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Cloud–radiation interactions are key to Earth's climate and its susceptibility to change. While their impact on Earth's energy budget has been studied in great detail, their effect on atmospheric temperatures has received little attention, despite its importance for the planetary circulation of the atmosphere and hence for regional climate and weather. Here, we present the first systematic assessment of vertically resolved cloud-radiative heating within the atmosphere in 20 CMIP6 (phase 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project) models, including a comparison to satellite-based estimates. Our analysis highlights model differences in cloud-radiative heating in both the lower and upper troposphere as well as uncertainties related to cloud ice processes. It also illustrates limitations of our ability to observe cloud-radiative heating. Not surprisingly, the response of cloud-radiative heating to surface warming is also uncertain across models. Yet, in the upper troposphere, the response is very well predicted by an upward shift of the present-day heating, which we show results from the fact that cloud-radiative heating in the upper troposphere is a function of air temperature and thus decoupled from surface temperature. Our results have three important implications for upper-tropospheric cloud-radiative heating: they establish a new null hypothesis for its response to warming, offer a physics-based prediction of its response to warming based on present-day observations, and emphasize the need for improving its representation in simulations of the present-day climate, possibly by combining the benefits of upcoming km-scale models and satellite observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface anticyclones connected to the ridge of an upper‐tropospheric Rossby wave are the main dynamical drivers of mid‐latitude summer heatwaves. It is, however, unclear to what extent an anomalously low zonal phase speed of the wave in the upper troposphere is necessary for persistent temperature extremes at the surface. Here, we use spectral decomposition to separate fast and slow synoptic‐scale waves. A composite analysis of ERA5 reanalysis data reveals that, while in some regions heatwaves become more frequent during episodes of weak or no phase propagation, temperature extremes in other regions are commonly associated with more rapidly eastward propagating Rossby waves. Reflected in the mean heatwave duration as well, this relationship is possibly linked to a longitudinal phase preference of slow and fast waves or a meridional storm track shift. These findings open up new questions about the influence of mid‐latitude dynamics on temperature extremes. Plain Language Summary: High pressure systems tend to be associated with mid‐latitude summer heatwaves, defined as multiple consecutive hot days. The persistence of heatwaves raises the question whether the associated high pressure system has to be anomalously persistent as well to cause a heatwave. Using a combination of observational data and atmospheric model output that is commonly regarded as ground truth for prediction purposes we find that this is not the case. By re‐distributing the location of on‐average high air pressure, some regions experience an increased heatwave frequency even if the atmospheric circulation is less persistent than usual. Understanding the link between persistent surface temperature extremes and the atmospheric circulation is important for the prediction and projection of extreme events in a warming climate. Key Points: Phase speed of synoptic‐scale waves is crucial for where, but less important for whether heatwaves occurA longitudinal phase preference of slow and fast waves is reflected in the mean heatwave durationChanges in phase speed are linked to a meridional storm track shift [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold extremes have large impacts on human society. Understanding the physical processes dominating the changes in cold extremes is crucial for a reliable projection of future climate change. The observed cold extremes have decreased during the last several decades, and this trend will continue under future global warming. Here, we quantitatively identify the contributions of dynamic (changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation) and thermodynamic (rising temperatures resulting from global warming) effects to East Asian cold extremes in the past several decades and in a future warm climate by using two sets of large-ensemble simulations of climate models. We show that the dynamic component accounts for over 80 % of the cold-month (coldest 5 % boreal winter months) surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly over the past 5 decades. However, in a future warm climate, the thermodynamic change is the main contributor to the decreases in the intensity and occurrence probability of East Asian cold extremes, while the dynamic change is also contributive. The intensity of East Asian cold extremes will decrease by around 5 °C at the end of the 21st century, in which the thermodynamic (dynamic) change contributes approximately 75 % (25 %). The present-day (1986–2005) East Asian cold extremes will almost never occur after around 2035, and this will happen 10 years later due solely to thermodynamic change. The upward trend of a positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern dominates the changes in the dynamic component. The finding provides a useful reference for policymakers in climate change adaptation activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A main source of regional climate change uncertainty is the large disparity across models in simulating the atmospheric circulation response to global warming. Using the latest suite of global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), a storyline approach is adopted to derive physically plausible scenarios of Antarctic climate change for 2070–99, according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5. These storylines correspond to differences in the simulated amount of seasonal sea ice loss and either (i) the delay in the summertime stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) breakdown or (ii) wintertime SPV strengthening, which together constitute robust drivers of the response pattern to future climate change. Such changes combined are known to exert a strong control over the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet stream, which we quantify as collectively explaining up to 70% of the variance in jet response in summer and 35% in winter. For summer, the expected strengthening and displacement of the tropospheric jet stream varies between a ∼1 and 2 m s−1 increase and ∼2°–4° poleward shift, respectively, across storylines. In both seasons, a larger strengthening of the jet is correlated with less Antarctic warming. By contrast, the response in precipitation is more consistent but still strongly attenuated by large-scale dynamics. We find that an increase in high-latitude precipitation around Antarctica is more pronounced for storylines characterized by a greater poleward jet shift, particularly in summer. Our results highlight the usefulness of the storyline approach in illustrating model uncertainty and understanding the processes that determine the spread in projected Antarctic regional climate response. Significance Statement: Uncertainty in future climate predictions for the Antarctic is dominated by the unknown response of the large-scale (global) atmospheric circulation. In characterizing such uncertainty, plausible outcomes of climate response (storylines) are generated from the organization of model projections according to the amount of simulated seasonal sea ice loss and the delay in summertime breakdown/winter strengthening of the stratospheric westerly circulation (polar vortex). The intensity and location of the tropospheric jet stream is strongly dependent on both factors, which strongly influences the near-surface climate response over Antarctica. We find that the simulated amount that Antarctic air temperatures increase by in the future (to the end of the century) is intrinsically related to the projected intensification of the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric jet, varying by a factor of 2 or more across storylines for summer. Storylines with greater jet strengthening are associated with less Antarctic warming (reduced poleward advection of air masses from lower latitudes). Similar differences are found for changes in jet position, which we note has a much stronger control on mid- to high-latitude precipitation response. This includes both an enhanced wetting response around Antarctica and drying response farther equatorward, for storylines characterized by a greater poleward jet shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau, as a major elevated heat source, plays a critical role in the Asian monsoon and global climate. Observational data revealed significant correlations between spring surface air temperature in the Tibetan Plateau and downstream summer precipitation interannual variations. Sensitivity experiments using the regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) were conducted to understand the physical processes and mechanisms underlying such delayed teleconnections. A positive temperature forcing was imposed over the plateau on the surface and subsurface soil layers only at the initial conditions around May 1st, 2003. This regional forcing quickly induces positive perturbations in local air temperature and, more importantly, maintains its signal in local soil, especially deep layers, for several months. Consequently, the soil temperature serves as a charged capacitor to modulate the planetary atmospheric circulation and through Rossby wave chains to cause significant summer precipitation anomalies over broad regions. This relayed teleconnection pattern is consistent with that identified from observational data records and CWRF climate simulations during 1980–2015. Diagnostic analyses of observations and simulations suggest that the Tibetan Plateau heating significantly impacts summer East Asian monsoon climate through influencing the South Asian High and shifting the East Asian jet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold extremes have large impacts on human society. Understanding the physical processes dominating the changes of cold extremes is crucial for a reliable projection of future climate change. The observed cold extremes have been decreased during last several decades and this trend will continue under the future global warming. Here, we quantitatively identify the contributions of dynamic (changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation) and thermodynamic (rising temperatures resulting from global warming) effects to East Asian cold extremes in the past several decades and in a future warm climate by using two sets of large ensemble simulation of climate models. We show that the dynamic component accounts for over 80 % of the cold-month (coldest 5 % boreal winter months) surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly in the past five decades. However, in a future warm climate, the thermodynamic change is the main contributor to the decreases in the intensity and occurrence probability of East Asian cold extremes, while the dynamic change is also contributive. The intensity of East Asian cold extremes will decrease by around 5℃ at the end of the 21st century, in which the thermodynamic (dynamic) change contributes approximately 75 % (25 %). The present-day (1986–2005) East Asian cold extremes will almost never occur after around 2035, and this will happen eight years later due solely to thermodynamic change. The upward trend of a positive Arctic Oscillation-like sea level pressure pattern dominates the changes in the dynamic component. The finding provides a useful reference for policymakers in climate change adaptation activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer surface air temperatures (SAT) over Eurasia exhibit a non‐uniform multidecadal pattern since the 1990s, with amplified warming over Europe–West Asia (EWA) and Northeast Asia (NEA) but weak warming over Central Asia. However, current climate models may inadequately capture this regional pattern. In this study, we evaluated the performance of 44 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating the decadal variability of Eurasian temperatures. Results show that all the CMIP6 models generally reproduce the largest SAT trends from 1985 to 2020 over EWA and NEA. However, the models fail to capture the non‐uniform warming pattern and the SAT magnitudes are underestimated in most CMIP6 models. We compare "good" and "poor" ensemble, which represent the best and worst simulations of the non‐uniform warming, in order to understand the inter‐model spread. The BMME models capture the teleconnection wave trains from northwest Europe to East Asia, and the associated summer North Atlantic Oscillation like circulation changes. In contrast, the WMME models fail to reproduce such teleconnections. The contrast between the BMME and WMME simulations give a measure of confidence that the non‐uniform warming pattern over Eurasia is tightly coupled with the upper‐tropospheric wave‐like pattern over Eurasia. If such atmospheric circulation changes cannot be reproduced, the non‐uniform warming pattern over Eurasia will not be captured. Our results suggest a fundamental pattern of atmospheric circulation changes that determine the non‐uniform warming variations in model simulations. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies have documented pronounced multidecadal temperature variations in summer during the late 20th century over Eurasia, with accelerated warming over Europe–West Asia (EWA) and Northeast Asia (NEA), but weak warming over Central Asia. Whether Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models are able to adequately reproduce this non‐uniform pattern remain unknown. Here we quantitatively evaluated the performance of 44 CMIP6 models in simulating the summer surface air temperatures decadal variations over Eurasia since 1950 and further investigated the key factors in causing the differences in the simulation ability among the models. Our results show that a good performance of the model is closely related to its ability in simulating the Silk Road Pattern, which can induce the intrinsic teleconnection wave trains, causing the anticyclonic circulations around EWA and NEA, and increase warm advection and downward shortwave radiation, leading to amplified warming there. Our findings provide a perspective of physical linkage to understand the model uncertainty in simulating the non‐uniform multidecadal pattern over Eurasia. Key Points: Evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models for the summer non‐uniform multidecadal temperature variations over EurasiaThe magnitudes of non‐uniform warming variations are substantially underestimated in most CMIP6 modelsSimulation of the upper‐tropospheric wave‐like pattern is key and significantly affects the model's performance in simulating the surface air temperatures [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is changing the earth system processes that control the characteristics of natural hazards both globally and across Australia. Model projections of hazards under future climate change are necessary for effective adaptation. This paper presents BARPA-R (the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Projections for Australia), a regional climate model designed to downscale climate projections over the Australasian region with the purpose to investigate future hazards. BARPA-R, a limited area model, has a 17 km horizontal grid-spacing and makes use of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) atmospheric model and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. To establish credibility and in compliance with the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) experiment design, the BARPA-R framework has been used to downscale ERA-5 reanalysis. Here, an assessment of this evaluation experiment is provided. First, an examination of BARPA-R's representation of Australia's surface air temperature, rainfall and 10-m winds finds good performance overall, with biases including a 1K cold bias in daily maximum temperatures, reduced diurnal temperature range, and wet biases up to 25 mm/month in inland Australia. Recent trends in diurnal maximum temperatures are consistent with observational products, while trends in minimum temperatures show overestimated warming and trends in rainfall show underestimated wetting in northern Australia. Rainfall and temperature teleconnections are effectively represented in BARPA-R when present in the driving boundary conditions, while 10-metre winds are improved over ERA5 in six out of eight of the Australian regions considered. The second section of the paper considers the representation of large-scale atmospheric circulation features and weather systems. While generally well represented, convection-related features such as tropical cyclones, the SPCZ, Northwest Cloud-Bands and the monsoon westerlies show more divergence from observations and internal interannual variability than mid-latitude phenomena such as the westerly jets and extra-tropical cyclones. Having simulated a realistic Australasian climate, the BARPA-R framework will be used to downscale two climate change scenarios from seven CMIP6 GCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Associations between tropospheric ozone (O3) and climate variations have been extensively investigated worldwide. However, given the lack of historical O3 monitoring data, the knowledge gaps regarding the influences of climate variations on long-term O3 trends in China remain. The present study used a unique tropospheric O3 dataset from the summer of 1999 to 2017 simulated by an atmospheric chemistry model to explore the linkage between summer O3 and a dominant atmospheric circulation system – the Western Pacific Subtropical High Pressure (WPSH) on an interannual basis in China. During this period, both WPSH strength and O3 concentrations in eastern and central China illustrated a growing trend. An EOF analysis was conducted to examine significant summer O3 characteristics and patterns and their potential connections with the WPSH. We show that the WPSH determines interannual fluctuations of summer O3, whereas O3 precursor emissions contribute primarily to the O3 long-term trend. Special efforts were made to discern the associations of O3 variations in major urban agglomerations of China and the WPSH. The results reveal that the WPSH plays a more vital role in O3 perturbation in the eastern seaboard regions and inland China, but leads to lower O3 levels in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. Precursor emissions made more significant contributions up to 60 % to increasing O3 trends in the inland urban agglomerations than coastal regions in eastern and southern China. The strongest contribution of meteorological conditions associated with the WPSH to summer ozone concentration occurred in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), accounting for over 9 % to ozone perturbations from 1999 to 2017. Overall, we find that the effect of the WPSH on regional O3 depends on the spatial proximity to the WPSH. We attributed the effects of the WPSH on O3 interannual variations to the changes in air temperature, precipitation, and winds associated with the WPSH's intensity and positions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Antarctica exhibits a pronounced sea ice variability in interannual timescale, and 20%–30% of the total variance can be explained by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during austral spring. The sea ice variation is primarily linked with anomalous atmospheric circulation in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Sea (ABS) that modulates poleward atmospheric temperature advection and radiative forcing. With a co‐varying relationship between ENSO and IOD, isolating their remote impacts on Antarctica has been limited in observations. An idealized experiment using the atmospheric model with a dry dynamical core suggests that the anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the ABS is primarily contributed by the ENSO in the Pacific Ocean, while the contribution of the IOD in the Indian Ocean is only one‐third large. This study implies that atmospheric teleconnection through the southern Pacific Ocean is crucial for understanding the West Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. Plain Language Summary: Antarctic sea ice, which affects the Earth's climate system, has gained considerable attention in recent years. Previous studies have shown that the El Nino‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropics affect the sea ice variation in West Antarctica through atmospheric teleconnections at interannual timescale. Unfortunately, due to the high positive correlation between these two climate modes, it is unclear how each phenomenon contributes to the West Antarctic sea ice variation. Therefore, this study investigates the underlying mechanisms related to the sea ice changes caused by ENSO and IOD during austral spring and quantifies the effect of each phenomenon on the West Antarctic sea ice through an idealized model experiment. It is found that the ENSO and the IOD account for 20%–30% of sea ice variance during austral spring, which is primarily contributed by the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms associated with atmospheric circulation in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Sea (ABS). In addition, we confirm through the model experiments that the effect of ENSO in the Pacific Ocean on the atmospheric circulation patterns of ABS is about three times stronger than that of IOD in the Indian Ocean. Key Points: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) account for 20%–30% of the variability in total sea ice concentration in austral springThe tropical variability affects circulation anomalies in the Amundsen‐Bellingshausen Sea, leading to sea ice variations in West AntarcticaAn idealized atmospheric model experiment suggests the ENSO effect on the West Antarctic circulation is much stronger than the IOD [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic sea ice loss has been observed, and its potential influences on the midlatitude weather and climate have been extensively examined, but strongly debated. This study instead investigates influences of Arctic sea ice loss on the Eastern Hemisphere westerly wind on the poleward side of the polar front jet (PFJ), which has significantly weakened in winter but strengthened in summer since 1980s. Observational analyses indicate that the Eastern Hemisphere PFJ anomalies in winter and summer are strongly correlated with Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric circulation, surface air temperature and precipitation changes, and that the winter PFJ variability is significantly correlated to Barents-Kara sea ice anomalies from autumn and winter at interannual time scales. About 58% of the observed winter PFJ weakened trend during 1979–2014 is congruent with the autumn sea ice index over the Barents-Kara Seas. Atmospheric model ensemble simulations from four models show that Arctic sea ice loss contributes to Arctic warming in winter and reduces the northern Eurasia-pole temperature contrast, leading to an significant weakening winter PFJ. Ensemble mean effects of four models and each model due to Arctic sea ice loss explain about 10–20% of the observed winter PFJ weakening trend, because the model simulations underestimate observed impacts of sea ice reduction on Arctic troposphere warming. In summer, the strengthening PFJ is mostly controlled by increasing greenhouse gases and sea surface temperature changes outside the Arctic, but is little affected by Arctic sea ice loss. Our observational and numerical results consistently suggest that a dynamical pathway linking observed Arctic sea ice loss to northern Eurasian winter is through its weakening effect on the westerly wind on the poleward side of the PFJ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The warm Arctic–cold continent pattern (WACC) of near-surface air temperature variability has often been associated with the connection between Arctic sea ice reduction and cold weather over the midlatitude continents. Whether the existence of this pattern is due to variability of sea ice or is caused by atmospheric internal dynamics is subject to debate. Based on a long integration of a primitive equation atmospheric model (SGCM), this study examines the origin of the warm Arctic–cold North American pattern (WACNA), which is characterized by a pair of opposite surface air temperature anomalies over the high-latitude Chukchi–Bering Sea region and the North American continent, in boreal winter on the intraseasonal time scale. The model atmosphere is maintained by a time-independent forcing, so that atmospheric internal dynamics is the only source of variability. It is found that the SGCM model simulates well the behavior of the observed WACNA pattern. The WACNA pattern develops by interacting with the time-mean flow and synoptic-scale transient eddies. Two pathways of Rossby wave propagation are associated with WACNA. The northern pathway originates from eastern Siberia moving eastward across the Bering Strait to Canada, and the southern pathway is rooted in the subtropical waveguide propagating across the eastern North Pacific. Our simulation of this pattern implies that tropospheric dynamics alone can generate the WACNA, and the predictability associated with this pattern is likely limited by its internal dynamics nature. Significance Statement: The warm Arctic–cold continent pattern of temperature variability has often been associated with the connection between Arctic sea ice reduction and cold weather over the midlatitude continents, which implies possible impacts of polar warming on midlatitude climate. There has been debate on whether the existence of this pattern depends on variability of sea ice or can be caused by processes within the atmosphere. In this study, we use a simple atmospheric model, which has a constant forcing; thus, atmospheric internal dynamics is the only source of variability. We show that atmospheric internal dynamics alone can generate the warm Arctic–cold North American pattern. The result has implications for our understanding of the impact of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European climate variability is shaped by atmospheric dynamics over the North Atlantic and local processes. Better understanding their future seasonality is essential to anticipate changes in weather conditions for human and natural systems. We explore atmospheric seasonality over 1979–2017 and 1979–2100 with seasonal circulation regimes (SCRs), by clustering year‐round daily fields of Z500 from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis and 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models (historical and RCP8.5 runs). The spatial and temporal variability of SCR structures and associated patterns of surface air temperature are investigated. Climate models have biases but reproduce structures and evolutions of SCRs similar to the reanalysis over 1979–2017: decreasing frequency of winter conditions (starting later and ending earlier in the year) and the opposite for summer conditions. These changes are stronger over 1979–2100 than over 1979–2017, associated with a large increase of North Atlantic seasonal mean Z500 and temperature. When using more SCRs (more freedom in definition of seasonality), the changes over 1979–2100 correspond to a long‐term swap between SCRs, resulting in similar structures (annual cycle and spatial patterns) relative to the evolution of seasonal mean Z500 and temperature. To understand whether the evolution of SCRs is linked to uniform warming, or to changes in circulation patterns, we remove the calendar trend in the Z500 regional average to define SCRs based on detrended data (d‐SCRs). The temporal properties of d‐SCRs appear almost constant whereas their spatial patterns change, indicating that the calendar Z500 regional trend drives the evolutions of SCRs, and that changing spatial patterns in d‐SCRs account for the heterogeneity of this trend. Our study suggests that historical winter conditions will continue to decrease in the future while historical summer conditions continue to increase. However, it also suggests that the spatial and temporal patterns of SCRs would remain similar, relatively to the year‐round Z500 increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate models (RCMs) and reanalysis datasets provide valuable information for assessing the vulnerability of ice shelves to collapse over Antarctica, which is important for future global sea level rise estimates. Within this context, this paper examines variability in snowfall, near-surface air temperature and melt across products from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) and Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) RCMs, as well as the ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Seasonal and trend decomposition using LOESS (STL) is applied to split the monthly time series at each model grid cell into trend, seasonal and residual components. Significant systematic differences between outputs are shown for all variables in the mean and in the seasonal and residual standard deviations, occurring at both large and fine spatial scales across Antarctica. Results imply that differences in the atmospheric dynamics, parametrisation, tuning and surface schemes between models together contribute more significantly to large-scale variability than differences in the driving data, resolution, domain specification, ice sheet mask, digital elevation model and boundary conditions. Despite significant systematic differences, high temporal correlations are found for snowfall and near-surface air temperature across all products at fine spatial scales. For melt, only moderate correlation exists at fine spatial scales between different RCMs and low correlation between RCM and reanalysis outputs. Root mean square deviations (RMSDs) between all outputs in the monthly time series for each variable are shown to be significant at fine spatial scales relative to the magnitude of annual deviations. Correcting for systematic differences results in significant reductions in RMSDs, suggesting the importance of observations and further development of bias-correction techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, 2-m or near-surface air temperature (T2m) products from atmospheric reanalysis ERA5 and the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2 over Greenland are compared with observations from staffed stations and Automated Weather Stations (AWS). The results show the following: 1) Greenland experienced decadal periods of both cooling and warming during 1958–2020, with an inflection point around the mid-1990s, and no significant warming after ∼2005 except in the north and northeast. 2) In the full time series, the magnitude of the warming increases gradually from south to north, with peak warming found along the northeastern coast. 3) The most intense warming occurred in autumn and winter, notably in the northeast. 4) The correlations of T2m with the large-scale circulation indices NAO and GBI are highly significant, but they gradually weaken from southwestern to northeastern Greenland. Under the background of Greenland rapidly warming, the shift from positive to negative NAO (negative to positive GBI) is critical to the sudden warming in Greenland since the mid-1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continuous simulations from the middle of the 20th century to the end of the 21st century were performed using a 20-km atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), and a 60-km AGCM with dynamical downscaling via a 20-km regional climate model (RCM), to explore the transitional changes in regional extreme events. The representative scenario simulations by the AGCMs followed the protocol of the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project experiments. In addition, ensemble simulations using four emission scenarios were conducted using the 60-km AGCM with 20-km RCM downscaling. Regardless of the emission scenario used, the global-mean relative increase in annual maximum daily precipitation (Rx1d) was roughly proportional to the increase in the global-mean surface air temperature (SAT), consistent with previous results from coarser-resolution climate models. It means that the relationship is also valid for a higher-resolution model. A similar correlation between Rx1d and SAT was seen also in the values averaged over the Japanese land area in the 20-km AGCM and the 20-km RCM simulations after applying a 10-year running mean. However, it was not so clear in the 60-km AGCM, mainly because of insufficient grid points over land in Japan in the 60-km AGCM owing to too large noise. This suggests that transitional changes in Rx1d at regional scales such as the Japanese land area can only be represented by using a model resolution as high as 20 km, unless using ensemble simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interdecadal variations of the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indo-China Peninsula (ICP) surface air temperature (SAT) in winter are investigated in the study. Generally, there exists a positive correlation between them during 1958–2015 because the ENSO-induced anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) is conducive to pronounced temperature advection anomalies over the ICP. However, such correlation is unstable in time, having experienced a high-to-low transition around the mid-1970s and a recovery since the early 1990s. This oscillating relationship is owing to the anomalous WNPAC intensity in different decades. During the epoch of high correlation, the anomalous WNPAC and associated southwesterly winds over the ICP are stronger, which brings amounts of warm temperature advection and markedly heats the ICP. In contrast, a weaker WNPAC anomaly and insignificant ICP SAT anomalies are the circumstances for the epoch of low correlation. It is also found that substantial southwesterly wind anomalies over the ICP related to the anomalous WNPAC occur only when large sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the northwest Indian Ocean (NWIO) coincide with ENSO (viz., when the ENSO–NWIO SST connection is strong). The NWIO SST anomalies are capable of driving favorable atmospheric circulation that effectively alters ICP SAT and efficiently modulates the ENSO–ICP SAT correlation, which is further supported by numerical simulations utilizing the Community Atmospheric Model, version 4 (CAM4). This paper emphasizes the non-stationarity of the ENSO–ICP SAT relationship and also uncovers the underlying modulation factors, which has important implications for the seasonal prediction of the ICP temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the development of sophisticated statistical and dynamical climate models, a relative long-term and reliable prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has remained a challenging problem. Toward achieving this goal, here we construct a series of dynamical and physical climate networks based on the global near-surface air temperature field. We show that some characteristics of the directed and weighted climate networks can serve as efficient long-term predictors for ISMR forecasting. The developed prediction method produces a forecasting skill of 0.54 (Pearson correlation) with a 5-month lead time by using the previous calendar year's data. The skill of our ISMR forecast is better than that of operational forecasts models, which have, however, quite a short lead time. We discuss the underlying mechanism of our predictor and associate it with network–ENSO and ENSO–monsoon connections. Moreover, our approach allows predicting the all-India rainfall, as well as the rainfall different homogeneous Indian regions, which is crucial for agriculture in India. We reveal that global warming affects the climate network by enhancing cross-equatorial teleconnections between the southwest Atlantic, the western part of the Indian Ocean, and the North Asia–Pacific region, with significant impacts on the precipitation in India. A stronger connection through the chain of the main atmospheric circulations patterns benefits the prediction of the amount of rainfall. We uncover a hotspot area in the midlatitude South Atlantic, which is the basis for our predictor, the southwest Atlantic subtropical index (SWAS index). Remarkably, the significant warming trend in this area yields an improvement of the prediction skill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Superimposed on a warming trend, Arctic winter surface air temperature (SAT) exhibits substantial interannual variability, the underlying mechanisms of which are unclear, especially with regard to the role of sea ice variations and atmospheric processes. Here, atmospheric reanalysis data and idealized atmospheric model simulations are used to reveal the mechanisms by which sea ice variations and atmospheric anomalous conditions affect interannual variations in wintertime Arctic SAT. Results show that near-surface interannual warming in the Arctic is accompanied by comparable warming throughout large parts of the Arctic troposphere and large-scale anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns. Within the Arctic, changes in large-scale atmospheric circulations due to internal atmospheric variability explain a substantial fraction of interannual variation in SAT and tropospheric temperatures, which lead to an increase in moisture and downward longwave radiation, with the rest likely coming from sea ice–related and other surface processes. Arctic winter sea ice loss allows the ocean to release more heat and moisture, which enhances Arctic warming; however, this effect on SAT is confined to the ice-retreat area and has a limited influence on large-scale atmospheric circulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modern history of North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows variability coinciding with changes in air temperature and rainfall over the Northern Hemisphere. There is a debate about this variability and, in particular, whether it is internal to the ocean‐atmosphere system or is forced by external factors (natural and anthropogenic). Here we present a temperature record, obtained using the Sr/Ca ratio measured in a skeleton of a sclerosponge, that shows agreement with the instrumental record over the past 150 years as well as multidecadal temperature variability over the last 600 years. Comparison with climate simulations of the last millennium shows that large cooling events recorded, in the sclerosponge, are consistent with natural (primarily volcanic activity) and anthropogenic forcings. There are, however, multidecadal periods not connected to current estimates of external forcing over the last millennium allowing for alternative explanations, such as internally driven changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation. Key Points: A high‐resolution 600‐year proxy temperature record from the subtropical Atlantic shows multidecadal temperature variabilityIn both models and observations, surface temperatures at this site are reflective of basin‐wide multidecadal variabilityComparison with Last Millennium climate model simulations shows the fingerprint of volcanically induced cooling [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of future Arctic amplification (AA) on the extratropical atmospheric circulation remains unclear in modeling studies. Using a collection of coordinated atmospheric and coupled global climate model perturbation experiments, we find an emergent relationship between the high‐latitude 1,000–500 hPa thickness response and an enhancement of the Siberian High in winter. This wave number‐1‐like sea level pressure anomaly pattern is linked to an equatorward shift of the eddy‐driven jet and a dynamical cooling response in eastern Asia. Additional simulations, where AA is imposed directly into the model domain by nudging, demonstrate how the sea ice forcing is insufficient by itself to capture the vertical extent of the warming and by extension the amplitude of the response in the Siberian High. This study demonstrates the importance of the vertical extent of the tropospheric warming over the polar cap in revealing the "warm Arctic, cold Siberia" anomaly pattern in future projections. Plain Language Summary: Surface air temperature averaged within the Arctic Circle is rising more than twice as fast as the rate of the globally averaged temperature. This is known as "Arctic amplification" and is the result of numerous feedbacks in the Earth system. This warming is not restricted to the surface, as the temperature is also increasing at least to the middle troposphere in the Arctic. The effects of this warming on weather patterns in the midlatitudes remain uncertain in observations and model simulations. In this study, we conduct a series of climate model experiments to better understand how the vertical extent of warming in the Arctic atmosphere connects to a strengthening of the Siberian High in boreal winter. This high‐pressure response leads to colder air temperatures in eastern Asia through advection. We find that climate models prescribed with only Arctic sea ice loss do not fully capture the vertical extent of warming in the atmosphere, and thus underestimate the linkage between projected Arctic amplification and Eurasian climate. Key Points: Climate models forced only by sea ice anomalies do not capture the vertical extent of Arctic warming during winterIncrease in thickness of the winter 1,000–500 hPa layer is linked to a strengthening of the Siberian High and cold anomalies in eastern AsiaRole of the stratosphere is unclear due to large internal variability at future global warming of 2° C above preindustrial levels [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Svalbard Archipelago has undergone rapid warming in the recent decades leading to warmer and wetter winter conditions. This study relates the present (2013–2018) 2 m temperature, precipitation, and rain‐on‐snow (ROS) climate in Svalbard to different atmospheric circulation (AC) types utilizing the high‐resolution numerical weather prediction model Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME)‐Arctic. We find that the 2 m median temperatures vary most across AC types in winter and spring and in summer they vary the least. In all seasons the 10th percentile 2 m temperatures are above 0°C with southwesterly AC types over Svalbard. In comparison, the relationship between AC type and precipitation varies more spatially, with most accumulated precipitation and highest median precipitation intensities with onshore flow over open water. Our results suggest that sea ice explains a large part of the local variability in both 2 m temperature and precipitation. In the studied period ROS is a frequent phenomenon up to 150 m above sea level (ASL) on land, with most events in the southwestern parts of the archipelago (57 cases during five winter seasons). ROS events in winter occur predominantly with AC types from the southerly sector or during a low‐pressure center/trough passage. The southwesterly cyclonic AC type, with a low‐pressure center west of Svalbard, is the most frequent AC type for ROS events. In addition to being the most frequent, the southwesterly AC has the largest spatial coverage of ROS. Plain Language Summary: The Svalbard Archipelago has undergone rapid warming in the recent decades leading to warmer and wetter winter conditions. This study relates the present (2013–2018) 2 m temperature, precipitation, and rain‐on‐snow (ROS) climate to different atmospheric circulation (AC) types utilizing the high‐resolution numerical weather prediction model Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME)‐Arctic. We found that winter and spring 2 m median temperatures vary most across AC types and in summer they vary the least. Our results suggest that sea ice explains a large part of the local variability in both 2 m temperature and precipitation. In the studied period ROS is a frequent phenomenon up to 150 m ASL on land, with most events in the southwestern parts of the archipelago (57 cases during five winter seasons). The majority of these events occur in southwesterly cyclonic AC type, with a low‐pressure center west of Svalbard. In addition to being the most frequent, the southwesterly AC has the largest spatial coverage of ROS. Key Points: Winter and spring temperature and precipitation conditions in Svalbard are most sensitive to the synoptic flow directionAt the northern and eastern parts of Svalbard the precipitation intensity appears to depend on upstream sea ice conditionsRain‐on‐snow events in Svalbard have the largest spatial coverage under southwesterly synoptic flow [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European climate variability is shaped by atmospheric dynamics and local physical processes over the North Atlantic region. As both have strong seasonal features, a better insight of their future seasonality is essential to anticipate changes in weather conditions for human and natural systems. We explore the weather seasonality of the North Atlantic over 1979-2017 and 1979-2100 by using seasonal weather regimes (SWRs) defined by clustering year-round daily fields of geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and 12 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project fifth phase (CMIP5). The spatial and temporal variability of SWR structures is investigated, as well as associated patterns of surface air temperature. Although the climate models have biases, they reproduce structures and evolutions of SWRs similar to the reanalysis over 1979-2017: decreasing frequency of winter conditions (starting later and ending earlier in the year) and increasing frequency of summer conditions (starting earlier and ending later). These changes are stronger over 1979-2100 than over 1979-2017, associated with a large increase of North Atlantic seasonal mean Z500 and temperature. When using more SWRs (i.e. more freedom in the definition of seasonality), the changes over 1979-2100 correspond to a long-term swap between SWRs, resulting in similar structures (seasonal cycle and weather patterns) with respect to the evolution of the seasonal cycle of Z500 and temperature. To understand whether the evolution of the SWRs is linked to uniform Z500 increase (i.e. uniform warming), or to changes in Z500 spatial patterns (i.e. changes in circulation patterns), we remove the calendar trend in the Z500 regional average to define SWRs based on detrended data (d-SWRs). The temporal properties of d-SWRs appear almost constant, whereas their spatial patterns change. This indicates that the calendar Z500 regional trend drives the evolution of the SWRs and that the changing spatial patterns in d-SWRs account for the heterogeneity of this trend. Our study suggests that historical winter conditions will continue to decrease in the future while historical summer conditions continue to increase. It also suggests that according to an increasing seasonal cycle, the seasonality of weather conditions would not change in a major way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses great risks to western Canada's ecosystem and socioeconomical development. To assess these hydroclimatic risks under high-end emission scenario RCP8.5, this study used the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model at a convection-permitting (CP) 4 km resolution to dynamically downscale the mean projection of a 19-member CMIP5 ensemble by the end of the 21st century. The CP simulations include a retrospective simulation (CTL, 2000–2015) for verification forced by ERA-Interim and a pseudo-global warming (PGW) for climate change projection forced with climate change forcing (2071–2100 to 1976–2005) from CMIP5 ensemble added on ERA-Interim. The retrospective WRF-CTL's surface air temperature simulation was evaluated against Canadian daily analysis ANUSPLIN, showing good agreements in the geographical distribution with cold biases east of the Canadian Rockies, especially in spring. WRF-CTL captures the main pattern of observed precipitation distribution from CaPA and ANUSPLIN but shows a wet bias near the British Columbia coast in winter and over the immediate region on the lee side of the Canadian Rockies. The WRF-PGW simulation shows significant warming relative to CTL, especially over the polar region in the northeast during the cold season, and in daily minimum temperature. Precipitation changes in PGW over CTL vary with the seasons: in spring and late autumn precipitation increases in most areas, whereas in summer in the Saskatchewan River basin and southern Canadian Prairies, the precipitation change is negligible or decreased slightly. With almost no increase in precipitation and much more evapotranspiration in the future, the water availability during the growing season will be challenging for the Canadian Prairies. The WRF-PGW projected warming is less than that by the CMIP5 ensemble in all seasons. The CMIP5 ensemble projects a 10 %–20 % decrease in summer precipitation over the Canadian Prairies and generally agrees with WRF-PGW except for regions with significant terrain. This difference may be due to the much higher resolution of WRF being able to more faithfully represent small-scale summer convection and orographic lifting due to steep terrain. WRF-PGW shows an increase in high-intensity precipitation events and shifts the distribution of precipitation events toward more extremely intensive events in all seasons. Due to this shift in precipitation intensity to the higher end in the PGW simulation, the seemingly moderate increase in the total amount of precipitation in summer east of the Canadian Rockies may underestimate the increase in flooding risk and water shortage for agriculture. The change in the probability distribution of precipitation intensity also calls for innovative bias-correction methods to be developed for the application of the dataset when bias correction is required. High-quality meteorological observation over the region is needed for both forcing high-resolution climate simulation and conducting verification. The high-resolution downscaled climate simulations provide abundant opportunities both for investigating local-scale atmospheric dynamics and for studying climate impacts on hydrology, agriculture, and ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the reliability of an indirect method of inferring the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss from CMIP5 simulations, by comparing the response inferred from the indirect method to that explicitly simulated in sea ice perturbation experiments. We find that the indirect approach works well in winter, but has limited utility in the other seasons. We then apply a modified version of the indirect method to 11 CMIP5 models to reveal the robust and non‐robust aspects of the wintertime atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. Despite limitations of the indirect method, we identify a robust enhancement of the Siberian High, weakening of the Icelandic Low, weakening of the westerly wind on the poleward flank of the eddy‐driven jet, strengthening of the subtropical jet, and weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. The surface air temperature response to projected Arctic sea ice loss over mid‐latitude continents is non‐robust across the models. Plain Language Summary: The continued melt of Arctic sea ice will likely affect weather and climate in places far from the Arctic. To better understand the far‐flung implications of sea ice loss, scientists can perform bespoke climate model experiments in which sea ice is reduced, but all other climate drivers are fixed. In our paper, we test the reliability of an indirect method to infer the atmospheric response to sea ice loss, which makes use of a large set of climate model experiments originally performed for other purposes. We find that the indirect approach works well in winter, but not so well in other seasons. We then apply the indirect method to 11 climate models to reveal the robust and non‐robust aspects of the wintertime atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss—the largest such comparison to date. We found that the models agreed on quite a few aspects of the response, including warming over the Arctic, regional surface pressure changes over Siberia and Iceland, and a slowing of the mid‐latitude jet stream. On the other hand, the models disagreed on whether surface air temperatures over Europe, North America, and East Asia will warm or cool in response to future Arctic sea ice loss. Key Points: Wintertime atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea‐ice loss can be well‐estimated indirectly from CMIP5 simulationsRobust changes across models including stronger Siberian High, weaker Icelandic Low, slower eddy‐driven jet and faster subtropical jetNon‐robust changes in surface air temperature over mid‐latitude continents and sea level pressure over the North Pacific [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Europe has experienced many extreme heat waves over the past few decades. In this study, the physical processes underlying these long-lasting and wide-ranging heat wave events are investigated based on a case study in Europe in June 2021. Heat waves are associated with barotropic anticyclonic anomalies accompanied by positive geopotential height anomalies locally. These anomalies persist under the conditions of increased meridional air temperature gradients of the mid–upper troposphere in the high latitudes of Eurasia and the formation of the Arctic front jet. The shrinking high-latitude snow cover in April–May favors higher surface temperatures and larger meridional temperature gradients in June in the mid–upper troposphere due to the soil moisture–evaporation–temperature positive feedback process. The summer Arctic front jet is then strengthened, and the mid-latitude westerly winds are weakened. This atmospheric circulation background favors waveguide formation and wave resonance that produces high-amplitude atmospheric waves and the stagnation of ridges in the mid-latitudes. Numerical experiments using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 verify the proposed physical mechanisms, with the climatic responses in sensitivity experiments to anomalous snowfall rates closely resembling the observational results. Therefore, in June 2021, under the identified atmospheric circulation background and the perturbation of the upstream positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the large-scale barotropic high pressure and barotropic anticyclonic circulation in the study region tended to be stable and persistent, which is favorable for the production of long-lasting and wide-ranging heat wave events. • Physical mechanisms underlying heat waves are investigated based on a case study in Europe in June 2021. • Shrinking Eurasian snow cover in spring favors the strengthened summer Arctic front jet that produces high-amplitude waves. • Upstream positive NAO in June 2021 favors a sequence of waves downstream and affect persistent anticyclone for heat waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate projections simulated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM2.5) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios are analyzed based on future changes of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation with respect to the historical reference period 1971–2000. Since BESM2.5 is the only climate model developed in a South American country, this study gives a particular emphasis to South American future climate projections. Regarding the surface air temperature, BESM2.5 projects a steady warming throughout the 21st century, with the highest warming over eastern Amazonia, northern Chile and central South America for both scenarios. The SAT changes range between 2 °C and 3–4 °C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. On the other hand, projected precipitation varies over different regions of South America, with decreasing and increasing trends over the Amazon and southern South America, respectively. Interestingly, this study shows contrasting results with respect to extreme precipitation indicators, projecting enhanced extreme events with higher numbers of both consecutive dry days and days in which the precipitation exceeds 20 mm over the southeastern region. The model projects a meridional dipole pattern in the precipitation, with decreasing precipitation and longer dry spells over Northeast Brazil and the East Amazon region and increasing precipitation and shorter dry spells over Northwest South America and West Amazon, that is driven by future changes in the SLP that imposes a meridional gradient over these regions, causing the increase of westerlies that are likely to increase the moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean into western South America and the weakening of the easterlies that transport moisture over eastern South America and East Amazon. • The study presents the future projections on surface air temperature and precipitation over South America simulated by BESM2.5. • It is projected to warm over the entire continent, with the highest warming over eastern Amazonia, northern Chile, and central South America. • It is projected enhanced extreme events with higher numbers of both CDD and R20 over the southeastern region. • The projected atmospheric circulation changes are also analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Instrumental observations have highlighted strong interconnections within the Antarctic climate system between atmosphere, ocean and sea ice over the past few decades. Our goal in this study is to leverage these links by combining marine and terrestrial records with climate modeling results, using data assimilation, to reconstruct past climate changes in West Antarctica and the surrounding seas. Through comparing two data assimilation experiments that use the same terrestrial proxy records with annual and decadal temporal resolutions, we confirm that the covariance relationship between several key climate variables (surface air temperature (SAT), sea ice, and atmospheric circulation), used in the data assimilation is time scale dependent. Our experiments show that a data assimilation step of 10 years appears to be a good compromise. Additionally, we clarify the contributions of continental and marine records to the reconstructions through two separate data assimilation experiments: one using the continental proxies only and another using both continental and marine records. Our results suggest that the latter is more useful, providing a stronger and more direct constraint on the evolution of the ocean-atmosphere coupled system, and is more reliable, as suggested by the validation against independent sea ice-related marine records. Based on our reconstruction for multiple variables covering the past two millennia, we confirmed a widespread cooling trend occurred over West Antarctica and surrounding seas over the period 900–1800 CE. This reconciles the inconsistency between some existing reconstructions and climate model results, in particular over the Antarctic Peninsula. This cooling could be explained by a direct thermodynamic response to external forcing, with a dominant contribution of the volcanic forcing over the period. Our results thus highlight that West Antarctica and surrounding seas are sensitive to external forcings at this time scale and that the temperature evolution there is coherent with global changes at the centennial scale over the past millennium. • Assimilating marine records could better capture low-frequency climate variability. • Centennial-scale west Antarctic temperature change correlates well with global mean. • Cooling in West Antarctica over the last millennium is likelyassociated with volcanic forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An iterative dynamic initialization method is presented to produce balanced initial conditions for whole atmospheric global modeling. In this method, a global hydrostatic numerical model is iteratively nudged toward ground‐to‐space wind and temperature profiles at specific date and time. Ground‐to‐space atmospheric profiles are obtained by fitting spline curves to reanalyses below the lower mesosphere and empirical model results in the upper atmosphere. An optimal nudging coefficient is determined by examining if reasonable structure of mesospheric gravity wave (GW) momentum forcing and residual mean meridional circulations can be obtained from balanced initial conditions. Estimated mesospheric GW momentum forcing is found to exhibit a distinctive structure with larger (smaller) values in the lower and upper mesosphere (in the midmesosphere), when compared with parameterized climatological forcing. The iterative dynamic initialization allows for dynamical balance among the model's prognostic variables and reduces excitation of spurious GWs and noises at initial time. However, theoretical imbalances, measured by the ellipticity of the nonlinear balance equation, are not completely eliminated in balanced flows, and they are found in narrow tropospheric frontal regions and over localized areas associated with the large‐scale instability in the midlatitude middle atmosphere. These imbalances are discussed in the context of their potential relation to generation of planetary‐scale and inertia GWs around the middle atmospheric and tropospheric jets. Plain Language Summary: This study reports a method of initializing a whole‐atmosphere global model that covers from the ground to the lower thermosphere. Through this initialization, a whole atmospheric state balanced with the model dynamics is effectively generated. Free coefficient required for the initialization is chosen by estimating gravity wave momentum forcing and meridional mass circulations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. In the generated balanced flow, theoretical imbalances, measured by the ellipticity of the nonlinear balance equation, are found. These imbalances can be related to the spontaneous generation of gravity waves and balanced and unbalanced large‐scale instabilities in the middle atmosphere. The large‐scale instabilities can be attributed to generation of the planetary‐scale and inertia gravity waves in the middle atmosphere. Key Points: Iterative dynamic initialization for whole atmospheric global modeling is presentedGravity wave momentum forcing and mass circulations are estimated to constrain nudging coefficientDeviations from nonlinear balance may occur in association with large‐scale instabilities [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of snow-atmosphere coupling on climate variability and extremes over North America is investigated using modeling experiments with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this end, two CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 1981-2010 period are performed, where snow cover and depth are prescribed (uncoupled) in one simulation while they evolve interactively (coupled) during model integration in the second one. Results indicate systematic influence of snow cover and snow depth variability on the inter-annual variability of soil and air temperatures during winter and spring seasons. Inter-annual variability of air temperature is larger in the coupled simulation, with snow cover and depth variability accounting for 40-60% of winter temperature variability over the Mid-west, Northern Great Plains and over the Canadian Prairies. The contribution of snow variability reaches even more than 70% during spring and the regions of high snow-temperature coupling extend north of the boreal forests. The dominant process contributing to the snow-atmosphere coupling is the albedo effect in winter, while the hydrological effect controls the coupling in spring. Snow cover/depth variability at different locations is also found to affect extremes. For instance, variability of cold-spell characteristics is sensitive to snow cover/depth variation over the Mid-west and Northern Great Plains, whereas, warm-spell variability is sensitive to snow variation primarily in regions with climatologically extensive snow cover such as northeast Canada and the Rockies. Furthermore, snow-atmosphere interactions appear to have contributed to enhancing the number of cold spell days during the 2002 spring, which is the coldest recorded during the study period, by over 50%, over western North America. Additional results also provide useful information on the importance of the interactions of snow with large-scale mode of variability in modulating temperature extreme characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An application of the potential added value (PAV) concept suggested by Di Luca et al. (Clim Dyn 40:443-464, 2013a) is applied to ERA Interim driven runs of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. They are performed for the time period 1979-2013 for the EURO-CORDEX domain at horizontal grid resolutions $$0.11^{\circ }$$ , $$0.22^{\circ }$$ , and $$0.44^{\circ }$$ such that the higher resolved model grid fits into the next coarser grid. The concept of the potential added value is applied to annual, seasonal, and monthly means of the 2 m air temperature. Results show the highest potential added value at the run with the finest grid and generally increasing PAV with increasing resolution. The potential added value strongly depends on the season as well as the region of consideration. The gain of PAV is higher enhancing the resolution from $$0.44^{\circ }$$ to $$0.22^{\circ }$$ than from $$0.22^{\circ }$$ to $$0.11^{\circ }$$ . At grid aggregations to $$0.88^{\circ }$$ and $$1.76^{\circ }$$ the differences in PAV between the COSMO-CLM runs on the mentioned grid resolutions are maximal. They nearly vanish at aggregations to even coarser grids. In all cases the PAV is dominated by at least 80% by its stationary part. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In energetic equilibrium, the atmosphere's net radiative divergence ( [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In energetic equilibrium, the atmosphere's net radiative divergence ( [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The SL-AV atmospheric model version using hybrid vertical coordinates combies the advantages of sigma and isobaric coordinates. The formulation and discretization of model equations maintain the equivalency of the new model version to the basic sigma version in the special case, when hybrid coordinates coincide with sigma coordinates. The SL-AV model version with hybrid vertical coordinate is verified with medium-range weather forecasts. The decrease in the errors of predicted geopotential height and wind as compared to the sigma model version is demonstrated. The use of hybrid coordinates also leads to a certain increase in forecast skill scores for some meteorological parameters characterizing aviation significant weather. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A quasi-geostrophic three-level T63 model of the wintertime atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere has been applied to investigate the impact of Arctic amplification (increase in surface air temperatures and loss of Arctic sea ice during the last 15 years) on the mid-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation. The model demonstrates a mid-latitude response to an Arctic diabatic heating anomaly. A clear shift towards a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO−) during low sea-ice-cover conditions occurs, connected with weakening of mid-latitude westerlies over the Atlantic and colder winters over Northern Eurasia. Compared to reanalysis data, there is no clear model response with respect to the Pacific Ocean and North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Quality of a downscaling depends primarily on the quality of the driving global climate model ( GCM). In this study, historical atmospheric conditions simulated by 14 GCMs in CMIP5 are evaluated for downscaling applications centred over the Tibetan Plateau ( TP) with ERA-Interim reanalysis as reference. Another reanalysis NCEP-DOE is also used to estimate the uncertainty associated with the reanalyses. Performances of six frequently used GCM variables, involving atmospheric circulation, air temperature and humidity, are evaluated in terms of biases, spatial correlation coefficient, mean absolute error as well as distinct seasonal features. To detect distributional biases, the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test ( KS test) is applied to both the original time series and their anomalies on the monthly scale. A spatial ranking scheme is finally applied to objectively quantify overall relative merits of the GCMs over this region. We found that differences between two reanalysis datasets are negligible over this region. Regarding the GCMs' performances, the biases of the simulated variables show remarkable differences among models. Sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height are well simulated by all the GCMs, whereas specific humidity at 600 hPa has a significant dry bias and temperature at 500 hPa has a sizable cold bias. The spatial pattern of the upper-tropospheric circulation is relatively poorly simulated. The KS test suggests that the climatic mean and higher order moments play about an equal role in causing the errors. According to the ranking scores, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, MPI-ESM-LR, NorESM1-M, MIROC4h, MPI_ESM_MR and CSIRO-MK are relatively superior to other GCMs for this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the local and non-local climatic effects of wetter arid areas of Northwestern China (ANWC) in summer using a fully coupled climate model. In response to soil moisture increase, the local air temperature significantly decreases, and precipitation increases in summer. The wetter ANWC results in a warmer and rainless climate over the Central part of North China Plain (CNCP). While the influence of increasing soil moisture on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) precipitation is negligible due to the high altitude. A cooler climate over ANWC leads to an abnormal descending motion occurring. Meanwhile, an anomalous high pressure and an abnormal anticyclonic circulation occurs in 500 hPa over the west of ANWC. Correspondingly, a huge anomalous cyclone circulation occurs over the northeastern part of China and Mongolia, which can hinder the northward movement of the East Asian summer Monsoon (EASM) and reduce the water vapor transport into Central China Plain. As a result, the weakened EASM thus leads to rainless over CNCP. As soil moisture increases over ANWC is stronger, the magnitudes of the influence on the atmospheric field become larger. This study highlights the wetter ANWC effect on local climate and provides more information about the mechanism of wetter ANWC remote effect on non-local climate. • This paper examines the local and non-local climatic effects of wetter arid areas of Northwestern China (ANWC) in summer using a fully coupled climate model. • It finds that the wetter ANWC can result in a warmer and rainless climate over the Central part of North China Plain (CNCP) through a complex atmospheric circulation response. • A cooler climate leads to an abnormal descending motion occurring over ANWC. • A huge anomalous cyclone circulation over the northeastern part of China and Mongolia can block the East Asian summer Monsoon northward and decrease the water vapor transport into Central China Plain. • This study highlights the wetter ANWC effect on local climate and provides more information about the mechanism of wetter ANWC remote effect on non-local climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the impacts of high-resolution atmospheric forcing and ocean-atmosphere coupling on the estuary-shelf ocean simulation off the Pearl River Estuary. We conducted process and dynamics analyses of the wind-driven coastal ocean circulation under atmospheric flux forcing from (1) global reanalysis data, (2) a high-resolution regional atmospheric model, and (3) an air-sea coupled model during an upwelling-favorable wind. The results revealed that the high-resolution atmospheric model significantly improved the representations of the near-surface wind field and air temperature. The air-sea coupled model outperformed the uncoupled model in simulating coastal currents, water temperature, and salinity. The high-resolution uncoupled model strengthened the surface wind stress and along-isobath pressure gradient force (PGF), resulting in an intensified cross-isobath transport. The improved wind forcing from the air-sea coupled model modulated the spatial variation of the net stress curl and vorticity advection and enhanced the along-isobath PGF for a stronger cross-isobath transport. The lower sea surface temperature (SST) in the air-sea coupled model reduced the air temperature and wind stress. Adjusting the SST in the air-sea coupled model improved the momentum fluxes and the associated ocean transport dynamics. • The air-sea coupled model outperforms the uncoupled model in simulating coastal currents, water temperature, and salinity. • The air-sea coupling modulates the net stress curl and vorticity advection that enhances the cross-isobath transport. • Adjusting SST in air-sea coupling significantly improves the atmospheric momentum flux and the associated ocean transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reanalysis data provide a good estimate of global atmospheric temperature and wind fields. However, the available reanalysis datasets reveal nonnegligible discrepancies in their mean state and temporal variability. In this study, the quality of eight reanalysis datasets is evaluated by examining their dynamical consistency in the extratropical stratosphere. The dynamical consistency is quantified by computing the residual of the zonal-mean momentum equation. The residual is generally small in the lower stratosphere, especially at and below 30 hPa, but increases significantly aloft in both hemispheres poleward of 45°, where the effect of parameterized gravity wave drag becomes important. However, at most levels, a large difference in the residual is found among the datasets. This interdata difference is mainly caused by an uncertainty in the Coriolis torque. The non-quasigeostrophic terms, such as those associated with the vertical motion, also play a nonnegligible role when the polar vortex accelerates or decelerates. The latest reanalysis datasets exhibit smaller residuals than their earlier counterparts. For example, ERA-Interim is dynamically more consistent than ERA-40. This improvement over the generations is largely attributed to a better representation of the Coriolis torque. This is not likely achieved by the increase in satellite data observations over the past few decades. In fact, the dynamical consistency is only weakly sensitive to the analysis period. Instead, model-specific factors, such as data assimilation technique, model resolution, and physics, likely play a crucial role in improving the dynamical consistency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have suggested that, because of its particular location on the southeastern lee side of mountains, extreme heat (EH) over western north China (WNC) is affected by the foehn phenomenon. In this study, the EH days during summer over this region are categorized into foehn-favorable EH and no-foehn EH, according to whether there are anomalous northwesterlies over mountains, and composite analyses are performed on them. The analyzed results indicate that the no-foehn EH is characterized by an anticyclonic anomaly and a large-scale higher surface air temperature, while the foehn-favorable EH is featured by a cyclonic anomaly to the northeast and a localized higher temperature. Associated with the cyclonic anomaly, northwesterlies prevail over the mountain surface and provide a favorable environment for the occurrence of the foehn effect over WNC, which is located on the southeastern lee side of mountains. That is, both cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies can induce EH over WNC (i.e., foehn-favorable EH and no-foehn EH, respectively). Further investigation indicates that large-scale cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies tend to favor local descent and ascent anomalies over the lee side, respectively, through interaction with the particular terrain. Therefore, large-scale circulations and local terrain-induced winds play an offsetting role in affecting the surface air temperatures over WNC, and EH occurs when anomalous large-scale anticyclone or terrain-induced descent dominate. This study implies that attention should be paid to not only the upper-level/large-scale circulations but also to their impact on lower-level/local winds for temperature variability over the places with great topographic relief worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During austral summer, the majority of precipitation over the Pacific Ocean is concentrated in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The surface boundary conditions required to support the diagonally (northwest-southeast) oriented SPCZ are determined through a series of experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. Continental configuration and orography do not have a significant influence on SPCZ orientation and strength. The key necessary boundary condition is the zonally asymmetric component of the sea surface temperature (SST) distribution. This leads to a strong subtropical anticyclone over the southeast Pacific that, on its western flank, transports warm moist air from the equator into the SPCZ region. This moisture then intensifies (diagonal) bands of convection that are initiated by regions of ascent and reduced static stability ahead of the cyclonic vorticity in Rossby waves that are refracted toward the westerly duct over the equatorial Pacific. The climatological SPCZ is comprised of the superposition of these diagonal bands of convection. When the zonally asymmetric SST component is reduced or removed, the subtropical anticyclone and its associated moisture source is weakened. Despite the presence of Rossby waves, significant moist convection is no longer triggered; the SPCZ disappears. The diagonal SPCZ is robust to large changes (up to ±6 °C) in absolute SST (i.e. where the SST asymmetry is preserved). Extreme cooling (change <−6 °C) results in a weaker and more zonal SPCZ, due to decreasing atmospheric temperature, moisture content and convective available potential energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used a fully coupled chemistry-climate model (version 3 of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, WACCM3) to investigate the effect of methane (CH) emission increases, especially in East Asia and North America, on atmospheric temperature, circulation and ozone (O). We show that CH emission increases strengthen westerly winds in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, accelerate the Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation, and cause an increase in the mass flux across the tropopause. However, the BD circulation in the tropics between 10°S and 10°N at 100 hPa weakens as CH emissions increase in East Asia and strengthens when CH emissions increase in North America. When CH emissions are increased by 50% in East Asia and 15% globally, the stratospheric temperature cools by up to 0.15 K, and the stratospheric O increases by 45 ppbv and 60 ppbv, respectively. A 50% increase of CH emissions in North America (with an amplitude of stratospheric O increases by 60 ppbv) has a greater influence on the stratospheric O than the same CH emissions increase in East Asia. CH emission increases in East Asia and North America reduce the concentration of tropospheric hydroxyl radicals (4% and 2%, respectively) and increase the concentration of mid-tropospheric O3 (5% and 4%, respectively) in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. When CH emissions increase in East Asia, the increase in the tropospheric O concentration is largest in August. When CH emissions increase in North America, the increase in the O concentration is largest in July in the mid-troposphere, and in April in the upper troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new ring-width record from the eastern flanks of the Eastern Sakhalin Range, Sakhalin Island, Russian Federation is significantly correlated with summer temperatures and allows for the reconstruction of May-July average temperatures for the past 400 years. The reconstruction explains 37 % of the variance in May-July temperatures and shows a strong cooling between 1680 and 1710 CE coincident with the Maunder solar minimum and in agreement with other independent tree-ring reconstructions and glacier histories from sites along the margin of the Sea of Okhotsk. While recent decades are among the warmest in the record they are rivaled by periods centered on 1650 and 1850 CE. Warming in the observational record and the reconstruction is consistent with the influence of the declining strength of the Siberian High and loss of sea ice over the same interval. Decadal (17-25 year) variability persists throughout the reconstruction. At interannual timescales the Sakhalin reconstruction is most strongly correlated with local and central North Pacific sea surface temperatures over the past 120 years, whereas at decadal timescales there is an additional association with Asian land surface temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) in a global warming environment is a serious scientific and socio-economic concern since many recent studies have demonstrated the weakening nature of large-scale tropical circulation under anthropogenic forcing. But, how such processes affect the ASM circulation and rainfall is still a matter of debate. This study examines the climate model projections from a selected set of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models to provide a unified perspective on the future ASM response. The results indicate a robust reduction in the large-scale meridional gradient of temperature (MGT) at upper levels (200 hPa) over the ASM region, associated with enhanced ascendance and deep tropospheric heating over the equatorial Pacific in the future climate. The differential heating in the upper troposphere, with concomitant increase (decrease) in atmospheric stability (MGT), weakens the ASM circulation, promotes a northward shift of the monsoon circulation and a widening of the local Hadley cell in the eastern Indian sector. An examination of the water vapour budget indicates the competing effects of the thermodynamic (moisture convergence) and dynamics processes (monsoon circulation) on future ASM rainfall changes. The former component wins out over the later one and leads to the intensification of Indian monsoon rainfall in the CMIP5 projections. However, the diagnostics further show a considerable offset due to the dynamic component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An ensemble of future climate projections performed with the regional climate model RegCM4 is used to assess changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation over Southern Mexico and Central America (SMECAM). Two different Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 are used to provide boundary conditions for two different RegCM4 configurations. This results in four regional climate projections extending from 1970 to 2100 for the greenhouse gas representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. The precipitation variability over the SMECAM region and its dependence on the gradient between Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are verified by reproducing SST anomaly patterns during wettest and driest years similar to those seen in observational datasets. RegCM4 does a comparably better job than the driving GCMs. This strong relationship between precipitation and SST anomalies does not appear to change substantially under future climate conditions. For the rainy season, June to September, we find a future change in inter-annual variability of precipitation towards a much greater occurrence of very dry seasons over the SMECAM region, with this change being more pronounced in the regional than in the global model projections. A greater warming of the Tropical Northeastern Pacific (TNP) compared to the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), which causes stronger wind fluxes from the TNA to the TNP through the Caribbean Low Level Jet, is identified as the main process responsible for these drier conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The low level jetstream (LLJ) transports moisture from the surrounding Oceans to Indian land mass and hence an important component of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Widening of tropical belt and poleward shifts in mid-latitude jetstreams have been identified as major impacts of global warming on large-scale atmospheric dynamics. A general northward shift in ISM circulation has been suggested recently, based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) simulations. Here, we investigate the current and projected future changes in LLJ in observations as well as the coupled model (CMIP3/CMIP5) simulations. A poleward shift in the monsoon LLJ has been detected both in the observations and coupled model simulations. The poleward shift is also reflected in the future projections in a warming scenario, with the magnitude of shift depending on the degree of warming. Consistent with the LLJ shift, a drying (wet) trend in the southern (northern) part of the western coast of India is also observed in the last three decades. Further analysis reveals that enhanced land-sea contrast resulted in a strengthening of the cross-equatorial sea level pressure gradient over Indian Ocean, which in turn resulted in the northward shift of the zero absolute vorticity contour from its climatological position. The poleward shift in zero absolute vorticity contour is consistent with that of LLJ core (location of maximum low-level zonal winds). Possible uncertainties in the results are discussed in the context of known model biases and ensemble sample sizes. These results assume significance in the context of the concerns over ecologically fragile Western Ghats region in a warming scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations and results of numerical experiments with climate models under different green-house-gas emission scenarios point to a reconstruction of the thermal and circulation atmospheric regime induced by global climate changes. In particular, an increase in atmospheric static stability, a poleward shift of midlatitude storm tracks, a decrease in the frequency of extratropical cyclones, and a change in their intensity are found at tropical and middle latitudes. This paper, using a simplified idealized model of baroclinic instability, investigates the influence of small variations in the basic atmospheric parameters governing the development of baroclinic instability, namely, static stability and the vertical quasi-zonal flow velocity shear induced by a meridional temperature gradient, on variations in the growth rate of the amplitude of synopticscale unstable waves. Analytical expressions are derived for absolute and relative sensitivity functions to estimate the absolute and relative contribution of variations in the static stability and the vertical flow velocity shear to a change in the growth rate of the amplitude of unstable modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ~0.5-1 °C Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST, and SAT, this study investigates northeast (NE) Pacific coupled atmosphere-ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86). We show that SLP reductions and related atmospheric forcing led to century-long warming around the NE Pacific margins, with the strongest trends observed from 1910-1920 to 1940. NE Pacific circulation changes are estimated to account for more than 80% of the 1900-2012 linear warming in coastal NE Pacific SST and US Pacific northwest (Washington, Oregon, and northern California) SAT. An ensemble of climate model simulations run under the same historical radiative forcings fails to reproduce the observed regional circulation trends. These results suggest that natural internally generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012 and demonstrate more gen-erally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lakes play an important role in regulating the regional climate, especially the large one in the arid region. The Aral Sea located in Central Asia, was once the fourth largest lake in the world, but gradually shrunk and lost more than 80% of its surface. As the Ara Sea dries up in last 60 years, the role of Aral Sea in regulating the regional climate dampens. However, how the Aral Sea regulates the regional climate and its mechanisms remains less understand. The climatic effect of the Aral Sea on regional climate is quantified by comparing two ideal simulations, with the Aral Sea included or excluded, using ALARO-SURFEX regional climate model under 4-km horizontal resolution. The model's performance in reproducing the 2-m temperature, precipitation and surface energy fluxes was evaluated firstly. The Aral Sea decreases (increases) the 2-m temperature in spring-summer (autumn-winter) over the Aral Sea and ambient land, which causes higher (lower) sea level pressure in spring-summer (autumn-winter) corresponding to enhanced the divergence (convergence) in spring-summer (autumn-winter). The lake-effect penetrates to the atmosphere, cools (warms) the daytime air temperature by 2.03 °C (0.07 °C) below (above) the height of 1.4-km during May to September but warming the nighttime air temperature by 0.42 °C below 0.6-km, leads to enhancing descent (ascent) motion in daytime (nighttime), which suppress (trigger) development of local convection in daytime (nighttime). The presence of Aral Sea increases specific humidity below 0.8-km in both daytime and nighttime. As a result, the annual precipitation, especially convective precipitation is increased by 7.08 mm and mainly occurs in nighttime-morning and open water period, but reduced precipitation occurs in 13:00–17:00 and ice frozen period. The presence of Aral Sea substantially reduces the sensible heat, enhances the latent heat, increases ground heat fluxes, but these effects depend season and diurnal variation. The temperature change induced by the Aral Sea is most contributed by the change of latent heat (ground heat) in open water period (ice frozen period), in diurnal timescale, the ground heat contributes most in both daytime and nighttime temperature change. • The regional climate model, ALARO-SURFEX, shows a reliable performance in the Aral Sea region. • Due to the lake-land thermal contrast,climate effect of the Aral Sea remains seasonal and diurnal variation. • Climate effect of the Aral Sea depends on background atmospheric circulation, vegetation condition and topography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]