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A common deficiency in coupled atmosphere‐ocean models is the lack of stratocumulus clouds near the west coasts of continents and shallow cumulus clouds over the trade wind regions. In this study, we examine changes of large‐scale trade wind environment associated with hydrometeors‐radiation‐circulation interactions, focusing over the south‐central Pacific, by carrying out experiments with falling ice (snow) radiative effects (FIREs) on or off using the CESM1‐CAM5 coupled model. Compared to observations/reanalysis data and an experiment with FIREs on (SON), an experiment with FIREs off (NOS) tends to have too‐high (0.3–0.9 K) sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern half of the Pacific, and weaker surface wind stress over the northeast side but stronger stress over the southwest side of the study domain. The difference between NOS and SON shows lower‐tropospheric wind fields with a cyclonic‐like wind pattern, which is similar to surface wind stress, accompanied with weaker subsidence over the northeast side. The cyclonic‐like wind pattern causes stronger moisture convergence, accompanied with horizontal warm and moist advections, and stronger effective ascending motion over the northeast side of the study domain, building large‐scale environmental conditions to facilitate middle‐ and high‐clouds instead of shallow cumulus clouds in nature. This large‐scale environment in conjunction with the higher SSTs may be also responsible for the lack of the stratocumulus clouds near the coast of America. Remaining biases in SON such as the double intertropical convergence zone and parameterization deficiencies may also prevent a more realistic simulation of trade wind clouds and their associated large‐scale environments. Plain Language Summary: It has been reported that current coupled general circulation models (GCMs) show biases in large‐scale environments, for example, too‐weak subsidence, too‐warm SSTs and too‐weak surface wind stress and trade‐winds, along with too‐few low‐level clouds but with too‐frequent mid‐ and high‐level clouds over the Pacific trade‐wind regions in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This study examined changes of the trade‐wind environment over South Pacific in CESM1‐CAM5 by turning on and off falling ice radiative effects (FIREs). We found that without falling ice radiative effects, that is the case for most CMIP5 models, ascent, warm and moist horizontal advections, and moisture convergence facilitate the occurrence of mid‐ and high‐clouds over trade‐wind regions relative to that with falling ice radiative effects. With falling ice radiative effects on, CESM1‐CAM5 reduced biases in sea surface temperature, winds, surface wind stress, temperature advection and moisture advection/convergence conduce to lower clouds. Key Points: Changes of the trade‐wind environment over South Pacific in CESM1‐CAM5 due to falling ice radiative effects (FIREs) on and off are examinedWith FIREs off, horizontal warm and moist horizontal advections, and moisture convergence facilitate the occurrence of mid and high cloudsWith FIREs, reduced biases in sea surface temperature (SST), winds, wind stress, temperature and moisture advections, and moisture convergence conduce to lower clouds [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The constant flux layer assumption simplifies the problem of atmospheric surface layer (ASL) dynamics and is an underlying assumption of Monin‐Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), which is ubiquitously applied to model interfacial exchange and atmospheric turbulence. Within the marine environment, the measurements necessary to confirm the local ASL as a constant flux layer are rarely available, namely: direct observations of the near‐surface flux gradients. Recently, the Research Platform FLIP was deployed with a meteorological mast that resolved the momentum and heat flux gradients from 3 to 16 m above the ocean surface. Here, we present an assessment of the prevalence of the constant flux layer within the ASL, using an approach that accounted for the role of wave‐coherent motion in air and evaluated each observed flux gradien. Our analysis revealed that only 30%–40% of momentum flux gradients were approximately constant; for the heat fluxes, this increased to 50%–60%. For low winds, the stationarity of local turbulence was critical to the constant flux layer's validity, but resulted in excising a large proportion of the observed profiles. Under moderate wind speeds, swell‐wind alignment was associated with momentum flux divergence. Our findings suggest that the constant flux layer, as it is conventionally defined, is not generally valid over the ocean. This holds significant implications for measuring air‐sea fluxes from single point sources and marine applications of MOST. Plain Language Summary: Our ability to quantify the exchange of energy and material (e.g., gas) between the atmosphere and ocean has greatly improved over the second half 20th and into the beginning of the 21st centuries. While there have been significant technological and methodological advancements within the community of researchers studying this problem, a central theory to the physical framework we use to conduct the majority of studies has not been adequately validated or assessed using observations over the ocean. The constant flux layer model (or assumption) greatly simplifies the physical problem of studying the atmosphere near the ocean surface, but the data necessary to validate this theory are rarely collected. A recent field campaign deployed a unique ocean‐going platform that enabled us to conduct this much needed evaluation. We found strong evidence suggesting that the constant flux layer model is only valid within the general marine environment at most 50%–60% of the time. We also found that the prevalence of this theory's validity differed between the exchange (i.e., flux) of kinetic energy and heat, two critical parameters controlling the atmosphere‐ocean system. Our findings suggest that the simplified physics we rely on to study air‐sea exchange needs to be critically re‐evaluated. Key Points: Profiles of eddy covariance fluxes were used to evaluate the prevalence of the constant flux layer above ocean wavesOnly one third of momentum flux gradients were deemed "constant"; non‐divergence was substatially higher for the heat fluxesFlux divergence was strongly linked with turbulence non‐stationarity, swell‐wind alignment, and moderate‐strong stability conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have indicated that a sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) dipole in the subtropical South Pacific (SPSD), which peaks in austral summer (January–March), is dominated by thermodynamic processes. Observational analyses and numerical experiments were used to investigate the influence of SPSD mode on the equatorial Pacific. The model is an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a reduced-gravity ocean model. An SPSD-like SSTA was imposed on 1 March, after which the model was free to evolve until the end of the year. The coupled model response showed that warm SSTAs extend toward the equator with northwesterly wind anomalies and then grow to El Niño–like anomalies by the end of the year. SPSD forcing weakens southeasterly trade winds and propagates warm SSTAs toward the equator through wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. Meanwhile, relaxation of trade winds in the eastern equatorial Pacific depresses the thermocline and upwelling. Eastward anomalous currents near the equator cause warm horizontal advection in the central Pacific. Further experiments showed that thermodynamic coupling mainly acts on but is not essential for SSTA propagation, either from the subtropics to the equator or westward along the equator, while oceanic dynamic coupling alone also appears to be able to initiate anomalies on the equator and plays a critical role in SSTA growth in the tropical Pacific. This is consistent with observational analyses, which indicated that influence of WES feedback on SSTA propagation associated with the SPSD is limited. Finally, the warm pole close to the equator plays the dominant role in inducing the El Niño–like anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the trade-wind boundary layer structure using long-term measurements at a site representative of dynamical regimes with moderate subsidence or weak ascent. We compare these with ECMWF's Integrated Forecast System and 10 CMIP5 models. By using single-time step output at a single location, we find that models can produce a fairly realistic trade-wind layer structure in long-term means, but with unrealistic variability at shorter-time scales. The unrealistic variability in modeled cloudiness near the lifting condensation level (LCL) is due to stronger than observed relationships with mixed-layer relative humidity (RH) and temperature stratification at the mixed-layer top. Those relationships are weak in observations, or even of opposite sign, which can be explained by a negative feedback of convection on cloudiness. Cloudiness near cumulus tops at the trade-wind inversion instead varies more pronouncedly in observations on monthly time scales, whereby larger cloudiness relates to larger surface winds and stronger trade-wind inversions. However, these parameters appear to be a prerequisite, rather than strong controlling factors on cloudiness, because they do not explain submonthly variations in cloudiness. Models underestimate the strength of these relationships and diverge in particular in their responses to large-scale vertical motion. No model stands out by reproducing the observed behavior in all respects. These findings suggest that climate models do not realistically represent the physical processes that underlie the coupling between trade-wind clouds and their environments in present-day climate, which is relevant for how we interpret modeled cloud feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Helicopter-borne observations of the impact of turbulent mixing and cloud microphysical properties in shallow trade wind cumuli are presented. The measurements were collected during the Cloud, Aerosol, Radiation and Turbulence in the Trade Wind Regime over Barbados (CARRIBA) project. Basic meteorological parameters (3D wind vector, air temperature, and relative humidity), cloud condensation nuclei concentrations, and cloud microphysical parameters (droplet number, size distribution, and liquid water content) are measured by the Airborne Cloud Turbulence Observation System (ACTOS), which is fixed by a 160-m-long rope underneath a helicopter flying with a true airspeed of approximately 20 m s−1. Clouds at different evolutionary stages were sampled. A total of 300 clouds are classified into actively growing, decelerated, and dissolving clouds. The mixing process of these cloud categories is investigated by correlating the cloud droplet number concentration and cubed droplet mean volume diameter. A significant tendency to more inhomogeneous mixing with increasing cloud lifetime is observed. Furthermore, the mixing process and its effects on droplet number concentration, droplet size, and cloud liquid water content are statistically evaluated. It is found that, in dissolving clouds, liquid water content and droplet number concentration are decreased by about 50% compared to actively growing clouds. Conversely, the droplet size remains almost constant, which can be attributed to the existence of a humid shell around the cloud that prevents cloud droplets from rapid evaporation after entrainment of premoistened air. Moreover, signs of secondary activation are found, which results in a more difficult interpretation of observed mixing diagrams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seasonality in large-scale meteorology and low-level cloud amount (CClow) is explored for a 5° × 5° area in the North Atlantic trades, using 12 years of ERA-Interim and MODIS data, supported by 2 years of Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO) measurements. From boreal winter to summer, large-scale subsiding motion changes to rising motion, along with an increase in sea surface temperature, a clockwise turning and weakening of low-level winds, and reduced cold-air advection, lower-tropospheric stability (LTS), and surface fluxes. However, CClow is relatively invariant around 30%, except for a minimum of 20% in fall. This minimum is only pronounced when MODIS scenes with large high-level cloud amount are excluded, and a winter maximum in CClow is more pronounced at the BCO. On monthly time scales, wind speed has the best correlation with CClow. Existing large-eddy simulations suggest that the wind speed-CClow correlation may be explained by a direct deepening response of the trade wind layer to stronger winds. Large correlations of wind direction and advection with CClow also suggest that large-scale flow patterns matter. Smaller correlations with CClow are observed for LTS and surface evaporation, as well as negligible correlations for relative humidity (RH) and vertical velocity. However, these correlations considerably increase when only summer is considered. On synoptic time scales, all correlations drop substantially, whereby wind speed, RH, and surface sensible heat flux remain the leading parameters. The lack of a single strong predictor emphasizes that the combined effect of parameters is necessary to explain variations in CClow in the trades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A monthly index based on the persistence of the westerly winds over the English Chanel is constructed for 1685-2008 using daily data from ships' logbooks and comprehensive marine meteorological datasets. The so-called Westerly Index (WI) provides the longest instrumental record of atmospheric circulation currently available. Anomalous WI values are associated with spatially coherent climatic signals in temperature and precipitation over large areas of Europe, which are stronger for precipitation than for temperature and in winter and summer than in transitional seasons. Overall, the WI series accord with the known European climatic history, and reveal that the frequency of the westerlies in the eastern Atlantic during the twentieth century and the Late Maunder Minimum was not exceptional in the context of the last three centuries. It is shown that the WI provides additional and complementary information to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. The analysis of WI series during the industrial era indicates an overall good agreement with the winter and high-summer NAO, with the exception of several multidecadal periods of weakened correlation. These decoupled periods between the frequency and the intensity of the zonal flow are interpreted on the basis of several sources of non-stationarity affecting the centres of the variability of the North Atlantic and their teleconnections. Comparisons with NAO reconstructions and long instrumental indices extending back to the seventeenth century suggest that similar situations have occurred in the past, which call for caution when reconstructing the past atmospheric circulation from climatic proxies. The robustness and extension of its climatic signal, the length of the series and its instrumental nature make the WI an excellent benchmark for proxy calibration in Europe and Greenland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT We investigate the variations of total and extreme precipitations over China and the United States, focusing on long-term changes. We also explain the features of precipitation by changes in sea surface temperature ( SST) and atmospheric circulation. Features of total precipitation and the ratio of extreme to total precipitation are different between China and the United States, and differences occur in both annual and seasonal means. Both total precipitation and precipitation ratio show large seasonal and regional variations over China, but change modestly over the United States Annually, China total precipitation changes insignificantly and the ratio shows only a slight positive trend. However, the US annual total precipitation increases significantly, although the ratio decreases moderately. In China, the ratio exhibits positive trends in all seasons and total precipitation shows small positive trends except a negative trend in fall. The US total precipitation increases remarkably in all seasons except winter when a slight decrease occurs, and the ratio decreases in winter and summer but increases in spring and fall. The change in China precipitation ratio has a strong link to SSTs around the Indian Ocean and the South and East China Seas, and the change in US total precipitation is associated with changes in the Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific SSTs. These relationships become weaker when the trend of total precipitation or precipitation ratio is removed, indicating an impact of SST on the long-term change in precipitation. The trends of US total precipitation and China precipitation ratio are also linked to the long-term changes inatmospheric circulation including the trade wind, the North Pacific anticyclone, and the circulation patternsover Asia. In most cases, the total and extreme precipitations are associated with similar SST and atmospheric patterns, except in China where the annual extreme precipitation is associated with SST and circulation features as is the precipitation ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tree fern genus Cibotium comprises nine species distributed in tropical regions of Asia, Mesoamerica, and the Hawaiian Islands. The four Hawaiian species are endemic to the Hawaiian Islands. The goals of this paper were to determine the relationships among the Cibotium species, determine whether the Hawaiian species are monophyletic, and infer the dispersal pathway likely responsible for delivering an ancestral Cibotium species to the Hawaiian Islands. Molecular phylogenetic analyses based on four coding and five non-coding plastid DNA sequences supported Hawaiian Cibotium as monophyletic, suggesting a single colonization of the Hawaiian Islands. Hawaiian Cibotium are most closely related to species in Mesoamerica. If the ancestor of Hawaiian Cibotium dispersed to the Hawaiian Islands via wind dispersed spores, our analyses suggest the trade winds or storms delivered spores from Mesoamerica or the Hawaiian Islands were colonized first by a species from Asia, followed by subsequent dispersal to Mesoamerica from Hawai'i. Our analyses do not allow us to favor one hypothesis over the other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major question for climate studies is to quantify the role of turbulent eddy fluxes in maintaining the observed ocean-atmosphere state. It has been argued that eddy fluxes keep the midlatitude atmosphere in a state that is marginally critical to baroclinic instability, which provides a powerful constraint on the response of the atmosphere to changes in external forcing. No comparable criterion appears to exist for the ocean. This is particularly surprising for the Southern Ocean, a region whose dynamics are very similar to the midlatitude atmosphere, but observations and numerical models suggest that the currents are supercritical. This paper aims to resolve this apparent contradiction using a combination of theoretical considerations and eddy-resolving numerical simulations. It is shown that both marginally critical and supercritical mean states can be obtained in an idealized diabatically forced (and thus atmosphere-like) Boussinesq system, if the thermal expansion coefficient is varied from large atmosphere-like values to small oceanlike values. The argument is made that the difference in the thermal expansion coefficient dominantly controls the difference in the deformation scale between the two fluids and ultimately renders eddies ineffective in maintaining a marginally critical state in the limit of small thermal expansion coefficients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of an inland plateau on the tropical sea breeze is considered in terms of idealized numerical experiments, with a particular emphasis on offshore effects. The sea breeze is modeled as the response to an oscillating interior heat source over land. The parameter space for the calculations is defined by a nondimensional wind speed, a scaled plateau height, and the nondimensional heating amplitude. The experiments show that the inland plateau tends to significantly strengthen the land-breeze part of the circulation, as compared to the case without terrain. The strengthening of the land breeze is tied to blocking of the sea-breeze density current during the warm phase of the cycle. The blocked sea breeze produces a pool of relatively cold, stagnant air at the base of the plateau, which in turn produces a stronger land-breeze density current the following morning. Experiments show that the strength of the land breeze increases with the terrain height, at least for moderate values of the height. For very large terrain, the sea breeze is apparently blocked entirely, and further increases in terrain height lead to only small changes in land-breeze intensity and propagation. Details of the dynamics are described in terms of the transition from linear to nonlinear heating amplitudes, as well as for cases with and without background winds. The results show that for the present experiments, significant offshore effects are tied to nonlinear frontal propagation, as opposed to quasi-linear wave features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of diverse datasets from meteorological field campaigns often involves the use of separate 1D or combined 2D plots from various applications, making the determination of spatial and temporal relationships and correlations among these data, and the overall synthesis of information, extremely challenging. Presented here is a new 3D visualization tool, the Aircraft and Radar Data Collocation and Analysis in 3D (ARCA3D), that can combine data collected from different sources and at different scales, utilizing advanced visualization and user interface techniques, which allows for easier comparison and synthesis of such disparate data. The 3D tool is demonstrated with aircraft-based microphysical probe data and ground-based dual-polarization radar data all collected during the Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) field campaign. The 3D volumes of radar data can be interactively selected and quantitatively probed, while aircraft-measured variables can be viewed along the aircraft track plotted within the 3D radar volumes or plotted as time series within regions of interest relative to the radar echoes. The greatest benefits of the new software, the 3D viewing of large radar and aircraft datasets with user-driven controls, are difficult to communicate here in a static, 2D written medium, but the application of the tool toward a research problem is presented to elucidate the impacts of these benefits. The ARCA3D software is used to investigate the possible role of giant aerosol particles in the development of precipitation in trade wind cumuli. The temporal trends in the spatial location of the maximum differential reflectivity echoes within the clouds are examined with respect to the ambient giant aerosol number concentration and the measured cloud-base droplet number concentrations on 10 days. The results indicate that in trade wind cumuli of sufficient depth, giant aerosol may determine the original location of the earliest differential reflectivity maximum echo, and thus the first raindrops when present in higher number concentrations. However, when the giant aerosol are less plentiful, the number of cloud droplets activated above the cloud base may also play a role in determining the location of the earliest maximum differential reflectivity echo, and thus the earliest raindrops, in these trade wind cumuli. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems generally represent the most productive large marine ecosystems of the world's oceans, in terms of both primary production rates and tonnages of exploitable fish produced. The Peruvian upwelling system, in particular, stands out as a major factor in world fish production. The Pacific trade winds have traditionally been considered to be the primary driving force for the upwelling system off Peru, but are projected to weaken as climate change proceeds. This leads to concern that the upwelling process in the Peru system, to which its productivity is linked, may likewise weaken. However, other mechanisms involving greenhouse-associated intensification of thermal low-pressure cells over the coastal landmasses of upwelling regions suggest general intensification of wind-driven ocean upwelling in coastal upwelling regions of the world's oceans. But although certain empirical results have supported this expectation, it has not been consistently corroborated in climate model simulations, possibly because the scale of the coastal intensification may be small relative to the scales that are appropriately reflected in the standard models. Here we summarize available evidence for the intensification mechanism and present a proxy test that uses variations in water vapor, the dominant natural greenhouse gas, to offer multiple-realization empirical evidence for action of the proposed mechanism in the real world situation. While many potential consequences to the future of marine ecosystems would codepend on climate change-related changes in the thermocline and nutricline structures, an important subset, involving potential increased propensities for hypoxia, noxious gas eruptions, toxic red tide blooms, and/or jellyfish outbreaks, may depend more directly on changes in the upwelling-favorable wind itself. A prospective role of fisheries in either mitigating or reinforcing this particular class of effects is suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implied ocean heat transport ( To) based on net surface energy budgets is computed for two versions of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM, version 3.0) general circulation model (GCM). The first version is the standard CAM with parameterized convection. The second is the multiscale modeling framework (MMF), in which parameterized convection is replaced with a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model in each GCM grid column. Although global-mean net surface energy totals are similar for both models, differences in the geographic distributions of the component errors lead to distinctly different To for each model, with CAM’s To generally agreeing with observationally based To estimates, and the MMF’s To producing northward transport at all latitudes north of ∼50°S. Analysis of component error sources in the To calculation identifies needed improvements in the MMF. Net surface shortwave radiation and latent heat fluxes over the oceans are the primary causes of To errors in the MMF. Surface shortwave radiation biases in the MMF are associated with liquid and/or ice water content biases in tropical and extratropical convection and a deficit of marine stratocumulus clouds. It is expected that tropical ice water contents in the MMF can be made more realistic via improvements to the cloud microphysics parameterization. MMF marine stratocumulus clouds are overly sensitive to low-level relative humidity and form only with nearly saturated conditions and a shallow boundary layer. Latent heat flux errors in the MMF are amplifications of those found in the CAM and are concentrated in the trade wind regime and the Asian monsoon region and the adjacent western Pacific Ocean. Potential improvements to To are estimated by replacing either simulated net surface shortwave or latent heat fluxes with those from observations and recomputing To. When observed shortwave fluxes are used, both CAM and MMF produce greatly improved To curves for both hemispheres. When To is computed using observed latent heat fluxes, CAM To degrades slightly and MMF To improves, especially in the sign of Southern Hemisphere transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air temperatures in the trade wind inversion (~850 hPa) over the Caribbean have been rising much faster than sea temperatures. This is associated with an accelerated Hadley circulation, with sinking motions over the Caribbean corresponding with increasing rising motion over the Amazon. The sinking motions induce a faster rate of warming and drying in the trade wind inversion than at other levels. Much of the trend in Caribbean climate is attributable to physical mechanisms; changes in atmospheric composition play a secondary role. Smoke and dust plumes from Africa, drifting westward across the Atlantic, enhance the greenhouse effect in an elevated (1–3 km) layer. A stabilized lower atmosphere across the Caribbean has contributed to warming and drying trends over the twentieth century which are projected to continue. The atmosphere is warming faster than the ocean, causing a decline in sensible heat fluxes that fuel tropical cyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of the north Australian wet season is examined by performing cluster analysis on the wind and thermodynamic information contained in the 2300 UTC radiosonde data at Darwin for 49 wet seasons (September–April) from 1957/58 to 2005/06. Five objectively derived regimes of the wet season are obtained and are found to differ significantly in their synoptic environment, cloud patterns, and rainfall distributions. One regime is primarily associated with the trade wind regime. Two regimes are associated with the lead up to and break periods of the monsoon at Darwin. A fourth regime is clearly identified with the active monsoon at Darwin and is offered as a definition of monsoon onset. This regime captures the active monsoon environment associated with significant widespread rainfall. The fifth regime is a mixed regime, with some days associated with the inactive monsoon, a period of westerly zonal winds at Darwin associated with relatively suppressed convection compared with the active monsoon. Other days for this regime are break period conditions with a low-level westerly flow below 900 hPa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative estimates of precipitation in a typical undisturbed trade wind region are derived from 2 months of radar reflectivity data and compared to the meteorological environment determined from soundings, surface flux, and airborne-lidar data. Shallow precipitation was ubiquitous, covering on average about 2% of the region and contributing to at least half of the total precipitation. Echo fractions on the scale of the radar domain range between 0% and 10% and vary greatly within a period from a few hours to a day. Variability in precipitation relates most strongly to variability in humidity and the zonal wind speed, although greater inversion heights and deeper clouds are also evident at times of more rain. The analysis herein suggests that subtle fluctuations in both the strength of the easterlies and in subsidence play a major role in regulating humidity and hence precipitation, even within a given meteorological regime (here, the undisturbed trades). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of air–sea coupling on tropical climate variability is investigated in a coupled linear inverse model (LIM) derived from the simultaneous and 6-day lag covariances of observed 7-day running mean departures from the annual cycle. The model predicts the covariances at all other lags. The predicted and observed lag covariances, as well as the associated power spectra, are generally found to agree within sampling uncertainty. This validates the LIM’s basic premise that beyond daily time scales, the evolution of tropical atmospheric and oceanic anomalies is effectively linear and stochastically driven. It also justifies a linear diagnosis of air–sea coupling in the system. The results show that air–sea coupling has a very small effect on subseasonal atmospheric variability. It has much larger effects on longer-term variability, in both the atmosphere and the ocean, including greatly increasing the amplitude of ENSO and lengthening its dominant period from 2 to 4 years. Consistent with these results, the eigenvectors of the system’s dynamical evolution operator also separate into two distinct, but nonorthogonal, subspaces: one governing the nearly uncoupled subseasonal dynamics and the other governing the strongly coupled longer-term dynamics. These subspaces arise naturally from the LIM analysis; no bandpass frequency filtering need be applied. One implication of this remarkably clean separation of the uncoupled and coupled dynamics is that GCM errors in anomalous tropical air–sea coupling may cause substantial errors on interannual and longer time scales but probably not on the subseasonal scales associated with the MJO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mid-latitude eddies are an important component of the climatic system due to their role in transporting heat, moisture and momentum from the tropics to the poles, and also for the precipitation associated with their fronts, especially in winter. We study northern hemisphere storm-tracks at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and their influence on precipitation using ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). The difference with PMIP1 results in terms of sea-surface temperature forcing, fundamental for storm-track dynamics, is large, especially in the eastern North Atlantic where sea-ice extends less to the south in OAGCMs compared to atmospheric-only GCMs. Our analyses of the physics of the eddies are based on the equations of eddy energetics. All models simulate a consistent southeastward shift of the North Pacific storm-track in winter, related to a similar displacement of the jet stream, partly forced by the eddies themselves. Precipitation anomalies are consistent with storm-track changes, with a southeastward displacement of the North Pacific precipitation pattern. The common features of North Atlantic changes in the LGM simulations consist of a thinning of the storm-track in its western part and an amplification of synoptic activity to the southeast, in the region between the Azores Islands and the Iberian Peninsula, which reflects on precipitation. This southeastward extension is related to a similar displacement of the jet, partly forced by the eddies. In the western North Atlantic, the synoptic activity anomalies are at first order related to baroclinic generation term anomalies, but the mean-flow baroclinicity increase due to the presence of the Laurentide ice-sheet is partly balanced by a loss of eddy efficiency to convert energy from the mean flow. Moisture availability in this region is greatly reduced due to more advection of dry polar air by stationary waves, leading to less synoptic-scale latent heat release and hence less precipitation also. In terms of seasonality, the stormy season is shifted later in the year by a few days to a month depending on the season and the model considered. This shift does not directly reflect on the first-order seasonal cycle of precipitation, which also depends on other mechanisms, especially in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We examine the diatom flux collected between November 1996 and April 1998, and between January and October 1999 at the time-series study site in the Cariaco Basin, off Venezuela. The temporal dynamics of the total diatom flux mainly reflect seasonal, trade wind-driven changes in surface hydrographic conditions, including changes associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Highest diatom fluxes (>1.8×107 valvesm−2 d−1) coincided with the upwelling season in boreal winters 1997 and 1999. Changes in the composition of the diverse diatom community reflect variations in hydrographic and atmospheric conditions, as well as nutrient availability. Cyclotella litoralis, a neritic diatom typical of nutrient-rich waters, along with resting spores of several Chaetoceros spp., dominate during periods of high diatom flux, following trade wind-driven upwelling. During the boreal summers of 1997 and 1999, nutrient-depleted surface waters resulted in low diatom fluxes (<5.2×106 valvesm−2 d−1). The seasonal pattern of high diatom production was altered from July 1997 through April 1998, when the ENSO affected the Caribbean Sea. The occurrence of ENSO during boreal winter 1997–1998 caused a major change in the qualitative composition of the diatom assemblage: the highly diverse diatom assemblage was composed of a mixture of pelagic (Nitzschia bicapitata, Thalassionema nitzschioides var. inflata, T. nitzschioides var. parva, Azpeitia tabularis) and coastal species (C. litoralis, resting spores of Chaetoceros, T. nitzschioides var. nitzschioides). The simultaneous occurrence of neritic and open-ocean diatoms during boreal summers reflects the fact that the Cariaco Basin is influenced by both offshore and coastal waters, with considerable short-term variability in hydrographic conditions and nutrient availability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: At present, the climate in south-west Scandinavia is predominantly controlled by westerlies carrying moist Atlantic air, which forms a main source of precipitation in all seasons. Past variations in the ratio between precipitation and evaporation (effective precipitation) from terrestrial sites, however, may indicate changes in the degree of maritime influence. Palaeoclimatic archives in this region are thus ideally situated to study past changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. In this study, multi-proxy comparisons of records from three peat bogs and two lakes are used to reconstruct regional-scale variations of effective precipitation in south-west Sweden during the Late Holocene. The total aeolian sediment influx into two peat bogs is used as a proxy for storm activity. The frequency of storm phases increases strongly after ca 2500calyrsBP. Dry conditions occur on a regional scale around 4800–4400, 2000–1700, 1300–1000, 700–500 and 300–100calyrsBP. In addition, a comparison to winter precipitation reconstructed from four Norwegian glaciers shows similar variations during the past ca 2000 years. This indicates that the climate in both regions was controlled by large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics of the North Atlantic region. The strong variability of effective precipitation and storm activity after ca 2500calyrsBP indicates a highly variable climate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper is mainly concerned with the understanding and attribution of the recent observed freshening trend in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean. From previous coupled model studies and an analysis of the long HadCM3 control simulation, it seems unlikely that this freshening trend is a direct consequence of anthropogenically forced climate change. It is shown in this paper that the subpolar North Atlantic can be freshened to the observed degree without invoking substantial large-scale surface freshwater flux changes. The source of freshening can come from a freshwater redistribution within the Arctic/subpolar North Atlantic. The redistribution (involving both liquid water and sea ice) is carried by a perturbed ocean circulation change in the subpolar seas and triggered by deep convection in the Labrador Sea. The freshening can be widespread but mainly in the north and northwest of the subpolar North Atlantic. A sustained 30–40 years freshening trend can be easily identified in specific locations such as the Labrador Sea or in the basin wide integral of freshwater storage. At the peak, the model subpolar North Atlantic can hold around 10,000 km3 of extra freshwater. An analysis of 1,400 years HadCM3 control simulation also reveals a good correlation between freshwater content anomalies and gyre transport in the subpolar North Atlantic on decadal timescales. A general mechanism involving circulation regime changes and freshwater redistribution between the subpolar North Atlantic and the Arctic/Nordic Seas is proposed, which can resolve a number of seemingly contradictory observed changes in the North Atlantic and contributes to the longer term goal of a full understanding of recent North Atlantic fresh water changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous aqua-planet simulations reported in the literature have shown the existence of both single and double inter-tropical convergence zones (ITCZs). In this study, horizontal grid resolution strongly affects ITCZ morphology as well as the amount of tropical precipitation through its influence on resolved dynamics. The grid adaptation capability of our global model enables simulations that separate the influence of tropical and extra-tropical dynamics on both the ITCZ and tropical precipitation. The presence of single versus double ITCZs in our aqua-planet simulations depends on the resolution of convectively coupled equatorial waves. When the tropical resolution is sufficiently high to resolve prominent equatorial waves a double ITCZ occurs, otherwise a single ITCZ occurs. In contrast, tropical resolution does not affect the magnitude of tropical precipitation in our aqua-planet simulations. Instead the magnitude is sensitive to extra-tropical resolution, through its influence on the strength of baroclinic eddies and their forcing of the Hadley circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interplay between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the large scale ocean circulation is inspected in a twentieth century simulation conducted with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model. Significant lead–lag covariance between oceanic and tropospheric variables suggests that the system supports a damped oscillatory mode involving an active ocean–atmosphere coupling, with a typical NAO-like space structure and a 5 years timescale, qualitatively consistent with a mid-latitude delayed oscillator paradigm. The two essential processes governing the oscillation are (1) a negative feedback between ocean gyre circulation and the high latitude SST meridional gradient and (2) a positive feedback between SST and the NAO. The atmospheric NAO pattern appears to have a weaker projection on the ocean meridional overturning, compared to the gyre circulation, which leads to a secondary role for the thermohaline circulation in driving the meridional heat transport, and thus the oscillatory mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the simulation and prediction of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) has been investigated by diagnosing 22-year retrospective forecasts using the Seoul National University coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and its atmospheric GCM (AGCM) forced with SSTs derived from the CGCM. Numerous studies have shown that the ocean–atmosphere coupling has a significant effect on the improvement of ISO simulation and prediction. Contrary to previous studies, this study shows similar results between CGCM and AGCM, not only in regard to the ISO simulation characteristics but also the predictability. The similarities between CGCM and AGCM include (1) the ISO intensity over the entire Asian-monsoon region; (2) the spatiotemporal evolution of the northward propagating ISO (NPISO); and (3) the potential and practical predictability. A notable difference between CGCM and AGCM is the phase relationship between precipitation and SST anomalies. The CGCM and observation exhibits a near-quadrature relationship between precipitation and SST, with the former lagging about two pentads. The AGCM shows a less realistic phase relationship. The similar structure and propagation characteristics of ISO between the CGCM and AGCM suggest that the internal atmospheric dynamics could be more essential to the ISO than the ocean–atmosphere interaction over the Indian monsoon region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diagnostic methods are defined in order to compare two numerical simulations of ocean dynamics in a region of freshwater influence. The first one is a river plume simulation based on a high resolution numerical configuration of the POM coastal ocean model in which mixing parametrizations have been previously defined. The second one is a simulation based on the NEMO Global Ocean Model used for climate simulations in its half-a-degree configuration in which a river inflow is represented as precipitation on two coastal grid cells. Both simulations are forced with the same freshwater inflows and wind stresses. The divergence of volumetric fluxes above and below the halocline are compared. Results show that when an upwelling wind blows, the two models display similar behavior although the impact of lack of precision can be observed in the NEMO configuration. When a downwelling wind blows, the NEMO Global Ocean configuration can not reproduce the coastally trapped baroclinic dynamics because its grid resolution is too coarse. To find a parametrization to help represent these dynamics in ocean general circulation models, a method based on energy conservation is investigated. This method shows that it is possible to link the energy fluxes provided by river inflows to the divergence of energy fluxes integrated over the grid cells of ocean general circulation models. A parametrization of the dynamics created by freshwater inflows is deduced from this method. This enabled creation of a box model that proved to have the same behavior as the fluxes previously computed from the high resolution configuration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (GCM) are typically coupled once every 24 h, excluding the diurnal cycle from the upper ocean. Previous studies attempting to examine the role of the diurnal cycle of the upper ocean and particularly of diurnal SST variability have used models unable to resolve the processes of interest. In part 1 of this study a high vertical resolution ocean GCM configuration with modified physics was developed that could resolve the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean. In this study it is coupled every 3 h to atmospheric GCM to examine the sensitivity of the mean climate simulation and aspects of its variability to the inclusion of diurnal ocean-atmosphere coupling. The inclusion of the diurnal cycle leads to a tropics wide increase in mean sea surface temperature (SST), with the strongest signal being across the equatorial Pacific where the warming increases from 0.2°C in the central and western Pacific to over 0.3°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Much of this warming is shown to be a direct consequence of the rectification of daily mean SST by the diurnal variability of SST. The warming of the equatorial Pacific leads to a redistribution of precipitation from the Inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) toward the equator. In the western Pacific there is an increase in precipitation between Papa new guinea and 170°E of up to 1.2 mm/day, improving the simulation compared to climatology. Pacific sub tropical cells are increased in strength by about 10%, in line with results of part 1 of this study, due to the modification of the exchange of momentum between the equatorially divergent Ekman currents and the geostropic convergence at depth, effectively increasing the dynamical response of the tropical Pacific to zonal wind stresses. During the spring relaxation of the Pacific trade winds, a large diurnal cycle of SST increases the seasonal warming of the equatorial Pacific. When the trade winds then re-intensify, the increase in the dynamical response of the ocean leads to a stronger equatorial upwelling. These two processes both lead to stronger seasonal basin scale feedbacks in the coupled system, increasing the strength of the seasonal cycle of the tropical Pacific sector by around 10%. This means that the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean plays a part in the coupled feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere that maintain the basic state and the timing of the seasonal cycle of SST and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined by use of a large scale MJO index, lag correlations and composites of events. The inclusion of the diurnal cycle leads to a reduction in overall MJO activity. Precipitation composites show that the MJO is stronger and more coherent when the diurnal cycle of coupling is resolved, with the propagation and different phases being far more distinct both locally and to larger lead times across the tropical Indo-Pacific. Part one of this study showed that that diurnal variability of SST is modulated by the MJO and therefore increases the intraseasonal SST response to the different phases of the MJO. Precipitation-based composites of SST variability confirm this increase in the coupled simulations. It is argued that including this has increased the thermodynamical coupling of the ocean and atmosphere on the timescale of the MJO (20–100 days), accounting for the improvement in the MJO strength and coherency seen in composites of precipitation and SST. These results show that the diurnal cycle of ocean–atmosphere interaction has profound impact on a range of up-scale variability in the tropical climate and as such, it is an important feature of the modelled climate system which is currently either neglected or poorly resolved in state of the art coupled models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: High-resolution records of organic and inorganic geochemical proxies document environmental changes during Oceanic Anoxic Event 1b for the Albian upwelling system at DSDP Site 545 Mazagan Plateau off NW Africa. Sea surface temperature estimates based on TEX86 analyses show an abrupt rise by ~3 °C concurrent with a more than 2-fold increase in accumulation rates for organic carbon and siliciclastic sediment components. Geochemical grain-size indicators (Si/Al and Zr/Al) indicate the influx of overall finer grained sediment during the event. Our data suggest that the warming phase associated with OAE 1b resulted in an attenuation of the NE trade wind system and a weakening of local upwelling conditions. Higher amounts of precipitation over NW Africa and an associated higher continental run off may have supplied nutrients to the eastern North Atlantic and fostered the production of organic matter and black shale deposition. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: High-frequency measurements of waves, currents and water column properties were made on a fringing coral reef off northwest Maui, Hawaii, for 15months between 2001 and 2003 to aid in understanding the processes governing flow and turbidity over a range of time scales and their contributions to annual budgets. The summer months were characterized by consistent trade winds and small waves, and under these conditions high-frequency internal bores were commonly observed, there was little net flow or turbidity over the fore reef, and over the reef flat net flow was downwind and turbidity was high. When the trade winds waned or the wind direction deviated from the dominant trade wind orientation, strong alongshore flows occurred into the typically dominant wind direction and lower turbidity was observed across the reef. During the winter, when large storm waves impacted the study area, strong offshore flows and high turbidity occurred on the reef flat and over the fore reef. Over the course of a year, trade wind conditions resulted in the greatest net transport of turbid water due to relatively strong currents, moderate overall turbidity, and their frequent occurrence. Throughout the period of study, near-surface current directions over the fore reef varied on average by more than 41° from those near the seafloor, and the orientation of the currents over the reef flat differed on average by more than 65° from those observed over the fore reef. This shear occurred over relatively short vertical (order of meters) and horizontal (order of hundreds of meters) scales, causing material distributed throughout the water column, including the particles in suspension causing the turbidity (e.g. sediment or larvae) and/or dissolved nutrients and contaminants, to be transported in different directions under constant oceanographic and meteorologic forcing. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In 2005, large sections of southwestern Amazonia experienced one of the most intense droughts of the last hundred years. The drought severely affected human population along the main channel of the Amazon River and its western and southwestern tributaries, the Solimões (also known as the Amazon River in the other Amazon countries) and the Madeira Rivers, respectively. The river levels fell to historic low levels and navigation along these rivers had to be suspended. The drought did not affect central or eastern Amazonia, a pattern different from the El Niño–related droughts in 1926, 1983, and 1998. The choice of rainfall data used influenced the detection of the drought. While most datasets (station or gridded data) showed negative departures from mean rainfall, one dataset exhibited above-normal rainfall in western Amazonia. The causes of the drought were not related to El Niño but to (i) the anomalously warm tropical North Atlantic, (ii) the reduced intensity in northeast trade wind moisture transport into southern Amazonia during the peak summertime season, and (iii) the weakened upward motion over this section of Amazonia, resulting in reduced convective development and rainfall. The drought conditions were intensified during the dry season into September 2005 when humidity was lower than normal and air temperatures were 3°–5°C warmer than normal. Because of the extended dry season in the region, forest fires affected part of southwestern Amazonia. Rains returned in October 2005 and generated flooding after February 2006. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Dustbowl Era drought in the 1930s was the principal Midwest drought of the twentieth century, occurring primarily in late spring–summer [April–August (AMJJA)] when >70% of annual rainfall normally occurred. Another major Midwest drought occurred in the 1950s but primarily in fall–early winter [September–December (SOND)] when normal rainfall was ∼1/2 as much. Optimized canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is applied to forecast AMJJA and SOND Midwest rainfall variability in cross-validated fashion from antecedent DJF and JJA sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the surrounding oceans. These CCA models simulate (i.e., hindcast, not forecast) the Dustbowl Era drought of the 1930s and four of seven secondary AMJJA droughts (≥3-yr duration) during the twentieth century, and the principal Midwest drought of the 1950s and one of three secondary SOND droughts. Diagnosing the model canonical correlations finds the superposition of tropical Pacific cool phases of the quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO) and interdecadal oscillation (IDO) responsible for secondary droughts in AMJJA when ENSO was weak and finds the eastern equatorial Pacific cool phase of the ENSO responsible for secondary droughts during SOND when ENSO was strong. These explain why secondary droughts in AMJJA occurred more often (nearly every decade) and were of longer duration than secondary droughts in SOND when decadal drought tendencies were usually interrupted by ENSO. These diagnostics also find the AMJJA Dustbowl Era drought in the 1930s and the principal SOND drought in the 1950s driven primarily by different phases (i.e., in quadrature) of the pentadecadal signal in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous teleconnections have been identified based upon spatial variability in sea level pressure or lower-tropospheric geopotential height fields. These teleconnections, which are commonly strongest in winter when the mean meridional temperature gradient is large, typically are neither derived from nor linked to changes in the jet stream. Here, winter tropospheric jet stream cores over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are recovered from 6-hourly gridded data and interannual variability in winter jet core position, speed, and pressure are investigated in the context of NH teleconnections. Common methods for researching jet stream speed and position variability may yield unrepresentative results because jet core pressure variability is ignored (only one isobaric surface is evaluated) or pressure variability effects are smoothed (values are vertically averaged across several isobaric surfaces). In this analysis, data are extracted at the surface of maximum wind, thus controlling for jet core pressure variability and allowing for a more representative tracking of three-dimensional jet core variations. In the extratropics, the leading pattern of variability in jet core frequency is correlated with the Arctic Oscillation index (AOI) and appears as an oscillation about the spiral-shaped mean configuration of the winter jet stream. In contrast to previous research, the authors find no evidence of Pacific jet deceleration during positive AOI. The second leading mode of variability appears as a split (merged) winter-mean jet stream in the east Pacific together with a merged (split) winter-mean jet stream over North America, a pattern of change that correlates with the Pacific–North American pattern and is reflected in the amplitude of the long-wave ridge over western North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A geochemical and Sr isotope study was carried out on sediment cores collected from the Logatchev hydrothermal vent site (14°45′N) on the Mid-Atlantic ridge, with the aim of identifying aeolian inputs into the overlying water column. The Logatchev vent site lies beneath the NE trade winds, which transport large amounts of detrital material across the North Atlantic. Sequential dissolution of the sediments has been used to discriminate the detrital fraction from other types of sediment. REE patterns for the acetic acid fraction at the Logatchev site record contributions from biogenic carbonate (seawater-like REE pattern) and oxy-hydroxides, which exhibit positive Eu and negative Ce anomalies, typical of hydrothermal origin. The Logatchev site leach fractions have similar major element compositions to terrigenous Al–Fe–Mn oxides, whose REE patterns show strong positive Ce and negative Eu anomalies that are comparable to those of “preformed” Fe–Mn oxides of continental origin. Based on major element and REE data and 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7197–0.7236), the residue fractions at the Logatchev site contain a significant contribution from aeolian sources, whose chemical composition is virtually identical to oligotrophic settling particles in the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean. In comparison, residues from the Rainbow hydrothermal site (36°14′N), have geochemical composition controlled by hydrothermal anhydrite [Chavagnac V., German C.R., Milton J.A., Palmer M.R., 2005. Sources of REE in sediment cores from the Rainbow vent site (36°14′N, MAR). Chem. Geol. 216, 329–352.]. They are characterised by 87Sr/86Sr ratios of 0.7087–0.7093, which are significantly less radiogenic than those of the Saharan dust. Hence, the data suggest (1) a significant contribution of aeolian material to the sediments at 14°45′N that is not present at 36°14′N, (2) that this material is most likely of North-African origin, and (3) that this source of aeolian material has remained relatively constant over the last 13 kyr. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Matsuno–Gill model has been widely used to study the tropical large-scale circulations and atmosphere–ocean interactions. However, a common critique of this model is that it requires a strong equivalent linear mechanical damping to get realistic wind response and it is unclear what could provide such a strong damping above the boundary layer. This study evaluates the sources and strength of equivalent linear mechanical damping in the Walker circulation by calculating the zonal momentum budget using 15 yr (1979–93) of daily global reanalysis data. Two different reanalyses [NCEP–NCAR and 15-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-15)] give qualitatively similar results for all major terms, including the budget residual, whose structure is consistent with its interpretation as eddy momentum flux convergence by convective momentum transport (CMT). The Walker circulation is characterized by two distinct regions: a deep convection region over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and a shallow convection region over the eastern Pacific cold tongue. These two regions are separated by a strong upper-tropospheric ridge and a strong lower-tropospheric trough in the central Pacific. The resultant pressure gradient forces on both sides require strong (approximately 5–10 days) damping to balance them because Coriolis force near the equator is too small to provide the balance. In the deep convection region, the damping is provided by CMT and advection together in both the upper and lower troposphere. In the shallow convection region, on the other hand, the damping is provided mainly by advection in the upper troposphere and by CMT in the lower troposphere. In other words, the upper-level tropical easterly jet and the low-level trade wind are both braked by CMT. These results support the use of strong damping in the Matsuno–Gill-type models but suggest that the damping rate is spatially inhomogeneous and the CMT-related damping increases with the strength of convection. Implications for GCM’s simulation of tropical mean climate are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shallow, maritime cumuli are ubiquitous over much of the tropical oceans, and characterizing their properties is important to understanding weather and climate. The Rain in Cumulus over the Ocean (RICO) field campaign, which took place during November 2004-January 2005 in the trades over the western Atlantic, emphasized measurements of processes related to the formation of rain in shallow cumuli, and how rain subsequently modifies the structure and ensemble statistics of trade wind clouds. Eight weeks of nearly continuous S-band polarimetric radar sampling, 57 flights from three heavily instrumented research aircraft, and a suite of ground- and ship-based instrumentation provided data on trade wind clouds with unprecedented resolution. Observational strategies employed during RICO capitalized on the advances in remote sensing and other instrumentation to provide insight into processes that span a range of scales and that lie at the heart of questions relating to the cause and effects of rain from shallow maritime cumuli. INSET: GROUND-BASED AEROSOL MEASUREMENTS DURING RICO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic warm pool (AWP) is a large body of warm water that comprises the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the western tropical North Atlantic. Located to its northeastern side is the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), which produces the tropical easterly trade winds. The easterly trade winds carry moisture from the tropical North Atlantic into the Caribbean Sea, where the flow intensifies, forming the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ). The CLLJ then splits into two branches: one turning northward and connecting with the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), and the other continuing westward across Central America into the eastern North Pacific. The easterly CLLJ and its westward moisture transport are maximized in the summer and winter, whereas they are minimized in the fall and spring. This semiannual feature results from the semiannual variation of sea level pressure in the Caribbean region owing to the westward extension and eastward retreat of the NASH. The NCAR Community Atmospheric Model and observational data are used to investigate the impact of the climatological annual mean AWP on the summer climate of the Western Hemisphere. Two groups of the model ensemble runs with and without the AWP are performed and compared. The model results show that the effect of the AWP is to weaken the summertime NASH, especially at its southwestern edge. The AWP also strengthens the summertime continental low over the North American monsoon region. In response to these pressure changes, the CLLJ and its moisture transport are weakened, but its semiannual feature does not disappear. The weakening of the easterly CLLJ increases (decreases) moisture convergence to its upstream (downstream) and thus enhances (suppresses) rainfall in the Caribbean Sea (in the far eastern Pacific west of Central America). Model runs show that the AWP’s effect is to always weaken the southerly GPLLJ. However, the AWP strengthens the GPLLJ’s northward moisture transport in the summer because the AWP-induced increase of specific humidity overcomes the weakening of southerly wind, and vice versa in the fall. Finally, the AWP reduces the tropospheric vertical wind shear in the main development region that favors hurricane formation and development during August–October. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interdecadal oscillations are analysed in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model made of a planetary geostrophic ocean model within an idealized geometry, coupled to a zonally-averaged tropospheric atmosphere model. The interdecadal variability that arises spontaneously in this coupled system is caused by intrinsic ocean dynamics, the coupled air-sea feedbacks being not essential. The spatial pattern of the variability bears some resemblance with observations and results obtained with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) as well as simpler climate models: large and quasi-stationary upper ocean temperature-dominated density anomalies are found in the north-western part of the ocean basin along with weaker, westward propagating anomalies in the remaining interior. The basic physical mechanism that lies at the heart of the existence of the interdecadal mode is a large-scale baroclinic instability of the oceanic mean flow in the vicinity of the western boundary, characteristic of ocean models forced by constant surface fluxes. Freshwater feedbacks associated with the hydrological cycle are found to have only a modest influence on the interdecadal mode. The presence of a periodic channel mimicking the Antarctic Circumpolar Current at high southern latitudes prevents the oceanic baroclinic instability to occur in the Southern Hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has shown that seasonal-mean boreal winter variations in the subtropical/extratropical sea level pressure and wind stress fields over the central North Pacific are significantly related to the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 12–15 months later. Results presented in this note indicate that boreal winter ENSO events are also preceded by increased intraseasonal variance in the antecedent boreal winter atmospheric circulation patterns over the extratropical central North Pacific as well. Low (high) surface pressure anomalies associated with intraseasonal variability in this region are related to intraseasonal wind stress anomalies that represent a weakening (strengthening) of the trade winds over both the north and south subtropical/tropical Pacific. There is also a concurrent increase (decrease) in the central and eastern subtropical North Pacific sea surface temperatures that projects onto the seasonal-mean SST anomalies that precede mature ENSO events by 9–12 months. Overall these results suggest that similar to seasonal-mean subtropical surface pressure and wind stress fields, enhanced transient variability in the midlatitudes can subsequently induce changes in the atmospheric and oceanic structure of the tropical Pacific that may serve as a precursor to ENSO variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from seven cruises over a 10-year span, we report marine boundary layer mixing ratios (i.e., dry mole fractions as pmol mol-1 or ppt), degrees of surface seawater saturation, and air-sea fluxes of three short-lived halocarbons that are significant in tropospheric and potentially stratospheric chemistry. CHBr3, CH2Br2, and CH3I were all highly supersaturated almost everywhere, all the time. Highest saturations of the two polybrominated gases were observed in coastal waters and areas of upwelling, such as those near the equator and along ocean fronts. CH3I distributions reflected the different chemistry and cycling of this gas in both the water and the atmosphere. Seasonal variations in fluxes were apparent where cruises overlapped and were consistent among oceans. Undersaturations of these gases were noted at some locations in the Southern Ocean, owing to mixing of surface and subsurface waters, not necessarily biological or chemical sinks. The Pacific Ocean appears to be a much stronger source of CHBr3 to the marine boundary layer than the Atlantic. The high supersaturations, fluxes, and marine boundary layer mixing ratios in the tropics are consistent with the suggestion that tropical convection could deliver some portion of these gases and their breakdown products to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The South American coast between Brazil and Venezuela is affected by longshore migrating mud banks derived from the fine-grained Amazon sediment discharge. Onshore mud migration prevails over shallow ‘bank’ areas alternating alongshore with deeper ‘inter-bank’ areas. The transport on the inner shelf, and attachment to the shoreline, of this migrating mud has been attributed mainly to wind waves. However, the lack of in situ data on waves hampers understanding of the relationship between waves and mud dynamics. A 44-yr record (1960–2004) of the ERA-40 wave dataset generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used, in conjunction with field investigations in French Guiana, to define both event-scale and longer-term patterns of mud mobilisation induced by waves. The ratio H 0 3 / T 2, combining wave height H and period T, and the angle of wave incidence α, were singled out as the most relevant parameters for describing wave forcing. Typical ‘bank’ and ‘inter-bank’ profiles and corresponding mud densities, and a 3-month record of changes in the thickness of the fluid mud layer in an estuarine navigation channel were monitored by echo-sounding from October 2002 to January 2003. An 80-day record of bed-level changes in the intertidal zone was obtained from August to November 2004 using a pressure transducer. The results on the wave regime of French Guiana confirm a distinctly seasonal pattern, and highlight an increase in H 0 3 / T 2 over the 44-yr period related to an increase in trade-wind velocities determined from corresponding trends in Atlantic wind pseudo-stress off the South American coast. Wave forcing over bank areas leads to the liquefaction of a 1–3 m-thick layer of mud that is transported onshore (and alongshore by the longshore component of wave energy). The episodic nature of high wave energy events generally results in the formation of mud bar features from the shoreward mobilisation of gel-like fluid mud. The effect of waves on mud is particularly marked following long periods of low energy, and especially at the onset of the high wave energy season (October to May), when even moderate wave energy events can lead to significant mobilisation of mud. Significant phases of increased wave energy are attended by higher long-term (annual) rates of longshore mud bank migration but the correlation is rather poor between the wave forcing parameter H 0 3 / T 2 and migration rates because stronger wave forcing is generally associated with low angles of wave incidence. This suggests a complementary role of other hydrodynamic mechanisms, such as geostrophic and tidal currents, in longshore mud bank migration. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). This “climate forcing” differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semidirect effects that account for certain short time scale responses in the troposphere. First, a climate feedback term is calculated from reported values of 2 × CO2 radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-yr simulations by 20 AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1% yr-1. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that are diagnosed from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor, and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. Partial compensation is found between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the intermodel differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in twentieth- and twenty-first-century simulations in the AOGCMs. The technique is validated using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings that are diagnosed agree with the conventional forcing time series within ∼10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of 2 differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate problems with the modeling of well-mixed greenhouse gas changes. The simple diagnoses presented provides an important and useful first step for understanding differences in AOGCM integrations, indicating that some of the differences in model projections can be attributed to different prescribed climate forcing, even for so-called standard climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large number of ensemble hindcasts (or retrospective forecasts) of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) have been made with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) that does not employ flux correction in order to evaluate the potential skill of the model as a seasonal forecasting tool. Oceanic initial conditions are provided by an ocean data assimilation system. Ensembles of seven forecasts of 6-month length are made starting each month in the 1982 to 2002 period. Skill of the coupled model is evaluated from both a deterministic and a probabilistic perspective. The skill metrics are calculated using both the bulk method, which includes all initial condition months together, and as a function of initial condition month. The latter method allows a more objective evaluation of how the model has performed in the context in which forecasts are actually made and applied. The deterministic metrics used are the anomaly correlation and the root-mean-square error. The coupled model deterministic skill metrics are compared with those from persistence and damped persistence reference forecasts. Despite the fact that the coupled model has a large cold bias in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific this coupled model is shown to have forecast skill that is competitive with other state-of-the-art forecasting techniques. Potential skill from probabilistic forecasts made using the coupled model ensemble members are evaluated using the relative operating characteristics method. This analysis indicates that for most initial condition months this coupled model has more skill at forecasting cold events than warm or neutral events in the central Pacific. In common with other forecasting systems, the coupled model forecast skill is found to be lowest for forecasts passing through the Northern Hemisphere (NH) spring. Diagnostics of this so-called spring predictability barrier in the context of this coupled model indicate that two factors likely contribute to this predictability barrier. First, the coupled model shows a too-weak coupling of the surface and subsurface temperature anomalies during NH spring. Second, the coupled-model-simulated signal-to-noise ratio for SST anomalies is much lower during NH spring than at other times of the year, indicating that the model’s potential predictability is low at this time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal climate prediction for the Indian summer monsoon season is critical for strategic planning of the region. The mean features of the Indian summer monsoon and its variability, produced by versions of the ‘Florida State University Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model’ (FSUCGCM) hindcasts, are investigated for the period 1987 to 2002. The coupled system has full global ocean and atmospheric models with coupled assimilation. Four member models were created by choosing different combinations of parameterizations of the physical processes in the atmospheric model component. Lower level wind flow patterns and rainfall associated with the summer monsoon season are examined from this fully coupled model seasonal integrations. By comparing with observations, the mean monsoon condition simulated by this coupled model for the June, July and August periods is seen to be reasonably realistic. The overall spatial low-level wind flow patterns and the precipitation distributions over the Indian continent and adjoining oceanic regions are comparable with the respective analyses. The anomalous below normal large-scale precipitation and the associated anomalous low-level wind circulation pattern for the summer monsoon season of 2002 was predicted by the model three months in advance. For the Indian summer monsoon, the ensemble mean is able to reproduce the mean features better compared to individual member models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The observations of the ocean–atmosphere–sea ice have recently revealed that the oceanic surfaces can have a subtle but significant impact on the atmospheric long-term fluctuations. Low-frequency variations and long-term trends of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation have been partly related to particular SST and sea ice features. In this work, the influence of typical tripolar SST and dipolar sea ice anomalies in the North Atlantic–Arctic on the atmosphere is investigated. A large ensemble of AGCM simulations forced by three different anomalous boundary conditions (SST, sea ice, and SST + sea ice) are used. The linearity of the simulated response in the winter season is particularly assessed. In these experiments, while the winter low-level temperature response is mainly symmetric about the sign of the forcing, the asymmetric part of the geopotential response is substantial. The sea ice forcing maintains a baroclinic response with a strong temperature anomaly in the vicinity of the forcing but with a weak vertical penetration. The SST maintains an NAO-like equivalent barotropic temperature and geopotential height response that extends throughout the troposphere. It is also shown that the combination of the two forcings is mainly linear for the low-level temperature and nonlinear for the geopotential height. While the SST forcing seems to be the main contributor to the total temperature and geopotential height responses, the sea ice forcing appears to introduce significant nonlinear perturbations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global fine resolution curvilinear ocean model, forced by NCEP Re-Analysis fluxes, is used to study changes in the circulation of the Nordic Seas and surrounding ocean basins during 1994–2001. The model fields exhibit regionally distinct temporal variability, mostly determined by atmospheric forcing but in regions of significant sea-ice longer timescale variability is found. Some abrupt circulation changes accompany the relaxation of the westerlies following the peak North Atlantic Oscillation Index phase of the mid 1990s. The Greenland gyre spins up over the following years, with the increased circulation partially exiting through the Denmark Strait into the northern Atlantic as well as re-circulating within the Nordic Seas. This resulted in a distinct freshening around northern Iceland and an increase in the East Icelandic Current. However, these latter increases steadied after 1998, as the increased Greenland Sea gyre circulation led to a greater proportion of water leaving through the Denmark Strait, rather than re-circulating. The model Denmark Strait Outflow therefore doubles during the latter half of the 1990s. Increased convection in the Icelandic Sea in the model in 1998–2001 acted to obliterate the anomalies that would otherwise have fed into the East Icelandic Current. A fresh, cold anomaly from the Arctic during 1998/1999 is shown to propagate through the system. Model and observations show good agreement generally, but diverge at depth more in the last few years of the simulation. The model shows that density anomalies within the East Greenland Current do not exclusively derive from the Arctic but may also arise from air–sea interaction within the Greenland Sea. Convection is a major means of limiting anomaly propagation within the model. The contrast of climatological with daily forcing shows the inherent strength of the variability in the ocean circulation on sub-decadal timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Sediments accumulating in offshore areas of northern Lake Malawi typically contain 1–4% organic carbon. This organic matter (OM) is of mainly phytoplankton origin with varying mixtures of terrestrial and degraded, reworked material. High-resolution, stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic, elemental and Rock-Eval pyrolysis analyses of the bulk OM contained in three cores have been used to characterise the OM and provide detailed insights into the palaeolimnology and palaeoclimatology of northern Lake Malawi over the last 25ka. Preservation of the OM as reflected by its Rock-Eval hydrogen index (HI) is highly variable. Periods characterised by notably low HI (&#60;250) indicate a lowered lake level when oxic conditions episodically reached the deep lake floor. Particularly well-defined lowstands occurred between ca 11.8 and 10calka and around 700 years ago. Isotopic and other evidence also suggest lowstand conditions before and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) lasting until ca 17ka. However, the OM that accumulated at that time has relatively high HI. Generally high HI values persisted until ca 11.8ka, when there was a rapid decline leading in to the terminal Pleistocene–early Holocene lowstand. This abrupt change divides the OM record into two distinct phases, one preceding and the other following the decrease in HI. Higher HI values in the earlier period, even during times of low lake level, reflect high rates of primary production stimulated by vigorous vertical mixing of the water column that was driven by a greater incidence of northerly winds. After ca 11.8ka the wind regime changed to one similar to today''s, with mixing and nutrient cycling largely controlled by the southerly trade wind system, and the locus of high primary production at the south end of the lake. Periods of low during the mid- and late Holocene suggest intervals of stable stratification due to significantly reduced wind-driven mixing in the northern part of the lake, when N-fixing cyanophytes formed a major component of the phytoplankton. The geochemical data support recent suggestions of lowstand conditions in Lake Malawi at the time of the LGM, and provide additional evidence of periods of intense but localised aridity in the terminal Pleistocene–earliest Holocene and at the time of the Little Ice Age. The change in mixing regime at ca 11.8ka seems to have been the result of a radical reorganisation of the dominant surface wind flow over south-eastern Africa. The transition was, within the resolution of currently available chronologies, apparently contemporaneous with marked changes in the circulation patterns of adjacent oceans, and the climate of more distant parts of the Northern Hemisphere. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This research deals with the incidence of tornadoes and waterspouts along the coasts of Hampshire and Sussex. In particular, the areas north and east of the Isle of Wight are studied and some cases analysed. The severity of the property damage indicates tornado tracks up to 900 m wide (as at Selsey on 7 January 1998) and suggests tornado intensities up to T8 on the International Tornado Scale. On extreme occasions (e.g. 14 December 1810, 28 September 1876, 7–8 January 1998, 28 October 2000, 30 October 2000) many dozens–and sometimes hundreds–of properties were damaged. The work suggests that the presence of the Isle of Wight''s land mass in westerly and south-westerly conditions disturbs the atmospheric circulation sufficiently to trigger or to intensify tornadic vortices from storm cells, and implies that in the absence of the island there would be fewer such occurrences. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We report magnetic hysteresis results from sediment cores obtained from Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana. As a hydrologically closed basin, the water budget of Lake Bosumtwi is extremely sensitive to changes in the precipitation/evapotranspiration balance. Lake Bosumtwi lies in the path of the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ); hence, the lake is ideally situated to study monsoon variability in West Africa. Five distinctive magnetic mineral zones (A–E) were identified in the 11-m-long sediment cores that span the last 26,000 calendar years. Prior to 12 calendar (cal) ka, low concentrations of multidomain, high-coercivity magnetic minerals are present. Three prominent shifts towards very high concentrations of high-coercivity iron sulfide (greigite) magnetic minerals are centered at 12,470, 17,290, and 22,600 calendar years during the last glacial period (magnetic zones D1–3). Between 12 and 3.2 cal ka, there is an abrupt shift to moderately high concentrations of mixed multidomain and single-domain, low-coercivity minerals and an organic-rich sapropel lithology. Since 3.2 cal ka, the magnetic mineral parameters reveal a shift to increased amounts of high-coercivity magnetic minerals. These magnetic mineral zones document tropical climate variability on a variety of temporal scales. Glacial age sediments have a high-coercivity magnetic mineralogy due to increased aeolian dust transport from the Sahel to Lake Bosumtwi as well as postdepositional reductive diagenesis. During the last glacial period, the increased strength of Harmattan and North African continental trade winds, the southward depression of the ITCZ, and weakened summer monsoon strength resulted in increased regional aridity and greater dust flux out of Sahel source regions. The greigite-bearing D magnetic zones correspond to brief lowstands in the level of Lake Bosumtwi and likely represent periods of intensified aridity in West Africa. The D magnetic zones closely resemble the timing and duration of Heinrich events and suggest a hemispheric-scale climatic coupling between the tropics and poles. The well-documented African humid period (AHP) is characterized by abrupt shifts in magnetic parameters between 12 and 3.2 cal ka. Dust flux to Lake Bosumtwi is inferred to be very low during this humid interval due to the strengthening of the summer monsoon. Since 3.2 cal ka, the magnetic mineral parameters suggest increased aridity as compared to the AHP. This work demonstrates that the magnetic properties of Lake Bosumtwi sediment are a sensitive recorder of abrupt climate change of global significance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June-July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From observational analysis a Pacific mode of variability in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)/cold tongue region is identified that possesses characteristics and interpretation similar to the dominant “meridional” mode of interannual–decadal variability in the tropical Atlantic. The Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes are characterized by an anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the mean latitude of the ITCZ coupled to an anomalous displacement of the ITCZ toward the warmer hemisphere. Both are forced by trade wind variations in their respective northern subtropical oceans. The Pacific meridional mode exists independently of ENSO, although ENSO nonlinearity projects strongly on it during the peak anomaly season of boreal spring. It is suggested that the Pacific and Atlantic modes are analogous, governed by physics intrinsic to the ITCZ/ cold tongue complex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]