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Altay Prefecture, a typical arid region in northwestern China, has experienced the climate transition from warming-drying to warming-wetting since 1980s and has attracted widespread attention. Nonetheless, it is still unclear how climate change has influenced the distribution of vegetation in this region. In this paper, a reaction–diffusion model of the climate–vegetation system is proposed to study the impact of climate change (precipitation, temperature and carbon dioxide concentration) on vegetation patterns in Altay Prefecture. Our results indicate that the tendency of vegetation growth in Altay Prefecture improved gradually from 1985 to 2010. Under the current climate conditions, the increase of precipitation results in the change of vegetation pattern structures, and eventually vegetation coverage tends to be uniform. Moreover, we found that there exists an optimal temperature where the spot vegetation pattern structure remains stable. Furthermore, the increase in carbon dioxide concentration induces vegetation pattern transition. Based on four climate change scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we used the power law range (PLR) to predict the optimal scenario for the sustainable development of the vegetation ecosystem in Altay Prefecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and the change of climate variables will eventually have a great impact on vegetation cover and agricultural practices, especially in the arid area Xinjiang in China, whose agriculture and ecosystems are heavily vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used to study the vegetation growth and its response to climate change in Xinjiang. Firstly, two NDVI datasets (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) were merged through a pixel-wise regression analysis to obtain a long time series of NDVI data, and then, relationships between yearly NDVI and yearly climate variables, and monthly NDVI and monthly climate variables were extensively investigated for grassland and cropland in northern and southern Xinjiang, respectively. Results show the following: (1) there was an increasing trend in NDVI for both grassland and cropland in both northern and southern Xinjiang over the past decades and trends were significant except that for grassland in northern Xinjiang; (2) precipitation and evaporation were more important than temperature for grassland in northern Xinjiang, while precipitation and temperature were more important than evaporation for grassland in southern Xinjiang and cropland in both northern and southern Xinjiang; (3) NDVI was highly correlated with accumulated monthly precipitation instead of monthly precipitation, and there was a lagged effect of precipitation, temperature, and evaporation on NDVI change. However, lagged effects were only significant in specific months. The results could be helpful to agricultural practices; e.g., based on lagged effect of precipitation, irrigation in July is very important for crop growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to distinguish the relative role of climate change and human activities in vegetation dynamics has attracted increasing attention. However, most of the current studies concentrate on arid and semiarid regions, while the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation changes remain unclear in warm-humid regions. Based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, radiation) during 2001–2020, this study used the Theil–Sen median trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and residual trend analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation trends, the response of vegetation to climate variations, and the climatic and anthropogenic contributions to vegetation dynamics in the warm and humid Guangdong Province of south China. Results showed that the NDVI in most areas exhibited an increasing trend. Changes in climatic variables displayed different spatial variations which, however, were not significant in most areas. Vegetation responded diversely to climate change with temperature as the most important climatic factor for vegetation improvement in most areas, while precipitation was the dominant climatic factor in the southern edge region and radiation was the dominant climatic factor in the central and western regions. Vegetation in most areas was influenced by both climate change and human activities, but the contribution rate of human activities was commonly much higher than climate change. The findings of this study are expected to enhance our understanding of the relative climatic and anthropogenic contributions to vegetation changes in warm-humid regions and provide a scientific basis for future ecological policies and ecosystem management in highly urbanized regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether or not large-scale vegetation restoration will lead to a decrease in regional terrestrial water storage is a controversial topic. This study employed the Geodetector model, in conjunction with observed and satellite hydro-meteorological data, to detect the changes in terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) and to identify the contributions of climate change and vegetation greening across China during the years 1982–2019. The results revealed that: (1) during the period of 1982–2019, TWSA showed a downward trend in about two thirds of the country, with significant declines in North China, southeast Tibet, and northwest Xinjiang, and an upward trend in the remaining third of the country, with significant increases mainly in the Qaidam Basin, the Yangtze River, and the Songhua River; (2) the positive correlation between normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and TWSA accounts for 48.64% of the total vegetation area across China. In addition, the response of vegetation greenness lags behind the TWSA and precipitation, and the lag time was shorter in arid and semi-arid regions dominated by grasslands, and longer in relatively humid regions dominated by forests and savannas; (3) furthermore, TWSAs decreased with the increase in NDVI and evapotranspiration (ET) in arid and semi-arid areas, and increased with the rise in NDVI and ET in the humid regions. The Geodetector model was used to detect the effects of climate, vegetation, and human factors on TWSA. It is worth mentioning that NDVI, precipitation, and ET were some of the main factors affecting TWSA. Therefore, it is essential to implement rational ecological engineering to mitigate climate change's negative effects and maintain water resources' sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and human activities significantly affected environmental changes in drylands. However, the relative roles remain unclear regarding these factors' effects on environment changes in drylands. Herein, we analyzed vegetation change trends using remote-sensing datasets to determine the interactions of vegetation, climate, and anthropogenic activities in an arid region of China, Kubuqi Desert. Our study showed that 67.64% of the pixels of fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) increased in 2020 in comparison with those of 1986. The FVC exhibited a significant greening trend (0.0011/yr, p < 0.05) in 1986–2020 as a whole. This greening trend revealed two distinct periods separated by a turning point in 2001. There was no clear trend of FVC before 2001, and then there was a dramatically greening trend since 2001 in most regions of the study area. The increasing rate (0.0036/yr) in the later period was three times higher than the entire period. The accelerated increasing trend was due to the variable compound effects of climate and human activities. The correlation between FVC and precipitation was mainly positive, which outweighs the significantly negative correlation between vegetation and temperature. However, both climatic factors cannot well explain the trends of vegetation dynamics, implying a possible role for human activities. Generally, climate change and anthropogenic activities contributed 42.15% and 57.85% to the overall vegetation variations in 1986–2020. Specifically, the relative role of the two factors was vastly different in two distinct periods. Climate change led the dominant roles (58.68%) in the vegetation variations in 1986–2001, while anthropogenic activities dominated (86.79%) in driving vegetation recovery in the period after 2001. Due to the massive ecological conservation programs such as the Grain for Green Project launched in 2001, substantial deserts have been transformed into grasslands and forests. This analysis highlights the ecological policies largely responsible for vegetation restoration and provides references for ecological protection and sustainable development in eco-fragile ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important part of the global ecosystem, wetlands and their dynamics greatly influence regional eco-environment systems. To understand the distributions, change processes and temporal-spatial characteristics of the wetlands of the inland river basin in an arid region (Heihe River Basin, HRB), this paper employed multi-source remote sensing data to facilitate multi-temporal monitoring of the HRB wetland using a wetland information extraction method. First, we performed monitoring of these wetlands for the years 2000, 2007, 2011 and 2014; then, we analyzed the variation characteristics of the spatial-temporal dynamics of the wetlands in the HRB over the last 15 years via the landscape dynamic change model and the transformation matrix. In addition, we studied the possible driving mechanisms of these changes. The research results showed that the total area of the HRB wetlands had decreased by 2959.13 hectares in the last 15 years (Since 2000), and the annual average loss was 1.09%. The dynamics characterizing the HRB wetlands generally presented a trend of slow increase after an initial decrease, which can be classified into three stages. From 2000 to 2007, the total wetland area rapidly decreased; from 2007 to 2011, the area slowly decreased; and from 2011 to 2014, the area gradually increased. The dynamic changing processes characterizing the wetland resources were ascribed to a combination of natural processes and human activities. The main driving mechanisms of wetland dynamic changes include climatic conditions, upper reach water inflows, population, water resources, cultivated area, and policy. The findings of this study can served as reference and support for the conservation and management of wetland resources in the HRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation is a sensitive factor in marsh ecosystems, which can provide nesting sites, foraging areas, and hiding places for waterfowl and can affect their survival environment. The Jilin Momoge National Nature Reserve, which consists of large areas of marshes, is located in the semi-arid region of northeast China and is an important stopover site for the critically endangered species of the Siberian Crane (Grus leucogeranus). Global climate change, extreme droughts and floods, and large differences in evaporation and precipitation in this region can cause rapid vegetation succession. In recent years, increased grain production and river-lake connectivity projects carried out in this area to increase grain outputs and restore wetlands have caused significant changes in the hydrological and landscape patterns. Therefore, research on the response of variation trends in vegetation patterns to the main driving factors (climate change and human activities) is critical for the conservation of the Siberian Crane. Based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, we obtained and processed the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data of the study area during the peak summer vegetation period for each year from 1984 to 2020, estimated the annual vegetation cover using Maximum value composites (MVC) method and the image dichotomy method, calculated and analyzed the spatial and temporal trends of vegetation cover, explored the response of vegetation cover change in terms of climate change and human activities, and quantified the relative contribution of both. The results revealed that first, from the spatial and temporal changes, the average annual growth rate of regional vegetation was 0.002/a, and 71.14% of the study area was improved. The vegetation cover showed a trend of degradation and then recovery, in which the percentage of high vegetation cover area decreased from 51.22% (19842000) to 28.33% (2001-2005), and then recovered to 55.69% (2006-2020). Second, among climate change factors, precipitation was more correlated with the growth of vegetation in the study area than temperature, and the increase in precipitation during the growing season could promote the growth of marsh vegetation in the Momoge Reserve. Third, overall, human activities have contributed to the improvement of vegetation cover in the study area with the implementation of important ecological projects, such as the return of farmland to wetlands, the return of grazing to grass, and the connection of rivers and lakes. Fourth, climate change and human activities jointly drive vegetation change, but the contribution of human activities in both vegetation improvement and degradation areas (85.68% and 78.29%, respectively) is higher than that of climate change (14.32% and 21.71%, respectively), which is the main reason for vegetation improvement or degradation in the study area. The analysis of vegetation pattern change within an intensive time series in semi-arid regions can provide a reference and basis for studying the driving factors in regions with rapid changes in vegetation and hydrological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impacts and extent of both climate change and human activities on ecosystems is crucial to sustainable development. With low anti-interference ability, arid and semi-arid ecosystems are particularly sensitive to disturbances from both climate change and human activities. We investigated how and to what extent climate variation and human activities influenced major indicators that are related to ecosystem functions and conditions in the past decades in Xinjiang, a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. We analyzed the changing trends of evapotranspiration (ET), gross primary productivity (GPP) and leaf area index (LAI) derived from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite product and the Breathing Earth System Simulator (BESS) model in Xinjiang for different climate zones. We separated and quantified the contributions of climate forcing and human activities on the trends of the studied ecosystem indicators using the residual analysis method for different climate zones in Xinjiang. The results show that GPP and LAI increased and ET decreased from 2001 to 2015 in Xinjiang. Factors that dominate the changes in ecosystem indicators vary considerably across different climate zones. Precipitation plays a positive role in impacting vegetation indicators in arid and hyper-arid zones and temperature has a negative correlation with both GPP and LAI in hyper-arid zones in Xinjiang. Results based on residual analysis indicate that human activities could account for over 72% of variation in the changes in each ecosystem indicator. Human activities have large impacts on each vegetation indicator change in hyper-arid and arid zones and their relative contribution has a mean value of 79%. This study quantifies the roles of climate forcing and human activities in the changes in ecosystem indicators across different climate zones, suggesting that human activities largely influence ecosystem processes in the arid and semi-arid regions of Xinjiang in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and anthropogenic factors have significantly impacted hydrological regimes, especially in semiarid regions. Using the trend‐free pre‐whitening Mann–Kendall (TFPW‐MK) test and linear regression, trends of precipitation, temperature, runoff, and water balances from different spatiotemporal scales were analysed during the past sixty years in the Upper Yongding River Basin (UYRB). Based on the Choudhury‐Yang equation, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff variation were further quantified in five mountainous catchments, and the actual effects of climate change and human activities on the water balance in the whole UYRB were also discussed. The results suggest that the UYRB has become much warmer and drier. The lower annual precipitation and intensity in summer were directly attributed to runoff reductions. Intra‐annual scale analyses of meteorological, hydrological and biological responses helped the comprehensive interpretation of the runoff trends. Human activities, including agricultural irrigation, were the main causes for runoff reduction, especially in the middle and lower reaches, and the contribution of human activities increased gradually in recent decades. The water balance changed drastically temporally, with the precipitation being converted less to runoff and more to evaporated fractions, which was also due to the second order effects of climate change and vegetation improvement. It is suggested that low water‐consumption plant species and the related water‐saving techniques in agriculture and afforestation should be introduced for the sustainable development in the similar regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To combat desertification, an understanding of its current development is necessary, including that of causative factors associated with climate change and increasing human activity. Whereas, there is an ongoing debate surrounding impact factors for change in vegetation and desertification in arid regions. The present study assesses the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation change in the Ulan Buh Desert, northwest China. Driving factors for desertification were discussed using the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS NDVI) and SPOT Vegetation NDVI datasets, high-resolution satellite images, and meteorological and socioeconomic data in the period 1982–2018. The results show a trend of overall greening, with increasing trends at rates between 0.0008/year and 0.0013/year indicated by the two NDVI datasets and with a corresponding reduction in dune activity. The spatial variations of two NDVI datasets verified the significantly greening trend in the northern and southern areas of the desert. Human activity was observed to have impacted vegetation dynamics. It is predicted that the implementation of ecological projects will contribute to the restoration of vegetation during a warmer, wetter climate trend. However, the reduction of wind strength played a dominant role in vegetation greenness and dune stability in the Ulan Buh Desert. The present study revealed the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation variations and the driving factors for desertification in arid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]