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A hybrid model integrating chaos theory, support vector machine (SVM) and the difference evolution grey wolf optimization (DEGWO) algorithm is developed to analyze and predict dam deformation. Firstly, the chaotic characteristics of the dam deformation time series will be identified, mainly using the Lyapunov exponent method, the correlation dimension method and the kolmogorov entropy method. Secondly, the hybrid model is established for dam deformation forecasting. Taking SVM as the core, the deformation time series is reconstructed in phase space to determine the input variables of SVM, and the GWO algorithm is improved to realize the optimization of SVM parameters. Prior to this, the effectiveness of DEGWO algorithm based on the fusion of the difference evolution (DE) and GWO algorithm has been verified by 15 sets of test functions in CEC 2005. Finally, take the actual monitoring displacement of Jinping I super-high arch dam as examples. The engineering application examples show that the PSR-SVM-DEGWO model established performs better in terms of fitting and prediction accuracy compared with existing models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deformation prediction of the dam in the initial stage of operation is very important for the safety of high dams. A hybrid model integrating chaos theory, support vector machine (SVM), and an improved Grey Wolf Optimization (IGWO) algorithm is developed for deformation prediction of dam in the initial operation period. Firstly, the chaotic characteristics of the dam deformation time series will be identified, mainly using the Lyapunov exponent method, the correlation dimension method, and the Kolmogorov entropy method. Secondly, the SVM-IGWO model based on phase space reconstruction (PSR) is established for deformation forecasting of the dam in the initial operation period. Taking SVM as the core, the deformation time series is reconstructed in phase space to determine the input variables of SVM and the GWO algorithm is improved to realize the optimization of SVM parameters. Finally, take the actual monitoring displacement of Xiluodu super-high arch dam as an example. The engineering application example shows that, compared with the existing models, the prediction accuracy of the PSR-SVM-IGWO model established in this paper is improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]