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There has been a change in international politics since the 2008 financial crisis, thanks to a greater spread of economic resources and military capabilities. For many, it is a radical transformation that could spell the end of US hegemony in Latin America. This paper examines the proposition, beginning with a review of the concept of hegemony, which rather than being viewed as a structural characteristic is conceived of here as a "nuanced hegemony", in other words a network of asymmetric and hierarchical relations. We can observe not just one transformation then, but the emergence of a hemispheric context that could be described as "differentiated hegemony". The United States still occupies a central position, but its foreign policy is marked by subregional fragmentation and the externalisation of electoral priorities. The paper explores the effects at subregional level, focusing on the opportunities and challenges it presents to Latin American countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impacts of economic (in)stability on carbon emissions and the role of renewable energy in these effects at the crossroads of accelerated climate change and rising global economic instability. The paper hypothesizes that these implications should be examined not by direct impacts across variables, but rather via indirect effects serially mediated by renewable energy consumption and economic growth. This paper analyzes the United States from January 1980 and April 2022 using manifest structural equation modeling. The paper reaches two major conclusions. First, there are clear distinctions between (i) the direct and indirect effects of economic stability, surrogated by inflation and policy interest rate, on carbon emissions, (ii) the symmetric and asymmetric indirect effects, and (iii) the roles of aggregate renewable energy and its components, such as biomass and hydropower energy use, in mediating these symmetric and asymmetric indirect effects. Second, renewable energy significantly reduces the carbon-increasing effects of inflation and interest rates. The paper contains proper policy suggestions based on the findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper was to investigate the intensity and the pattern of tail price risk spillovers in the US beef and pork industries. To this end, it estimates CoVaR functions for directly linked market pairs (farm–wholesale and wholesale–retail) along the relevant supply chains using quantile regressions. Over the total sample (1980–2020) and two sub‐samples (1980–1999 and 2000–2020), the beef industry appears to exhibit a higher degree of price risk connectedness relative to the pork industry. Positive and negative tail price events are transmitted between markets with the same intensity. However, tail price events (irrespective of sign) are likely to spillover with greater intensity backwards in the supply chain than forwards. This pattern of transmission may be a cause of concern about the efficiency of alternative meat marketing arrangements as risk‐sharing instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the symmetric and asymmetric effects of house price changes and a few other macroeconomic variables on durable and non-durable consumption separately. The study considers the nonlinear panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach (Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation (Pesaran, 1997; Pesaran et al., 1999)) for cointegration and error-correction modeling, and uses annual data from fifty states of the U.S. The results show that changes in house prices have asymmetric effects on both durable and non-durable consumption in the long run. To dig deeper into the relationship between house price and consumption, I divide the fifty U.S. states into three categories: high-, middle- and low-income states. This helps to examine how the responsiveness of durable and non-durable consumption varies across these three categories. The findings show that the low-income states are affected more by changes in house prices than that of the high- and middle-income states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing literature on the short- and long-run impacts of economic growth on income inequality indicates that positive and negative output shocks have worsened the income distribution in the United States. In this paper, we report our empirical examination of the opposite; that is, the impact of positive and negative income inequality shocks on the real output levels. Using the same time-series data, over the period 1917–2012, in a more comprehensive manner, by employing six measures of income distribution, we examined the impact of an increase/decrease in income inequality on economic growth, using the NARDL approach. The results provide evidence in support of a long-run asymmetric impact between income inequality and the real output levels, since the long-run coefficients of positive changes have positive signs, while the signs of those of negative changes are negative, indicating that a decrease or an increase in income inequality improves the real output level in the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the processes underlying economic fluctuations by investigating the volatility moderation of U.S. economy in the early 1980s. We decompose the volatility decline using a dynamic factor framework into a common stochastic trend, common transitory component and idiosyncratic components. We find that the moderation of business cycle was a result of the moderation in transitory and idiosyncratic components. Our results suggest that important part of stochastic process that drives economy is transitory. The paper investigates the role of oil prices, monetary and financial market factors. Proposed economic factors do not have a significant relationship to either transitory or permanent components. In addition, we find that transitory shocks are as common during the 1980s and 1990s as they were during the 1960s and 1970s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyze the asymmetric dilemma facing the Philippines and China in the South China Sea tensions. Among American East Asian allies, the Philippines seems to stand on the frontline between two rival powers, the United States and China. Since the US declared its Pivot to Asia policy, the Philippines' foreign policy towards China has become assertive and sometimes appears reckless with some military adventures against Chinese maritime patrols and naval ships, which also further forced China to take a tougher foreign policy against the Philippines. Considering the distinctive asymmetric indicators between China and the Philippines based on military forces, economic capacity, territorial size, and population, the aggressive policy behaviors that the Philippines and China have been displaying against each other cast an inquiry on what drives the two countries into head-to-head collision. While China as the larger power vis-à-vis the Philippines as the smaller power in the relationship has aimed for control and domination of their disputed territory, the Philippines' drastic defiance has also led to China's irritation and possible frustration. Furthermore, the US' renewed attention to Asia has caused shifts of asymmetric bilateral dilemma to triangular entanglement between the US-China-Philippines. It is vital therefore to pay attention to the asymmetric interaction of states and their varying views in order to find possible solutions to the SCS tensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Great Recession of 2008 in the U.S. was mostly attributed to the U.S. housing market bubble that came to an end in 2007. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the above conjecture by detecting the asymmetric causality between house prices and unemployment rate in each state of the U.S. We find that indeed, decreases in house prices cause unemployment in 39 states. There is evidence in only 19 states that an increase in house prices causes unemployment. Since an asymmetric analysis requires the use of nonlinear models, we use nonlinear models and find evidence of asymmetric cointegration between the two variables in all states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There exist rare researches about economic risk in sectoral level, which is significantly important for risk prewarning. This paper employed status coefficient to measure the symmetry of economic subnetwork, which is negatively correlated with sectoral risk. Then, we do empirical research in both cross section and time series dimensions. In cross section dimension, we study the correlation between sectoral status coefficient and sectoral volatility, earning rate and Sharpe ratio respectively in the year 2015. Next, in the perspective of time series, we first investigate the correlation change between sectoral status coefficient and annual total output from 1997 to 2015. Then, we divide the 71 sectors in America into agriculture, manufacturing, services and government, compare the trend terms of average sectoral status coefficients of the four industries and illustrate the causes behind it. We also find obvious abnormality in the sector of housing. At last, this paper puts forward some suggestions for the federal government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper traces the recent evolution of North American economic and security relations within the context of broader debates in international political economy (IPE) concerning globalization and its effects on the state in the international system. Borrowing from David Lake's discussion of hierarchical sovereignty, this paper argues that efforts to meld security to economics in an integrated North American market devoid of institutions have made sovereignty more hierarchical. It presents an approach to looking at North American integration, which can assist in understanding recent developments that are suggestive of new areas of research and policy development for both practitioners and theoreticians. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper tests the three leading specifications of asymmetric and possibly nonlinear feedback from the real price of oil to U.S. industrial production and its sectoral components. We show that the evidence for such feedback is sensitive to the estimation period. Support for a nonlinear model is strongest for samples starting before 1973. Instead, using post-1973 data only, the evidence against symmetry becomes considerably weaker. For example, at the aggregate level, there is no evidence against the hypothesis of symmetric responses to oil price innovations of typical magnitude, consistent with results of Kilian and Vigfusson [Quantitative Economics, 2(3), 419–453 (2011)] for U.S. real GDP. There is strong evidence of asymmetries at the disaggregate level, however, especially for industries that are energy-intensive in production (such as chemicals) or that produce goods that are energy-intensive in use (such as transportation equipment). Our analysis suggests that these asymmetries may be obscured in the aggregate data and highlights the importance of developing multisector models of the transmission of oil price shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper examines the impact of U.S. monetary policy surprises on securitized real estate markets in 18 countries. The policy surprises are measured by both the surprise changes to the target federal funds rate (the target factor) and surprises in the future direction of the Federal Reserve monetary policy (the path factor). The results show that most international securitized real estate markets have significantly positive responses to surprise decrease in current or future expected federal funds rates, though such responses vary greatly across countries. Also, while the U.S. securitized real estate market reacts mainly to the target factor, foreign securitized real estate markets react to the path factor. Furthermore, we find that the cross-country variation in the response to the target factor is correlated with the country's exchange rate regime and its degree of real economic and particularly financial integration, while the cross-country variation in the response to the path factor is mainly related to the country's degree of financial integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the dynamic linkages between the federal funds rate and the stock market during the 1970-2004 period using the VAR methodology. We detected a disconnection between Fed actions and market responses in the 1990s relative to the 1970s and 1980s. Upon further analyses, we observed asymmetric effects of monetary policy actions on the stock market and that such actions were more turbulent during bear markets than bull markets. Overall, our results appear to suggest that there was consistent dynamic relationship between the conduct of monetary policy and the corresponding behavior by the stock market during the last three decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to empirically determine whether feedback trading strategies result in stabilization or destabilization in the foreign exchange market and if such strategies are a distinctive characteristic of an emerging economy or they are a common element to both developed and emerging economies. These hypotheses are tested via the use of a feedback model augmented with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process for modeling the errors. The results suggest presence of both positive and negative feedback trading and asymmetric behavior in both types of economies. Irrespective of the nature of feedback trading, presence of asymmetric behavior implies that market traders rely on central banks to intervene so they can realize short-term profits. Finally, in cases of a positive first-order autoregressive parameter presence of the bandwagon effect is implied, whereby past currency movements are followed by expectations of currency movements in the same direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates regime switching in the response of U.S. output to a monetary policy action. We find substantial, statistically significant, time variation in this response that corresponds to "high response" and "low response" regimes. We then investigate whether the timing of the regime shifts are consistent with three particular manifestations of asymmetry by modeling the transition probabilities governing the switching process as functions of state variables. We find strong evidence that policy actions taken during recessions have larger effects than those taken during expansions. We find less evidence of asymmetry related to the direction or size of the policy action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper provides a comprehensive examination of asymmetry in US state-level business cycles. We consider two different types of asymmetry in the adjustment process of a stationary time series: deepness and steepness. The data used in the study are a comparable set of state-level coincident indexes (SCIs) developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Specifically, results from using the momentum-threshold autoregressive model provide evidence of asymmetry in the growth rate of 23 SCIs as well as the equivalent national coincident index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper comparatively analyzes processes of contemporary borderlands identity formation in the context of reinforced security and socio-economic integration in the cross-border regions of the Pacific Northwest and the Virgin Islands. Interviews and surveys of stakeholders reveal how narratives of belonging enable the articulation of a pluralist borderlands identity even in the context of re-aligned border security and socio-economic cross-border integration. The asymmetry in the relationships between the United States and its neighbors - Canada and the Virgin Islands - is as integral to security and integration as to expressions of borderlands identity. While notions of belonging in these cross-border regions remain in transition, expressions of localism are already creating a baseline for a pluralist version of transnational identity formation and culture. A tentative official movement beyond dominant notions of US security, as focused on its borders with Mexico and Canada, toward more flexible conceptualizations of perimeter security that have characterized the Virgin Islands, may also assist in the formation of such 'new regionalisms' and transnational borderlands identities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers a 19-month sample of 5-min returns for three euro exchange rates, and provides an analysis of the news impact effects associated with the unexpected component of a wide range of international macroeconomic announcements. Our findings reveal that US news relating to leading indicators causes the most pronounced reactions in euro exchange rate returns. The few statistically significant non-US announcements identified relate primarily to Eurozone labour costs and German business expectations. However, the unexpected elements of interest rate announcements are not significant determinants of euro exchange rate volatility, indicating that it is the announcements of interest rates that cause jumps in exchange rates, quite apart from any actual information surprise delivered by those announcements. The analysis also shows evidence of asymmetric responses of exchange rates to good and bad news, indicating that positive surprises in poor economic climates are strong influences on short-term returns. Furthermore, impact response coefficients and the contribution of news announcement effects on daily price variation are found to vary across the sample and to depend on three factors: the magnitude of news surprises; the underlying economic conditions conveyed by news announcements; business cycle turning points as represented by switches from bad news to good news (and vice versa). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the effects of the US business cycle on US stock market returns through an analysis of the equity risk premium. We propose a new methodology based on the SDF approach to asset pricing that allows us to uncover the different effects of aggregate demand and supply shocks. We find that negative shocks are more important that positive shocks, and that supply shocks have a much greater impact than demand shocks. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of post-war U.S. business cycles. We specify a time-series model for real GNP and consumption in which the two share a common stochastic trend and transitory component, and Markov-regime switching is used to model business cycle phases in these components. The timing of switches between business cycle phases is allowed to differ across the permanent and transitory components. We find strong evidence of a lead-lag relationship between the switches in the two components. Specifically, switches in the permanent component leads switches in the transitory component when entering recessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Ecological patents have been increasing steadily over time. This paper analyses trends and volatility in ecological patents in the USA from 1975 to 1997. Germany contributed more than 10% of the total US ecological patents, and is by far the strongest foreign performer. This paper estimates a set of novel regime-switching models to investigate the time-varying nature of the conditional mean, as well as the conditional variance of the patent ratio, namely the ratio of US ecological patents to total US patents, using monthly data from January 1975 to December 1997. The regime-switching LSTAR-GARCH model is found to be optimal for modelling the ecological patent ratio. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Previous studies that tried to assess the effects of an uncertainty measure on income distribution in the United States used volatility of income as a measure of uncertainty. We use the policy uncertainty index as our measure of uncertainty, which is said to be much more comprehensive than income volatility and assess its asymmetric impact on a measure of income inequality in each state of the United States We find much more significant results compared to previous studies. While we find short‐run asymmetric effects of policy uncertainty in 41 states, short‐run effects translate into the long‐run asymmetric effects in 25 states. Furthermore, we find that while in 20 states decreased policy uncertainty worsened income inequality in 14 states increased policy uncertainty improved it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditionally, air power has been used in accordance with two models: distance attack and ground support. However, conflicts and challenges in the post-Cold War era have put America's military forces in situations where those models are inadequate. Recent breakthroughs in communications, positioning and guidance technology have refined the accuracy of air power, leading to the emergence of a third “integrated” model of air power use. The “integrated” model combines the best elements of the distance attack and ground support models; this new model gives the American military a new asymmetrical advantage when combating adversaries around the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies that assessed the impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows assumed that the effects are symmetric, meaning that if an x% increase in volatility hurts trade flows by y%, an x% decreased in volatility, boosts trade flows by y%. The new direction in the literature is to engage in asymmetric analysis, since the rate at which trade flows respond to increased volatility could be different than the rate at which they response to declines. We do this by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the Australian dollar–U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility on the exports of 230 U.S. exporting industries to Australia and 129 Australian exporting industries to the United States. We find overwhelming support for short‐run and long‐run asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on both countries exports to each other. A few large industries that were not found to be affected by volatility symmetrically, they were found to be affected asymmetrically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the response of each of the 67 industries that trade between the United States and United Kingdom to the volatility of the real dollar–pound exchange rate. When we follow previous research and estimate a linear ARDL model for each industry, we find short‐run effects of volatility in 22 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom that last into the long run only in nine industries. As for the UK exports to the United States, we find short‐run effects in 18 industries that last into the long run in 15 industries. However, when we estimate a nonlinear model for each industry, we find short‐run effects of volatility on 41 US exporting industries and on 43 UK exporting industries, all in an asymmetric manner. Short‐run asymmetric effects lasted into long‐run asymmetric effects in 24 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom and in 33 UK exporting industries to the United States. While total trade shares of industries from the linear models were negligible, those of the industries from the nonlinear models were significant in size, in the tune of one‐third of the trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling and forecasting forests as carbon sinks require that we understand the primary factors affecting productivity. One factor thought to be positively related to stand productivity is the degree of asymmetry, or the slope of the relationship between tree size and biomass growth. Steeper slopes indicate disproportionate productivity of big trees relative to small trees. Theoretically, big trees outcompete smaller trees during favorable growth conditions because they maintain better access to light. For this reason, high productivity forests are expected to have asymmetric growth. However, empirical studies do not consistently support this expectation, and those that do are limited in spatial or temporal scope. Here, we analyze size-growth relationships from 1970 to 2011 across a diverse network of forest sites in the eastern United States (n = 16) to test whether asymmetry is consistently related to productivity. To investigate this relationship, we analyze asymmetry-productivity relationships between our 16 forests at non-overlapping annual, 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year sampling intervals and find that asymmetry is negatively related to productivity, but the strength depends on the specific interval considered. Within-site temporal variability in asymmetry and productivity are generally positively correlated over time, except at the 5-year remeasurement interval. Rather than confirming or failing to support a positive relationship between asymmetry and productivity, our findings suggest caution interpreting these metrics since the relationship varies across forest types and temporal scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role of net oil price increases in amplifying the transmission of oil price shocks. We quantify the conditional effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid-1970s, analyze its determinants, and show that the linear model fits the data better. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time-series studies that have tried to establish the long-run relationship between house prices and economic fundamentals have been criticized due to low power of their cointegration tests. On the other hand, those who have used panel data and panel tests to increase the power have found mixed results. Both groups have assumed that changes in the fundamentals have symmetric effects on house prices. In this article, we use nonlinear ARDL approach to cointegration and error-correction modelling and quarterly data from each of the states in the US to show that changes in the fundamentals have asymmetric effects on house prices, in the short run as well as in the long run. Cointegration between house prices and fundamentals is established in 30 states and in District of Columbia. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article examines asymmetric size- and sign-dependent effects of the output gap on the US quarterly inflation rate using data from the last half a century (1959Q2–2013Q1). Consistent with previous studies, it is found that the consumer price index is cointegrated with the unit labour cost and the price of oil. A short-run dynamic model is then estimated in which variations in the output gap are divided into three groups: large-positive; large-negative; and small-medium positive/negative. The results provide convincing evidence that only sufficiently large (positive or negative) variations of the output gap can significantly influence inflation. Put otherwise, relatively small to medium changes in the output gap exert no significant impact on inflation and if not separated, they can somewhat obscure the significant effects associated with large variations of the output gap. This study can lead to greater consensus on the inflation–output gap nexus. The findings remain robust despite the use of different measures of output gap and they are consistent with the modern doctrine but with a new caveat: inflation responds to both positive and negative changes in the output gap as long as such variations are of sizable magnitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine co-movements of nine Asian equity markets with both the US and Japan with special interest in distinguishing co-movements during periods of positive returns from those during periods of negative returns. A discrete asymmetric piecewise linear conditional mean returns specification is adopted to generate asymmetric co-movement parameters for periods of positive and negative returns. Conditional heteroskedasticity is modeled using GARCH and EGARCH specifications. Predicted conditional volatilities are used to generate alternative estimates of asymmetric and time-varying co-movement parameters. Conditional mean returns from asymmetric and symmetric conditional mean return models along with GARCH and EGARCH volatilities are used to generate estimates of asymmetric and symmetric conditional ( ex-ante) Sharpe ratios. Asian markets returns and volatilities show a clear tendency to move more with the US than with Japan; and their co-movements with negative US returns far exceed their co-movements with positive US returns, thereby suggesting that any diversification benefits into Asian equities are likely to manifest themselves more during periods of positive than negative US returns. Conditional asymmetric Sharpe ratios exceed conditional symmetric Sharpe ratios; however, and more importantly, performance-ranking differs depending on whether asymmetric versus symmetric conditional Sharpe ratios are used. Asymmetric conditional Sharpe ratios suggest that India (followed by Malaysia) offers the best return/risk tradeoff, with the least favorable market is South Korea (using GARCH) and Philippines (using EGARCH). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We suggest that an unexpected volatility shock is an important risk factor to induce the intertemporal relation, and the conflicting findings on the relation could be attributable to an omitting variable bias resulting from ignoring the effect of an unexpected volatility shock on the relation. With the effect of an unexpected volatility shock incorporated in estimation, we find a strong positive intertemporal relation for the US monthly excess returns for 1926:12–2008:12. We also find a significant link between the asymmetric mean-reversion and the intertemporal relation in that the quicker reversion of negative returns is attributed to the negative intertemporal relation under a prior negative return shock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our study investigates the market-wide herding behavior in the U.S. equity REIT market. Utilizing the quantile regression method, we find that herding is more likely to be present in the high quantiles of the REIT return dispersion. This implies that REIT investors tend to herd under turbulent market conditions. Our results also support the asymmetry of herding behaviors, that is, herding is more likely to occur and becomes stronger in declining markets than in rising markets. In addition, our findings show that the current financial crisis has caused a change in the circumstances under which herding can occur, as we find that during the current crisis REIT investors may not start to herd until the market becomes extremely turbulent whereas during the relatively normal period before the crisis, investors tend to herd when the market is moderately turbulent. Finally, we find that compared with the case of the 'pre-modern' era, REIT investors are more likely to herd in the 'modern' era, during which herding usually occurs when the market becomes tumultuous. This implies that the switch of REITs from passive externally managed entities into active self-managed ones has made the investors more responsive to market sentiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive relationship between the price of oil and one-quarter-ahead U.S. real GDP is nonlinear in that (a) oil price increases matter only to the extent that they exceed the maximum oil price in recent years, and that (b) oil price decreases do not matter at all. We examine, first, whether the evidence of in-sample predictability in support of this view extends to out-of-sample forecasts. Second, we discuss how to extend this forecasting approach to higher horizons. Third, we compare the resulting class of nonlinear models to alternative economically plausible nonlinear specifications and examine which aspect of the model is most useful for forecasting. We show that the asymmetry embodied in commonly used nonlinear transformations of the price of oil is not helpful for out-of-sample forecasting; more robust and often more accurate real GDP forecasts are obtained from symmetric nonlinear models based on the 3-year net oil price change. Finally, we quantify the extent to which the 2008 recession could have been forecast using the latter class of time-varying threshold models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is now a great deal of empirical evidence that business cycle fluctuations contain asymmetries. I focus on a theoretical model intended to capture the nonlinear behavior of aggregate output following a large negative shock. Nonlinearity introduced by Bayesian updating and an information externality produces an economy in which the response to large negative shocks is an increase in future output. The expansionary effect is produced by the negative shock imparting information about what not to do. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]