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The study presents (a) a 44‐year wintertime climatology of resolved gravity wave (GW) fluxes and forcing in the extratropical stratosphere using ERA5, and (b) their composite evolution around gradual (final warming) and abrupt (sudden warming) transitions in the wintertime circulation, focusing on lateral fluxes. The transformed Eulerian mean equations are leveraged to provide a glimpse of the importance of GW lateral propagation (i.e., horizontal propagation) toward driving the wintertime stratospheric circulation by analyzing the relative contribution of the vertical versus meridional flux dissipation. The relative contribution from lateral propagation is found to be notable, especially in the Austral winter stratosphere where lateral (vertical) momentum flux convergence provides a peak climatological forcing of up to −0.5 (−3.5) m/s/day around 60°S at 40–45 km altitude. Prominent lateral propagation in the wintertime midlatitudes also contributes to the formation of belts of GW activity in both hemispheres. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric Gravity Waves (GWs) are atmospheric disturbances created by processes like convection, thunderstorms, flow over topography, etc. These waves can have wavelengths as small as 1 km to as large as 1,000–2,000 km. Most atmospheric GWs are not resolved in coarse‐resolution climate models. As a result, they are represented in climate models using parameterizations, which are approximate models that can be subject to various idealizations. One such idealization is the assumption of pure vertical propagation of GWs. In this study, we use multidecadal records from ERA5 reanalysis—which combines a high‐resolution model with assimilated observations to produce a close‐to‐observed state of the atmosphere and resolves some of these GWs—to quantify the impact of this assumption on the mean state of the extratropical stratosphere. This is done by extracting GWs from ERA5 data, computing horizontal momentum fluxes carried by these waves, and comparing the net acceleration/deceleration provided by these fluxes on the peak winter stratospheric circulation and key episodes of abrupt changes in the circulation. Analysis using ERA5 reveals that horizontal propagation of GWs can be notable in the midlatitude stratosphere, highlighting the need to develop GW parameterizations that represent this essential property of atmospheric GWs. Key Points: Climatology of lateral fluxes from ERA5 shows substantial lateral propagation of gravity waves in both hemispheresContribution of both lateral and vertical GW fluxes toward zonal wind forcing is the same order of magnitudeAbrupt changes in GW forcing in the upper stratosphere around sudden stratospheric warmings persist even 20 days following the event [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme disruptions of the wintertime polar vortex that can alter the tropospheric weather for over 2 months. However, the reasons why only some SSWs have a tropospheric impact are not yet clear. This study analyses the tropospheric impact of SSWs over the Atlantic region as measured by the latitudinal displacement of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet following SSWs. We use reanalysis data for the period 1950–2020 to examine differences in the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation for SSWs with an equatorward (EQ) or a poleward (POLE) shift. Our results show a stronger and more persistent Northern Annular Mode (NAM) signal in the lower stratosphere for EQ than for POLE, beginning 2 weeks before the onset date. In the troposphere, we find precursory signals of the Atlantic jet behavior over Siberia, consistent with previous studies, and also over the central North Pacific and central Europe. In particular, our results suggest that the noncanonical poleward jet shift response to SSWs is in part modulated by circulation anomalies over the central North Pacific, and that these are in turn connected to the cold phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Further analysis of the enhanced predictability given by these precursors suggests that the sign of the lower-stratospheric NAM and the geopotential anomalies over the central North Pacific significantly affect the probability of having an EQ or POLE response of the Atlantic jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant pattern of Northern Hemisphere extratropical climate variability is the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which in wintertime represents the coupling of the stratospheric and tropospheric circulations. The internal variability associated with the NAM has been shown to give rise to substantial uncertainty in climate projections of regional surface air temperatures (SATs), but it's unclear how much of this variability arises from stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes. Here, using three large‐ensemble coupled climate model simulations from 1850 to 2100 with varying fidelity of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes, we demonstrate that regional SAT variability across timescales is amplified when the tropospheric NAM is coupled to the stratospheric NAM. Moreover, models that lack adequate simulation of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling processes may not capture the magnitude of uncertainty in near‐term SAT projections associated with this coupling. Plain Language Summary: Large‐scale atmospheric circulation variability drives substantial variation in regional surface air temperatures (SATs), so that even on 30–40 year timescales local cooling trends are possible even as global‐mean temperatures increase. We provide evidence that when the stratospheric mean flow is coupled to the tropospheric mean flow, the decadal variability of SATs is amplified in some regions. Some models do not represent well the observed coupling of the stratosphere to the troposphere, and these models may underestimate decadal variability associated with this coupling. Key Points: The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) exhibits decadal variability that can accelerate or slow the rate of anthropogenic regional surface warmingAmplified decadal variability of extratropical surface temperatures occurs when the NAM is coupled from the stratosphere to the troposphereModels that fail to adequately capture vertical coupling may underestimate the magnitude of decadal variations in surface air temperatures [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. We focus on two key quantities of interest: the probability of an SSW occurring, and the expected lead time if it does occur, as functions of initial condition. These optimal forecasts concretely measure the event's progress. Direct numerical simulation can estimate them in principle but is prohibitively expensive in practice: each rare event requires a long integration to observe, and the cost of each integration grows with model complexity. We describe an alternative approach using integrations that are short compared to the time scale of the warming event. We compute the probability and lead time efficiently by solving equations involving the transition operator, which encodes all information about the dynamics. We relate these optimal forecasts to a small number of interpretable physical variables, suggesting optimal measurements for forecasting. We illustrate the methodology on a prototype SSW model developed by Holton and Mass and modified by stochastic forcing. While highly idealized, this model captures the essential nonlinear dynamics of SSWs and exhibits the key forecasting challenge: the dramatic separation in time scales between a single event and the return time between successive events. Our methodology is designed to fully exploit high-dimensional data from models and observations, and has the potential to identify detailed predictors of many complex rare events in meteorology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation response to volcanic eruptions has been explored extensively using general circulation models. In observations and some models, the response is characterized by an enhanced stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), a positive mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and warm surface temperatures during the winter over North America and Eurasia. A weak surface air temperature signal in previous studies has led to conflicting conclusions on the robustness of the response. Here, we use simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) of six nuclear war scenarios to present a new perspective on the connection between stratospheric aerosol heating, the SPV, and the surface temperature response. We show that stratospheric aerosol heating by soot is the primary contributor to the SPV response in nuclear war simulations, which is coupled to the troposphere and projects as a positive mode of the NAO at the surface. Winter warming is observed across northern Eurasia, albeit poleward of the response after volcanic eruptions. We compare the results to simulations of volcanic eruptions and find that observed Eurasian warming in the first winter after the 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruptions is simulated with the NCAR CAM5 climate model only when tropical sea surface temperatures, including the observed El Niño, are specified along with the volcanic aerosols. This suggests an undiagnosed tropospheric mechanism connecting the tropics and high latitudes, as without specifying sea surface temperatures, internal variability dominates the simulated winter warming response after historical volcanic eruptions. Plain Language Summary: Explosive volcanic eruptions can create sulfur aerosols in the upper atmosphere, which both cool Earth's surface and heat the lower stratosphere. While large heating is well known to affect the atmospheric circulation, favoring a pattern that produces winter surface warming over Eurasia, whether the observed winter warming from eruptions like the 1991 Pinatubo was caused by those eruptions has been questioned. We use nuclear war simulations to show that large heating of the upper atmosphere by smoke would produce this response. Finally, we find that when there is an El Niño combined with a large volcanic eruption, there is a greater likelihood of winter warming over Eurasia. Key Points: Acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) occurs due to heated stratospheric aerosols in nuclear war and volcanic eruption simulationsA tropospheric mechanism for acceleration of the SPV is detected in a 150 Tg soot nuclear war scenarioWinter warming is simulated after the 1963 Agung, 1982 El Chichón, and 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruptions, when the observed sea surface temperatures, which include an El Niño in each case, are specified [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports a comprehensive instability analysis of a 3D Charney-like model with an observationally compatible generic stratosphere. It is found that the values of a single nondimensional parameter Γ =   λ f o 2 / (β D N 1 2 ) (detailed definition in text), in conjunction with representative values of four other nondimensional parameters, would dictate the existence of multiple branches of unstable modes as a function of the zonal wavenumber. Prototype Charney mode, Green mode, and two additional structurally distinct modes (Charney+ mode and tropopause mode) are identified. The latter result from the additional strong influence of the tropopause. The dynamical nature of all modes is delineated in terms of their meridional fluxes of heat and potential vorticity. The three-dimensional structure of the ageostrophic velocity field in each mode is presented to identify its potential of inducing frontogenesis. Optimal-mode analyses are also performed to ascertain how a disturbance with a predisposed structure would explosively develop toward each type of normal mode. In view of the pivotal role of Γ in baroclinic instability and for historical reason, we name it the Charney number. It is most instructive to think of Γ as a ratio of the meridional gradient of PV associated with the basic flow in the troposphere,   λ f o 2 / (D N 1 2) , to that associated with Earth's rotation, β. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain ranges are regional features on Earth, as are the regions of mountain-wave drag (MWD) exerted by dissipating atmospheric gravity waves generated by flow over them. However, these regional drags have significant global- or zonal-mean impacts on Earth's atmospheric general circulation (e.g., slowing of the polar night jet). The objective of this work is to understand the regional to global evolution of these impacts. The approach is to track the evolution of MWD-generated potential vorticity (PV) over the winter using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Within an ensemble of winter-long runs with and without MWD, lower-stratospheric PV is generated over mountains and advected downstream, generating large-scale PV banners. These PV banners are diffused but survive this diffusion and are reinforced over downstream mountain ranges, accumulating into zonal-mean or global features within WACCM. A simple 2D model representing sources, advection, and diffusion of "passive PV" recreates the salient features in the WACCM results, suggesting the winter-long evolution of MWD-generated PV can be crudely understood in terms of horizontal advection and diffusion within a global vortex. In the Northern Hemisphere, cyclonic, equatorward PV banners accumulate zonally into a single zonally symmetric positive PV anomaly. The anticyclonic, poleward PV banners also accumulate into a zonally symmetric feature, but then diffuse over the North Pole into a negative PV polar cap. In the Southern Hemisphere, the same processes are at work, though the different geographic configuration of mountain ranges leads to different patterns of impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding and predicting midlatitude cold spells is of scientific and public interest, given often associated severe impacts. However, large-scale atmospheric dynamics related to these events are not fully understood. The winter of 2017/18 was characterized by several cold spells affecting large parts of North America and Eurasia. Here, the role of stratosphere–troposphere coupling for the occurrence of cold spells in this winter is investigated using different wave propagation diagnostics. While the European cold spell in late February 2018 was influenced by a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) associated with wave absorption, the cold spells over North America at the end of December 2017 and early February 2018 were related to downward reflected waves over the North Pacific. Previously proposed wave reflection indices, however, either miss these reflection events or are not able to distinguish them from the major SSW related to wave absorption. To overcome this, a novel simple index based on eddy heat flux is proposed here, capturing regional wave reflection over the North Pacific. Reflection events detected with this index are shown to be followed by North Pacific blocking and negative temperature anomalies over North America. An improved understanding of the contribution of wave reflection for cold spells is crucial to better predict such events in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article describes the development of the version of the SL-AV global semi-Lagrangian atmospheric model with high spatial resolution in the stratosphere. The new model version uses the vertical grid of 100 levels, grid spacing of 500 m in the layer between 100 and 10 hPa, and the upper lid at 0.04 hPa. The parameterization of the non-orographic gravity wave drag is implemented. Numerous modifications are introduced in the block for the numerical solution of dynamical equations to enhance model stability. The experiment on atmospheric dynamics modeling for 28 years is carried out. It is shown that the SL-AV model reproduces the main features of stratospheric circulation, such as the polar night stratospheric jet formation and sudden stratospheric warming. The quasi-biennial oscillation of equatorial wind is reproduced with realistic period and amplitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A momentum budget is examined in the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere using simulation data over ~11 years from a whole-atmosphere model in terms of the respective contributions of gravity waves (GWs), Rossby waves (RWs), and tides. The GW forcing is dominant in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), as indicated in previous studies. However, RWs also cause strong westward forcing, described by Eliassen–Palm flux divergence (EPFD), in all seasons in the MLT and in the winter stratosphere. Despite the relatively coarse model resolution, resolved GWs with large amplitudes appear in the MLT. The EPFD associated with the resolved GWs is eastward (westward) in the summer (winter) hemisphere, similar to the parameterized GW forcing. A pair of positive and negative EPFDs are associated with the RWs and GWs in the MLT. These results suggest that the RWs and resolved GWs are generated in situ in the MLT. Previous studies suggested that a possible mechanism of RW generation in the MLT is the barotropic/baroclinic instability. This study revisits this possibility and examines causes of the instability from a potential vorticity (PV) viewpoint. The instability condition is characterized as the PV maximum at middle latitudes on an isentropic surface. Positive EPFD for RWs is distributed slightly poleward of the PV maximum. Because the EPFD equals the PV flux, this feature indicates that the RW radiation acts to reduce the PV maximum. The PV maximum is climatologically maintained in both the winter and summer mesospheres, which is caused by parameterized GW forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Downward wave coupling (DWC) is an important process that characterizes the dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere via planetary wave reflection. A recent modeling study has indicated that natural forcing factors, including sea surface temperature (SST) variability and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), influenceDWCand the associated surface impact in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In light of this, the authors further investigate how DWC in the NH is affected by anthropogenic forcings, using a fully coupled chemistry--climate model CESM1(WACCM). The results indicate that the occurrence of DWC is significantly suppressed in the future, starting later in the seasonal cycle, with more events concentrated in late winter (February and March). The future decrease in DWC events is associated with enhanced wave absorption in the stratosphere due to increased greenhouse gases (GHGs), which is manifest as more absorbing types of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in early winter. This early winter condition leads to a delay in the development of the upper-stratospheric reflecting surface, resulting in a shift in the seasonal cycle of DWC toward late winter in the future. The tropospheric responses to DWC events in the future exhibit different spatial patterns, compared to those of the past. In the North Atlantic sector, DWC-induced circulation changes are characterized by a poleward shift and an eastward extension of the tropospheric jet, while in the North Pacific sector, the circulation changes are characterized by a weakening of the tropospheric jet. These responses are consistentwith a change in the pattern ofDWC-induced synoptic-scale eddy--mean flow interaction in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using reanalysis datasets and numerical simulations, the relationship between the stratospheric Arctic vortex (SAV) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on decadal time scales was investigated. A significant in-phase relationship between the PDO and SAV on decadal time scales during 1950-2014 is found, that is, the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) cooling (warming) associated with the positive (negative) PDO phases is closely related to the strengthening (weakening) of the SAV. This decadal relationship between the North Pacific SST and SAV is different from their relationship on subdecadal time scales. Observational and modeling results both demonstrate that the decadal variation in the SAV is strongly affected by the North Pacific SSTs related to the PDO via modifying the upward propagation of planetary wavenumber-1 waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The decreased SSTs over the North Pacific tend to result in a deepened Aleutian low along with a strengthened jet stream over the North Pacific, which excites a weakened western Pacific pattern and a strengthened Pacific-North American pattern. These tropospheric circulation anomalies are in accordance with the decreased refractive index (RI) at middle and high latitudes in the northern stratosphere during the positive PDO phase. The increased RI at high latitudes in the upper troposphere impedes the planetary wavenumber-1 wave from propagating into the stratosphere, and in turn strengthens the SAV. The responses of the RI to the PDO are mainly contributions of the changes in the meridional gradient of the zonal-mean potential vorticity via alteration of the baroclinic term - f²2/ρ0(ρ0...z/N²)z. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of parameterized nonorographic gravity wave drag (NOGWD) and its seasonal interaction with the resolved wave drag in the stratosphere has been extensively studied in low-resolution (coarser than 1.9° × 2.5°) climate models but is comparatively unexplored in higher-resolution models. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System at 0.7° × 0.7° resolution, the wave drivers of the Brewer–Dobson circulation are diagnosed and the circulation sensitivity to the NOGW launch flux is explored. NOGWs are found to account for nearly 20% of the lower-stratospheric Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar cap downwelling and for less than 10% of the lower-stratospheric tropical upwelling and Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar cap downwelling. Despite these relatively small numbers, there are complex interactions between NOGWD and resolved wave drag, in both polar regions. Seasonal cycle analysis reveals a temporal offset in the resolved and parameterized wave interaction: the NOGWD response to altered source fluxes is largest in midwinter, while the resolved wave response is largest in the late winter and spring. This temporal offset is especially prominent in the SH. The impact of NOGWD on sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) life cycles and the final warming date in the SH is also investigated. An increase in NOGWD leads to an increase in SSW frequency, reduction in amplitude and persistence, and an earlier recovery of the stratopause following an SSW event. The SH final warming date is also brought forward when NOGWD is increased. Thus, NOGWD is still found to be a very important parameterization for stratospheric dynamics even in a high-resolution atmospheric model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The skill of the Arctic stratospheric retrospective ensemble forecasts (hindcasts) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts extended-range system is analyzed with a focus on the predictability of the major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) during the period 1993-2016. Thirteen SSWs took place during this period. It is found that forecasts initialized 10-15 days before the SSWs show worse skill in the stratosphere than forecasts initialized during normal conditions in terms of root-mean-square errors but not in terms of anomaly correlation. Using the spread of ensemble members to estimate forecasted SSW probability, it is shown that some SSWs can be predicted with high (.0.9) probability at lead times of 12-13 days if a difference of 3 days between actual and forecasted SSW is allowed. Focusing on SSWs with significant impacts on the tropospheric circulation, on average, the forecasted SSW probability is found to increase from nearly 0 at 1-month lead time to 0.3 at day 13 before SSW, and then rapidly increases to nearly 1 at day 7. The period between days 8 and 12 is when most of the SSWs are predicted, with a probability of 0.5-0.9, which is considerably larger than the observed SSW occurrence frequency. Therefore, this period can be thought of as an estimate of the SSW predictability limit in this system. Indications that the predictability limit for some SSWs may be longer than 2 weeks are also found; however, this result is inconclusive and more studies are needed to understand when and why such long predictability is possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work examines the life cycle of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) from composites of a large number of events. The events are sampled from idealized general circulation model (GCM) integrations and form a database of several hundred major, displacement, splitting, and weak vortex events. It is shown that except for a few details, the generic zonal-mean evolution does not depend on the definition used to detect SSWs. In all cases, the composites show the stratosphere in a positive annular mode phase prior to the events and a barotropic response in the stratosphere at onset. There is a clear positive peak in upward Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux prior to the onset date in the stratosphere and a much weaker peak in the troposphere, making the evolution more consistent with the picture of the stratosphere acting as a variable filter of tropospheric EP flux, rather than SSWs being forced by a strong 'burst' in the troposphere. When comparing composites of SSWs from the database with apparent influence at the surface (downward 'propagating') to those without such influence, the only significant differences are a somewhat more barotropic response at the onset date and longer persistence in the lower stratosphere after the onset for propagating SSWs. There is no significant difference in EP flux between propagating and nonpropagating events, and none of the definitions considered here shows a particular skill in selecting propagating events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vertical propagation and attenuation of mountain waves launched by New Zealand terrain during the Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE) field campaign are investigated. New Zealand mountain waves were frequently attenuated in a lower-stratospheric weak wind layer between z = 15 and 25 km. This layer is termed a 'valve layer,' as conditions within this layer (primarily minimum wind speed) control mountain wave momentum flux through it, analogous to a valve controlling mass flux through a pipe. This valve layer is a climatological feature in the wintertime midlatitude lower stratosphere above the subtropical jet. Mountain wave dynamics within this valve layer are studied using realistic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations that were extensively validated against research aircraft, radiosonde, and satellite observations. Locally, wave attenuation is horizontally and vertically inhomogeneous, evidenced by numerous regions with wave-induced low Richardson numbers and potential vorticity generation. WRF-simulated gravity wave drag (GWD) is peaked in the valve layer, and momentum flux transmitted through this layer is well approximated by a cubic function of minimum ambient wind speed within it, consistent with linear saturation theory. Valve-layer GWD within the well-validated WRF simulations was 3-6 times larger than that parameterized within MERRA. Previous research suggests increasing parameterized orographic GWD (performed in MERRA2) decreases the stratospheric polar vortex strength by altering planetary wave propagation and drag. The results reported here suggest carefully increasing orographic GWD is warranted, which may help to ameliorate the common cold-pole problem in chemistry-climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper demonstrates that sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can be simulated in an ensemble of dry dynamical cores that miss the typical SSW forcing mechanisms like moist processes, land-sea contrasts, or topography. These idealized general circulation model (GCM) simulations are driven by a simple Held-Suarez-Williamson (HSW) temperature relaxation and low-level Rayleigh friction. In particular, the four dynamical cores of NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), are used, which are the semi-Lagrangian (SLD) and Eulerian (EUL) spectral-transform models and the finite-volume (FV) and the spectral element (SE) models. Three research themes are discussed. First, it is shown that SSW events in such idealized simulations have very realistic flow characteristics that are analyzed via the SLD model. A single vortex-split event is highlighted that is driven by wavenumber-1 and -2 wave-mean flow interactions. Second, the SLD simulations are compared to the EUL, FV, and SE dynamical cores, which sheds light on the impact of the numerical schemes on the circulation. Only SLD produces major SSWs, while others only exhibit minor stratospheric warmings. These differences are caused by SLD's more vigorous wave-mean flow interactions in addition to a warm pole bias, which leads to relatively weak polar jets in SLD. Third, it is shown that tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like oscillations and SSWs can coexist in such idealized HSW simulations. They are present in the SLD dynamical core that is used to analyze the QBO-SSW interactions via a transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) analysis. The TEM results provide support for the Holton-Tan effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The processes responsible for double-peak latitudinal structures in the time-averaged tropical lower-stratospheric upwelling, centered near 70 hPa and 20°N/S, previously noted in ERA-Interim and other reanalysis and model datasets, are considered. It is demonstrated that the structure of the wave force resolved by ERA-Interim consistently balances the angular momentum transport associated with the double peak. Analysis of the corresponding structures in diabatic heating rates from ERA-Interim indicates that the peaks arise predominantly from the meridional structure in ozone concentrations and the associated absorption of both shortwave and longwave radiation. Additional smaller contributions arise from local absorption of longwave radiation emitted from the relatively warm layers above and below, as well as from cloud-related radiative effects and nonradiative diabatic heating. The temperature at 70 hPa is slightly higher near 20°N/S than at the equator, opposite of what would be expected if the latitudinal structure in radiative heating were associated with local relaxation. It is proposed on the basis of this analysis that the primary cause of the peaks in upwelling is the externally imposed (i.e., nonrelaxational) part of the radiative heating field. The dynamical plausibility of this hypothesis is investigated in a companion paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the atmosphere to zonally symmetric applied heating and mechanical forcing is considered, allowing for the fact that the response may include a change in the wave force (or 'wave drag'). A scaling argument shows that an applied zonally symmetric heating is effective in driving a steady meridional circulation provided that the wave force (required to satisfy angular momentum constraints) is sufficiently sensitive to changes in the mean flow in the sense that the ratio is large, where K is a measure of the sensitivity of the wave force; α, N, and f are the radiative damping rate, buoyancy frequency, and Coriolis parameter, respectively; and and are the horizontal and vertical length scales of the heating, respectively. Furthermore, in the 'narrow heating' regime where this ratio is large, the structure of the meridional circulation response is only weakly dependent on the details of the wave force. The scaling arguments are verified by experiments in a dry dynamical circulation model. Consistent with the scaling prediction, the regime does not apply when the width of the imposed heating is increased. The narrow-heating regime is demonstrated to be relevant to the double peak in tropical lower-stratospheric upwelling considered in a companion paper, supporting the hypothesis that this feature is radiatively driven. Similar arguments are applied to show that a narrow zonally symmetric applied mechanical forcing is primarily balanced by a change in wave force. This provides an explanation for the recently identified compensation between resolved and parameterized waves in driving modeled trends in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of projected Arctic sea ice loss on the atmospheric circulation is investigated using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a model with a well-resolved stratosphere. Two 160-yr simulations are conducted: one with surface boundary conditions fixed at late twentieth-century values and the other with identical conditions except for Arctic sea ice, which is prescribed at late twenty-first-century values. Their difference isolates the impact of future Arctic sea ice loss upon the atmosphere. The tropospheric circulation response to the imposed ice loss resembles the negative phase of the northern annular mode, with the largest amplitude in winter, while the less well-known stratospheric response transitions from a slight weakening of the polar vortex in winter to a strengthening of the vortex in spring. The lack of a significant winter stratospheric circulation response is shown to be a consequence of largely cancelling effects from sea ice loss in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, which drive opposite-signed changes in upward wave propagation from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Identical experiments conducted with Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, WACCM's low-top counterpart, show a weaker tropospheric response and a different stratospheric response compared to WACCM. An additional WACCM experiment in which the imposed ice loss is limited to August-November reveals that autumn ice loss weakens the stratospheric polar vortex in January, followed by a small but significant tropospheric response in late winter and early spring that resembles the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, with attendant surface climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The formation of the tropical cold-point tropopause (CPT) is examined using a dry primitive equation model driven by the Held-Suarez forcing. Without moist and realistic radiative processes, the dry model successfully reproduces the zonal-mean structure of the CPT. The modeled CPT is appreciably colder (~10 K) than the prescribed equilibrium temperature, and it is maintained by upwelling in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). A transient simulation starting from an axisymmetric steady state without the CPT shows that the evolution and maintenance of the CPT are closely related to the zonal-mean-flow response to wave driving in the stratosphere. The transformed Eulerian-mean analysis indicates that the wave driving is mostly due to convergence of synoptic-scale waves originating from the midlatitude troposphere and propagating into the subtropical UTLS in this model simulation. The modeled CPT also shows a large sensitivity to increased baroclinicity in the equilibrium temperature. Although planetary-scale waves are not considered in this simulation, the result confirms that wave-driven upwelling in the tropical UTLS is a crucial process for the formation and maintenance of the CPT. In addition, it also implies that synoptic-scale waves may play a nonnegligible role in this mechanism, particularly in the seasons when planetary-scale wave activity in the lower stratosphere is weak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics and predictability of stratospheric low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter are examined using a two-dimensional (2D) phase space spanned by the leading empirical orthogonal functions of the 10-hPa geopotential height field. The 2D phase space represents the variation of the strength of the polar night jet and the amplitude of zonal wavenumber-1 eddy components. A linearized nonstationary fluctuation-dissipation relation (NFDR) is developed based on the deterministic drift vector and the stochastic diffusion tensor estimated from a reanalysis dataset. The authors find that the solution of the linearized NFDR with an optimal data sampling time interval for estimating the drift vector and the diffusion tensor provides a good representation in the phase space of the inhomogeneous distribution of the forecast spread of the operational ensemble forecast conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency. In particular, the linearized NFDR captures the local maximum of the forecast spread during the onset period of the major stratospheric sudden warming events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A balloon-borne cryogenic air sampling experiment was carried out over the ocean near the equator to elucidate the transport process of greenhouse gases in the stratosphere. Four air samplers were launched from the deck of the Research Vessel Hakuho Maru by four individual balloons. To realize a balloon launch from this vessel's narrow deck, a new launch method was developed, based on the conventional static launch method. After the balloon flight, each of the four samplers parachuted down to the sea and was recovered by the vessel itself. Details of this successful shipboard balloon operation, including the new launch method, are described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors test the hypothesis that recent observed trends in surface westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere are directly consequent on observed trends in the timing of stratospheric final warming events. The analysis begins by verifying that final warming events have an impact on tropospheric circulation in a simplified GCM driven by specified equilibrium temperature distributions. Seasonal variations are imposed in the stratosphere only. The model produces qualitatively realistic final warming events whose influence extends down to the surface, much like what has been reported in observational analyses. The authors then go on to study observed trends in surface westerlies composited with respect to the date of final warming events. If the considered hypothesis were correct, these trends would appear to be much weaker when composited with respect to the date of the final warming events. The authors find that this is not the case, and accordingly they conclude that the observed surface changes cannot be attributed simply to this shift toward later final warming events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A strong link exists between stratospheric variability and anomalous weather patterns at the earth's surface. Specifically, during extreme variability of the Arctic polar vortex termed a 'weak vortex event,' anomalies can descend from the upper stratosphere to the surface on time scales of weeks. Subsequently the outbreak of cold-air events have been noted in high northern latitudes, as well as a quadrupole pattern in surface temperature over the Atlantic and western European sectors, but it is currently not understood why certain events descend to the surface while others do not. This study compares a new classification technique of weak vortex events, based on the distribution of potential vorticity, with that of an existing technique and demonstrates that the subdivision of such events into vortex displacements and vortex splits has important implications for tropospheric weather patterns on weekly to monthly time scales. Using reanalysis data it is found that vortex splitting events are correlated with surface weather and lead to positive temperature anomalies over eastern North America of more than 1.5 K, and negative anomalies over Eurasia of up to −3 K. Associated with this is an increase in high-latitude blocking in both the Atlantic and Pacific sectors and a decrease in European blocking. The corresponding signals are weaker during displacement events, although ultimately they are shown to be related to cold-air outbreaks over North America. Because of the importance of stratosphere-troposphere coupling for seasonal climate predictability, identifying the type of stratospheric variability in order to capture the correct surface response will be necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amplitude of upward-propagating tropospherically forced planetary waves is known to be of first-order importance in producing sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). This forcing amplitude is observed to undergo strong temporal fluctuations. Characteristics of the resulting transient forcing leading to SSWs are studied in reanalysis data and in highly truncated simple models of stratospheric wave-mean flow interaction. It is found in both the reanalysis data and the simple models that SSWs are preferentially generated by transient forcing of sufficiently long time scales (on the order of 1 week or longer). The time scale of the transient forcing is found to play a stronger role in producing SSWs than the strength of the forcing. In the simple models it is possible to fix the amplitude of the tropospheric forcing but to vary the time scale of the forcing. The resulting frequency of occurrence of SSWs shows dramatic reductions for decreasing forcing time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER) hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)' retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) of the MME-produced EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850-hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain (20°-60°N, 90°-150°E), was 0.595. This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models (range: 0.39-0.51) for the period 1969-2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height, surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonally and vertically resolved changes in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) were inferred using temperatures measured by the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU), Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU), and radiosondes. Linear trends in an empirically derived 'BDC index' (extratropical minus tropical temperatures), over 1979-2005, were found to be consistent with a significant strengthening of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) branch of the BDC during December throughout the depth of the stratosphere. Trends in the same index suggest a significant strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere branch of the BDC during August through to the midstratosphere, as well as a significant weakening during March in the NH lower stratosphere. Such trends, however, are only significant if it is assumed that interannual variability due to the BDC can be removed by regression of the tropics against the extratropics and vice versa (i.e., exploiting the out-of-phase nature of tropical and extratropical temperatures as demonstrated by previous studies of temperature and the BDC). The possibility that the apparent lower-stratosphere BDC December strengthening and March weakening could point to a change in the seasonal cycle of the circulation is also explored. The differences between a 1979-91 average and 1995-2005 average tropical temperature seasonal cycle in lower-stratospheric MSU data show an apparent shift in the minimum from February to January, consistent with a change in the timing of the maximum wave driving. Additionally, the importance of decadal variability in shaping the overall trends is highlighted, in particular for the suggested March BDC weakening, which may now be strengthening from a minimum in the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO) events are preceded by stratospheric AO events and even earlier in time by anomalous upward energy flux associated with Rossby waves in the troposphere. This study identifies lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies that precede large AO events in both the troposphere and stratosphere and the anomalous upward energy flux. Compositing analysis of stratospheric warming events identifies regional tropospheric precursors, which precede stratospheric warmings. The tropospheric precursor is found to vary when compositing over polar vortex displacements and splits separately. Prior to vortex displacements the main anomaly sea level pressure center of the tropospheric precursor is located across northwest Eurasia and is associated with the Siberian high. Prior to vortex splits a similar anomaly center is identified in the tropospheric precursor but is weaker and appears to be more strongly related to a shift in the storm tracks. Differences in the sea level pressure anomalies in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific are also observed when comparing the precursors prior to vortex displacements and splits. Identification of a unique tropospheric precursor to stratospheric warming and subsequent tropospheric AO events can help to improve understanding troposphere-stratosphere coupling. Furthermore, the observational evidence presented here can be compared with model simulations of winter climate variability and lead to potential model improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A robust feature of the observed response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an altered circulation in the lower stratosphere. When sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific are warmer there is enhanced upwelling and cooling in the tropical lower stratosphere and downwelling and warming in the midlatitudes, while the opposite is true of cooler SSTs. The midlatitude lower stratospheric response to ENSO is larger in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In this study the dynamical version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) is used to simulate 25 realizations of the atmospheric response to the 1982/83 El Niño and the 1973/74 La Niña. This version of CMAM is a comprehensive high-top general circulation model that does not include interactive chemistry. The observed lower stratospheric response to ENSO is well reproduced by the simulations, allowing them to be used to investigate the mechanisms involved. Both the observed and simulated responses maximize in December-March and so this study focuses on understanding the mechanisms involved in that season. The response in tropical upwelling is predominantly driven by anomalous transient synoptic-scale wave drag in the SH subtropical lower stratosphere, which is also responsible for the compensating SH midlatitude response. This altered wave drag stems from an altered upward flux of wave activity from the troposphere into the lower stratosphere between 20° and 40°S. The altered flux of wave activity can be divided into two distinct components. In the Pacific, the acceleration of the zonal wind in the subtropics from the warmer tropical SSTs results in a region between the midlatitude and subtropical jets where there is an enhanced source of low phase speed eddies. At other longitudes, an equatorward shift of the midlatitude jet from the extratropical tropospheric response to El Niño results in an enhanced source of waves of higher phase speeds in the subtropics. The altered resolved wave drag is only apparent in the SH and the difference between the two hemispheres can be related to the difference in the climatological jet structures in this season and the projection of the wind anomalies associated with ENSO onto those structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the Holton-Tan hypothesis [1], oscillations of the equatorial stratospheric wind change the conditions of the vertical and meridional propagation of planetary waves in extratropical regions, which can cause quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) at middle and polar latitudes. To verify the Holton-Tan hypothesis, the intensity of the winter wave activity of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere was estimated at different phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation of the equatorial stratospheric zonal wind. As it turned out, a higher level of the wave activity expected at the easterly phase of the equatorial QBO is characteristic only of the period when the winter circulation is established. At the end of winter a higher level of the wave activity is observed at the westerly QBO phase, which contradicts the Holton-Tan hypothesis. Small but nevertheless noticeable distinctions in the wave activity at low tropospheric levels suggest that the quasi-biennial periodicity of the wave activity at middle latitudes can be caused by oscillations of synoptic processes between the predominantly zonal and meridional forms of the circulation, as was indicated by Pogosyan and Pavlovskaya [2, 3]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Northern Hemisphere extended winter mean stratospheric vortex alternates between a strong and a weak state, which is manifested in a statistically significant bimodal distribution. In the end of the 1970s a regime change took place, increasing the frequency of the strong phase relative to the weak phase. This paper investigates the connection between the regime behavior of the vortex and the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in three different datasets. Although there are some differences between the datasets, they agree regarding the general picture. It is found that stratospheric equatorial wind between 70 and 8 hPa shows a bimodal structure in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Such bimodality is nontrivial as it requires only weak variability in the amplitude. Unimodality is found above 8 hPa, where the semiannual oscillation dominates. A strong coincidence is found between strong (weak) vortex winters and winter in the westerly (easterly) QBO regime. Furthermore, the change of the vortex in the late 1970s can be related to a change in the QBO from a period with strong bimodality to a period with weak bimodality. Careful consideration of the statistical significance shows that this change in the QBO can be a random process simply related to the annual sampling of the QBO. Finally, previous findings of phase locking between the QBO and the annual cycle are considered; it is shown that the phase locking is related to the seasonal variations in the bimodality of the QBO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three datasets (the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the ERA-40 reanalysis and the LMDz-GCM), are used to analyze the relationships between large-scale dynamics of the stratosphere and the tropospheric planetary waves during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. First, a cross-spectral analysis clarifies the time scales at which downward propagation of stratospheric anomalies occurs in the low-frequency band (that is at periods longer than 50 days). At these periods the strength of the polar vortex, measured by the 20-hPa Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index and the wave activity flux, measured by the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm flux (EPz) from both the troposphere and the stratosphere, are significantly related with each other and in lead-lag quadrature. While, in the low-frequency band of the downward propagation, the EPz anomalies of the opposite sign around NAM extremes drive the onset and decay of NAM events, we found that the EPz anomalies in the troposphere, are significantly larger after stratospheric vortex anomalies than at any time before. This marked difference in the troposphere is related to planetary waves with zonal wavenumbers 1-3, showing that there is a tropospheric planetary wave response to the earlier state of the stratosphere at low frequencies. We also find that this effect is due to anomalies in the EPz issued from the northern midlatitudes and polar regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar stratosphere is associated with substantial changes in the atmospheric circulation that extend to the earth’s surface. The mechanisms that drive the changes in the SH troposphere are not fully understood, but most previous hypotheses have focused on the role of atmospheric dynamics rather than that of radiation. This study quantifies the radiative response of temperatures in the SH polar troposphere to the forcing from long-term temperature and ozone trends in the SH polar stratosphere. A novel methodology is employed that explicitly neglects changes in tropospheric dynamics and hence isolates the component of the tropospheric temperature response that is radiatively driven by the overlying stratospheric trends. The results reveal that both the amplitude and seasonality of the observed cooling of the middle and upper SH polar troposphere over the past few decades are consistent with a reduction in downwelling longwave radiation induced by cooling in the SH polar stratosphere. The results are compared with analogous calculations for trends in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar stratosphere. Both the observations and radiative calculations imply that the comparatively weak trends in the NH polar stratosphere have not played a central role in driving NH tropospheric climate change. Overall, the results suggest that radiative processes play a key role in coupling the large trends in SH polar stratospheric temperatures to tropospheric levels. The tropospheric radiative temperature response documented here could be important for triggering the changes in internal tropospheric dynamics associated with stratosphere–troposphere coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric mesoscale kinetic energy spectrum is investigated through numerical simulations of an idealized baroclinic wave life cycle, from linear instability to mature nonlinear evolution and with high horizontal and vertical resolution (Δx ≈ 10 km and Δz ≈ 60 m). The spontaneous excitation of inertia–gravity waves yields a shallowing of the mesoscale spectrum with respect to the large scales, in qualitative agreement with observations. However, this shallowing is restricted to the lower stratosphere and does not occur in the upper troposphere. At both levels, the mesoscale divergent kinetic energy spectrum—a proxy for the inertia–gravity wave energy spectrum—resembles a -5/3 power law in the mature stage. Divergent kinetic energy dominates the lower stratospheric mesoscale spectrum, accounting for its shallowing. Rotational kinetic energy, by contrast, dominates the upper tropospheric spectrum and no shallowing of the full spectrum is observed. By analyzing the tendency equation for the kinetic energy spectrum, it is shown that the lower stratospheric spectrum is not governed solely by a downscale energy cascade; rather, it is influenced by the vertical pressure flux divergence associated with vertically propagating inertia–gravity waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis is performed on the dynamical coupling between the variability of the extratropical stratospheric and tropospheric circulations during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Obtained results provide evidence that in addition to the well-known Charney and Drazin mechanism by which vertical propagation of baroclinic Rossby waves is nonlinearly influenced by the zonal mean zonal wind, topographic forcing constitutes another important mechanism by which nonlinearity is introduced in the troposphere–stratosphere wave-driven coupled variability. On the one hand, vortex variability is forced by baroclinic Rossby wave bursts, with positive (negative) peaks of baroclinic Rossby wave energy occurring during rapid vortex decelerations (accelerations). On the other hand, barotropic Rossby waves of zonal wavenumbers s = 1 and 3 respond to the vortex state, and strong evidence is presented that such a response ismediated by changes of the topographic forcing due to zonal mean zonal wind anomalies progressing downward from the stratosphere. It is shown that wavenumbers s = 1 and 3 are the dominant Fourier components of the topography in the high-latitude belt where the zonal mean zonal wind anomalies are stronger; moreover, obtained results are in qualitative agreement with the analytical solution provided by the simple topographic wave model of Charney and Eliassen. Finally, evidence is provided that changes of barotropic long (s ≤ 3) Rossby waves associated with vortex variability reproduce aNAO-like dipole over theAtlantic Ocean but no dipole is formed over the Pacific Ocean.Moreover, results suggest that the nonlinear wave response to topographic forcingmay explain the spatial changes of the NAO correlation patterns that have been found in previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the equatorial stratosphere and also affects the circulation and temperature of the extratropical region. In this paper we review previous work showing that the mid- to high-latitude circulation is weaker (stronger) when QBO easterlies (westerlies) dominate in the low equatorial stratosphere. The accepted explanation for the extratropical QBO signature is based on the QBO modulation of upward propagating planetary Rossby waves. This mechanism is consistent with the strong seasonality observed in the extratropical QBO. The largest QBO signature in the northern extratropical stratosphere occurs during winter when the dominating westerly wind allows the penetration of planetary waves in the northern stratosphere. However, during the southern winter, planetary waves do not disrupt the southern stratospheric vortex and the largest QBO signature is found during the late spring (November). To further illustrate these mechanisms, we analyze the QBO signature on the mid- to high-latitude circulation of the stratosphere using data from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The extratropical signature in both hemispheres is evaluated as a function of the latitude–height structure of the zonal wind in the tropical region in order to determine how the extratropical response depends on the vertical phase structure of the tropical QBO. We also analyze the QBO impact on planetary wave activity in order to determine how this modulation can explain the observed extratropical QBO signal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to examine the role of the atmospheric circulation in the lower stratosphere in relation to the vertical ozone distribution. This analysis is based on the vertical ozone profiles collected by balloon-borne sondes released at Athens, Greece (38° N, 24° E) during the period 2002-2005 and those derived from Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) observations of ENVISAT. The most pronounced special features of the ozone structure have been used in order to create groups of relevant profiles. The occurrence of the laminated ozone structure, the minimum of ozone partial pressure at the height region of 14-17 km and the ozone minima at the height region of 20-25 km as well as the scalable ozone increment from the region of the characteristic ozone minimum up to the ozone maximum concentration region, correlated with the general circulation, leads to several results. They are (1) the laminated ozone profiles are associated with the north-north-west circulation in the lower stratosphere; (2) the characteristic ozone minimum is related to the influence of the subtropical jet stream circulation; (3) the observed ozone depletion at the height region of 20-25 km is characterized by the movement of the polar vortex to the mid-latitudes, resulting in more intense north-western circulation above our experimental site; and (4) the scalable ozone increment from the characteristic ozone minimum region at 100 hPa up to the region where the ozone partial pressure takes its maximum value was observed on the southern side of the trough during cyclonic flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents statistical analyses of possible associations between major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) and tropospheric blocking events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) with 49 yr of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data from 1957/58 to 2005/06. Using a random shuffling or “bootstrap” method, these analyses explore two hypotheses claiming that blocking events occur preferentially and last longer in association with SSWs (pre- and post-SSW periods are considered separately). In the shuffling method, the defined SSWs are randomly redistributed to evaluate the statistical significance of linked cases in the original data. The author’s analyses generally do not support either hypothesis for the pre- or post-SSW period when treating the SSW events all together, suggesting that such associations are not dominant modes of coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work investigates the dynamic and thermal response of the winter stratosphere to the presence of a weak meridional surface temperature gradient. Previous work suggested that polar stratospheric clouds could have played a decisive role in maintaining high-latitude warmth, especially over continental interiors, during the polar nights of the late Paleocene and early Eocene epochs; both a chemical source of additional water vapor and a dynamical feedback between the surface climate and stratospheric temperatures have been proposed as mechanisms by which such clouds could form. A principal goal of this work is to investigate the latter problem using a general circulation model with stratospheric resolution that is forced with a very weak surface temperature gradient. It is found that temperatures in the lower stratosphere do not deviate significantly from the control run, which results from a robust flux of wave activity into the winter stratosphere. The strength of the stratosphere’s residual circulation increases slightly in the presence of the weak gradient, as wavenumber 3 begins to propagate to stratospheric altitudes. Changes in the zonal wind field that allow for the altered propagation are in balance with a weakened temperature gradient through the full depth of the troposphere. These simulations also suggest that the tropospheric thermal stratification could be maintained by moist convection at all latitudes in warm climate states with a weak temperature gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A composite observational analysis is presented demonstrating that austral stratospheric final warming (SFW) events provide a substantial organizing influence upon the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. In particular, the annual weakening of high-latitude westerlies in the upper troposphere and stratosphere is accelerated during SFW onset. This behavior is associated with a coherent annular circulation change with zonal wind decelerations (accelerations) at high (low) latitudes. The high-latitude stratospheric decelerations are induced by the anomalous wave driving of upward-propagating tropospheric waves. Longitudinally asymmetric circulation changes occur in the lower troposphere during SFW onset with regionally localized height increases (decreases) at subpolar (middle) latitudes. Importantly, the tropospheric and stratospheric circulation change patterns identified here are structurally distinct from the Southern Annular Mode. It is concluded that SFW events are linked to interannual atmospheric variability with potential bearing upon weather and climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the nature and robustness of internal stratospheric variability, namely the variability resulting from the internal dynamics of the stratosphere itself, as opposed to that forced by external sources such as the natural variability of the free troposphere. Internal stratospheric variability arises from the competing actions of radiative forcing, which under perpetual winter conditions strengthens the polar vortex, and planetary wave breaking, which weakens it. The results from a stratosphere-only model demonstrate that strong internal stratospheric variability, consisting of repeated sudden warming-type events, exists over a wide range of realistic radiative and wave forcing conditions, and is largely independent of other physical and numerical parameters. In particular, the coherent form of the variability persists as the number of degrees of freedom is increased, and is therefore not an artifact of severe model truncation. Various diagnostics, including three-dimensional representations of the potential vorticity, illustrate that the variability is determined by the vertical structure of the vortex and the extent to which upward wave propagation is favored or inhibited. In this paper, the variability arising from purely internal stratosphere dynamics is isolated by specifying thermal and wave forcings that are completely time independent. In a second paper, the authors investigate the relative importance of internal and external variability by considering time-dependent wave forcing as a simple representation of tropospheric variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational and numerical evidence suggest that variability in the extratropical stratospheric circulation has a demonstrable impact on tropospheric variability on intraseasonal time scales. In this study, it is demonstrated that the amplitude of the observed tropospheric response to vacillations in the stratospheric flow is quantitatively similar to the zonal-mean balanced response to the anomalous wave forcing at stratospheric levels. It is further demonstrated that the persistence of the tropospheric response is consistent with the impact of anomalous diabatic heating in the polar stratosphere as stratospheric temperatures relax to climatology. The results contradict previous studies that suggest that variations in stratospheric wave drag are too weak to account for the attendant changes in the tropospheric flow. However, the results also reveal that stratospheric processes alone cannot account for the observed meridional redistribution of momentum within the troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global structure of recent stratospheric climate trends is examined in radiosonde data. In contrast to conclusions published in previous assessments of stratospheric temperature trends, it is demonstrated that in the annual mean the tropical stratosphere has cooled substantially over the past few decades. The cooling of the tropical stratosphere is apparent in both nighttime and adjusted radiosonde data, and seems to be robust to changes in radiosonde instrumentation. The meridional structure of the annual-mean stratospheric trends is not consistent with our current understanding of radiative transfer and constituent trends but is consistent with increased upwelling in the tropical stratosphere. The annual-mean cooling of the tropical stratosphere is juxtaposed against seasonally varying trends in the extratropical stratosphere dominated by the well-known springtime cooling at polar latitudes. The polar stratospheric trends are accompanied by similarly signed trends at tropospheric levels in the Southern Hemisphere but not in the Northern Hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropospheric and stratospheric radar wind data obtained at Jicamarca, Peru´ (11.95°S, 76.87°W) during August 17–26, 1998 have been used to estimate the momentum flux of short-period (T<2 h) wind fluctuations together with the estimation uncertainties. As a result of our study we conclude that momentum flux estimates exceeding the measurement uncertainties can be obtained after about one day of integration. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Equilibrium states of initially barotropically unstable polar vortices are predicted using two different approaches: minimum enstrophy and maximum entropy theories, which have been extended to include flows evolving on the surface of a sphere. Minimum enstrophy theory shows very good agreement with an ensemble of direct numerical integrations of a polar vortex that mixes vorticity mainly on a spherical cap. For the case of a polar vortex with a substantial resistance to vorticity mixing at its core, the maximum entropy prediction shows good consistency with an ensemble of direct numerical integrations. Maximum entropy theory gives an additional source of information with its density functions, which in a probabilistic sense reveal how the vorticity field (and therefore the mass field) is redistributed in the equilibrium state. The density functions show good skill in predicting several passive tracer distributions in the numerical experiments. Also, from a local point of view, density functions determine the degree of mixing of initially well separated air masses, information that is valuable in tracing atmospheric chemical components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The background concentrations of atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12 were monitored to assess their impact on stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming from September 1995 to March 1999 at Kosan, Korea, located at eastern margin of the Asian Continent. The concentrations of atmospheric CFC-11 at Kosan have decreased slightly, at a rate of –2.5 pptv yr-1, over the period in response to the Montreal Protocol. The CFC-12 mixing ratio at Kosan continues to increase in the atmosphere at a rate of 5.7 pptv yr-1 despite international regulations, because of its extreme atmosphere persistence. Recent trends of these two chlorofluorocarbons at Kosan, Korea were concordant with those of the northern hemispheric background monitored unit at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The maximum seasonal mean mixing ratios of CFC-11 and CFC-12 at Kosan, Korea, were 270±4 pptv in the spring and 538±9 pptv in the winter, and the corresponding seasonal minima were 267±7 and 529±12 pptv. This occurred in the summer and was due to southeasterly winds from the northwestern Pacific Ocean. By performing a three-day isentropic backward trajectory analysis, it was shown that air masses at Kosan, and with the exception of summer, mainly originated from central and northern China. In particular, the mixing ratios of these two contaminant species are closely related with their air mass trajectories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors comment on an article about the life cycle of the Northern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW). The article considers the life cycle of SSW from onset to maturity and eventually decay by compositing multiple events over the course of 80 days. The main emphasis is on the mature phases of the life cycle when there is a clear chain of downward stratosphere-to-troposphere propagation of anomalies. In this comment, the authors aim to focus on the onset results by placing the results in the context of more regional phenomena reported in earlier studies and providing a more comprehensive framework for understanding wintertime Northern Hemisphere climate variability and improved predictability.