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This study evaluates the projected impact of climate change on wheat production in Northwest Tunisia, specifically at Medjez El Beb (36.67 m, 9.74°) and Slougia (36.66 m, 9.6°), for the period 2041–2070. Using the CNRM-CM5.1 and GFDL-ESM2M climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, coupled with the AquaCrop and SIMPLE crop growth models, we compared model outputs with observed data from 2016 to 2020 to assess model performance. The objective was to determine how different climate models and scenarios affect wheat yields, biomass, and growth duration. Under RCP4.5, projected average yields are 7.709 q/ha with AquaCrop and 7.703 q/ha with GFDL-ESM2M. Under RCP8.5, yields are 7.765 tons/ha with AquaCrop and 7.198 q/ha with SIMPLE Crop, indicating that reduced emissions could improve wheat growth conditions. Biomass predictions showed significant variation: in Medjez El Beb, average biomass is 17.99 tons/ha with AquaCrop and 18.73 tons/ha with SIMPLE Crop under RCP8.5. In Slougia, average biomass is 18.90 tons/ha with AquaCrop and 19.04 tons/ha with SIMPLE Crop under the same scenario. Growth duration varied, with AquaCrop predicting 175 days in Medjez El Beb and 178 days in Slougia, while SIMPLE Crop predicted 180 days in Medjez El Beb and 182 days in Slougia, with a standard deviation of ±12 days for both models. SIMPLE Crop demonstrated higher accuracy in predicting growth cycle duration and yield, particularly in Slougia, with mean bias errors of −3.6 days and 2.26 q/ha. Conversely, AquaCrop excelled in biomass prediction with an agreement index of 0.97 at Slougia. Statistical analysis revealed significant yield differences based on climate models and emission scenarios, with GFDL-ESM2M under RCP4.5 showing more favorable conditions. These findings emphasize the importance of model selection and calibration for accurately projecting the agricultural impacts of climate change, and they provide insights for enhancing prediction accuracy and informing adaptation strategies for sustainable wheat production in Northwest Tunisia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on the assessment of the impact of climate change on the efficiency of ambient air aeration and the dynamics of Rhyzopertha dominica, which is a major pest that infests wheat stored in Tunisia. To project future climate conditions for the period 2041–2070, two climate models, namely MPI-ESM1.2 and CNRMCM5.1, were used under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The study examined the historical and projected feasibility of aeration in six natural regions located in northwestern Tunisia, where wheat is the main crop, and investigated the potential consequences of climate change on the dynamics of R. dominica. Using a heat and mass transfer model in an unaerated wheat silo, the temperature and moisture distributions in the grain mass were used to predict the development, reproduction, and survival of R. dominica. The results revealed a decline in favorable aeration hours due to climate change, resulting in an average reduction of 25% across the six regions. This reduction in aerated hours could significantly affect the effectiveness of aeration as a means of pest control. The mean difference comparisons, based on Tukey's honestly significant difference (HSD) test, revealed a significant effect of climate change on the developmental parameters of R. dominica for the period 2041–2070 compared to the period 1970–1997. According to the insect dynamic model, future climate scenarios are expected to induce changes in the development duration, reproduction, and survival rates of R. dominica. The model predicts a (i) 10–15% extension in the development duration, (ii) 20–30% decrease in reproduction, and (iii) 5–10% decrease in survival relative to the historical period. These results underscore the critical importance of implementing adaptive pest management strategies for stored wheat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]