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The antiquity of human dispersal into Mediterranean islands and ensuing coastal adaptation have remained largely unexplored due to the prevailing assumption that the sea was a barrier to movement and that islands were hostile environments to early hunter-gatherers [J. F. Cherry, T. P. Leppard, J. Isl. Coast. Archaeol. 13 , 191-205 (2018), 10.1080/15564894.2016.1276489]. Using the latest archaeological data, hindcasted climate projections, and age-structured demographic models, we demonstrate evidence for early arrival (14,257 to 13,182 calendar years ago) to Cyprus and predicted that large groups of people (~1,000 to 1,375) arrived in 2 to 3 main events occurring within <100 y to ensure low extinction risk. These results indicate that the postglacial settlement of Cyprus involved only a few large-scale, organized events requiring advanced watercraft technology. Our spatially debiased and Signor-Lipps-corrected estimates indicate rapid settlement of the island within <200 y, and expansion to a median of 4,000 to 5,000 people (0.36 to 0.46 km -2 ) in <11 human generations (<300 y). Our results do not support the hypothesis of inaccessible and inhospitable islands in the Mediterranean for pre-agropastoralists, agreeing with analogous conclusions for other parts of the world [M. I. Bird et al. , Sci. Rep. 9 , 8220 (2019), 10.1038/s41598-019-42946-9]. Our results also highlight the need to revisit these questions in the Mediterranean and test their validity with new technologies, field methods, and data. By applying stochastic models to the Mediterranean region, we can place Cyprus and large islands in general as attractive and favorable destinations for paleolithic peoples., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

Predictive models have become an integral part of archaeological research, particularly in the discovery of new archaeological sites. In this paper, we apply predictive modeling to map high potential Pleistocene archaeological locales on the island of Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean. The model delineates landscape characteristics that denote areas with high potential to unearth Pleistocene archaeology while at the same time highlighting localities that should be excluded. The predictive model was employed in surface surveys to systematically access high probability locales on Cyprus. A number of newly identified localities suggests that the true density of mobile hunter-gatherer sites on Cyprus is seriously underestimated in current narratives. By adding new data to this modest corpus of early insular sites, we are able to contribute to debates regarding island colonisation and the role of coastal environments in human dispersals to new territories., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Seaborne movement underpins frontier research in prehistoric archaeology, including water-crossings in the context of human dispersals, and island colonisation. Yet, it also controls the degree of interaction between locations, which in turn is essential for investigating the properties of maritime networks. The onset of the Holocene (circa 12,000 years ago) is a critical period for understanding the origins of early visitors/inhabitants to the island of Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean in connection with the spread of Neolithic cultures in the region. The research undertaken in this work exemplifies the synergies between archaeology, physical sciences and geomatics, towards providing novel insights on the feasibility of drift-induced seaborne movement and the corresponding trip duration between Cyprus and coastal regions on the surrounding mainland. The overarching objective is to support archaeological inquiry regarding the possible origins of these visitors/inhabitants—Anatolia and/or the Levant being two suggested origins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]