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The stratospheric polar vortex is dynamically coupled to the tropospheric circulation. Therefore, a better mechanistic understanding of this coupled system is important to interpret past and future circulation changes correctly. Previously, idealized simulations with a dry dynamical-core general circulation model and imposed tropical upper-tropospheric warming (TUTW) have shown that a critical warming level exists at which the polar vortex transitions from a weak and variable to a strong and stable regime. Here, we investigate the dynamical mechanism responsible for this regime transition and its influence on the troposphere by performing similar idealized experiments with (REF) and without a polar vortex (NPV). According to the critical-layer control mechanism, the strengthened upper flank of the subtropical jet in response to TUTW leads to an accelerated wave-driven residual circulation in both experiments. For the REF experiment, the stronger residual circulation is associated with changes in the lower-stratospheric thermal structure that are consistent with an equatorward shift of the polar vortex. At a certain threshold of TUTW in the REF experiment, the tropospheric jet and the stratospheric polar vortex form a confined waveguide for planetary-scale waves that presumably favors downward wave coupling events. Consistently, the polar vortex strengthens in combination with an enhanced poleward shift of the tropospheric jet compared to the NPV experiment. Overall, these idealized experiments suggest that a polar vortex strengthening can be caused by greenhouse gas–induced warmings via modifications of the waveguide. This mechanism might also be relevant to understand the polar vortex changes in more complex models.

In this study, we perform dedicated model experiments with the ECHAM/MESSy (European Center Hamburg Model / Modular Earth Submodel System) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC, Jöckel et al. 2005, 2010, 2016) model version 2.54.0.3. to quantify the modification of the circulation response to CO2 forcing by stratospheric ozone. Specifically, we compare simulations with pre-industrial (piCtrl) and with quadrupled CO2 climate conditions, in which stratospheric ozone is either held fixed (4xCO2piO3) or is adapted to the new climate state (4xCO2Ctrl). The diagnosticof the residual circulation and mean age of air shows that ozone changes dampen the CO2-induced BDC acceleration by up to 20%. This damping of the BDC acceleration is caused by an enhancement of the meridional temperature gradient in the lower stratosphere in summer, thereby leading to stronger stratospheric easterlies that suppress wave propagation. Additionally, we find a systematic weakening of the polar vortices in winter and spring. In the SH, ozone reduces the CO2-induced delay of the final warming date by 50 %. The output data that are used for this study are located in the following files: The zonal meanozone fields (for the pre-industrial and 4xCO2 condition) are located in these files: abr4xCO2_O3_ml47_zm_1960-1989_clim.nc; piCtrl_O3_ml47_zm_1960-1989_clim.nc We use v* and w* from the TEM monthly mean climatology data (files with the ending ...TEM_ymm.nc)for calculating the mass streamfunction as well as for the tropical upwelling.In addition, the TEM climatology contains also the EP-flux and its divergence (EPFD). The AoA climatology data (files with the ending ...AoA_1980-2029_ymm.nc) is also used for investigation of the mass transport represented by the BDC. We apply themonthly mean climatology of the temperature, specific humidity, zonal wind and gravity wave drag fields from the files with the ending...plev-ymm.nc. The monthly mean climatology of the shortwave heating rates are in the files with the ending ...._heatsw_pl_ymm.nc. The interaction between the stratosphere and troposphere and the abruptness of the final warming areanalyzed with daily climatological datafrom the files which end with ...._geopot_yd.nc. The standard deviation of these climatologies that are located in the files with the ending ...ymstd.nc (for monthly data) or ...ydstd.nc (for daily data) is used for the significance tests. The tropopause data (for the pre-industrial and 4xCO2 condition) can be found in these two files:C2-4xCO2ctrl_1980-2029_tropop-p-ymm.nc; C2-4xCO2ctrl_1980-2029_tropop-p-ymm.nc For the detection of the final warming date following by the method of Charlton and Polvani (2007), the daily mean climatology of the zonal mean zonal wind(file with the ending..10hPa_60degN/S.nc)is applied.

A severe cold spell with surface temperatures reaching 10 K below its climatology hit Eurasia during late February/early March 2018. This cold spell was associated with a Scandinavian blocking pattern followed by an extreme negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Here we explore the predictability of this cold spell/NAO event using ensemble forecasts from the Subseasonalto-Seasonal (S2S) archive of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. We find that this event was predicted with the observed strength roughly 10 days in advance. However, the probability of the cold spell occurring doubled up to 25 days in advance, when a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurred. Our results indicate that the amplitude of the cold spell was increased by a regime shift to the negative NAO phase at the end of February, which was likely favoured by the SSW. We quantify the contribution of the SSW to the enhanced extended-range forecast skill for this particular event by running forecast ensembles in which the evolution of the stratosphere is nudged to (a) the observed evolution, and (b) a time-invariant state. In the experiment with nudging to the observed stratospheric evolution, the probability of a strong cold spell occurring is enhanced to 45%, while it is at its climatological value of 5% when the stratosphere is nudged to a time-invariant state. These results showing enhanced predictability of surface extremes following SSWs extend previous observational evidence, which is mostly based on composite analyses, to a single event. Our results suggest that it is the subsequent evolution throughout the lower stratosphere following the SSW, rather than the occurrence of the SSW itself, that is crucial in coupling to large-scale tropospheric flow patterns. However, we caution that probabilistic gain in predictability alone is insufficient to conclude a causal link between the SSW and the cold spell event.

The Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) is a key feature of the stratosphere that models need to accurately represent in order to simulate surface climate variability and change adequately. For the first time, the Climate Model Intercomparison Project includes in its phase 6 (CMIP6) a set of diagnostics that allow for careful evaluation of the BDC. Here, the BDC is evaluated against observations and reanalyses using historical simulations. CMIP6 results confirm the well-known inconsistency in the sign of BDC trends between observations and models in the middle and upper stratosphere. Nevertheless, the large uncertainty in the observational trend estimates opens the door to compatibility. In particular, when accounting for the limited sampling of the observations, model and observational trend error bars overlap in 40 % of the simulations with available output. The increasing CO2 simulations feature an acceleration of the BDC but reveal a large spread in the middle-to-upper stratospheric trends, possibly related to the parameterized gravity wave forcing. The very close connection between the shallow branch of the residual circulation and surface temperature is highlighted, which is absent in the deep branch. The trends in mean age of air are shown to be more robust throughout the stratosphere than those in the residual circulation.

Analysis of stratospheric transport from an observational point of view is frequently realized by evaluation of the mean age of air values from long-lived trace gases. However, this provides more insight into general transport strength and less into its mechanism. Deriving complete transit time distributions (age spectra) is desirable, but their deduction from direct measurements is difficult. It is so far primarily based on model work. This paper introduces a modified version of an inverse method to infer age spectra from mixing ratios of short-lived trace gases and investigates its basic principle in an idealized model simulation. For a full description of transport seasonality the method includes an imposed seasonal cycle to gain multimodal spectra. An ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model simulation is utilized for a general proof of concept of the method and features an idealized dataset of 40 radioactive trace gases with different chemical lifetimes as well as 40 chemically inert pulsed trace gases to calculate pulse age spectra. It is assessed whether the modified inverse method in combination with the seasonal cycle can provide matching age spectra when chemistry is well-known. Annual and seasonal mean inverse spectra are compared to pulse spectra including first and second moments as well as the ratio between them to assess the performance on these timescales. Results indicate that the modified inverse age spectra match the annual and seasonal pulse age spectra well on global scale beyond 1.5 years of mean age of air. The imposed seasonal cycle emerges as a reliable tool to include transport seasonality in the age spectra. Below 1.5 years of mean age of air, tropospheric influence intensifies and breaks the assumption of single entry through the tropical tropopause, leading to inaccurate spectra, in particular in the Northern Hemisphere. The imposed seasonal cycle wrongly prescribes seasonal entry in this lower region and does not lead to a better agreement between inverse and pulse age spectra without further improvement. Tests with a focus on future application to observational data imply that subsets of trace gases with 5 to 10 species are sufficient for deriving well-matching age spectra. These subsets can also compensate for an average uncertainty of up to ±20 % in the knowledge of chemical lifetime if a deviation of circa ±10 % in modal age and amplitude of the resulting spectra is tolerated.

Energy and momentum deposition from planetary-scale Rossby waves as well as from small-scale gravity waves (GWs) largely control stratospheric dynamics. Interactions between these different wave types, however, complicate the quantification of their individual contribution to the overall dynamical state of the middle atmosphere. In state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs), the majority of the GW spectrum cannot be resolved and therefore has to be parameterised. This is commonly implemented in two discrete schemes, one for GWs that originate from flow over orographic obstacles and one for all other kinds of GWs (non-orographic GWs). In this study, we attempt to gain a deeper understanding of the interactions of resolved with parameterised wave driving and of their influence on the stratospheric zonal winds and on the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). For this, we set up a GCM time slice experiment with two sensitivity simulations: one without orographic GWs and one without non-orographic GWs. Our findings include an acceleration of the polar vortices, which has historically been one of the main reasons for including explicit GW parameterisations in GCMs. Further, we find inter-hemispheric differences in BDC changes when omitting GWs that can be explained by wave compensation and amplification effects. These are partly evoked through local changes in the refractive properties of the atmosphere caused by the omitted GW drag and a thereby increased planetary wave propagation. However, non-local effects on the flow can act to suppress vertical wave fluxes into the stratosphere for a very strong polar vortex. Moreover, we study mean age of stratospheric air to investigate the impact of missing GWs on tracer transport. On the basis of this analysis, we suggest that the larger ratio of planetary waves to GWs leads to enhanced horizontal mixing, which can have a large impact on stratospheric tracer distributions.

The South Asian High (SAH) is an important component of the summer monsoon system in Asia. In this study we investigate the location and drivers of the SAH at 100 hPa during the boreal summers of 1979 to 2014 on interannual, seasonal and synoptic timescales using seven reanalyses and observational data. Our comparison of the different reanalyses focuses especially on the bimodality of the SAH, i.e. the two preferred modes of the SAH centre location: the Iranian Plateau to the west and the Tibetan Plateau to the east. We find that only the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis shows a clear bimodal structure of the SAH centre distribution with respect to daily and pentad (5 day) mean data. Furthermore, the distribution of the SAH centre location is highly variable from year to year. As in simple model studies, which connect the SAH to heating in the tropics, we find that the mean seasonal cycle of the SAH and its centre are dominated by the expansion of convection in the South Asian region (70–130° E × 15–30° N) on the south-eastern border of the SAH. A composite analysis of precipitation and outgoing long-wave radiation data with respect to the location of the SAH centre reveals that a more westward (eastward) location of the SAH is related to stronger (weaker) convection and rainfall over India and weaker (stronger) precipitation over the western Pacific.

This study investigates the abrupt and severe water vapour decline in the stratosphere beginning in the year 2000 (the "millennium water vapour drop") and other similarly strong stratospheric water vapour reductions by means of various simulations with the state-of-the-art Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry Model). The model simulations differ with respect to the prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and whether nudging is applied or not. The CCM EMAC is able to most closely reproduce the signature and pattern of the water vapour drop in agreement with those derived from satellite observations if the model is nudged. Model results confirm that this extraordinary water vapour decline is particularly obvious in the tropical lower stratosphere and is related to a large decrease in cold point temperature. The drop signal propagates under dilution to the higher stratosphere and to the poles via the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). We found that the driving forces for this significant decline in water vapour mixing ratios are tropical sea surface temperature (SST) changes due to a coincidence with a preceding strong El Niño–Southern Oscillation event (1997/1998) followed by a strong La Niña event (1999/2000) and supported by the change of the westerly to the easterly phase of the equatorial stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in 2000. Correct (observed) SSTs are important for triggering the strong decline in water vapour. There are indications that, at least partly, SSTs contribute to the long period of low water vapour values from 2001 to 2006. For this period, the specific dynamical state of the atmosphere (overall atmospheric large-scale wind and temperature distribution) is important as well, as it causes the observed persistent low cold point temperatures. These are induced by a period of increased upwelling, which, however, has no corresponding pronounced signature in SSTs anomalies in the tropics. Our free-running simulations do not capture the drop as observed, because a) the cold point temperature has a low bias and thus the water vapour variability is reduced and b) because they do not simulate the appropriate dynamical state. Large negative water vapour declines are also found in other years and seem to be a feature which can be found after strong combined El Niño/La Niña events if the QBO west phase during La Niña changes to the east phase.

The stratospheric age of air (AoA) is a useful measure of the overall capabilities of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulate stratospheric transport. Previous studies have reported a large spread in the simulation of AoA by GCMs and coupled chemistry–climate models (CCMs). Compared to observational estimates, simulated AoA is mostly too low. Here we attempt to untangle the processes that lead to the AoA differences between the models and between models and observations. AoA is influenced by both mean transport by the residual circulation and two-way mixing; we quantify the effects of these processes using data from the CCM inter-comparison projects CCMVal-2 (Chemistry–Climate Model Validation Activity 2) and CCMI-1 (Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative, phase 1). Transport along the residual circulation is measured by the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). We interpret the difference between AoA and RCTT as additional aging by mixing. Aging by mixing thus includes mixing on both the resolved and subgrid scale. We find that the spread in AoA between the models is primarily caused by differences in the effects of mixing and only to some extent by differences in residual circulation strength. These effects are quantified by the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative increase in AoA by mixing. The mixing efficiency varies strongly between the models from 0.24 to 1.02. We show that the mixing efficiency is not only controlled by horizontal mixing, but by vertical mixing and vertical diffusion as well. Possible causes for the differences in the models' mixing efficiencies are discussed. Differences in subgrid-scale mixing (including differences in advection schemes and model resolutions) likely contribute to the differences in mixing efficiency. However, differences in the relative contribution of resolved versus parameterized wave forcing do not appear to be related to differences in mixing efficiency or AoA., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 18 (9), ISSN:1680-7375, ISSN:1680-7367

Because tropospheric ozone is both a greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry–climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)), climate change (including methane effects) and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 (a medium-high, and reasonably realistic climate scenario). Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximizes in the early 21st century at 23% compared to 1960. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70-year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the long lifetime of ozone in the troposphere. A simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NOx, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6% increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone by the end of the 21st century, with an 11 % increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximizes in the 2080s and is mostly caused by methane, which maximizes in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its influence on other VOCs and CO. Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as climate change-induced enhancements in lightning NOx emissions also increase the tropospheric ozone burden, although their impacts are relatively small. Overall, the results show that under this climate scenario, ozone in the future is governed largely by changes in methane and NOx; methane induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NOx. Climate impacts on ozone through changes in tropospheric temperature, humidity and lightning NOx remain secondary compared with emission strategies relating to anthropogenic emissions of NOx, such as fossil fuel burning. Therefore, emission policies globally have a critical role to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century.

Mean age of air (AoA) is a widely used metric to describe the transport along the Brewer–Dobson circulation. We seek to untangle the effects of different processes on the simulation of AoA, using the chemistry–climate model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) and the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). Here, the effects of residual transport and two-way mixing on AoA are calculated. To do so, we calculate the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). The difference of AoA and RCTT is defined as aging by mixing. However, as diffusion is also included in this difference, we further use a method to directly calculate aging by mixing on resolved scales. Comparing these two methods of calculating aging by mixing allows for separating the effect of unresolved aging by mixing (which we term aging by diffusion in the following) in EMAC and CLaMS. We find that diffusion impacts AoA by making air older, but its contribution plays a minor role (order of 10 %) in all simulations. However, due to the different advection schemes of the two models, aging by diffusion has a larger effect on AoA and mixing efficiency in EMAC, compared to CLaMS. Regarding the trends in AoA, in CLaMS the AoA trend is negative throughout the stratosphere except in the Northern Hemisphere middle stratosphere, consistent with observations. This slight positive trend is neither reproduced in a free-running nor in a nudged simulation with EMAC – in both simulations the AoA trend is negative throughout the stratosphere. Trends in AoA are mainly driven by the contributions of RCTT and aging by mixing, whereas the contribution of aging by diffusion plays a minor role.

The future evolution of tropical ozone in a changing climate is investigated by analysing time slice simulations made with the chemistry–climate model EMAC. Between the present and the end of the 21st century a significant increase in ozone is found globally for the upper stratosphere and the extratropical lower stratosphere, while in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases significantly by up to 30%. Previous studies have shown that this decrease is connected to changes in tropical upwelling. Here the dominant role of transport for the future ozone decrease is confirmed, but it is found that in addition changes in chemical ozone production and destruction do contribute to the ozone changes in the tropical lower stratosphere. Between 50 and 30 hPa the dynamically induced ozone decrease of up to 22% is amplified by 11–19% due to a reduced ozone production. This is counteracted by a decrease in the ozone loss causing an ozone increase by 15–28%. At 70 hPa the large ozone decrease due to transport (−52%) is reduced by an enhanced photochemical ozone production (+28%) but slightly increased (−5%) due to an enhanced ozone loss. It is found that the increase in the ozone production in the lowermost stratosphere is mainly due to a transport induced decrease in the overlying ozone column while at higher altitudes the ozone production decreases as a consequence of a chemically induced increase in the overlying ozone column. The ozone increase that is attributed to changes in ozone loss between 50 and 30 hPa is mainly caused by a slowing of the ClOx and NOx loss cycles. The enhanced ozone destruction below 70 hPa can be attributed to an increased efficiency of the HOx loss cycle. The role of ozone transport in determining the ozone trend in this region is found to depend on the changes in the net production as a reduced net production also reduces the amount of ozone that can be transported within an air parcel.

Chemistry-climate models (CCMs) project an earlier return of northern mid-latitude total column ozone to 1980 values compared to the southern mid-latitudes. The chemical and dynamical drivers of this hemispheric difference are investigated in this study. The hemispheric asymmetry in return dates is a robust result across different CCMs and is qualitatively independent of the method used to estimate return dates. However, the differences in dates of return to 1980 levels between the southern and northern mid-latitudes can vary between 0 and 30 yr across the range of CCM projections analyzed. Positive linear trends in ozone lead to an earlier return of ozone than expected from the return of Cly to 1980 levels. This forward shift is stronger in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere because (i) trends have a larger effect on return dates if the sensitivity of ozone to Cly is lower and (ii) the trends in the Northern Hemisphere are stronger than in the Southern Hemisphere. An attribution analysis performed with two CCMs shows that chemically-induced changes in ozone are the major driver of the earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels in northern mid-latitudes; therefore transport changes are of minor importance. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the spread in the simulated hemispheric difference in return dates across an ensemble of twelve models is only weakly related to the spread in the simulated hemispheric asymmetry of trends in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation. The causes for chemically-induced asymmetric ozone trends relevant for the total column ozone return date differences are found to be (i) stronger increases in ozone production due to enhanced NOx concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere lowermost stratosphere and troposphere, (ii) stronger decreases in the destruction rates of ozone by the NOx cycle in the Northern Hemisphere lower stratosphere linked to effects of dynamics and temperature on NOx concentrations, and (iii) an increasing efficiency of heterogeneous ozone destruction by Cly in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes as a~result of decreasing lower stratospheric temperatures.

The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistry-climate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, "metrics" indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long-standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Transport pathways of air originating in the upper tropospheric Asian monsoon anticyclone are investigated based on three-dimensional trajectories. The Asian monsoon anticyclone emerges in response to persistent deep convection over India and southeast Asia in northern summer, and this convection is associated with rapid transport from the surface to the upper troposphere, and possibly into the stratosphere. Here, we investigate the fate of air that originates within the upper tropospheric anticyclone from the outflow of deep convection, using trajectories driven by ERA-interim reanalysis data. Calculations include isentropic estimates, plus fully three-dimensional results based on kinematic and diabatic transport calculations. Isentropic calculations show that air parcels are typically confined within the anticyclone for 10–20 days, and spread over the tropical belt within a month of their initialization. However, only few parcels (3 % at 360 K, 8 % at 380 K) reach the extratropical stratosphere by isentropic mixing. When considering vertical transport we find that 31 % (48%) of the trajectories reach the stratosphere within 60 days when using vertical velocities or diabatic heating rates to calculate vertical transport, respectively. In both cases, most parcels that reach the stratosphere are transported upward within the anticyclone and enter the stratosphere in the tropics, typically 10–20 days after their initialization at 360 K. This suggests that trace gases, including pollutants, that are transported into the stratosphere via the Asian monsoon system are in a position to enter the tropical pipe and thus be transported into the deep stratosphere. Sensitivity calculations with respect to the initial altitude of the trajectories showed that air needs to be transported to levels of 360 K or above by deep convection to likely (≧50 %) reach the stratosphere through transport by the large-scale circulation.

Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery) for local noon from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations – particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery – and the spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average ~12 % lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, ~3 % lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (~1 %) in the tropics. The largest reduction (~16 %) is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are responsible for 2–3 % of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (~1 %). The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980) depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances. At northern high latitudes (60°–90°), the projected decreases in cloud transmittance towards the end of the 21st century will reduce the yearly average surface erythemal irradiance by ~5 % with respect to the 1960s.

Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM) simulations are commonly used to project the past and future development of the dynamics and chemistry of the stratosphere, and in particular the ozone layer. So far, CCMs are usually not interactively coupled to an ocean model, so that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice coverage are prescribed in the simulations. While for future integrations SSTs have to be taken from precalculated climate model projections, for CCM experiments resembling the past either modelled or observed SSTs can be used. This study addresses the question to which extent atmospheric climatologies and long-term trends for the recent past simulated in the CCM E39C-A differ when choosing either observed or modelled SSTs. Furthermore, the processes of how the SST signal is communicated to the atmosphere, and in particular to the stratosphere are examined. Two simulations that differ only with respect to the prescribed SSTs and that span years 1960 to 1999 are used. Significant differences in temperature and ozone climatologies between the model simulations are found. The differences in ozone are attributed to differences in the meridional circulation, which are in turn driven by weaker wave forcing in the simulation with generally lower SSTs. The long-term trends over 40 years in annual mean temperature and ozone differ only in the troposphere, where temperatures are directly influenced by the local SST trends. Differences in temperature and ozone trends are only found on shorter time scales. The trends in tropical upwelling, as a measure of the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), differ strongly between the simulations. A reverse from negative to positive trends is found in the late 1970s in the simulation using observed SSTs while trends are positive throughout the simulation when using modelled SSTs. The increase in the BDC is a robust feature of the simulations only after about 1980 and is evident mainly in the tropics in the lower stratosphere.

Mean age of air (AoA) measures the mean transit time of air parcels along the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) starting from their entry into the stratosphere. AoA is determined both by transport along the residual circulation and by two-way mass exchange (mixing). The relative roles of residual circulation transport and two-way mixing for AoA, and for projected AoA changes are not well understood. Here effects of mixing on AoA are quantified by contrasting AoA with the transit time of hypothetical transport solely by the residual circulation. Based on climate model simulations, we find additional aging by mixing throughout most of the lower stratosphere, except in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere where mixing reduces AoA. We use a simple Lagrangian model to reconstruct the distribution of AoA in the GCM and to illustrate the effects of mixing at different locations in the stratosphere. Predicted future reduction in AoA associated with an intensified BDC is equally due to faster transport along the residual circulation as well as reduced aging by mixing. A tropical leaky pipe model is used to derive a mixing efficiency, measured by the ratio of the two-way mixing mass flux and the net (residual) mass flux across the subtropical boundary. The mixing efficiency remains close to constant in a future climate, suggesting that the strength of two-way mixing is tightly coupled to the strength of the residual circulation in the lower stratosphere. This implies that mixing generally amplifies changes in AoA due to uniform changes in the residual circulation. Key Points A method is introduced to quantify the effects of mixing on age of air Mixing mostly leads to additional aging of air, due to recirculation The mixing strength is tightly coupled to the residual circulation strength ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

In this study the impact of a substantially reduced Arctic sea-ice cover on the lower and middle stratosphere is investigated. For this purpose two simulations with fixed boundary conditions (the so-called time-slice mode) were performed with a Chemistry-Climate Model. A reference time-slice with boundary conditions representing the year 2000 is compared to a second sensitivity simulation in which the boundary conditions are identical apart from the polar sea-ice cover, which is set to represent the years 2089–2099. Three features of Arctic air temperature response have been identified which are discussed in detail. Firstly, tropospheric mean polar temperatures increase up to 7 K during winter. This warming is primarily driven by changes in outgoing long-wave radiation. The tropospheric response (e.g. geopotential height anomaly) is in reasonable agreement with similar studies dealing with Arctic sea-ice decrease and the consequences on the troposphere. Secondly, temperatures decrease significantly in the summer stratosphere caused by a decline in outgoing short-wave radiation, accompanied by a slight increase of ozone mixing ratios. Thirdly, there are short periods of statistical significant temperature anomalies in the winter stratosphere probably driven by modified planetary wave activity, but generally there is no clear stratospheric response. The Arctic Oscillation (AO)-index, which is related to the troposphere–stratosphere coupling favours a more neutral state during winter. The only clear stratospheric response can be shown during November. Significant changes in Arctic temperature, meridional eddy heat fluxes and the Arctic Oscillation (AO)-index are detected. In this study the overall stratospheric response to the prescribed sea-ice anomaly is small compared to the tropospheric changes.

Drivers of upwelling in the tropical lower stratosphere are investigated using the E39C-A chemistry–climate model. The climatological annual cycle in upwelling and its wave forcing are compared to the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). The strength in tropical upwelling and its annual cycle can be largely explained by local resolved wave forcing. The climatological mean forcing is due to both stationary planetary-scale waves that originate in the tropics and extratropical transient synoptic-scale waves that are refracted equatorward. Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations to 2050 force a year-round positive trend in tropical upwelling, which maximizes in the lowermost stratosphere. Tropical ascent is balanced by downwelling between 20° and 40°. Strengthening of tropical upwelling can be explained by stronger local forcing by resolved wave flux convergence, which is driven in turn by processes initiated by increases in tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Higher tropical SSTs cause a strengthening of the subtropical jets and modification of deep convection affecting latent heat release. While the former can modify wave propagation and dissipation, the latter affects tropical wave generation. The dominant mechanism leading to enhanced vertical wave propagation into the lower stratosphere is an upward shift of the easterly shear zone due to the strengthening and upward shift of the subtropical jets.

International audience; Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations covering the recent past and continuing throughout the 21st century have been completed with a range of different models. Common forcings are used for the halogen amounts and greenhouse gas concentrations, as expected under the Montreal Protocol (with amendments) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1b Scenario. The simulations of the Antarctic ozone hole are compared using commonly used diagnostics: the minimum ozone, the maximum area of ozone below 220 DU, and the ozone mass deficit below 220 DU. Despite the fact that the processes responsible for ozone depletion are reasonably well understood, a wide range of results is obtained. Comparisons with observations indicate that one of the reasons for the model underprediction in ozone hole area is the tendency for models to underpredict, by up to 35%, the area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation. Models also typically have species gradients that are too weak at the edge of the polar vortex, suggesting that there is too much mixing of air across the vortex edge. Other models show a high bias in total column ozone which restricts the size of the ozone hole (defined by a 220 DU threshold). The results of those models which agree best with observations are examined in more detail. For several models the ozone hole does not disappear this century but a small ozone hole of up to three million square kilometers continues to occur in most springs even after 2070.

A multimodel assessment of the performance of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) in the extratropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) is conducted for the first time. Process-oriented diagnostics are used to validate dynamical and transport characteristics of 18 CCMs using meteorological analyses and aircraft and satellite observations. The main dynamical and chemical climatological characteristics of the extratropical UTLS are generally well represented by the models, despite the limited horizontal and vertical resolution. The seasonal cycle of lowermost stratospheric mass is realistic, however with a wide spread in its mean value. A tropopause inversion layer is present in most models, although the maximum in static stability is located too high above the tropopause and is somewhat too weak, as expected from limited model resolution. Similar comments apply to the extratropical tropopause transition layer. The seasonality in lower stratospheric chemical tracers is consistent with the seasonality in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Both vertical and meridional tracer gradients are of similar strength to those found in observations. Models that perform less well tend to use a semi-Lagrangian transport scheme and/or have a very low resolution. Two models, and the multimodel mean, score consistently well on all diagnostics, while seven other models score well on all diagnostics except the seasonal cycle of water vapor. Only four of the models are consistently below average. The lack of tropospheric chemistry in most models limits their evaluation in the upper troposphere. Finally, the UTLS is relatively sparsely sampled by observations, limiting our ability to quantitatively evaluate many aspects of model performance. Copyright © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

International audience; The internal variability and coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in CCMVal-2 chemistry-climate models are evaluated through analysis of the annular mode patterns of variability. Computation of the annular modes in long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The spatial and temporal structure of the models' annular modes is then compared with that of reanalyses. As a whole, the models capture the key features of observed intraseasonal variability, including the sharp vertical gradients in structure between stratosphere and troposphere, the asymmetries in the seasonal cycle between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and the coupling between the polar stratospheric vortices and tropospheric midlatitude jets. It is also found that the annular mode variability changes little in time throughout simulations of the 21st century. There are, however, both common biases and significant differences in performance in the models. In the troposphere, the annular mode in models is generally too persistent, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere summer, a bias similar to that found in CMIP3 coupled climate models. In the stratosphere, the periods of peak variance and coupling with the troposphere are delayed by about a month in both hemispheres. The relationship between increased variability of the stratosphere and increased persistence in the troposphere suggests that some tropospheric biases may be related to stratospheric biases and that a well-simulated stratosphere can improve simulation of tropospheric intraseasonal variability.

International audience; Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960–2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as temporally varying chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in accordance with observations for the past and expectations for the future. The ozone results are analyzed using a nonparametric additive statistical model. Comparisons are made with observations for the recent past, and the recovery of ozone, indicated by a return to 1960 and 1980 values, is investigated as a function of latitude. Although chlorine amounts are simulated to return to 1980 values by about 2050, with only weak latitudinal variations, column ozone amounts recover at different rates due to the influence of greenhouse gas changes. In the tropics, simulated peak ozone amounts occur by about 2050 and thereafter total ozone column declines. Consequently, simulated ozone does not recover to values which existed prior to the early 1980s. The results also show a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, with recovery to 1980 values in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics ahead of the chlorine return by about 20 years. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, ozone is simulated to return to 1980 levels only 10 years ahead of chlorine. In the Antarctic, annually averaged ozone recovers at about the same rate as chlorine in high latitudes and hence does not return to 1960s values until the last decade of the simulations.

International audience; The impact of stratospheric ozone on the tropospheric general circulation of theSouthern Hemisphere (SH) is examined with a set of chemistry‐climate models participatingin the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)/Chemistry‐ClimateModel Validation project phase 2 (CCMVal‐2). Model integrations of both the past andfuture climates reveal the crucial role of stratospheric ozone in driving SH circulationchange: stronger ozone depletion in late spring generally leads to greater polewarddisplacement and intensification of the tropospheric midlatitude jet, and greater expansion ofthe SH Hadley cell in the summer. These circulation changes are systematic as polewarddisplacement of the jet is typically accompanied by intensification of the jet and expansion ofthe Hadley cell. Overall results are compared with coupled models participating in theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), andpossible mechanisms are discussed. While the tropospheric circulation response appearsquasi‐linearly related to stratospheric ozone changes, the quantitative response to a givenforcing varies considerably from one model to another. This scatter partly results fromdifferences in model climatology. It is shown that poleward intensification of the westerly jetis generally stronger in models whose climatological jet is biased toward lower latitudes.This result is discussed in the context of quasi‐geostrophic zonal mean dynamics.

The goal of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) activity is to improve understanding of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) through process-oriented evaluation and to provide reliable projections of stratospheric ozone and its impact on climate. An appreciation of the details of model formulations is essential for understanding how models respond to the changing external forcings of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances, and hence for understanding the ozone and climate forecasts produced by the models participating in this activity. Here we introduce and review the models used for the second round (CCMVal-2) of this intercomparison, regarding the implementation of chemical, transport, radiative, and dynamical processes in these models. In particular, we review the advantages and problems associated with approaches used to model processes of relevance to stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. Furthermore, we state the definitions of the reference simulations performed, and describe the forcing data used in these simulations. We identify some developments in chemistry-climate modeling that make models more physically based or more comprehensive, including the introduction of an interactive ocean, online photolysis, troposphere-stratosphere chemistry, and non-orographic gravity-wave deposition as linked to tropospheric convection. The relatively new developments indicate that stratospheric CCM modeling is becoming more consistent with our physically based understanding of the atmosphere. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

[1] The Asian summer monsoon is associated with strong upward transport of tropospheric source gases and isolation of air within the upper tropospheric anticyclone, with a high degree of dynamical variability. Here we study the anticyclone in terms of potential vorticity (PV) as derived from reanalysis data. The strength of the anticyclone, as measured by low PV area, varies on subseasonal time scales (periods of 30–40 days), driven by variability in convection. The convective forcing of low PV areas is associated with heating in the middle troposphere and divergent motion in the upper troposphere, and we find that upper level divergence is a good predictor of the anticyclone strength. Low PV air is often observed to propagate from the forcing region to the west, and occasionally to the east. Carbon monoxide (CO) measured by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder is used to study the covariability of chemical tracers with the anticyclone strength and location. Concentrations of CO maximize within the upper tropospheric anticyclone, and enhanced CO is well correlated with the spatial distribution of low PV. Time variations of CO concentrations in the upper troposphere (around 360 K) are not strongly correlated with anticyclone strength, probably because CO transport also involves coupling with surface CO sources (unlike PV). Temporal correlations with PV are stronger for CO at higher levels (380–400 K), suggesting that advective upward transport is important for tracer evolution at these levels.

For the first time a purely Lagrangian transport algorithm is applied in a fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM). We use the numerically non-diffusive Lagrangian scheme ATTILA instead of the operational semi-Lagrangian scheme for the transport of water vapour, cloud water and chemical trace species in the CCM E39C. The new model version including the Lagrangian scheme is referred to as E39C-A. The implications of the Lagrangian transport scheme for stratospheric model dynamics and tracer distributions in E39C-A are evaluated by comparison with observations and results of the previous model version E39C. We found in a previous paper that several deficiencies in stratospheric dynamics in E39C originate from a pronounced modelled wet bias and an associated cold bias in the extra-tropical lowermost stratosphere. Contrary to the semi-Lagrangian scheme ATTILA shows a largely reduced meridional transport of water vapour from the tropical upper troposphere into the extratropical lowermost stratosphere. The reduction of the moisture and temperature bias in E39C-A leads to a significant advancement of stratospheric dynamics in terms of the mean state as well as annual and interannual variability. In this study we show that as a consequence of both, the favourable numerical characteristics of the Lagrangian transport scheme and the improved model dynamics, E39C-A generally shows more realistic distributions of chemical trace species: Compared to E39C high stratospheric chlorine (Cly) concentrations extend further downward. Therefore E39C-A realistically covers the altitude of maximum ozone depletion in the stratosphere. The location of the ozonopause, i.e. the transition from low tropospheric to high stratospheric ozone values, is also clearly improved in E39C-A. Not only the spatial distribution but also the temporal evolution of stratospheric Cly in the past is realistically reproduced in E39C-A which is an important step towards a more reliable projection of future changes, especially of stratospheric ozone. Despite a large number of improvements there are still remaining model deficiencies like a general overestimation of total column ozone.

One of the most significant events in the evolution of the ozone layer over southern mid-latitudes since the late 1970s was the large decrease observed in 1985. This event remains unexplained and a detailed investigation of the mechanisms responsible for the event has not previously been undertaken. In this study, the 1985 Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude total column ozone anomaly is analyzed in detail based on observed daily total column ozone fields, stratospheric dynamical fields, and calculated diagnostics of stratospheric mixing. The 1985 anomaly appears to result from a combination of (i) an anomaly in the meridional circulation resulting from the westerly phase of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), (ii) weaker transport of ozone from its tropical mid-stratosphere source across the sub-tropical barrier to mid-latitudes related to the particular phasing of the QBO with respect to the annual cycle, and (iii) a solar cycle induced reduction in ozone. Similar QBO and solar cycle influences prevailed in 1997 and 2006 when again total column ozone was found to be suppressed over southern mid-latitudes. The results based on observations are compared and contrasted with analyses of ozone and dynamical fields from the ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM coupled chemistry-climate model (hereafter referred to as E39C). Equatorial winds in the E39C model are nudged towards observed winds between 10° S and 10° N and the ability of this model to produce an ozone anomaly in 1985, similar to that observed, confirms the role of the QBO in effecting the anomaly.

Changes in climate are likely to drive changes in stratospheric mixing with associated implications for changes in transport of ozone from tropical source regions to higher latitudes, transport of water vapour and source gas degradation products from the tropical tropopause layer into the mid-latitude lower stratosphere, and changes in the meridional distribution of long-lived trace gases. To diagnose long-term changes in stratospheric mixing, global monthly fields of Lyapunov exponents were calculated on the 450 K, 550 K, and 650 K isentropic surfaces by applying a trajectory model to wind fields from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses over the period 1979 to 2005. Potential underlying geophysical drivers of trends and variability in these mixing fields were investigated by applying a least squares regression model, which included basis functions for a mean annual cycle, seasonally dependent linear trends, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the solar cycle, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to zonal mean time series of the Lyapunov exponents. Long-term positive trends in mixing are apparent over southern middle to high latitudes at 450 K through most of the year, while negative trends over southern high latitudes are apparent at 650 K from May to August. Wintertime negative trends in mixing over northern mid-latitudes are apparent at 550 K and 650 K. Over low latitudes, within 40° of the equator, the QBO exerts a strong influence on mixing at all three analysis levels. This QBO influence is strongly modulated by the annual cycle and shows a phase shift across the subtropical mixing barrier. Solar cycle and ENSO influences on mixing are generally not significant. The diagnosed long-term changes in mixing should aid the interpretation of trends in stratospheric trace gases.

International audience; The performance of 18 coupled Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) is evaluated using qualitative and quantitative diagnostics. Trends in tropopause quantities in the tropics and the extratropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) are analyzed. A quantitative grading methodology for evaluating CCMs is extended to include variability and used to develop four different grades for tropical tropopause temperature and pressure, water vapor and ozone. Four of the 18 models and the multi‐model mean meet quantitative and qualitative standards for reproducing key processes in the TTL. Several diagnostics are performed on a subset of the models analyzing the Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL), Lagrangian cold point and TTL transit time. Historical decreases in tropical tropopause pressure and decreases in water vapor are simulated, lending confidence to future projections. The models simulate continued decreases in tropopause pressure in the 21st century, along with ∼1K increases per century in cold point tropopause temperature and 0.5–1 ppmv per century increases in water vapor above the tropical tropopause. TTL water vapor increases below the cold point. In two models, these trends are associated with 35% increases in TTL cloud fraction. These changes indicate significant perturbations to TTL processes, specifically to deep convective heating and humidity transport. Ozone in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere has significant and hemispheric asymmetric trends. O3 is projected to increase by nearly 30% due to ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and due to enhancements in the stratospheric circulation. These UTLS ozone trends may have significant effects in the TTL and the troposphere.

The connection between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the northern polar stratosphere has been established from observations and atmospheric modeling. Here a systematic inter-comparison of the sensitivity of the modeled stratosphere to ENSO in Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) is reported. This work uses results from a number of the CCMs included in the 2006 ozone assessment. In the lower stratosphere, the mean of all model simulations reports a warming of the polar vortex during strong ENSO events in February–March, consistent with but smaller than the estimate from satellite observations and ERA40 reanalysis. This anomalous warming is associated with an anomalous dynamical increase of total ozone north of 70° N that is accompanied by coherent total ozone decrease in the Tropics, in agreement with that deduced from the NIWA total ozone database, implying an increased residual circulation in the mean of all model simulations, during ENSO. The spread in the model responses is partly due to the large internal stratospheric variability but it is shown that it crucially depends on the representation of the tropospheric ENSO teleconnection in the models.