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The temporal and spectral evolution of gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows can be used to infer the density and density profile of the medium through which the shock is propagating. In long-duration (core-collapse) GRBs, the circumstellar medium (CSM) is expected to resemble a wind-blown bubble, with a termination shock, separating the stellar wind and the interstellar medium (ISM). A long standing problem is that flat density profiles, indicative of the ISM, are often found at lower radii than expected for a massive star progenitor. Furthermore, the presence of both wind-like environments at high radii and ISM-like environments at low radii remains a mystery. In this paper, we perform a ‘CSM population synthesis’ with long GRB progenitor stellar evolution models. Analytic results for the evolution of wind blown bubbles are adjusted through comparison with a grid of 2D hydrodynamical simulations. Predictions for the emission radii, ratio of ISM to wind-like environments, wind, and ISM densities are compared with the largest sample of afterglow derived parameters yet compiled, which we make available for the community. We find that high ISM densities of n ∼ 1000 cm−3 best reproduce observations. If long GRBs instead occur in typical ISM densities of n ∼ 1 cm−3, then the discrepancy between theory and observations is shown to persist at a population level. We discuss possible explanations for the origin of variety in long GRB afterglows, and for the overall trend of CSM modelling to over-predict the termination shock radius. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Astronomical Society., BPG and MN are supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 948381). DAK acknowledges support from Spanish National Research Project RTI2018-098104-J-I00 (GRBPhot). AJvM is supported by the ANR-19-CE31-0014GAMALO project. AJL has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-2007-2013) (Grant agreement No. 725246). ERS has been supported by STFC consolidated grant ST/P000495/1. PJG is supported by NRF SARChI Grant 111692. We gratefully acknowledge the use of GOTOHEAD, the computing cluster of the Gravitational-wave Optical Transient Observer (GOTO), as well as support from Joe Lyman and Krzysztof Ulaczyk., With funding from the Spanish government through the Severo Ochoa Centre of Excellence accreditation SEV-2017-0709.

We present late-time radio/millimeter (as well as optical/UV and X-ray) detections of the tidal disruption event (TDE) AT2018hyz, spanning $970 - 1300$ d after optical discovery. In conjunction with earlier deeper limits, including at $\approx 700$ d, our observations reveal rapidly rising emission at $0.8-240$ GHz, steeper than $F_\nu\propto t^5$ relative to the time of optical discovery. Such a steep rise cannot be explained in any reasonable scenario of an outflow launched at the time of disruption (e.g., off-axis jet, sudden increase in the ambient density), and instead points to a delayed launch. Our multi-frequency data allow us to directly determine the radius and energy of the radio-emitting outflow, showing that it was launched $\approx 750$ d after optical discovery. The outflow velocity is mildly relativistic, with $\beta\approx 0.25$ and $\approx 0.6$ for a spherical and a $10^\circ$ jet geometry, respectively, and the minimum kinetic energy is $E_K\approx 5.8\times 10^{49}$ and $\approx 6.3\times 10^{49}$ erg, respectively. This is the first definitive evidence for the production of a delayed mildly-relativistic outflow in a TDE; a comparison to the recently-published radio light curve of ASASSN-15oi suggests that the final re-brightening observed in that event (at a single frequency and time) may be due to a similar outflow with a comparable velocity and energy. Finally, we note that the energy and velocity of the delayed outflow in AT2018hyz are intermediate between those of past non-relativistic TDEs (e.g., ASASSN-14li, AT2019dsg) and the relativistic TDE Sw\,J1644+57. We suggest that such delayed outflows may be common in TDEs., Comment: Submitted to ApJ

The next generation of wide-field cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys are uniquely poised to open a new window for time-domain astronomy in the millimeter band. Here we explore the discovery phase space for extragalactic transients with near-term and future CMB experiments to characterize the expected population. We use existing millimeter-band light curves of known transients (gamma-ray bursts, tidal disruption events, fast blue optical transients, neutron star mergers) and theoretical models, in conjunction with known and estimated volumetric rates. Using Monte Carlo simulations of various CMB survey designs (area, cadence, depth, duration) we estimate the detection rates and the resulting light curve characteristics. We find that existing and near-term surveys will find tens to hundreds of long-duration gamma-ray bursts (LGRBs), driven primarily by detections of the reverse shock emission, and including off-axis LGRBs. Next-generation experiments (CMB-S4, CMB-HD) will find tens of fast blue optical transients (FBOTs) in the nearby universe and will detect a few tidal disruption events. CMB-HD will additionally detect a small number of short gamma-ray bursts, where these will be discovered within the detection volume of next generation gravitational wave experiments like Cosmic Explorer., 24 pages, 6 figures; accepted to ApJ

For the first $\sim3$ years after the binary neutron star merger event GW 170817 the radio and X-ray radiation has been dominated by emission from a structured relativistic off-axis jet propagating into a low-density medium with n $< 0.01\,\rm{cm^{-3}}$. We report on observational evidence for an excess of X-ray emission at $\delta t>900$ days after the merger. With $L_x\approx5\times 10^{38}\,\rm{erg\,s^{-1}}$ at 1234 days, the recently detected X-ray emission represents a $\ge 3.2\,\sigma$ (Gaussian equivalent) deviation from the universal post jet-break model that best fits the multi-wavelength afterglow at earlier times. In the context of JetFit afterglow models, current data represent a departure with statistical significance $\ge 3.1\,\sigma$, depending on the fireball collimation, with the most realistic models showing excesses at the level of $\ge 3.7\,\sigma$. A lack of detectable 3 GHz radio emission suggests a harder broad-band spectrum than the jet afterglow. These properties are consistent with the emergence of a new emission component such as synchrotron radiation from a mildly relativistic shock generated by the expanding merger ejecta, i.e. a kilonova afterglow. In this context, we present a set of ab-initio numerical-relativity BNS merger simulations that show that an X-ray excess supports the presence of a high-velocity tail in the merger ejecta, and argues against the prompt collapse of the merger remnant into a black hole. Radiation from accretion processes on the compact-object remnant represents a viable alternative. Neither a kilonova afterglow nor accretion-powered emission have been observed before, as detections of BNS mergers at this phase of evolution are unprecedented., Comment: 30 pages, 13 figures, Accepted for publication in ApJL