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Rabies is a major issue for human and animal health in the Arctic, yet little is known about its epidemiology. In particular, there is an ongoing debate regarding how Arctic rabies persists in its primary reservoir host, the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), which exists in the ecosystem at very low population densities. To shed light on the mechanisms of rabies persistence in the Arctic, we built a susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model of rabies virus transmission in an Arctic fox population interacting with red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), a rabies host that is increasingly present in the Arctic. The model suggests that rabies cannot be maintained in resource-poor areas of the Arctic, characterized by low Arctic fox density, even in the presence of continuous reintroduction of the virus by infected Arctic foxes from neighbouring regions. However, in populations of relatively high Arctic fox density, rabies persists under conditions of higher transmission rate, prolonged infectious period and for a broad range of incubation periods. Introducing the strong cyclical dynamics of Arctic prey availability makes simulated rabies outbreaks less regular but more intense, with an onset that does not neatly track peaks in Arctic fox density. Finally, interaction between Arctic and red foxes increases the frequency and/or the intensity of rabies outbreaks in the Arctic fox population. Our work suggests that disruption of prey cycles and increasing interactions between Arctic and red foxes due to climate change and northern development may significantly change the epidemiology of rabies across the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An ABM was used to identify drivers of contact risk among Arctic foxes. • Broad-scale fox movement strategies were simulated using hidden Markov models. • Arctic fox migration and dispersal are drivers of contact risk. • Time spent in each behavior state of migration and dispersal affected contact rates. • Implications for Arctic rabies management were discussed. Arctic rabies is an ongoing threat to human populations and domestic animals inpolar regions, where Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) are the main reservoir hosts. Human-driven changes in resource availability are shifting the distribution of Arctic foxes and these changes may affect the risk of rabies transmission and spread. Our understanding of the effects of broad-scale movement strategies in Arctic foxes and spatial distribution of resources on contact patterns among Arctic foxes, and their consequences on the dynamics of rabies epidemiology remains limited, in part, due to the difficulty of obtaining contact data from such remote and expansive regions. In this perspective, we built a spatially explicit agent-based model coupled with hidden Markov models to explore how Arctic fox movement behavior, combined with Arctic fox population density, resource availability and rabies transmission dynamics, affects the risk of infectious contact between Arctic foxes across heterogeneous landscapes. The model was parameterized using a combination of unique field data collected in the Canadian High Arctic and published studies from other Arctic regions. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the effects of multiple model input parameters on contact rates among Arctic foxes. Our results showed that cumulative contact rates per fox were driven by predictors related to rabies transmission dynamics and fox carrying capacity, while unique contact rates per fox and unique infectious contact rates per rabid fox were best predicted by parameters associated with rabies transmission dynamics, fox movement behavior, and fox carrying capacity. Ultimately, our study provides new insights into the ecological drivers of rabies transmission and may inspire further research on modelling cost-effective rabies prevention strategies in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]