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Large pre-trained models, also known as foundation models (FMs), are trained in a task-agnostic manner on large-scale data and can be adapted to a wide range of downstream tasks by fine-tuning, few-shot, or even zero-shot learning. Despite their successes in language and vision tasks, we have yet seen an attempt to develop foundation models for geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI). In this work, we explore the promises and challenges of developing multimodal foundation models for GeoAI. We first investigate the potential of many existing FMs by testing their performances on seven tasks across multiple geospatial subdomains including Geospatial Semantics, Health Geography, Urban Geography, and Remote Sensing. Our results indicate that on several geospatial tasks that only involve text modality such as toponym recognition, location description recognition, and US state-level/county-level dementia time series forecasting, these task-agnostic LLMs can outperform task-specific fully-supervised models in a zero-shot or few-shot learning setting. However, on other geospatial tasks, especially tasks that involve multiple data modalities (e.g., POI-based urban function classification, street view image-based urban noise intensity classification, and remote sensing image scene classification), existing foundation models still underperform task-specific models. Based on these observations, we propose that one of the major challenges of developing a FM for GeoAI is to address the multimodality nature of geospatial tasks. After discussing the distinct challenges of each geospatial data modality, we suggest the possibility of a multimodal foundation model which can reason over various types of geospatial data through geospatial alignments. We conclude this paper by discussing the unique risks and challenges to develop such a model for GeoAI.

Meta-training agents with memory has been shown to culminate in Bayes-optimal agents, which casts Bayes-optimality as the implicit solution to a numerical optimization problem rather than an explicit modeling assumption. Bayes-optimal agents are risk-neutral, since they solely attune to the expected return, and ambiguity-neutral, since they act in new situations as if the uncertainty were known. This is in contrast to risk-sensitive agents, which additionally exploit the higher-order moments of the return, and ambiguity-sensitive agents, which act differently when recognizing situations in which they lack knowledge. Humans are also known to be averse to ambiguity and sensitive to risk in ways that aren't Bayes-optimal, indicating that such sensitivity can confer advantages, especially in safety-critical situations. How can we extend the meta-learning protocol to generate risk- and ambiguity-sensitive agents? The goal of this work is to fill this gap in the literature by showing that risk- and ambiguity-sensitivity also emerge as the result of an optimization problem using modified meta-training algorithms, which manipulate the experience-generation process of the learner. We empirically test our proposed meta-training algorithms on agents exposed to foundational classes of decision-making experiments and demonstrate that they become sensitive to risk and ambiguity., 33 pages, 8 figures, technical report

Particularly in low-data regimes, an outstanding challenge in machine learning is developing principled techniques for augmenting our models with suitable priors. This is to encourage them to learn in ways that are compatible with our understanding of the world. But in contrast to generic priors such as shrinkage or sparsity, we draw inspiration from the recent successes of large-scale language models (LMs) to construct task-specific priors distilled from the rich knowledge of LMs. Our method, Language Model Priors (LMPriors), incorporates auxiliary natural language metadata about the task -- such as variable names and descriptions -- to encourage downstream model outputs to be consistent with the LM's common-sense reasoning based on the metadata. Empirically, we demonstrate that LMPriors improve model performance in settings where such natural language descriptions are available, and perform well on several tasks that benefit from such prior knowledge, such as feature selection, causal inference, and safe reinforcement learning., Comment: First two authors contributed equally

Reliable generalization lies at the heart of safe ML and AI. However, understanding when and how neural networks generalize remains one of the most important unsolved problems in the field. In this work, we conduct an extensive empirical study (20'910 models, 15 tasks) to investigate whether insights from the theory of computation can predict the limits of neural network generalization in practice. We demonstrate that grouping tasks according to the Chomsky hierarchy allows us to forecast whether certain architectures will be able to generalize to out-of-distribution inputs. This includes negative results where even extensive amounts of data and training time never lead to any non-trivial generalization, despite models having sufficient capacity to fit the training data perfectly. Our results show that, for our subset of tasks, RNNs and Transformers fail to generalize on non-regular tasks, LSTMs can solve regular and counter-language tasks, and only networks augmented with structured memory (such as a stack or memory tape) can successfully generalize on context-free and context-sensitive tasks.

A structural equation model (SEM) is an effective framework to reason over causal relationships represented via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Recent advances have enabled effective maximum-likelihood point estimation of DAGs from observational data. However, a point estimate may not accurately capture the uncertainty in inferring the underlying graph in practical scenarios, wherein the true DAG is non-identifiable and/or the observed dataset is limited. We propose Bayesian Causal Discovery Nets (BCD Nets), a variational inference framework for estimating a distribution over DAGs characterizing a linear-Gaussian SEM. Developing a full Bayesian posterior over DAGs is challenging due to the the discrete and combinatorial nature of graphs. We analyse key design choices for scalable VI over DAGs, such as 1) the parametrization of DAGs via an expressive variational family, 2) a continuous relaxation that enables low-variance stochastic optimization, and 3) suitable priors over the latent variables. We provide a series of experiments on real and synthetic data showing that BCD Nets outperform maximum-likelihood methods on standard causal discovery metrics such as structural Hamming distance in low data regimes., Neural Information Processing Systems 2021

In many sequential decision-making problems (e.g., robotics control, game playing, sequential prediction), human or expert data is available containing useful information about the task. However, imitation learning (IL) from a small amount of expert data can be challenging in high-dimensional environments with complex dynamics. Behavioral cloning is a simple method that is widely used due to its simplicity of implementation and stable convergence but doesn't utilize any information involving the environment's dynamics. Many existing methods that exploit dynamics information are difficult to train in practice due to an adversarial optimization process over reward and policy approximators or biased, high variance gradient estimators. We introduce a method for dynamics-aware IL which avoids adversarial training by learning a single Q-function, implicitly representing both reward and policy. On standard benchmarks, the implicitly learned rewards show a high positive correlation with the ground-truth rewards, illustrating our method can also be used for inverse reinforcement learning (IRL). Our method, Inverse soft-Q learning (IQ-Learn) obtains state-of-the-art results in offline and online imitation learning settings, significantly outperforming existing methods both in the number of required environment interactions and scalability in high-dimensional spaces, often by more than 3x., Spotlight in NeurIPS 2021. Winner of '21 MineRL BASALT Challenge. Website: https://div99.github.io/IQ-Learn

We introduce a new generative model for human planning under the Bayesian Inverse Reinforcement Learning (BIRL) framework which takes into account the fact that humans often plan using hierarchical strategies. We describe the Bayesian Inverse Hierarchical RL (BIHRL) algorithm for inferring the values of hierarchical planners, and use an illustrative toy model to show that BIHRL retains accuracy where standard BIRL fails. Furthermore, BIHRL is able to accurately predict the goals of `Wikispeedia' game players, with inclusion of hierarchical structure in the model resulting in a large boost in accuracy. We show that BIHRL is able to significantly outperform BIRL even when we only have a weak prior on the hierarchical structure of the plans available to the agent, and discuss the significant challenges that remain for scaling up this framework to more realistic settings., Comment: Presented at the first Workshop on Goal Specifications for Reinforcement Learning, ICML 2018, Stockholm, Sweden

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are widely used to model sequential data but their non-linear dependencies between sequence elements prevent parallelizing training over sequence length. We show the training of RNNs with only linear sequential dependencies can be parallelized over the sequence length using the parallel scan algorithm, leading to rapid training on long sequences even with small minibatch size. We develop a parallel linear recurrence CUDA kernel and show that it can be applied to immediately speed up training and inference of several state of the art RNN architectures by up to 9x. We abstract recent work on linear RNNs into a new framework of linear surrogate RNNs and develop a linear surrogate model for the long short-term memory unit, the GILR-LSTM, that utilizes parallel linear recurrence. We extend sequence learning to new extremely long sequence regimes that were previously out of reach by successfully training a GILR-LSTM on a synthetic sequence classification task with a one million timestep dependency., Comment: 9 pages. Published as a conference paper at ICLR 2018