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Infectious diseases of wildlife are typically studied using data on antibody and pathogen levels. In order to interpret these data, it is necessary to know the course of antibodies and pathogen levels after infection. Such data are typically collected using experimental infection studies in which host individuals are inoculated in the laboratory and sampled over an extended period, but because laboratory conditions are controlled and much less variable than natural conditions, the immune response and pathogen dynamics may differ. Here, we compared Morogoro arenavirus infection patterns between naturally and experimentally infected multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis). Longitudinal samples were collected during three months of bi-weekly trapping in Morogoro, Tanzania, and antibody titer and viral RNA presence were determined. The time of infection was estimated from these data using a recently developed Bayesian approach, which allowed us to assess whether the natural temporal patterns match the previously observed patterns in the laboratory. A good match was found for 52% of naturally infected individuals, while most of the mismatches can be explained by the presence of chronically infected individuals (35%), maternal antibodies (10%), and an antibody detection limit (25%). These results suggest that while laboratory data are useful for interpreting field samples, there can still be differences due to conditions that were not tested in the laboratory.

Many emerging infections are RNA virus spillovers from animal reservoirs. Reservoir identification is necessary for predicting the geographic extent of infection risk, but rarely are taxonomic levels below the animal species considered as reservoir, and only key circumstances in nature and methodology allow intrinsic virus-host associations to be distinguished from simple geographic (co-)isolation. We sampled and genetically characterized in detail a contact zone of two subtaxa of the rodent Mastomys natalensis in Tanzania. We find two distinct arenaviruses, Gairo and Morogoro virus, each spatially confined to a single M. natalensis subtaxon, only co-occurring at the contact zone's centre. Inter-subtaxon hybridization at this centre and a continuum of quality habitat for M. natalensis show that both viruses have the ecological opportunity to spread into the other substaxon's range, but do not, strongly suggesting host-intrinsic barriers. Such barriers could explain why human cases of another M. natalensis-borne arenavirus, Lassa virus, are limited to West Africa., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Despite its near pan-African range, the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis, carries the human pathogen Lassa virus only in West Africa, while the seemingly non-pathogenic arenaviruses Mopeia, Morogoro, and Luna have been detected in this semi-commensal rodent in Mozambique/Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Zambia, respectively. Here, we describe a novel arenavirus in M. natalensis from Gairo district of central Tanzania, for which we propose the name "Gairo virus". Surprisingly, the virus is not closely related with Morogoro virus that infects M. natalensis only 90km south of Gairo, but clusters phylogenetically with Mobala-like viruses that infect non-M. natalensis host species in Central African Republic and Ethiopia. Despite the evolutionary distance, Gairo virus shares basic ecological features with the other M. natalensis-borne viruses Lassa and Morogoro. Our data show that M. natalensis, carrying distantly related viruses even in the same geographical area, is a potent reservoir host for a variety of arenaviruses., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

To determine the specificity of Morogoro virus for its reservoir host, we studied its host range and genetic diversity in Tanzania. We found that 2 rodent species other than Mastomys natalensis mice carry arenaviruses. Analysis of 340 nt of the viral RNA polymerase gene showed sympatric occurrence of 3 distinct arenaviruses.

A serosurvey involving 2,520 small mammals from Tanzania identified a hot spot of arenavirus circulation in Morogoro. Molecular screening detected a new arenavirus in Natal multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis), Morogoro virus, related to Mopeia virus. Only a small percentage of mice carry Morogoro virus, although a large proportion shows specific antibodies.