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Objective: To identify predictors of flare in a 2-year follow-up study of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in sustained clinical remission tapering towards withdrawal of biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs)., Methods: Sustained clinical remission was defined as Disease Activity Score for 28 joints (DAS28)-C reactive protein (CRP) ≤2.6 without radiographic progression for >1 year. bDMARDs were tapered according to a mandatory clinical guideline to two-thirds of standard dose at baseline, half of dose at week 16 and discontinuation at week 32. Prospective assessments for 2 years included clinical evaluation, conventional radiography, ultrasound and MRI for signs of inflammation and bone changes. Flare was defined as DAS28-CRP ≥2.6 with ∆DAS28-CRP ≥1.2 from baseline. Baseline predictors of flare were assessed by logistic regression analyses., Results: Of 142 included patients, 121 (85%) flared during follow-up of which 86% regained remission within 24 weeks after flare. Patients that flared were more often rheumatoid factor positive, had tried more bDMARDs and had higher baseline ultrasound synovitis sum scores than those not flaring. For patients on standard dose, predictors of flare within 16 weeks after reduction to two-thirds of standard dose were baseline MRI-osteitis (OR 1.16; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.33; p=0.014), gender (female) (OR 6.71; 95% CI 1.68 to 46.12; p=0.005) and disease duration (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11; p=0.020). Baseline predictors for flare within 2 years were ultrasound grey scale synovitis sum score (OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.44; p=0.020) and number of previous bDMARDs (OR 4.07; 95% CI 1.35 to 24.72; p=0.007)., Conclusion: The majority of real-world patients with RA tapering bDMARDs flared during tapering, with the majority regaining remission after stepwise dose increase. Demographic and imaging parameters (MR-osteitis/ultrasound greyscale synovitis) were independent predictors of immediate flare and flare overall and may be of importance for clinical decision-making in patients eligible for tapering., Competing Interests: Competing interests: LT: Speakers fee from Janssen, Roche, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB and Eli-Lilly, consultancy fee from Janssen. MO: research support, consultancy fees and/or speaker fees form Abbvie, BMS, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Celgene, Eli-Lilly, Galapagos, Gilead, Hospira, Janssen, Merck, Novartis, Novo, Orion, Pfizer, Regeneron, Roche, Sandoz, Sanofi and UCB. LJ: Speakers fees and consultancy fees from AbbVie, Eli-Lilly, and Novartis. UMO: consultancy fees from Eli-Lilly, Roche, Novartis, speakers fee from Roche. SK: research support from AbbVie, MSD and Novartis. DG: Speakers fee from Eli-Lilly; AH: speakers fee from Eli-Lilly; KA: speakers fees and advisory board membership fees from AbbVie, Cellgene, Pfizer, Novartis, Roche, Berlin Chemie, Eli-Lilly and MSD; MB: research support, consultancy fees and/or speaker fees from Image Analysis Group, Esaote, Abbvie, Celgene, Eli-Lilly, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB, Novo, GSK, Takeda, Geurbet, Biogen, Radiobotics, Chondrometrics. MLH: grants from Bristol-Myers Squibb, AbbVie, Roche and Novartis, grants and personal fees from MSD, Biogen, and Pfizer, and personal fees from Eli-Lilly, Orion Pharma, CellTrion, Samsung Bioepis, Janssen Biologics B.V., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To assess the ability of ultrasound to predict successful tapering and successful discontinuation of biological DMARDs (bDMARDs) at the 2-year follow-up in RA patients in sustained remission., Methods: Patients in sustained remission (DAS28-CRP ≤ 2.6) and with no radiographic progression the previous year tapered bDMARDs according to a standardized regime. A total of 119 of these patients were included in this ultrasound substudy. At baseline, clinical assessment, MRI, X-ray and ultrasound of 24 joints were performed. Ultrasound-detected synovitis was defined and scored 0-3 using the OMERACT scoring system at the joint level for both grey-scale and Doppler activity. Sum scores for each ultrasound modality were calculated for 24 joints at the patient level. The final state of treatment was assessed after 2 years. The predictive value of ultrasound measures for successful tapering and discontinuation at the 2-year follow-up was assessed via logistic regression analyses., Results: Negative IgM-RF [odds ratio (OR) = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.10-0.85; P = 0.024] and lower Doppler sum score of 24 joints (OR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.87; P = 0.014) were independent predictors for successful discontinuation of bDMARDs at the 2-year follow-up. The predictive value of the Doppler sum score was independent of MRI findings. Previous numbers of bDMARDs were predictive of successful tapering (OR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.91; P = 0.018), whereas ultrasound was not. Clinical parameters were not predictive of successful tapering/discontinuation., Conclusion: Doppler sum score was an independent predictor for successful discontinuation of bDMARDs at the 2-year follow-up-the odds for achieving successful discontinuation decreased by 56% per one-unit increase in Doppler sum score. Ultrasound could not predict successful tapering., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: To study if clinical, radiographic and MRI markers can predict MRI and radiographic damage progression and achievement of stringent remission in patients with established RA in clinical remission followed by a targeted treatment strategy., Methods: RA patients (DAS28-CRP <3.2, no swollen joints) receiving conventional synthetic DMARDs were randomized to conventional or MRI-targeted treat-to-target strategies with predefined algorithmic treatment escalations. Potentially predictive baseline variables were tested in multivariate logistic regression analyses., Results: In the 171 patients included, baseline MRI osteitis independently predicted progression in MRI erosion [odds ratio (OR) 1.13 (95% CI 1.06, 1.22)], joint space narrowing [OR 1.15 (95% CI 1.07, 1.24)] and combined damage [OR 1.23 (95% CI 1.13, 1.37)], while tenosynovitis independently predicted MRI erosion progression [OR 1.13 (95% CI 1.03, 1.25)]. A predictor of radiographic erosion progression was age, while gender predicted progression in joint space narrowing. Following an MRI treat-to-target strategy predicted stringent remission across all remission definitions: Clinical Disease Activity Index remission OR 2.94 (95% CI 1.25, 7.52), Simplified Disease Activity Index remission OR 2.50 (95% CI 1.01, 6.66), ACR/EULAR Boolean remission OR 5.47 (95% CI 2.33, 14.13). Similarly, low tender joint count and low patient visual analogue scale pain and global independently predicted achievement of more stringent remission., Conclusion: Baseline MRI osteitis and tenosynovitis were independent predictors of 2 year MRI damage progression in RA patients in clinical remission, while independent predictors of radiographic damage progression were age and gender. Following an MRI treat-to-target strategy, low scores of patient-reported outcomes and low tender joint count predicted achievement of stringent remission., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (https://clinicaltrials.gov), NCT01656278., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Importance: Whether using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to guide treatment in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) improves disease activity and slows joint damage progression is unknown., Objective: To determine whether an MRI-guided treat-to-target strategy vs a conventional clinical treat-to-target strategy improves outcomes in patients with RA in clinical remission., Design, Setting, and Participants: Two-year, randomized, multicenter trial conducted at 9 hospitals in Denmark. Two hundred patients with RA in clinical remission (disease activity score in 28 joints-C-reactive protein [DAS28-CRP] <3.2 and no swollen joints) were enrolled between April 2012 and June 2015. The final follow-up visit was April 2017., Interventions: Patients were randomly allocated (1:1) to an MRI-guided vs a conventional treat-to-target strategy. In the MRI-guided group, the treatment goal was absence of MRI bone marrow edema combined with clinical remission, defined as DAS28-CRP of 3.2 or less and no swollen joints. In the conventional group, the treatment goal was clinical remission., Main Outcomes and Measures: Co-primary outcomes were proportions of patients achieving DAS28-CRP remission (DAS28-CRP <2.6) and with no radiographic progression (no increase in total van der Heijde-modified Sharp score) at 24 months. Significance testing for the primary outcome was based on 1-sided testing. Secondary outcomes were clinical and MRI measures of disease activity, physical function, and quality of life., Results: Of 200 patients randomized (133 women [67%]; mean [SD] age, 61.6 [10.5] years; median baseline DAS28-CRP, 1.9 [interquartile range, 1.7-2.2]; van der Heijde-modified Sharp score, 18.0 [interquartile range, 7.0-42.5]), 76 patients (76%) in the MRI-guided group and 95 (95%) in the conventional group completed the study. Of these, 64 (85%) vs 83 (88%), respectively, reached the primary clinical end point (risk difference, -4.8% [1-sided 95% CI, -13.6% to + ∞; 1-sided P = .19]) and 49 (66%) vs 58 (62%), respectively, reached the primary radiographic end point (risk difference, 4.7% [1-sided 95% CI, -7.0% to + ∞; 1-sided P = .25). Of 10 key secondary end points, 8 were null and 2 showed statistically significant benefit for the MRI treat-to-target group. Seventeen patients (17%) in the MRI-guided treat-to-target group and 6 patients (6%) in the conventional treat-to-target group experienced serious adverse events., Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with RA in clinical remission, an MRI-guided treat-to-target strategy compared with a conventional treat-to-target strategy did not result in improved disease activity remission rates or reduce radiographic progression. These findings do not support the use of an MRI-guided strategy for treating patients with RA., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01656278.

Objectives: A cohort of routine care RA patients in sustained remission had biological DMARD (bDMARDs) tapered according to a treatment guideline. We studied: the proportion of patients whose bDMARD could be successfully tapered or discontinued; unwanted consequences of tapering/discontinuation; and potential baseline predictors of successful tapering and discontinuation., Methods: One-hundred-and-forty-three patients (91% receiving TNF inhibitor and 9% a non-TNF inhibitor) with sustained disease activity score (DAS28-CRP)⩽2.6 and no radiographic progression the previous year were included. bDMARD was reduced to two-thirds of standard dose at baseline, half after 16 weeks, and discontinued after 32 weeks. Patients who flared (defined as either DAS28-CRP ⩾ 2.6 and ΔDAS28-CRP ⩾ 1.2 from baseline, or erosive progression on X-ray and/or MRI) stopped tapering and were escalated to the previous dose level., Results: One-hundred-and-forty-one patients completed 2-year follow-up. At 2 years, 87 patients (62%) had successfully tapered bDMARDs, with 26 (18%) receiving two-thirds of standard dose, 39 (28%) half dose and 22 (16%) having discontinued; and 54 patients (38%) were receiving full dose. ΔDAS28-CRP0-2yrs was 0.1((-0.2)-0.4) (median (interquartile range)) and mean ΔTotal-Sharp-Score0-2yrs was 0.01(1.15)(mean(s.d.)). Radiographic progression was observed in nine patients (7%). Successful tapering was independently predicted by: ⩽1 previous bDMARD, male gender, low baseline MRI combined inflammation score or combined damage score. Negative IgM-RF predicted successful discontinuation., Conclusion: By implementing a clinical guideline, 62% of RA patients in sustained remission in routine care were successfully tapered, including 16% successfully discontinued at 2 years. Radiographic progression was rare. Maximum one bDMARDs, male gender, and low baseline MRI combined inflammation and combined damage scores were independent predictors for successful tapering.

Objectives: To determine possible differences in serious adverse effects among the 10 currently approved biological and targeted synthetic DMARDs (b/ts-DMARDs) for RA., Methods: Systematic review in bibliographic databases, trial registries and websites of regulatory agencies identified randomized trials of approved b/ts-DMARDs for RA. Network meta-analyses using mixed-effects Poisson regression models were conducted to calculate rate ratios for serious adverse events (SAEs) and deaths between each of the 10 drugs and control (i.e. no b/ts-DMARD treatment), based on subjects experiencing an event in relation to person-years. Confidence in the estimates was assessed by applying the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach (GRADE)., Results: A total of 117 trials (47 615 patients) were included. SAEs were more common with certolizumab compared with abatacept (rate ratio = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.18, 2.14), adalimumab (1.36, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.81), etanercept (1.60, 95% CI: 1.18, 2.17), golimumab (1.45, 95% CI: 1.00, 2.08), rituximab (1.63, 95% CI: 1.16, 2.30), tofacitinib (1.44, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.02) and control (1.45, 95% CI: 1.13, 1.87); and tocilizumab compared with abatacept (1.30, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.65), etanercept (1.31, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.67) and rituximab (1.34, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.78). No other comparisons were statistically significant. Accounting for study duration confirmed our findings for up to 6 months' treatment but not for longer-term treatment (6-24 months). No differences in mortality between b/ts-DMARDs and control were found. Based on the GRADE approach, confidence in the estimates was low due to lack of head-to-head comparison trials and imprecision in indirect estimates., Conclusion: Despite low confidence in the estimates, our analysis found potential differences in rates of SAEs. Our data suggest caution should be taken when deciding among available drugs., Systematic Review Registration Number: PROSPERO CRD42014014842., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com)