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Production of electricity from the burning of fossil fuels has caused an increase in the emission of greenhouse gases. In the long run, greenhouse gases cause harm to the environment. To reduce these gases, it is important to accurately forecast electricity production, supply and consumption. Forecasting of electricity consumption is, in particular, useful for minimizing problems of overproduction and oversupply of electricity. This research study focuses on forecasting electricity consumption based on time series data using different artificial intelligence and metaheuristic methods. The aim of the study is to determine which model among the artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), least squares support vector machines (LSSVMs) and fuzzy time series (FTS) produces the highest level of accuracy in forecasting electricity consumption. The variables considered in this research include the monthly electricity consumption over the years for different countries. The monthly electricity consumption data for seven countries, namely, Norway, Switzerland, Malaysia, Egypt, Algeria, Bulgaria and Kenya, for 10 years were used in this research. The performance of all of the models was evaluated and compared using error metrics such as the root mean squared error (RMSE), average forecasting error (AFE) and performance parameter (PP). The differences in the results obtained via the different methods are analyzed and discussed, and it is shown that the different models performed better for different countries in different forecasting periods. Overall, it was found that the FTS model performed the best for most of the countries studied compared to the other three models. The research results can allow electricity management companies to have better strategic planning when deciding on the optimal levels of electricity production and supply, with the overall aim of preventing surpluses or shortages in the electricity supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial neural network (ANN) has been well applied in pattern recognition, classification and machine learning thanks to its high performance. Most ANNs are designed by a static structure whose weights are trained during a learning process by supervised or unsupervised methods. These training methods require a set of initial weights values, which are normally randomly generated, with different initial sets of weight values leading to different convergent ANNs for the same training set. Dealing with these drawbacks, a trend of dynamic ANN was invoked in the past year. However, they are either too complex or far from practical applications such as in the pathology predictor in binary multi-input multi-output (MIMO) problems, when the role of a symptom is considered as an agent, a pathology predictor's outcome is formed by action of active agents while other agents' activities seem to be ignored or have mirror effects. In this paper, we propose a new dynamic structural ANN for MIMO problems based on the dependency graph, which gives clear cause and result relationships between inputs and outputs. The new ANN has the dynamic structure of hidden layer as a directed graph showing the relation between input, hidden and output nodes. The properties of the new dynamic structural ANN are experienced with a pathology problem and its learning methods' performances are compared on a real well known dataset. The result shows that both approaches for structural learning process improve the quality of ANNs during learning iteration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]