and filaments. The calculation scheme is based on a multi-scale data representation concept a trous wavelet transform, and a set of image filtering techniques. We showcase its performance on a small set of CME-related phenomena observed with the SDO/AIA telescope. With the data represented hierarchically on different decomposition and intensity levels, our method allows to extract certain objects and their masks from the imaging observations, in order to track their evolution in time. The method presented here is general and applicable to detecting and tracking various solar and heliospheric phenomena in imaging observations. It holds potential to prepare large training data sets for deep learning. We have implemented this method into a freely available Python library., Comment: Accepted for publication in The Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Coronal Bright Fronts (CBF) are large-scale wavelike disturbances in the solar corona, related to solar eruptions. They are observed in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light as transient bright fronts of finite width, propagating away from the eruption source. Recent studies of individual solar eruptive events have used EUV observations of CBFs and metric radio type II burst observations to show the intimate connection between low coronal waves and coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shocks. EUV imaging with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly(AIA) instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) has proven particularly useful for detecting CBFs, which, combined with radio and in situ observations, holds great promise for early CME-driven shock characterization capability. This characterization can further be automated, and related to models of particle acceleration to produce estimates of particle fluxes in the corona and in the near Earth environment early in events. We present a framework for the Coronal Analysis of SHocks and Waves (CASHeW). It combines analysis of NASA Heliophysics System Observatory data products and relevant data-driven models, into an automated system for the characterization of off-limb coronal waves and shocks and the evaluation of their capability to accelerate solar energetic particles (SEPs). The system utilizes EUV observations and models written in the Interactive Data Language (IDL). In addition, it leverages analysis tools from the SolarSoft package of libraries, as well as third party libraries. We have tested the CASHeW framework on a representative list of coronal bright front events. Here we present its features, as well as initial results. With this framework, we hope to contribute to the overall understanding of coronal shock waves, their importance for energetic particle acceleration, as well as to the better ability to forecast SEP events fluxes., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate (SWSC)

Acute space radiation hazards pose one of the most serious risks to future human and robotic exploration. Large solar energetic particle (SEP) events are dangerous to astronauts and equipment. The ability to predict when and where large SEPs will occur is necessary in order to mitigate their hazards. The Coronal-Solar Wind Energetic Particle Acceleration (C-SWEPA) modeling effort in the NASANSF Space Weather Modeling Collaborative [Schunk, 2014] combines two successful Living With a Star (LWS) (http:lws.gsfc.nasa.gov) strategic capabilities: the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Modules (EMMREM)[Schwadron et al., 2010] that describe energetic particles and their effects, with the Next Generation Model forthe Corona and Solar Wind developed by the Predictive Science, Inc. (PSI) group. The goal of the C-WEPA effort is to develop a coupled model that describes the conditions of the corona, solar wind, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated shocks, particle acceleration, and propagation via physics-based modules. Assessing the threat of SEPs is a difficult problem. The largest SEPs typically arise in conjunction with X classflares and very fast (1000 kms) CMEs. These events are usually associated with complex sunspot groups(also known as active regions) that harbor strong, stressed magnetic fields. Highly energetic protonsgenerated in these events travel near the speed of light and can arrive at Earth minutes after the eruptiveevent. The generation of these particles is, in turn, believed to be primarily associated with the shock waveformed very low in the corona by the passage of the CME (injection of particles fromthe flare sitemay also playa role). Whether these particles actually reach Earth (or any other point) depends on their transport in theinterplanetary magnetic field and their magnetic connection to the shock.

[1] We investigate the ionospheric effects of a solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Mars, specifically the 29 September 1989 event. We use its energy spectrum and a steady state ionospheric model to simulate vertical profiles of ion and electron densities. The ionospheric response to this large event would have been readily observable. It caused electron densities to exceed 104 cm−3 at 30–170 km, much larger than typically observed below 100 km. It also increased the ionosphere's total electron content by half of its subsolar value and would have caused strong attenuation of radio waves. The simulated attenuation is 462 dB at 5 MHz, which demonstrates that SEP events can cause sufficient attenuation (>13 dB) to explain the lack of surface reflections in some MARSIS topside radar sounder observations. We also develop a complementary generalized approach to the study of the ionospheric effects of SEP events. This approach predicts the threshold intensities at which a SEP event is likely to produce detectable changes in electron density profiles and radio wave attenuation measurements. An event one hundred times less intense than the 29 September 1989 event produces electron densities in excess of 3000 cm−3 at 80 km, which should be measurable by radio occultation observations, and causes sufficient attenuation to eliminate MARSIS surface reflections. However, although enhancements in total electron content have been observed during SEP events, predicted enhancements in low altitude electron density were not confirmed by observations.

[1] The Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) measures linear energy transfer by Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Mission in a circular, polar lunar orbit. GCR fluxes remain at the highest levels ever observed during the space age. One of the largest SEP events observed by CRaTER during the LRO mission occurred on June 7, 2011. We compare model predictions by the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM) for both dose rates from GCRs and SEPs during this event with results from CRaTER. We find agreement between these models and the CRaTER dose rates, which together demonstrate the accuracy of EMMREM, and its suitability for a real-time space weather system. We utilize CRaTER to test forecasts made by the Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE), which successfully predicts the June 7th event. At the maximum CRaTER-observed GCR dose rate (∼11.7 cGy/yr where Gy is a unit indicating energy deposition per unit mass, 1 Gy = 1 J/kg), GCRs deposit ∼88 eV/molecule in water over 4 billion years, causing significant change in molecular composition and physical structure (e.g., density, color, crystallinity) of water ice, loss of molecular hydrogen, and production of more complex molecules linking carbon and other elements in the irradiated ice. This shows that space weathering by GCRs may be extremely important for chemical evolution of ice on the Moon. Thus, we show comprehensive observations from the CRaTER instrument on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter that characterizes the radiation environment and space weathering on the Moon.

[1] We review NASA's short-term and career radiation limits for astronauts and methods for their application to future exploration missions outside of low Earth orbit. Career limits are intended to restrict late occurring health effects and include a 3% risk of exposure-induced death from cancer and new limits for central nervous system and heart disease risks. Short-term dose limits are used to prevent in-flight radiation sickness or death through restriction of the doses to the blood forming organs and to prevent clinically significant cataracts or skin damage through lens and skin dose limits, respectively. Large uncertainties exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation, chiefly the understanding of the radiobiology of heavy ions and dose rate and dose protraction effects, and the limitations in human epidemiology data. To protect against these uncertainties NASA estimates the 95% confidence in the cancer risk projection intervals as part of astronaut flight readiness assessments and mission design. Accurate organ dose and particle spectra models are needed to ensure astronauts stay below radiation limits and to support the goal of narrowing the uncertainties in risk projections. Methodologies for evaluation of space environments, radiation quality, and organ doses to evaluate limits are discussed, and current projections for lunar and Mars missions are described.

present a study of the October/November 2003 Halloween solar energetic particle events with an energetic particle acceleration and propagation model that is part of EMMREM, highlighting the current ability of the framework to make predictions at various locations of the inner heliosphere. We compare model predictions with Ulysses observations of protons at energies above 10 MeV in order to obtain realistic proton fluxes and calculate radial gradients for peak fluxes, event fluences, and radiation dosimetric quantities. From our study, we find that a power law with an index of −3.55 at energy of 200 MeV describes the time‐integrated energetic proton fluence dependence on radial distances beyond 1 AU for the 2003 Halloween events, and an index of −4.18 is appropriate for peak proton fluxes at that energy. Calculations of radiation doses based on these simulations show average power law indices of −4.32 and −3.64 for peak dose rates and accumulated doses, respectively. In an effort to improve the predictions, we have coupled our kinetic code to results from a 3‐D heliospheric magnetohydrodynamic model, WSA/Enlil. While predictions with the coupled model overall show worse agreement than simulations with steady state solar wind conditions for these large events, the capability to couple energetic particle propagation and numerical models of the solar wind is an important step in the future development of space weather modeling.

[1] Solar energetic particles (SEPs) provide a significant radiation hazard for manned and unmanned interplanetary (IP) space missions. In order to estimate these hazards, it is essential to quantify the gradients of SEP intensities in the IP medium. The Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Exposure Module (EMMREM) is a new project aimed at characterizing the time-dependent radiation exposure in IP space. In this paper, we utilize EMMREM to study the radial dependence of proton peak intensities, event fluences, and radiation dose equivalents of 27–31 May 2003 SEP events at eight different locations between 1 and 4.91 AU at energies between ∼1.5 MeV and ∼130 MeV. We have modeled onset times and intensity profiles of the SEP events at Mars and Ulysses and found very good agreement at different energies. We report observations of energetic particles at locations with magnetic field line footprints that are separated by ∼90° in heliolongitude, possibly indicating very large coronal mass ejection sizes and/or high cross-field diffusion at large radial distances. Our results show that radial dependencies of proton peak intensities exhibit a broken power law between 1 to 2.5 AU and 2.5 to 4.91 AU, ranging between R−2.52 ± 0.42 and R−5.97 ± 0.32 for 25 MeV and between R−2.13 ± 0.36 and R−5.21 ± 0.29 for 52 MeV, where R is the radial distance from the Sun in units of AU. Event fluences exhibit a similar behavior but with a harder spectra. Radiation dose calculations show that these events did not pose a short-term radiation hazard to humans in the IP space.

[1] The Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module is being developed for use by a broad spectrum of researchers to predict energetic particle intensities and radiation exposures at any location in deep space. In this work we demonstrate the capabilities of the module for performing analyses of time-dependent exposures from solar energetic particle events at various locations in space by calculating cumulative dose and dose equivalent, and their time rates of change, for the skin and bone marrow of crew members shielded by as much as 10 g/cm2 of aluminum shielding for the Halloween events of late October 2003.

[1] Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are extremely difficult to shield against and pose one of the most severe long-term hazards for human exploration of space. The recent solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 shows a prolonged period of reduced solar activity and low interplanetary magnetic field strengths. As a result, the modulation of GCRs is very weak, and the fluxes of GCRs are near their highest levels in the last 25 years in the fall of 2009. Here we explore the dose rates of GCRs in the current prolonged solar minimum and make predictions for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER), which is now measuring GCRs in the lunar environment. Our results confirm the weak modulation of GCRs leading to the largest dose rates seen in the last 25 years over a prolonged period of little solar activity.

[1] We are preparing to return humans to the Moon and setting the stage for exploration to Mars and beyond. However, it is unclear if long missions outside of low-Earth orbit can be accomplished with acceptable risk. The central objective of a new modeling project, the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Exposure Module (EMMREM), is to develop and validate a numerical module for characterizing time-dependent radiation exposure in the Earth-Moon-Mars and interplanetary space environments. EMMREM is being designed for broad use by researchers to predict radiation exposure by integrating over almost any incident particle distribution from interplanetary space. We detail here the overall structure of the EMMREM module and study the dose histories of the 2003 Halloween storm event and a June 2004 event. We show both the event histories measured at 1 AU and the evolution of these events at observer locations beyond 1 AU. The results are compared to observations at Ulysses. The model allows us to predict how the radiation environment evolves with radial distance from the Sun. The model comparison also suggests areas in which our understanding of the physics of particle propagation and energization needs to be improved to better forecast the radiation environment. Thus, we introduce the suite of EMMREM tools, which will be used to improve risk assessment models so that future human exploration missions can be adequately planned for.