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We use agent-based computer simulation to test the effect of environmental conditions (available biomass/carrying capacity and environmental risk) on the development of wealth inequality and patron-client herding networks in nomadic pastoral economies. Our results show that 1) wealth inequality reaches very high levels when carrying capacity is high and risk is low, and 2) patron-client contract herding networks increase in size and duration when carrying capacity is high and risk is low. We compare empirical data from the Mongol (1206–1368 CE) and Xiongnu (209 BCE– 48 CE) empires with simulation results to develop an explanatory mechanism for the apparent correlation between nomadic empire creation and positive environmental conditions. We argue that the internal dynamics of nomadic pastoral societies are sufficient to produce high degrees of inequality and hierarchical herding networks. Nomadic empires are more likely to form during key periods of increased biomass and decreased environmental risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Patients with mental health disorders often have to endure the burdens of the condition itself and the stigma that follows. Since no study has been conducted in Lebanon on this topic, our objective was to assess the knowledge, attitude and behaviors towards public stigma of mental health diseases, among a sample of the Lebanese population. Methods: A cross-sectional study, conducted between November 2017 and May 2018, enrolled 2289 participants. The Mental Health Knowledge Schedule (MAKS), the Community Attitudes toward Mental Illness (CAMI) and the Reported and Intended Behavior Scale (RIBS) were used to assess knowledge, attitude and behaviors toward mental illness respectively. The 25th, 50th and 75th percentile of the MAKS, CAMI and RIBS scales scores were considered as cutoff points for low, medium and high scores respectively. Results: A high knowledge score was found in 33.0% of the participants, whereas a high attitude score and a higher behavior score were found in 32.2% and 26.9% of the participants respectively. Living in North Lebanon (Beta = 1.331) and being familiar with a non-close person with mental illness (Beta = 0.811) were associated with higher knowledge of mental illness (higher MAKS score), whereas living in Bekaa (Beta = -8.693) and being 70 years old and above (Beta = -5.060) were associated with lower knowledge toward mental illness (lower MAKS score). Higher knowledge of mental illness (higher MAKS score) (Beta = 0.670), having a high level of education (university (Beta = 8.785), secondary (Beta = 6.084) and technical (Beta = 5.677)) were associated with less stigmatizing attitudes (higher CAMI scale). Being familiar with close people with mental illness (Beta = 0.577), less stigmatizing attitudes (higher CAMI scale) (Beta = 0.077) and higher knowledge of mental illness (higher MAKS score) (Beta = 0.115) were associated with higher favorable behaviors (higher RIBS score), whereas knowing a non-close person who have a mental illness (Beta = -0.720) was associated with lower favorable behaviors (lower RIBS score). Conclusion: A mass media awareness campaigns that could transmit health messages to a wide public audience in the country to fight stigma toward mental illness, seems warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To balance the supply and demand in China's beef market, beef consumption must be scientifically and effectively forecasted. Beef consumption is affected by many factors and is characterized by gray uncertainty. Therefore, gray theory can be used to forecast the beef consumption, In this paper, the structural defects and unreasonable parameter design of the traditional gray model are analyzed. Then, a new gray model termed, EGM(1,1,r), is built, and the modeling conditions and error checking methods of EGM(1,1,r) are studied. Then, EGM(1,1,r) is used to simulate and forecast China’s beef consumption. The results show that both the simulation and prediction precisions of the new model are better than those of other gray models. Finally, the new model is used to forecast China’s beef consumption for the period from 2019–2025. The findings will serve as an important reference for the Chinese government in formulating policies to ensure the balance between the supply and demand for Chinese beef. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study in-group favouritism and out-group discrimination in a multiplayer dictator game in a naturally occuring group setting. An allocator divides a large sum of money among three groups of around 20 recipients each and also to themselves. The groups are supporters of two rival political movements in Thailand and politically neutral subjects. The non-rival out-group acts as a reference point and allows us to measure in-group favouritism and out-group discrimination. A treatment with artificial groups serves as a control. We find both in-group favouritism and out-group discrimination among the naturally occurring groups. In artificial groups, favouritism is observed, but not discrimination. Our results suggest that the two behaviours are not driven by the same motive, and only when groups are in conflict that out-group discrimination is likely to occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although trachoma causes more cases of preventable blindness than any other infectious disease, a combination of strategies is reducing its global prevalence. As a district moves toward eliminating trachoma as a public health problem, national programs conduct trachoma impact surveys (TIS) to assess whether to stop preventative interventions and trachoma surveillance surveys (TSS) to determine whether the prevalence of active trachoma has rebounded after interventions have halted. In some contexts, programs also conduct trachomatous trichiasis (TT)-only surveys. A few costing studies of trachoma prevalence surveys exist, but none examine TIS, TSS, or TT-only surveys. Methodology/Principal findings: We assessed the incremental financial cost to the national program of TIS, TSS, and TT-only surveys, which are standardized cluster-sampled prevalence surveys. We conducted a retrospective review of expenditures and grant disbursements for TIS and TSS in 322 evaluation units in 11 countries between 2011 and 2018. We also assessed the costs of three pilot and five standard TT-only surveys in four countries between 2017 and 2018. The median cost of TIS and TSS was $8,298 per evaluation unit [interquartile range (IQR): $6,532–$10,111, 2017 USD]. Based on a linear regression with bootstrapped confidence intervals, after controlling for country, costs per survey did not change significantly over time but did decline by $83 per survey implemented in a single round (95% CI: -$108 –-$63). Of total costs, 80% went to survey fieldwork; of that, 58% went towards per diems and 38% towards travel. TT-only surveys cost a median of $9,707 (IQR: $8,537–$11,635); within a given country, they cost slightly more (106% [IQR: 94%–136%]) than TIS and TSS. Conclusions/Significance: The World Health Organization requires trachoma prevalence estimates for validating the elimination of trachoma as a public health problem. This study will help programs improve their planning as they assemble resources for that effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several clinical trials reported that clopidogrel was superior to aspirin in secondary stroke prevention by reducing the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We aimed to compare the efficacy of clopidogrel with aspirin in reducing one-year risk of MACE based on real-world evidence from Taiwan Health Insurance Database. Methods: We identified ischemic stroke patients between 2000 and 2012 who took aspirin or clopidogrel within 7 days of stroke onset for 1-year follow-up. The primary outcome was one-year MACE including recurrent stroke, acute myocardial infarction, and death. Propensity score matching and conditional Cox proportional hazards regression were conducted to control the confounding factors. Results: From 9,089 ischemic stroke patients, we found 654 patients on aspirin and 465 patients on clopidogrel who met the selective inclusion criteria. After propensity score matching, 379 patients were selected from each group. The clopidogrel group had a 1.78-fold MACE risk compared with the aspirin group at one-year follow-up (95% CI = 1.41–2.26, p<0.01). The MACE-free rate in the aspirin group was 15.74% higher than in the clopidogrel group at one-year follow-up. Sub-analysis of the three components of MACE showed that clopidogrel conferred higher risk of recurrent stroke (OR 1.43, 95% CI = 1.06–1.92, p 0.02) and acute myocardial infarction (OR 3.72, 95% CI = 1.04–13.3, p 0.04), but no different risk of death than that of aspirin. Conclusions: Among first-ever ischemic stroke patients, secondary stroke prevention using clopidogrel was associated with higher rates of MACE than aspirin. Aspirin might have better efficacy in secondary stroke prevention and was associated with lower risk of MACE. The real-world evidence raises the need to re-assess the current therapeutic options in secondary stroke prevention applying aspirin vs. clopidogrel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has shown Major League Baseball (MLB) players that bat left-handed and throw right-handed, otherwise known as sinister right-handers, are more likely to have a career batting average (BA) of .299 or higher compared to players with other combinations of batting and throwing handedness. Moreover, possibly owing to early exposure to hockey, Canadian-born MLB players have an increased propensity to be sinister right-handers, however, it has yet to be determined whether this provides a relative offensive performance advantage compared to players born in other countries. Using the largest archival dataset of MLB statistics available, the present study examined the independent influence of batting (i.e., left, right, switch) and throwing (i.e., left, right) handedness combinations and country/region of origin (i.e., Canada, USA, Latin America, Asia, Other) on several indices of offensive performance including BA, slugging percentage (SLG), on-base plus slugging (OPS), on-base plus slugging plus (OPS+), home runs (HR), runs batted in (RBI), strikeouts (SO) and wins above replacement (WAR). Mediation models were also computed to examine whether birthplace influences offensive performance through handedness. Examination of all recorded MLB batters revealed that batting left, regardless of throwing handedness, confers an offensive performance advantage. Since the inception of the MLB, the relative proportion of Canadian-born sinister right-handers is at least two times greater than players from other regions, although being Canadian-born does not provide a direct offensive advantage. Rather, results showed evidence of a significant indirect effect in that being Canadian-born increases the odds of being a sinister right-hander and in turn leads to greater performance across each offensive performance statistic. Collectively, findings provide further support for the hockey influence on batting hypothesis and suggest this effect extends to offensive performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the evaluation of infectious-diseases interventions, the transmissible nature of such diseases plays a central role. Agent-based models (ABM) allow for dynamic transmission modeling but publications are limited. We aim to provide an overview of important characteristics of ABM for decision-analytic modeling of infectious diseases. A case study of dengue epidemics illustrates model characteristics, conceptualization, calibration and model analysis. First, major characteristics of ABM are outlined and discussed based on ISPOR and ISPOR-SMDM Good Practice guidelines. Second, in our case study, we modeled a dengue outbreak in Cebu City (Philippines) to assess the impact interventions to control the relative growth of the mosquito population. Model outcomes include prevalence and incidence of infected persons. The modular ABM simulates persons and mosquitoes over an annual time horizon considering daily time steps. The model was calibrated and validated. ABM is a dynamic, individual-level modeling approach that is capable to reproduce direct and indirect effects of interventions for infectious diseases. The ability to replicate emerging behavior and to include human behavior or the behavior of other agents is a distinguishing modeling characteristic (e.g., compared to Markov models). Modeling behavior may, however, require extensive calibration and validation. The analyzed hypothetical effectiveness of dengue interventions showed that a reduced human-mosquito ratio of 1:2.5 during rainy seasons leads already to a substantial decrease of infected persons. ABM can support decision-analyses for infectious diseases including disease dynamics, emerging behavior, and providing a high level of reusability due to modularity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China relaxed its family planning policy and adopted a universal two-child policy on January 1, 2016 to actively address the country’s aging trend. However, the policy has failed to have any significant effect on the fertility rate of many provinces. In light of the country having the highest sex ratio at birth in the world and the huge burden of the aging population, improving the fertility rate is an urgent priority in China. This facility-based cross-sectional survey aimed to study determinants of fertility decision-making among couples based on the Theory of Planned Behavior. The study was conducted in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. A structured self-administered questionnaire was completed by 1,399 couples, consisting of wives aged 20–49 years and their husbands. Based on the structural equation modeling method of analysis, determinants of fertility decision-making were perceived behavior control (perceived importance of having a stable income and cost of raising a child), subjective norms (perceived social pressure about “sex preference of the newborn by themselves and their partner”) and attitudes (only healthy parents can have a child). Other significant factors influencing fertility decision were ethnicity and education level, with ethnic minority couples having less perception of social norm towards fertility and those with higher education having higher perceived control toward having a (further) child. The study reveals the importance of the China’s infrastructure and public facilities to support child-rearing to increase the fertility rate among couples of child-bearing age, which in turn will reduce the burden associated with an aging society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Demographic and Health Surveys, widely used for estimation of fertility and reproductive health indicators in developing countries, remain underutilized for the study of pregnancy termination. This is partly due to most surveys not reporting the type of pregnancy termination, whether spontaneous or induced. Reproductive calendar data makes it possible to examine termination patterns according to contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy. Contraceptive failure is expected to increase the likelihood of induced abortion helping in the interpretation of reported termination patterns. Materials and methods: We use individual-level calendar data regarding 623,966 pregnancies to analyze levels and differentials in reported patterns of pregnancy termination by age, union status, and contraceptive use in 107 DHS surveys from 50 countries. From the estimates of the probability of pregnancy termination, we compute derived reproductive health indicators providing an assessment of what is driving the differences by comparison to the few surveys reporting the type of pregnancy termination. Results: From our estimates, 10.9% of pregnancies do not end in live-birth and 63.7% of them are spontaneous terminations. Reported pregnancy termination is higher among women using contraceptives, consistent with expectations. Very low levels of reported PT in some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, suggests possible underreporting. Differential patterns emerging from cluster analysis and regional rates indicate high rates of pregnancy termination driven by induced abortion in countries from the Former Soviet Union and Asian countries with liberal laws. Most countries with restrictive abortion laws have low levels of reported termination. While the probabilities of pregnancy termination are higher at older ages, termination rates generally peak at younger ages due to higher conception rates. Discussion: This is the first large comparative study of the patterns of reported pregnancy termination in DHS surveys. While we have explored the extent to which differences arise from spontaneous terminations or induced abortion, more research is needed regarding the determinants of reported pregnancy termination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Culture influences personal health habits and behavior, and healthcare personnel possess different views of cultural perspectives. Currently, an appropriate instrument to assess cultural competence in clinical practice is limited. The present study aimed to develop and examine the psychometric properties of the Nursing Cultural Competence Scale (NCCS) for clinical nurses. Methods: Developing and assessing the scale was carried out in two phases: Phase I involved a qualitative research to explore the themes of nurses’ cultural competence and instrument development; Phase II established construct validity of the scale using a sample of 246 nurses in Taiwan. Data from the questionnaire were analyzed using exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency and test-retest reliability. Analysis results were used to determine the reliability and validity of the developed scale. Results: The results showed four factors including cultural awareness ability, cultural action ability, cultural resources application ability, and self-learning cultural ability were generated by exploratory factor analysis, and these factors explained 62.0% of total variance. Cronbach’s α of the Nursing Cultural Competence Scale was .88, and test-retest reliability correlation was .70. Conclusions: The establishment of the tool will facilitate accurate monitoring of the cultural competence among nurses and nursing managers, which can inform the construction of nursing policies aimed at pledge cultural competence expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the airline industry has become ever-more competitive and profitability more tenuous, airline service quality management has grown more important to airlines. Although many studies have focused on the evaluation of airline service quality, some common limitations need to be noted. First, traditional fuzzy logics were utilized to present linguistic variables as fuzzy numbers. However, precise quantification of lower and upper bounds with a single number is often difficult; thus, interval-valued fuzzy sets that represent the lower and upper bounds in the fuzzy number as an interval form should be applied instead. Second, while some studies have applied various multiple-criteria decision-making method [MCDM] and the service quality (SERVQUAL) method for evaluation of airline service quality, few have utilized grey relational analysis (GRA, a simple and data-driven MCDM method applicable to environments with incomplete information) and the service performance (SERVPERF), a performance-based measure that can resolve the ambiguity issue of the expectations construct in SERVQUAL. Third, extant studies dealing with the issue of weighting criteria in the evaluation of airline service quality have focused only on either subjective or objective weights, though weighting criteria based on a combined objective/subjective approach would be much better than those just considering the subjective approach. The present study endeavored to fill these literature gaps by developing, for evaluation of airline service quality, interval-valued fuzzy GRA with SERVPERF based on both subjective and objective weights. It contributes to the field by incorporating the 22 criteria from SERVPERF to effectively account for the various characteristics of airline service. Additionally, it is the first study to utilize interval-valued fuzzy GRA together with a novel technique that combines a subjective/objective weighting method for integration of objective decision-matrix-derived information with subjective decision-maker preferences. The supplemental empirical case study of airline service evaluation, further, provides researchers and practitioners with a means of better understanding the proposed approach in the practical perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Targeted environmental and ecosystem management remain crucial in control of dengue. However, providing detailed environmental information on a large scale to effectively target dengue control efforts remains a challenge. An important piece of such information is the extent of the presence of potential dengue vector breeding sites, which consist primarily of open containers such as ceramic jars, buckets, old tires, and flowerpots. In this paper we present the design and implementation of a pipeline to detect outdoor open containers which constitute potential dengue vector breeding sites from geotagged images and to create highly detailed container density maps at unprecedented scale. We implement the approach using Google Street View images which have the advantage of broad coverage and of often being two to three years old which allows correlation analyses of container counts against historical data from manual surveys. Containers comprising eight of the most common breeding sites are detected in the images using convolutional neural network transfer learning. Over a test set of images the object recognition algorithm has an accuracy of 0.91 in terms of F-score. Container density counts are generated and displayed on a decision support dashboard. Analyses of the approach are carried out over three provinces in Thailand. The container counts obtained agree well with container counts from available manual surveys. Multi-variate linear regression relating densities of the eight container types to larval survey data shows good prediction of larval index values with an R-squared of 0.674. To delineate conditions under which the container density counts are indicative of larval counts, a number of factors affecting correlation with larval survey data are analyzed. We conclude that creation of container density maps from geotagged images is a promising approach to providing detailed risk maps at large scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cesarean section (CS) is associated with maternal morbidity and mortality in developing countries. This study is conducted to assess factors associated with CS in Pakistan using partial least squares (PLS) algorithm, where categorical factors are modeled. Nationally representative maternal data from Pakistan Demographic and Health Surveys (PDHS) conducted during 2012-2013 is used in this study. Among correlation coefficient based PLS regression proposed algorithms for categorical factors, Pearson’s Contingency Coefficient (CC) PLS coupled with loading weight (LW) appeared to be the most efficient method in terms of model performance and influential factor selection. Region of residence, type of place of residence, mother’s and her partner’s level of education, wealth index, year of birth, previous terminated pregnancy, use of contraception, prenatal care provided by a doctor and nurse/midwife/LHV (lady health visitor), assistance provided by a nurse/midwife/LHV,number of antenatal visits, size of child, antenatal care provided by government hospital, transport facility for medical care, baby birth status, mother’s age at first birth, preceding birth interval and vaccination of hepatitis B-1 and B2 are found to be significantly affecting the CS delivery method. Correlation coefficient based PLS regression algorithms may serve more efficiently as a multivariate technique to treat high-dimensional categorical data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bosten Lake is an important region of Northwest China that has transformed from a freshwater lake to a saltwater lake since the 1970s. The water quality in the Bosten Lake basin is important for social and economic development, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are the key indicators of water quality. The land use data, precipitation data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model were used to simulate the N and P exports of the Bosten Lake basin. The spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus exports, and the response of nitrogen and phosphorus exports to land use change and precipitation change were analyzed between 2000 and 2015. The results show that the amount of N and P exports increased during 2000–2015, and the N and P exports are mainly distributed around Bosten Lake. The N and P exports are greatly affected by cultivated land, built-up areas and grassland, while they are less affected by other land use types. The high precipitation areas with small exports of N and P are mainly distributed in mountain areas, while small precipitation areas with large exports of N and P are distributed in plains where the cultivated land and built-up areas are concentrated. The InVEST model can be used in Northwest China, and the statistical downscaling of reanalysis precipitation data can be used in the InVEST model to improve the simulation accuracy in the data scarce regions of Northwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen tremendous advances in the scientific study of networks, as more and larger data sets of relationships among nodes have become available in many different fields. This has led to pathbreaking discoveries of near-universal network behavior over time, including the principle of preferential attachment and the emergence of scaling in complex networks. Missing from the set of network analysis methods to date is a measure that describes for each node how its relationship (or links) with other nodes changes from one period to the next. Conventional measures of network change for the most part show how the degrees of a node change; these are scalar comparisons. Our contribution is to use, for the first time, the cosine similarity to capture not just the change in degrees of a node but its relationship to other nodes. These are vector (or matrix)-based comparisons, rather than scalar, and we refer to them as “rewiring” coefficients. We apply this measure to three different networks over time to show the differences in the two types of measures. In general, bigger increases in our rewiring measure are associated with larger increases in network density, but this is not always the case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: In Taiwan, light motorcycles (LMCs) with cylinder capacities between 50 and 250 cc are widely used for daily commute. These vehicles are operated in a mixed traffic environment and prohibited on highways. In light of increasing motorcycle casualties, we conducted a multicentre study to analyse rider factors affecting injury severity. Methods: Riders hospitalised upon LMC crashes were contacted. Information on demographics, comorbidities, and riding behaviours was collected through questionnaires and linked to hospital data. The injury severity score (ISS) and length of hospitalisation (LOH) were used as injury severity measures. Results: In total, 725 patients (mean age: 37.7 years; 64% men) completed their questionnaires. Multivariate analysis results showed that age ≥ 65 years, half-face helmets, protective clothing, collisions with a bus/truck or car, and fatigue riding were risk factors for having an ISS of ≥9. Age ≥ 65 years; motorcycle crashes ≥2 times in the previous year; anaemia; rural crashes; half-face helmets; protective boots; collisions with a bus/truck, car, or a stationary object; alcohol/stimulating refreshment consumption; and fatigue riding were risk factors for increased LOH. A protective factor was individuals working in commerce. Collisions with opening car doors caused low risks of having an ISS of ≥9 and a short LOH. Conclusion: Certain factors were significantly associated with riders’ injury severity and related medical resource consumption. Because of differences in the power output, use, and riding environment, risk factors for severe injuries in LMC crashes are dissimilar from those for heavy motorcycles (cylinder capacities > 250 cc) in developed countries and deserve more attention for injury prevention. Further in-depth evaluation of significant factors based on this study’s results can yield valuable information to reduce severe injuries after LMC crashes in countries and areas with a high dependency on motorcycles, even considering the popularity of electric motorcycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Thorough understanding of developmental changes of human facial shape is lacking. The present study aimed to evaluate developmental shape changes of facial morphology based on a prospective, population-representative, Chinese cohort in Hong Kong. Methods: A population-representative sample of Chinese in Hong Kong was followed. Serial facial images of over 260 participants were obtained at age 12, 15, and 18 years. Facial landmarks were digitized and the corresponding coordinates were submitted for Generalized Procrustes Analysis. The resultant Procrustes shape coordinates, which captured shape information encoded by the facial landmarks, were then used for statistical shape analyses. Results: Small but significant developmental changes in mean facial shape were observed (p < 0.0001 for all pairwise comparisons). Significant age-related changes in the magnitude of variance of facial shape were also observed (p < 0.05). Phenotypic growth trajectories representing developmental shape changes were similar in size (p > 0.05) between sexes but differed in direction (p < 0.05) in shape space and trajectory shape (p < 0.05). The magnitude of shape differences between sexes remained constant from 12 to 18 years. Results of frontal facial shape analyses after removing the effect of allometry were similar to results obtained before removal of allometry. For lateral facial configurations, allometric trajectories among the age-by-sex groups were similar in slope (p > 0.05) but varied in directions in the multidimensional shape space. Conclusions: Our findings suggested significant age-related changes in facial shape and provided a dynamic view of developmental changes in sexual dimorphism of facial shape. Allometry contributed minimally to developmental changes in frontal facial shape. In addition, the allometric trajectories for lateral facial configurations were similar in rate of shape change but differed in their directions in shape space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of the shared prosperity goal by the World Bank in 2013 and Sustainable Development Goal 10, on inequality, by the United Nations in 2015 should strengthen the focus of development interventions and cooperation on the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. This paper contributes to the incipient literature on within-country allocations of development institutions and assesses the geographic targeting of World Bank projects to the bottom 40 percent. Bivariate correlations between the allocation of project funding approved over 2005–14 and the geographical distribution of the bottom 40 as measured by survey income or consumption data are complemented by regressions with population and other potential factors affecting the within-country allocations as controls. The correlation analysis shows that, of the 58 countries in the sample, 41 exhibit a positive correlation between the shares of the bottom 40 and World Bank funding, and, in almost half of these, the correlation is above 0.5. Slightly more than a quarter of the countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, exhibit a negative correlation. The regression analysis shows that, once one controls for population, the correlation between the bottom 40 and World Bank funding switches sign and becomes significant and negative on average. This is entirely driven by Sub-Saharan Africa and not observed in the other regions. Hence, the significant and positive correlation in the estimations without controlling for population suggests that World Bank project funding is concentrated in administrative areas in which more people live (including the bottom 40) rather than in poorer administrative areas. Furthermore, capital cities receive disproportionally high shares of World Bank funding on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bitcoin market becomes the focus of the economic market since its birth, and it has attracted wide attention from both academia and industry. Due to the absence of regulations in the Bitcoin market, it may be easier to bring some kinds of illegal behaviors. Thus, it raises an interesting question: Is there abnormity or illegal behavior in Bitcoin platforms? To answer this question, we investigate the abnormity in five leading Bitcoin platforms. By analyzing the financial index, i.e. the normalized logarithmic price return, we find that the properties of price return in bitFlyer are completely different from others. To find the possible reasons, we find that the abnormal ask price and bid price appear simultaneously in bitFlyer, which may be potentially linked to either price manipulation or money laundering. It verifies our conjecture that there may be abnormity or price manipulation in Bitcoin platforms. Furthermore, our findings in price return could also provide an innovative and effective method to detect the abnormity in Bitcoin platforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, with the rapid development of China's air transport industry and the change in market consumption structure, service quality has become one of the important factors affecting airline revenue. How to formulate a reasonable pricing strategy and maintain competitiveness in the fierce market competition has become an urgent problem for airlines. First, the impact factor of service quality level in the traditional pricing model is introduced and a static price competition model for multi-oligopoly airlines based on service quality is established in this paper. And then, a dynamic pricing model based on service quality of the multi-oligopoly airlines is established. The model incorporates the weight factor of service quality impact, which is used to indicate the weight of the service quality level in the process of airline dynamic pricing. The research results show that the service quality level of airlines has an indispensable influence on its development. Airlines should improve service quality as soon as possible to enhance market competitiveness and achieve sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops two-stage inverse data envelopment analysis models with undesirable outputs to formulate resource plans for 16 Chinese listed commercial banks whose outputs are increased and overall efficiency is kept unchanged in the short term. We use these models to meet three different output targets, namely, increasing both the desirable and undesirable outputs by the same percentage, increasing these outputs by different percentages, and increasing only the desirable outputs while keeping the undesirable outputs unchanged. We find that operation cost and interest expense are more flexible than labor in the adjustment process and that deposits have no obvious law of change. The findings of this work provide some suggestions for bank managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to demonstrate the impact of coal enterprises’ vertical integration on the performance of innovation corporate social responsibility (ICSR) and to elaborate its specific transmission path through financing structure and market power. This paper takes the data of A-share listed coal company from 2008 to 2017 as samples, uses input-output table method to measure the degree of vertical integration, and explores the relationship between the four factors through multiple linear regression and Bootstrap method. We found that: (1) the vertical integration of coal enterprises has positive incentives for the promotion of ICSR. (2) Financing structure and market power play a chain intermediary role in this process of incentive. (3) In areas with high marketization process, vertical integration has more significant incentive effect on ICSR. The paper extends the research on the relationship between vertical integration and innovation, which provides a reference for the improvement of China’s supply-side reform and corporate social responsibility (CSR) fulfillment policy. It is helpful to promote the sustainable development of the coal industry, stimulate the innovation vitality of enterprises, and improve the fulfillment of CSR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Grasping the human cost of war requires comprehensive evaluation of multiple dimensions of conflict. While the number of civilian casualties is a frequently used indicator to evaluate intensity of violence in conflict, the inclusion of other indicators may provide a more complete understanding of how war impacts people and their communities. The Syrian conflict has been specifically marked by attacks against healthcare facilities, and the advancement of technology has provided an avenue for remote data analysis of conflict trends. This study aims to determine the feasibility of using publicly available, online data of attacks on healthcare facilities to better describe population-level violence in the Syrian Civil War. Methods: This study utilized publicly available datasets from the Violations Documentation Center (VDC) and Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) to compare trends in attacks on healthcare facilities and civilian casualties from March 2011 to November 2017 in the Syrian Civil War. We used descriptive statistics, bivariate tests and a multivariable hypothesis testing model to measure the association between the two indicators while adjusting for confounding variables. Results: We examined for associations between attacks on healthcare facilities and overall civilian casualties. In the adjusted regression model, each attack on a healthcare facility in the Syrian conflict corresponded to an estimated 260 reported civilian casualties in the same month (95% CI: 227 to 294). This model adjusted for population displacement (using number of registered refugees as a proxy). The May 2014 interaction term, used a transition point of early/late war based on political events during that time, illustrated that each healthcare facility attack after May 2014 corresponded to a statistically significant decrease of 228 civilian deaths. This suggests that although attacks on healthcare facilities continued to contribute to overall civilian deaths, the scale that this was happening was lower after May 2014. Conclusion: In the Syrian Civil War, our findings suggest that the inclusion of other humanitarian indicators, such as attacks on hospitals, may add granularity to traditional indicators of violence (e.g. such as civilian casualties) to develop a more nuanced understanding of the warring tactics used and violence against civilians in the Syrian conflict. This exploratory case study represents a novel approach to utilizing open-source data along with statistical analysis to interpret violence against civilians. Future research could benefit from analyzing attacks on healthcare facilities and other civilian infrastructure concurrently with civilian casualty data for further data-driven utilization of open-source data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relevance: Popularity-based approaches are widely adopted in music recommendation systems, both in industry and research. These approaches recommend to the target user what is currently popular among all users of the system. However, as the popularity distribution of music items typically is a long-tail distribution, popularity-based approaches to music recommendation fall short in satisfying listeners that have specialized music preferences far away from the global music mainstream. Addressing this gap, the contribution of this article is three-fold. Definition of mainstreaminess measures: First, we provide several quantitative measures describing the proximity of a user’s music preference to the music mainstream. Assuming that there is a difference between the global music mainstream and a country-specific one, we define the measures at two levels: relating a listener’s music preferences to the global music preferences of all users, or relating them to music preferences of the user’s country. To quantify such music preferences, we define a music item’s popularity in terms of artist playcounts (APC) and artist listener counts (ALC). Moreover, we adopt a distribution-based and a rank-based approach as means to decrease bias towards the head of the long-tail distribution. This eventually results in a framework of 6 measures to quantify music mainstream. Differences between countries with respect to music mainstream: Second, we perform in-depth quantitative and qualitative studies of music mainstream in that we (i) analyze differences between countries in terms of their level of mainstreaminess, (ii) uncover both positive and negative outliers (substantially higher and lower country-specific popularity, respectively, compared to the global mainstream), analyzing these with a mixed-methods approach, and (iii) investigate differences between countries in terms of listening preferences related to popular music artists. We conduct our studies and experiments using the standardized LFM-1b dataset, from which we analyze about 800,000,000 listening events shared by about 53,000 users (from 47 countries) of the music streaming platform Last.fm. We show that there are substantial country-specific differences in listeners’ music consumption behavior with respect to the most popular artists listened to. Rating prediction experiments: Third, we demonstrate the applicability of our study results to improve music recommendation systems. To this end, we conduct rating prediction experiments in which we tailor recommendations to a user’s level of preference for the music mainstream using the proposed 6 mainstreaminess measures: defined by a distribution-based or rank-based approach, defined on a global level or on a country level (for the user’s country), and for APC or ALC. Our approach roughly equals a hybrid recommendation approach in which a demographic filtering strategy is implemented before collaborative filtering is performed. Results suggest that, in terms of rating prediction accuracy, each of the presented mainstreaminess definitions has its merits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of the cultural landscape, administrative toponyms do not only reflect natural and sociocultural phenomena, but also help with related management and naming work. Historically, county-level administrative districts have been stable and basic administrative regions in China, playing a role in the country’s management. We explore the spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics of the county-level administrative toponyms cultural landscape in China’s eastern plains areas. A Geographical Information System (GIS) analysis, Geo-Informatic Tupu, Kernel Density Estimation, and correlation coefficients were conducted. We constructed a GIS database of county-level administrative toponyms from the Sui dynasty onward using the Northeast China, North China, and Yangtze Plains as examples. We then summarized the spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics of the county-level administrative toponyms cultural landscape in China’s eastern plains areas. The results indicate that (1) the number of toponyms has roughly increased over time; (2) toponym densities on the three plains are higher than the national average in the corresponding timeframe since the Sui; and (3) county-level administrative toponyms related to mountains and hydrological features accounted for more than 30% of the total in 2010. However, the percentage of county-level administrative toponyms related to natural factors on the three plains has decreased since the Sui. To explore the factors influencing this spatio-temporal evolution, we analyzed the correlations between the toponyms and natural factors and human/social factors. The correlation degree between toponym density and population density is the highest, and that between toponym density and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) the lowest. Temperature changes were important in toponym changes, and population changes have influenced toponym changes over the last 400 years in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we designed a delayed payment mechanism in laboratory second price auctions (SPAs), under which subjects received a cash endowment two weeks after the experiment day and had to use their own money to pay the experimental losses (if any) on the experiment day. We compared the effect of delayed payment on overbidding in the induced value SPAs with the conventional “on-the-spot” payment mechanism where the subjects received an endowment on the experiment day, and the prepaid mechanism where the subjects received the endowment two weeks before the experiment day. Each auction was repeated for 20 rounds to provide sufficient learning opportunities to the bidders. Our results showed that bids converged to the corresponding values over auction rounds and overbidding was reduced by previous losses, consistently with the adaptive learning theory. Moreover, overbidding seems to depend significantly on bidders’ cash holding, and the magnitude of the payment treatment effects depends crucially on liquidity constraints. In the presence of liquidity constraints, both delayed and prepaid payment mechanisms reduced overbidding, while in the absence of liquidity constraints, only the delayed endowment mechanism reduced overbidding. Furthermore, when controlling the degree of liquidity constraints, subjects with higher GPAs were less likely to overbid and the delayed endowment mechanism significantly reduced overbidding compared to other payment mechanisms. These results suggest that overbidding in SPAs might be caused by bounded rationality and could be reduced by adaptive learning especially when overbidding becomes “truly” costly to subjects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Only a few, large population-based studies, have reported on whiplash-associated disorder (WAD). However, none of them have investigated the influence of crash severity on WAD outcome. In the present study, we aimed to determine whether crash severity predicts outcomes among patients with no-fault government insurance for acute WAD. Methods: We utilized data from a compulsory, no-fault government automobile liability insurance agency in Japan. Individuals involved in a car accident between April 2001 and June 2015 with residual disabilities reported at the end of the treatment between October 2014 and September 2015 were included. Crash severity was assessed based on property damage costs, size of the other vehicle (large car, medium car, small car, or two-wheeled vehicles), and collision types (rear-end collision, contact with vehicle moving in the same direction, or in the opposite direction). Outcomes included the time to claim closure and the number of treatment visits. Results: We analyzed data for a total of 52,251 individuals (28,571 male and 23,680 female) with a median age of 44 years (range: 2–95 years). The median time to claim closure was 220 days (range: 1–4,938 days), and the median number of treatment visits was 102 (range: 1–2,492). There was no significant association between outcomes and property damage costs or size of the other vehicle. Collision types exhibited no consistent association with outcomes. However, older age and affected body parts, in addition to the neck, were independent risk factors for delayed claim closure and a large number of visits, although, all odds ratios were low (often less than 2.0). Conclusions: There was no obvious association of outcomes with property damage costs, size of the other vehicle, or collision types in acute WAD patients. Further studies should investigate the influence of psychological factors, compensation systems, and cultural conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV spread in injecting drug users (IDU) occurs efficiently between individuals within their social networks. While methadone maintenance treatment has long known to be effective in combating HIV transmission in IDU, the impacts of one’s social connections and HIV status have not been well characterised. A study was conducted with the objective of differentiating the pattern of treatment participation between HIV-positive and negative methadone users and to understand its association with social connections with peers. Methods: Attendance data in one calendar year were extracted from a territory-wide electronic clinical record database of over 8000 methadone users attending 19 clinics in Hong Kong, a city with a relatively low HIV prevalence in injecting drug users. A case-control design was used by matching HIV positive methadone users with HIV negative controls. A temporal-social co-occurrence approach was adopted to construct a social network. Multiple logistic regression and network-based analyses were conducted. Results: In 2016, a total of 8332 methadone users had attended a clinic at least once, giving 1694016 attendance records that were included in the study. Some 432 methadone, 54 of whom HIV positive, were included in the case-control analyses. Multivariable logistic regression model showed that HIV-positive status was associated with drug injection history (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.28, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.19–4.38), not working fulltime (aOR 3.34, 95% CI 1.15–9.72), ethnic minority (aOR 2.59, 95% CI 1.33–5.02) and minimum daily dose of at least 20mg (aOR 3.64, 95% CI 1.08–12.26). Those having connections with other peers were older (aOR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00–1.04), had a higher mode dose (aOR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02–1.04) and had been admitted to methadone programme for longer time (aOR 1.07, 95% CI 1.02–1.13). Among those with connections, HIV-negative users did not have more connections (median degree centrality 21.00 vs 34.50, p = 0.26) but the network structure was stronger (clustering coefficient 0.65 vs 0.53, p = 0.03). Conclusion: The weak and sparse linkages may explain the generally low HIV prevalence and incidence in opioid-dependent persons in Hong Kong. Social support could play a constructive role in harm reduction and ethnic minority community-based organisations could help and reinforce treatment adherence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Factors associated with persistently high Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) prevalence levels in several districts of India are not well understood. This study was undertaken to determine the association of socio-demographic characteristics, economic factors, awareness about HIV and Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs), and condom use with consistently high HIV prevalence in the Indian districts and to ascertain whether these associations differed across various regions of India. Methods: This study was carried out including all 640 districts of India. Secondary analysis of data obtained from the Census of India-2011, HIV Sentinel Surveillance in India and District Level Household Survey-III was done. Population profile, socio-economic characteristics, levels of HIV/STI/condom awareness and condom use, were compared between the districts with and without consistently high HIV prevalence. Due to the presence of collinearity among predictor variables, we used principal component analysis and the principal component scores were included as covariates for further analysis. Considering the districts at level 1 and the regions at level 2, multi-level analysis was done by generalised linear mixed models. Variance partition coefficient and median odds ratio were also calculated. Results: Sixty-three districts with consistently high HIV prevalence were found clustered in the South and the North-east regions of India. Population size, density and urbanisation were found to be positively associated with consistently high HIV prevalence in these districts. Higher levels of literacy, better socio-economic status, higher proportion of population in reproductive age group and late marriages were positively associated with consistently high HIV prevalence in all regions of India except in the Southern region. Higher levels of knowledge about the role of condoms in HIV prevention and condom use were associated with low HIV prevalence at the district level. Conclusions: Considerable heterogeneity among factors associated with consistently high HIV prevalence at the district level in different regions of India necessitates special region-specific strategies for HIV control. Increasing awareness about HIV alone is not sufficient for controlling the HIV epidemic and there is a need to raise knowledge levels about preventive measures against HIV and promote the use of condoms amongst population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing population age structure has a significant influence on the economy, society, and numerous other aspects of a country. This paper has innovatively applied the method of compositional data forecasting for the prediction of population age changes of the young (aged 0–14), the middle-aged (aged 15–64), and the elderly (aged older than 65) in China, India, and Vietnam by 2030 based on data from 1960 to 2016. To select the best-suited forecasting model, an array of data transformation approaches and forecasting models have been extensively employed, and a large number of comparisons have been made between the aforementioned methods. The best-suited model for each country is identified considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute percent error values from the compositional data. As noted in this study, first and foremost, it is predicted that by the year 2030, China will witness the disappearance of population dividend and get mired in an aging problem far more severe than that of India or Vietnam. Second, Vietnam’s trend of change in population age structure resembles that of China, but the country will sustain its good health as a whole. Finally, the working population of India demonstrates a strong rising trend, indicating that the age structure of the Indian population still remains relatively “young”. Meanwhile, the continuous rise in the proportion of elderly population and the gradual leveling off growth of the young population have nevertheless become serious problems in the world. The present paper attempts to offer crucial insights into the Asian population size, labor market and urbanization, and, moreover, provides suggestions for a sustainable global demographic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Safety climate, which provides a snapshot of safety culture, is rarely measured in Indonesian healthcare organisations because there are no validated surveys that can be administered in its native language, Bahasa Indonesia. The objectives of this study were to translate and linguistically adapt the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire into Bahasa Indonesia, and investigate the internal construct validity and reliability of the translated survey. Methods: The Safety Attitudes Questionnaire was translated into Indonesian language through forward and backward translation. The internal construct validity and reliability of the translated survey was assessed using Rasch analysis which examines overall model fit, unidimensionality, response format, targeting, internal consistency reliability and item bias. Results: A total of 279 nurses (response rate 82%) completed the Indonesian version of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire. Most respondents were Division 2 registered nurses (n = 209; 75%), female (n = 174; 62%), and aged less than 30 years (n = 187; 67%). All six domains of the Indonesian version of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire demonstrated unidimensionality (t-test less than 0.05 threshold value). However, suboptimal targeting (ceiling effect) was observed in all domains, and had at least one misfitting item (item fit residual beyond ±2.5) Item bias was also evident in most domains. Conclusion: This study has translated and validated an Indonesian version of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire for the first time. Whilst there was general support to sum items to obtain domain scores, further work is required to refine the response options as well as the wording and number of items in this survey to improve its overall measurement properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is one of the most common neurological disorders and is one of the main causes of disability. The prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran is reported to range from 5.3 to 89/ 100,000and 7 to 148.1/ 100,000, respectively. There are no systematic and meta-analysis studies on MS in Iran. Therefore, this study was conducted to investigate the prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran using meta-analysis. Method: A systematic review of the present study focused on MS epidemiology in Iran based on PRISMA guidelines for systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched eight international databases including Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Google Scholar search engine and six Persian databases for peer-reviewed studies published without time limit until May 2018. Data were analyzed using Comprehensive meta-analysis ver. 2 software. The review protocol has been registered in PROSPERO with ID: CRD42018114491. Results: According to searching on different databases, 39 (15%) articles finalized. The prevalence of MS in Iran was estimated 29.3/ 100,000 (95%CI: 25.6–33.5) based on random effects model. The prevalence of MS in men and women was estimated to be 16.5/ 100,000 (95%CI: 13.7–23.4) and 44.8/ 100,000 (95%CI: 36.3–61.6), respectively. The incidence of MS in Iran was estimated to be 3.4/ 100,000 (95%CI: 1.8–6.2) based on random effects model. The incidence of MS in men was estimated to be 16.5/ 100,000 (95%CI: 13.7–23.4) and the incidence of MS in women was 44.8/ 100,000 (95%CI: 36.3–61.6). The meta-regression model for prevalence and incidence of MS was significantly higher in terms of year of study (p<0.001). Conclusions: The results of this study can provide a general picture of MS epidemiology in Iran. The current meta-analysis showed that the prevalence and incidence of MS in Iran is high and is rising over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to investigate the running pace and step characteristics among various competitive-level 400-m hurdlers through inter-group and intra-athlete comparisons. We analysed spatiotemporal data involving the split time, mean step length (SL) and mean step frequency (SF) for 13 male world-class and 14 male national-level 400-m hurdlers. We analysed 16.5 ± 3.9 races for each world-class hurdler and 19.8 ± 6.0 races for each national-level hurdler (the total number of analysed runs was 491) using publicly available television and internet broadcasts. Inter-group comparisons showed that both first- and latter-halves split times of the world-class hurdlers were significantly shorter than those of the national-level hurdlers. In the latter-half phase, no significant differences of SL and SF were observed between the world-class and national level hurdlers. Intra-athlete comparisons showed that no athletes favoured only first-half phase in terms of running speed in short finish times. In contrast, finish times of all hurdlers were sensitive to running speed in the latter-half phase. In the latter half of the race, 18 of the 27 hurdlers were identified as being SF reliant during speed enhancements; running speed of the other 9 hurdlers were also sensitive to high SF. In conclusions, important findings regarding high performance in inter-group comparisons do not always corresponded with those in intra-athlete comparisons. All athletes and coaches should first prioritize maintaining high running speeds in the latter half of 400-m hurdles rather than in the first half of the race. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The complex nature of mental well-being is reflected in the great diversity of variables thought to represent aspects of mental flourishing. Discovering the underlying structure of mental well-being is important for a full understanding of this complex construct. Using data from 3 countries (the United States, Japan, and Iran), we performed multi-dimensional scaling to analyze the representation of 9 hedonic and eudaimonic well-being variables in a 2-dimensional psychological space. The analyses revealed 2 interpretable underlying dimensions across cultures and gender groups. The first dimension—eudaimonic well-being versus hedonic well-being—is well-known to well-being researchers. The second dimension—existential relatedness versus Epicurean independence—has not been recognized before. Existential relatedness is the characteristic of being meaningfully interconnected with things other than oneself, and is mainly based on the variables positive relations with others, personal growth, purpose in life, and life satisfaction. Epicurean independence is the characteristic of being relatively free of painful experiences and not feeling the need to have ones’ views accepted by anyone but oneself. Epicurean independence is mainly based on the variables autonomy and absence of negative affect. We explain these dimensions in detail and discuss the implications for well-being research and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commercial surrogacy in emerging countries such as India is often associated with exploitation of vulnerable women, the assumption being that it is performed by poor and uneducated women for rich intended parents. However, the hypothesis that surrogates are poor women has rarely been confronted with field data. The objective was to compare the socioeconomic characteristics of Indian surrogates interviewed in social studies with those of Indian women in the general population in order to provide preliminary data on whether surrogates have a specific profile and are indeed disadvantaged compared with their counterparts. The study analyzes the data from four cross-sectional studies carried out in India among surrogates between 2006 and 2014. Surrogates were recruited through clinics, agencies and agents. Data were collected during face-to-face interviews. The resulting convenience sample included 96 Indian surrogates. Their sociodemographic characteristics were compared with those of the general population extracted from Indian national surveys. The surrogates interviewed had their first child at a younger age than women in the general population, but they tended to have a smaller family. Their social situation tended to be better than that of the general population in terms of education, employment and family income. These results provide first empirical evidence moderating the common assumption that Indian surrogates are the poorest and least educated women. This does not mean, however, that exploitation does not exist. More studies are needed to confirm these results and to explore the issue in new international destinations for surrogacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how negative shocks due to, for example, natural disasters propagate through supply chains. We apply a simulation technique to actual supply chain data covering most Japanese firms. To investigate the property of the propagation in the network, we test different types of artificial negative shocks. We find that, first, network structures severely affect the speed of propagation in the short run, and the total loss in the long run. The scale-free nature of the actual supply-chain network—that is, the power-law degree distribution—leads to faster propagation. Second, more intensive damages—that is, more damages suffered by fewer firms—result in faster propagation than extensive damages of the same total size. Third, the actual supply-chain network has innate robustness that comes from substitutability of supplies. If the supply-chain network has severe substitutability, the propagation of negative shocks becomes substantially large. Fourth, direct damages in urban regions promote faster propagation than those in rural regions. Fifth, different sectoral damages show significant differences in the speed of propagation. Finally, we check the indirect damage triggered by a single firm’s loss: 9.7% of all firms contribute to significant loss, and this loss accounts for more than 10% of the damage to the entire production. The simulations conspicuously show that different direct damages, even if they have the same total magnitude of damages, can generate considerably different damages because of the structure of the supply-chain network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the relationship of weather conditions, together with sex and country of origin, with running performance in the Boston Marathon from 1972 to 2018. A total of 580,990 observations from 382,209 different finishers were analyzed using Generalized Additive Mixed Models. Different groups and subgroups were considered such as all runners, near elite 101:200 finishers, near elite 21:100, annual top ten finishers and annual winners. Weather conditions, over the hours of the event, were average air temperature (°C), total precipitations (mm), wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) (°C), wind speed (km/h), wind direction (head wind, side wind, tail wind) and barometric pressure (hPa). These effects were examined in a multi-variable model, together with: sex, country of origin, calendar year, an interaction term country:sex and a spline smooth term in function of calendar year and sex. The average temperature, when increasing by 1°C, was related to worsened performance (by 00:01:47 h:min:sec for all finishers and by 00:00:20 h:min:sec for annual winners). Also, the pressure and wet-bulb globe temperature, when increasing, were related to worsened performances. Tail wind improved performances of all groups. Increasing precipitation was significantly (p<0.05) related to worsened performances in all groups except annual winners. Increasing wind speed was also related to worsened performances in all finishers and near elite groups. Kenyans and Ethiopians were the fastest nationalities. The sex differences (men faster than women in all groups) were the largest in near elite groups. Our findings contributed to the knowledge of the performance in Boston Marathon across calendar years, considering as main effects weather conditions, country of origin and sex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Despite suicide rate becoming a growing trend in research locally and globally, there is no standard measuring instrument developed in Malaysia. The aim of this study is to establish the first ever Malay version of suicide screening tool that is suitable and fit with multiracial and complex culture of Malaysia. Methods: This study comprises of three phases, namely (1) items selection phase, (2) pilot study phase, and (3) scale validation phase. During the first phase, the items were selected from items pools which gathered from previous suicide ideation/ attitude scales. Then the pilot study was carried out to examine the items for Yatt Suicide Attitude Scale (YSAS). Lastly, the Yatt Suicide Attitude Scale (YSAS) validation study was conducted with 219 university students. Results: Initial version of YSAS comprised 16 items and three components. After factor analysis, the questionnaire was reduced into only two components (Suicide Ideation and Suicide Attempt) with 5 items each. Both of the components obtained high reliability value (.89 and.86 respectively) and the questionnaire accounted for 67.84% of the total variance. Conclusion: The analysis showed that YSAS has an acceptable reliability and validity for Malaysian population. Although these findings corroborate literature on development of suicide ideation assessment instrument for specific cultural context, there is a need to further examine its reliability with clinical population and general population of different cultural context in Malaysia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of predicting evacuation mobility dynamics after large scale disasters for effective first response and disaster relief, our general understanding of evacuation behavior remains limited because of the lack of empirical evidence on the evacuation movement of individuals across multiple disaster instances. Here we investigate the GPS trajectories of a total of more than 1 million anonymized mobile phone users whose positions were tracked for a period of 2 months before and after four of the major earthquakes that occurred in Japan. Through a cross comparative analysis between the four disaster instances, we find that in contrast to the assumed complexity of evacuation decision making mechanisms in crisis situations, an individual’s evacuation probability is strongly dependent on the seismic intensity that they experience. In fact, we show that the evacuation probabilities in all earthquakes collapse into a similar pattern, with a critical threshold at around seismic intensity 5.5. This indicates that despite the diversity in the earthquakes profiles and urban characteristics, evacuation behavior is similarly dependent on seismic intensity. Moreover, we found that probability density functions of the distances that individuals evacuate are not dependent on seismic intensities that individuals experience. These insights from empirical analysis on evacuation from multiple earthquake instances using large scale mobility data contributes to a deeper understanding of how people react to earthquakes, and can potentially assist decision makers to simulate and predict the number of evacuees in urban areas with little computational time and cost. This can be achieved by utilizing only the information on population density distribution and seismic intensity distribution, which can be observed instantaneously after the shock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) universities are important bases for science and technology research and play a critical role in China’s National Innovation System. Based on the Web of Science (WoS), this article analyzes the statistics of paper published by MIIT universities and universities from across China including MIIT universities. The results are as follows: (1) Both the MIIT universities and universities nationwide in China have increased their international academic publications, and MIIT have shown a greater increase for the past decade. (2) In terms of U-I-G interaction, for UG relations, the Tug value of MIIT universities has remained stable, while that of universities in China has become declined. For UI relations, the Tui value of both MIIT universities and universities in China has shown steady growth. For UIG relations, MIIT universities have a greater synergistic effect of Triple Helix relationship than universities in China. (3) For more details in seven MIIT universities, universities elected into “Project 985”, including HIT, BUAA, BIT and NPU, have published more papers, and been more synergistic with government and industry (UIG relations) than other three universities, including NUAA, NUST and HEU. Based on the empirical results, we discuss our findings, and make certain suggestions regarding policy incentives, reasonable administrative system and U-I-G interaction mode, which is significant not only for Chinese universities but also for universities in other developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts to mitigate public health concerns are showing encouraging results over the time but disparities across the geographic regions still exist within countries. Inadequate researches on the regional disparities of health indicators based on representative and comparable data create challenges to develop evidence-based health policies, planning and future studies in developing countries like Bangladesh. This study examined the disparities among districts on various maternal and child health indicators in Bangladesh. Cluster analysis–an unsupervised learning technique was used based on nationally representative dataset originated from Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), 2012–13. According to our results, Bangladesh is classified into two clusters based on different health indicators with substantial variations in districts per clusters for different sets of indicators suggesting regional variation across the indicators. There is a need to differentially focus on community-level interventions aimed at increasing maternal and child health care utilization and improving the socioeconomic position of mothers, especially in disadvantaged regions. The cluster analysis approach is unique in terms of the use of health care metrics in a multivariate setup to study regional similarity and dissimilarity in the context of Bangladesh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Doha Development Agenda recognizes the central role that international trade can play in the promotion of economic development. In fact, the increase of exports from developing countries to developed nations' markets has been considered a key element for developing countries to realize the potential benefits of globalization. Over the last decades, developed countries have provided preferential access to their markets to developing countries through nonreciprocal trade agreements. Moreover, developing countries have also participated in reciprocal trade agreements. This paper re-examines comparatively the effect of both kinds of trade agreements on exports from developing countries but also from the developed world. In line with other studies, our results across specifications are unstable. However, the results of our preferred specification give additional support to the argument raised by critics of nonreciprocal preference regimes who consider that developing countries should abandon their reliance on one-way trade preferences in favor of reciprocal agreements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most research on consumer attitudes does not consider that attitudes are likely influenced by people with whom we have some relationship even though socioeconomic, psychological and political theories recognize the importance of referent individuals’ opinions in attitude formation. Knowledge on the role of referent individuals’ opinions in attitude formation could improve the understanding of consumer acceptance of foods frequently associated with health or other concerns. This article examines the association of attitudes towards genetically modified (GM) crops and foods between young adults and their referent individuals using data collected in 2016 via surveys from the Czech Republic, Russia and Ukraine. Loglinear models of cell counts in contingency tables reveal a positive association of GM food attitudes between young adults and their referent individuals. This association was stronger in Russia and the Czech Republic than it was in Ukraine and stronger between female young adults and their referent individuals than between males and their referent individuals. Concordance in GM food attitudes with mothers is significantly stronger than concordance with best friends but not significantly different from concordance with fathers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Only a few studies exist on the resilience of divorced women. Furthermore, relevant instruments for assessing the resilience of divorced immigrant Southeast Asian women are rare. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to develop and examine a new Resilience Scale-Chinese version (RS-C) that is specific to divorced immigrant Southeast Asian women in Taiwan. Methods: The study was conducted in two phases. In phase 1, 20 items were used to evaluate face and content validities. In phase 2, a cross-sectional study was conducted. In total, 118 immigrant women participated in this study and were recruited from three nongovernmental organizations providing services for immigrants in Taipei City and Miaoli and Chiayi Counties. Psychometric properties of the instrument (i.e., internal consistency, test–retest reliability, item-to-total correlation, construct validity, and convergent validity) were examined. Significance was set at p < 0.05 for all statistical tests. Results: The final 16-item RS-C resulted in a three-factor model. The three factors, namely personal competence, family identity, and social connections, were an acceptable fit for the data and explained 54.60% of the variance. Cronbach’s α of the RS-C was 0.85, and those of its subscales ranged from 0.77 to 0.82. The correlation value of the test–retest reliability was 0.87. The RS-C was significantly associated with the General Self-Efficacy scale and the Chinese Health Questionnaire-12. Conclusion: The RS-C is a brief and specific self-report tool for evaluating the resilience of divorced immigrant Southeast Asian women and demonstrated adequate reliability and validity in this study. This RS-C instrument has potential applications in both clinical practice and research with strength-based resiliency interventions. However, additional research on the RS-C is required to further establish its reliability and validity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the recent increase in economic evaluations of health care programs in low and middle income countries, there is still a surprising gap in evidence on the appropriate discount rate and the discounting of health outcomes such as quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Our study aimed to calculate the implied time preference rate for health outcomes in Iran and its key determinants. Data were gathered from one family member from each of the 650 households randomly selected in Tehran. The respondents’ private and social preferences for health outcomes were calculated using the time trade-off (TTO) technique based on the discounted utility model. We investigated the main assumptions of the discounted utility model through equality of mean comparison, and the association between private time preference and key socio-economic determinants using multilevel regression analysis. The mean and median implied rates were 5.8% and 4.9% for private time preference and 25.6% and 20% for social time preference respectively. Our study confirmed that magnitude, framing and time effects have a significant impact on implied discount rates, which means that the conventional discounted utility model’s main assumptions are violated in the Iranian general population. Other models of discounting which apply lower rates for far health outcomes might provide a more sensible solution to discounting health interventions with long-term impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current extinction crisis leaves us increasingly reliant on captive populations to maintain vulnerable species. Approximately one third of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) are living in semi-captive conditions in range countries. Their relationship with humans stretches back millennia, yet elephants have never been fully domesticated. We rely on the expertise of traditional handlers (mahouts) to manage these essentially wild animals, yet this profession may be threatened in the modern day. Here, we study the handling system of semi-captive timber elephants in Myanmar; the largest global semi-captive population (~5 000). We investigate how recent changes in Myanmar may have affected the keeping system and mahout-elephant interactions. Structured interviews investigated changes to mahout attitude and experience over the last two decades, as perceived by those who had worked in the industry for at least 10 years (n = 23) and as evaluated in current mahouts (n = 210), finding mahouts today are younger (median age 22yrs), less experienced (median experience 3yrs), and change elephants frequently, threatening traditional knowledge transfer. Mahout-elephant interactions manifested as 5 components (‘job appreciation’; ‘experience is necessary’; ‘human-elephant interaction’; ‘own knowledge’; ‘elephant relationship’), according to Principal Components Analysis. Experienced mahouts and mahouts of bulls and younger elephants were more likely to agree that ‘experience is necessary’ to be a mahout. Mahouts with difficult elephants scored lower on ‘human-elephant interaction’ and a mahout’s perception of their ‘own knowledge’ increased with more experience. Our finding of change in terms of mahout experience, age and commitment in the largest semi-captive elephant population suggests need for formal training and assessment of impacts on elephant welfare; these are findings applicable to thousands of elephants under similar management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In this study, we aim to establish the impact of the introduction of the Family Medicine Model patient satisfaction in the Turkish health system. Methods: We use data on data 69,028 primary health care (PHC) patients over the period 2010–2012. We estimate the impact of the Family Medicine Model in panel regressions with province fixed effects, exploiting the sequential introduction of this health systems transformation across Turkey's 81 provinces. We use principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the data from the European Patients Evaluate General/Family Practice (EUROPEP) patient satisfaction survey, to focus on the fundamental dimensions of patient satisfaction and to decrease the need for multiple hypothesis testing. We identified two key principal components. The first captured primarily information on satisfaction with provider behavior and the second on satisfaction with the organization of care. We then use these two principal components as outcome variables in our panel analysis to estimate the causal impact of the introduction of the Family Medicine Model. Results: The Family Medicine Model significantly improved patient satisfaction across a range of dimensions. The coefficient results showed a positive and statistically significant impact (p-values<0.05) of the Family Medicine Model on the outcome variables representing the satisfaction dimensions clinical behaviour and the organization of care even after controlling for calendar time fixed effects. Conclusions: The introduction of the Family Medicine Model in Turkey, which was primarily aimed at achieving universal health coverage goals, substantially improved patient satisfaction. This study provides some of the first national-level evidence that the introduction of a Family Medicine Model can substantially improve patient satisfaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anaemia prevalence in pregnant women of India declined from 57.9% to 50.3% from National Family Health Survey (NFHS)-3 to NFHS-4. However, over the course of that decade, the uptake of iron and folic acid (IFA) supplementation for 100 days of pregnancy improved by only 15%. To understand demand side risk factors of anaemia specifically related to IFA intake, an in-depth survey was conducted on pregnant women (n = 436) in 50 villages and wards of Sirohi district of Rajasthan, India. At the demand side, consistent IFA consumption in the previous trimester was inversely and strongly associated with anaemia (OR: 0.26, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.55). Reasons for inconsistent consumption included not registering to antenatal clinic, not receiving IFA tablets from the health worker and perceived lack of need. At the supply side, an analysis of IFA stock data at various levels of the health care (n = 168) providers from primary to tertiary levels showed that 14 out of 52 villages surveyed did not have access to IFA tablets. The closest availability of an IFA tablet for 16 villages, was more than 5 km away. To improve the uptake of IFA supplementation and thereby reduce iron deficiency anaemia in pregnant women, a constant supply of IFA at the village or sub-centre level, where frontline workers can promote uptake, should be ensured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satisfaction with childbirth services is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, providing relevant insights into women's opinion on quality of services received. Research studies report a dearth of standardised scales that quantify this phenomenon; and none have been tested in India to the best of authors' knowledge. The current study was undertaken to evaluate psychometric properties of Hindi version of the Turkish Scale for Measuring Maternal Satisfaction: Normal and Caesarean Births versions in order to fill this gap. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in selected public health facilities in Chhattisgarh, India. Healthy women (n = 1004) who gave birth to a single, live neonate, vaginally or via Caesarean section participated. Psychometric assessment was carried out in four steps: 1) scales translated from Turkish to Hindi; 2) Content Validity Index scores calculated for Hindi scales; 3) data collection; 4) statistical analyses for Hindi scales (Normal and Caesarean Birth). A 10-factor model with 36 items emerged for both scales. The Hindi- translated Normal Birth and Caesarean Birth scales had good internal reliability (Cronbach’s α coefficients of 0.85 and 0.80, respectively). The Hindi Scales for Measuring Maternal Satisfaction (Normal and Caesarean Birth) are valid and reliable tools for utilization in Indian health facilities. Their multi-dimensional nature presents an opportunity for the care providers and health administrators to incorporate women's opinions in intervention to improve quality of childbirth services. Having an international tool validated within India also provides a platform for comparing cross-country findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]