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Simpler, shorter, safer and more effective treatments for tuberculosis that are easily accessible to all people with tuberculosis are desperately needed. In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) developed target regimen profiles for the treatment of tuberculosis to make drug developers aware of both the important features of treatment regimens, and patient and programmatic needs at the country level. In view of recent ground-breaking advances in tuberculosis treatment, WHO has revised and updated these regimen profiles. We used a similar process as for the 2016 profiles, including a baseline treatment landscape analysis, an initial stakeholder survey, modelling studies estimating the impact and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis treatment regimens, and an extensive stakeholder consultation. We developed target regimen profiles for the treatment of rifampicin-susceptible and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis, as well as a pan-tuberculosis regimen that would be appropriate for patients with any type of tuberculosis. We describe the revised target regimen profile characteristics, with specific minimal and optimal targets to be met, rationale and justification, and aspects relevant to all target regimen profiles (drug susceptibility testing, adherence and forgiveness, treatment strategies, post-tuberculosis lung disease, and cost and access considerations). We discuss the trade-offs of proposed characteristics for decision-making at developmental or operational levels. We expect that, following these target regimen profile revisions, tuberculosis treatment developers will produce regimens that are quality-assured, affordable and widely available, and that meet the needs of affected populations., ((c) 2024 The authors; licensee World Health Organization.)

New tuberculosis (TB) drugs with little existing antimicrobial resistance enable a pan-TB treatment regimen, intended for universal use without prior drug-susceptibility testing. However, widespread use of such a regimen could contribute to an increasing prevalence of antimicrobial resistance, potentially rendering the pan-TB regimen ineffective or driving clinically problematic patterns of resistance. We developed a model of multiple sequential TB patient cohorts to compare treatment outcomes between continued use of current standards of care (guided by rifampin-susceptibility testing) and a hypothetical pan-TB approach. A pan-TB regimen that met current target profiles was likely to initially outperform the standard of care; however, a rising prevalence of transmitted resistance to component drugs could make underperformance likely among subsequent cohorts. Although the pan-TB approach led to an increased prevalence of resistance to novel drugs, it was unlikely to cause accumulation of concurrent resistance to novel drugs and current first-line drugs.

Background: With numerous trials investigating novel drug combinations to treat tuberculosis, we aimed to evaluate the extent to which future improvements in tuberculosis treatment regimens could offset potential increases in drug costs., Methods: In this modelling analysis, we used an ingredients-based approach to estimate prices at which novel regimens for rifampin-susceptible and rifampin-resistant tuberculosis treatment would be cost-neutral or cost-effective compared with standards of care in India, the Philippines, and South Africa. We modelled regimens meeting targets set in the WHO's 2023 Target Regimen Profiles (TRPs). Our decision-analytical model tracked cohorts of adults initiating rifampin-susceptible or rifampin-resistant tuberculosis treatment, simulating their health outcomes and costs accumulated during and following treatment under standard-of-care and novel regimen scenarios. Price thresholds included short-term cost-neutrality (considering only savings accrued during treatment), medium-term cost-neutrality (additionally considering savings from averted retreatments and secondary cases), and cost-effectiveness (incorporating willingness-to-pay for improved health outcomes)., Findings: Total medium-term costs per person treated using standard-of-care regimens were estimated at US$450 (95% uncertainty interval 310-630) in India, $560 (350-860) in the Philippines, and $730 (530-1090) in South Africa for rifampin-susceptible tuberculosis (current drug costs $46) and $2100 (1590-2810) in India, $2610 (2090-3280) in the Philippines, and $3790 (3090-4630) in South Africa for rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (current drug costs $432). A rifampin-susceptible tuberculosis regimen meeting the optimal targets defined in the TRPs could be cost-neutral in the short term at drug costs of $140 (90-210) per full course in India, $230 (130-380) in the Philippines, and $280 (180-460) in South Africa. For rifampin-resistant tuberculosis, short-term cost-neutral thresholds were higher with $930 (720-1230) in India, $1180 (980-1430) in the Philippines, and $1480 (1230-1780) in South Africa. Medium-term cost-neutral prices were approximately $50-100 higher than short-term cost-neutral prices for rifampin-susceptible tuberculosis and $250-550 higher for rifampin-resistant tuberculosis. Health system cost-neutral prices that excluded patient-borne costs were 45-70% lower (rifampin-susceptible regimens) and 15-50% lower (rifampin-resistant regimens) than the cost-neutral prices that included patient costs. Cost-effective prices were substantially higher. Shorter duration was the most important driver of medium-term savings with novel regimens, followed by ease of adherence., Interpretation: Improved tuberculosis regimens, particularly shorter regimens or those that facilitate better adherence, could reduce overall costs, potentially offsetting higher prices., Funding: WHO., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests TSR, CL, DWD, and EAK report funding from WHO. TSR and EAK report funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.)

Background: Challenges accessing nearby health facilities may be a barrier to initiating and completing tuberculosis (TB) treatment. We aimed to evaluate whether distance from residence to health facility chosen for treatment is associated with TB treatment outcomes., Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all patients initiating TB treatment at six health facilities in Kampala from 2014 to 2016. We investigated associations between distance to treating facility and unfavorable TB treatment outcomes (death, loss to follow up, or treatment failure) using multivariable Poisson regression., Results: Unfavorable treatment outcomes occurred in 20% (339/1691) of TB patients. The adjusted relative risk (aRR) for unfavorable treatment outcomes (compared to treatment success) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70, 1.07) for patients living ≥2 km from the facility compared to those living closer. When we separately compared each type of unfavorable treatment outcome to favorable outcomes, those living ≥2 km from the facility had increased risk of death (aRR 1.42 [95%CI 0.99, 2.03]) but decreased risk for loss to follow-up (aRR 0.57 [95%CI 0.41, 0.78]) than those living within 2 km., Conclusions: Distance from home residence to TB treatment facility is associated with increased risk of death but decreased risk of loss to follow up. Those who seek care further from home may have advanced disease, but once enrolled may be more likely to remain in treatment.

Objectives: Tuberculosis preventive therapy for people living with HIV is effective, widely recommended, and increasingly prescribed, but completion rates are less than ideal, and adherence is not typically monitored. We sought to quantify adherence to isoniazid preventive therapy using a urine metabolite assay., Design: Two cross-sectional surveys., Setting: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2008-2009; and Northwest Province, South Africa, 2018-2019., Participants: Two hundred and three Brazilian and 93 South African patients attending HIV clinics with active prescriptions for isoniazid preventive therapy MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:: Self-reported isoniazid adherence, paired with semiquantitative measurement of urine isoniazid metabolites., Results: By self-report, 90% of patients [95% confidence interval (CI) 86-93%] reported having taken a dose of isoniazid on the day of enrollment or the preceding day, and 91% (95% CI 87-94%) reported missing an average of one dose or fewer per week. By urine testing, only 65% (95% CI 59-70%) of all patients, and 69% (95% CI 63-74%) of those who reported having taken isoniazid on the current or preceding day, had detectable urine metabolites (expected in 95% of patients at 24 h). Longer time since starting preventive therapy was independently associated with a negative urine test for isoniazid metabolites (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.11 per month of isoniazid, 95% CI 1.05-1.18)., Conclusion: Adherence to isoniazid preventive therapy among patients with HIV in Brazil and South Africa is inadequate, is overestimated by self-report, and declines with time on treatment. Shorter regimens for TB preventive therapy may improve adherence and completion, but adherence support for all patients may be necessary.

Background: Regimens that could treat both rifampin-resistant (RR) and rifampin-susceptible tuberculosis (TB) while shortening the treatment duration have reached late-stage clinical trials. Decisions about whether and how to implement such regimens will require an understanding of their likely clinical impact and how this impact depends on local epidemiology and implementation strategy., Methods: A Markov state-transition model of 100,000 representative South African adults with TB was used to simulate implementation of the regimen BPaMZ (bedaquiline, pretomanid, moxifloxacin, and pyrazinamide), either for RR-TB only or universally for all patients. Patient outcomes, including cure rates, time with active TB, and time on treatment, were compared to outcomes under current care. Sensitivity analyses varied the drug-resistance epidemiology, rifampin susceptibility testing practices, and regimen efficacy., Results: Using BPaMZ exclusively for RR-TB increased the proportion of all RR-TB that was cured by initial treatment from 60 ± 1% to 67 ± 1%. Expanding use of BPaMZ to all patients increased cure of RR-TB to 89 ± 1% and cure of all TB from 87.3 ± 0.1% to 89.5 ± 0.1%, while shortening treatment by 1.9 months/person. In sensitivity analyses, reducing the coverage of rifampin susceptibility testing resulted in lower projected proportions of patients cured under all regimen scenarios (current care, RR-only BPaMZ, and universal BPaMZ), compared to the proportions projected using South Africa's high coverage; however, this reduced coverage resulted in greater expected incremental benefits of universal BPaMZ implementation, both when compared to RR-only BPaMZ implementation and when compared to to current care under the same low rifampin susceptibility testing coverage. In settings with higher RR-TB prevalence, the benefits of BPaMZ were magnified both for RR-specific and universal BPaMZ implementation., Conclusions: Novel regimens such as BPaMZ could improve RR-TB outcomes and shorten treatment for all patients, particularly with universal use. Decision-makers weighing early options for implementing such regimens at scale will want to consider the expected impact on patient outcomes and on the burden of treatment in their local context.

Objective: Both isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduce tuberculosis risk in individuals living with HIV. We sought to estimate the broader, population-wide impact of providing a pragmatically implemented 12-month IPT regimen to ART recipients in a high-burden community., Design: Dynamic transmission model of a tuberculosis (TB)-HIV epidemic, calibrated to site-specific, historical epidemiologic and clinical trial data from Khayelitsha, South Africa., Methods: We projected the 5-year impact of delivering a 12-month IPT regimen community-wide to 85% of new ART initiators and 15%/year of those already on ART, accounting for IPT-attributable reductions in TB infection, progression, and transmission. We also evaluated scenarios of continuously-delivered IPT, ongoing ART scale-up, and lower tuberculosis incidence., Results: Under historical (early 2010) ART coverage, this ART-linked IPT intervention prevented one tuberculosis case per 18 [95% credible interval (CrI) 11-29] people treated. It lowered TB incidence by a projected 23% (95% CrI 14-30%) among people receiving ART, and by 5.2% (95% CrI 2.9-8.7%) in the total population. Continuous IPT reduced the number needed to treat to prevent one case of TB to 10 (95% CrI 7-16), though it required 74% more person-years of therapy (95% CrI 64-94%) to prevent one TB case, relative to 12-month therapy. Under expanding ART coverage, the tuberculosis incidence reduction achieved by 12-month IPT grew to 7.6% (95% CrI 4.3-12.6%). Effect sizes were similar in a simulated setting of lower TB incidence., Conclusions: IPT in conjunction with ART reduces tuberculosis incidence among those who receive therapy and has additional impact on tuberculosis transmission in the population.

A novel, shorter-course regimen for treating multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis was recently recommended by the World Health Organization. However, the most appropriate use of drug susceptibility testing (DST) to support this regimen is less clear. Implementing countries must therefore often choose between using a standardized regimen despite high levels of underlying drug resistance or require more stringent DST prior to treatment initiation. The former carries a high likelihood of exposing patients to de facto monotherapy with a critical drug class (fluoroquinolones), whereas the latter could exclude large groups of patients from their most effective treatment option. We discuss the implications of this dilemma and argue for an approach that will integrate DST into the delivery of any novel antimicrobial regimen, without excessively stringent requirements. Such guidance could make the novel MDR tuberculosis regimen available to most patients while reducing the risk of generating additional drug resistance.

Background: In 2013, approximately 480,000 people developed active multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), while only 97,000 started MDR-TB treatment. We sought to estimate the impact of improving access to MDR-TB diagnosis and treatment, under multiple diagnostic algorithm and treatment regimen scenarios, on ten-year projections of MDR-TB incidence and mortality., Methods: We constructed a dynamic transmission model of an MDR-TB epidemic in an illustrative East/Southeast Asian setting. Using approximate Bayesian computation, we investigated a wide array of potential epidemic trajectories consistent with current notification data and known TB epidemiology., Results: Despite an overall projected decline in TB incidence, data-consistent simulations suggested that MDR-TB incidence is likely to rise between 2015 and 2025 under continued 2013 treatment practices, although with considerable uncertainty (median 17% increase, 95% Uncertainty Range [UR] -38% to +137%). But if, by 2017, all identified active TB patients with previously-treated TB could be tested for drug susceptibility, and 85% of those with MDR-TB could initiate MDR-appropriate treatment, then MDR-TB incidence in 2025 could be reduced by 26% (95% UR 4-52%) relative to projections under continued current practice. Also expanding this drug-susceptibility testing and appropriate MDR-TB treatment to treatment-naïve as well as previously-treated TB cases, by 2020, could reduce MDR-TB incidence in 2025 by 29% (95% UR 6-55%) compared to continued current practice. If this diagnosis and treatment of all MDR-TB in known active TB cases by 2020 could be implemented via a novel second-line regimen with similar effectiveness and tolerability as current first-line therapy, a 54% (95% UR 20-74%) reduction in MDR-TB incidence compared to current-practice projections could be achieved by 2025., Conclusions: Expansion of diagnosis and treatment of MDR-TB, even using current sub-optimal second-line regimens, is expected to significantly decrease MDR-TB incidence at the population level. Focusing MDR diagnostic efforts on previously-treated cases is an efficient first-step approach.

Background: In May, 2016, WHO endorsed a 9 month regimen for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis that is cheaper and potentially more effective than the conventional, longer (20-24 month) therapy. We aimed to investigate the population-level implications of scaling up this new regimen., Methods: In this population modelling analysis, we developed a dynamic transmission model to simulate the introduction of this short-course regimen as an instantaneous switch in 2016. We projected the corresponding percentage reduction in the incidence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis by 2024 compared with continued use of longer therapy. In the primary analysis in a representative southeast Asian setting, we assumed that the short-course regimen would double treatment access (through savings in resources or capacity) and achieve long-term efficacy at levels seen in preliminary cohort studies. We then did extensive sensitivity analyses to explore a range of alternative scenarios., Findings: Under the optimistic assumptions in the primary analysis, the incidence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in 2024 would be 3·3 (95% uncertainty range 2·2-5·6) per 100 000 population with the short-course regimen and 4·3 (2·9-7·6) per 100 000 population with continued use of longer therapy-ie, the short-course regimen could reduce incidence by 23% (10-38). Incidence would be reduced by 14% (4-28) if the new regimen affected only treatment effectiveness and by 11% (3-24) if it affected only treatment availability. Under more pessimistic assumptions, the short-course regimen would have minimal effect and even potential for harm-eg, when 30% of patients are ineligible for the new regimen because of second-line drug resistance, we projected a change in incidence of -2% (-20 to +28). The new regimen's effect was greater in settings with more ongoing transmission of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, but results were otherwise similar across settings with different levels of tuberculosis incidence and prevalence of multidrug resistance., Interpretation: The short-course regimen has potential to substantially lessen the multidrug-resistant tuberculosis epidemic, but this effect depends on its long-term efficacy, its ability to expand treatment access, and the role of second-line drug resistance., Funding: US National Institutes of Health and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Treatment failure and resistance amplification are common among patients with rifampin-resistant tuberculosis (TB). Drug susceptibility testing (DST) for second-line drugs is recommended for these patients, but logistical difficulties have impeded widespread implementation of second-line DST in many settings. To provide a quantitative perspective on the decision to scale up second-line DST, we synthesize literature on the prevalence of second-line drug resistance, the expected clinical and epidemiologic benefits of using second-line DST to ensure that patients with rifampin-resistant TB receive effective regimens, and the costs of implementing (or not implementing) second-line DST for all individuals diagnosed with rifampin-resistant TB. We conclude that, in most settings, second-line DST could substantially improve treatment outcomes for patients with rifampin-resistant TB, reduce transmission of drug-resistant TB, prevent amplification of drug resistance, and be affordable or even cost-saving. Given the large investment made in each patient treated for rifampin-resistant TB, these payoffs would come at relatively small incremental cost. These anticipated benefits likely justify addressing the real challenges faced in implementing second-line DST in most high-burden settings., (Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Novel drug regimens are needed for tuberculosis (TB) treatment. New regimens aim to improve on characteristics such as duration, efficacy, and safety profile, but no single regimen is likely to be ideal in all respects. By linking these regimen characteristics to a novel regimen's ability to reduce TB incidence and mortality, we sought to prioritize regimen characteristics from a population-level perspective., Methods and Findings: We developed a dynamic transmission model of multi-strain TB epidemics in hypothetical populations reflective of the epidemiological situations in India (primary analysis), South Africa, the Philippines, and Brazil. We modeled the introduction of various novel rifampicin-susceptible (RS) or rifampicin-resistant (RR) TB regimens that differed on six characteristics, identified in consultation with a team of global experts: (1) efficacy, (2) duration, (3) ease of adherence, (4) medical contraindications, (5) barrier to resistance, and (6) baseline prevalence of resistance to the novel regimen. We compared scale-up of these regimens to a baseline reflective of continued standard of care. For our primary analysis situated in India, our model generated baseline TB incidence and mortality of 157 (95% uncertainty range [UR]: 113-187) and 16 (95% UR: 9-23) per 100,000 per year at the time of novel regimen introduction and RR TB incidence and mortality of 6 (95% UR: 4-10) and 0.6 (95% UR: 0.3-1.1) per 100,000 per year. An optimal RS TB regimen was projected to reduce 10-y TB incidence and mortality in the India-like scenario by 12% (95% UR: 6%-20%) and 11% (95% UR: 6%-20%), respectively, compared to current-care projections. An optimal RR TB regimen reduced RR TB incidence by an estimated 32% (95% UR: 18%-46%) and RR TB mortality by 30% (95% UR: 18%-44%). Efficacy was the greatest determinant of impact; compared to a novel regimen meeting all minimal targets only, increasing RS TB treatment efficacy from 94% to 99% reduced TB mortality by 6% (95% UR: 1%-13%, half the impact of a fully optimized regimen), and increasing the efficacy against RR TB from 76% to 94% lowered RR TB mortality by 13% (95% UR: 6%-23%). Reducing treatment duration or improving ease of adherence had smaller but still substantial impact: shortening RS TB treatment duration from 6 to 2 mo lowered TB mortality by 3% (95% UR: 1%-6%), and shortening RR TB treatment from 20 to 6 mo reduced RR TB mortality by 8% (95% UR: 4%-13%), while reducing nonadherence to the corresponding regimens by 50% reduced TB and RR TB mortality by 2% (95% UR: 1%-4%) and 6% (95% UR: 3%-10%), respectively. Limitations include sparse data on key model parameters and necessary simplifications to model structure and outcomes., Conclusions: In designing clinical trials of novel TB regimens, investigators should consider that even small changes in treatment efficacy may have considerable impact on TB-related incidence and mortality. Other regimen improvements may still have important benefits for resource allocation and outcomes such as patient quality of life., Competing Interests: This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health 5T32-AI007291-25 (www.nih.gov) and by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation work order 10 (www.gatesfoundation.org). The NIH had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, or decision to publish. TF and CB are employees of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and contributed as coauthors to framing of the study and review of the manuscript prior to publication; TF and CB did not have any role in the decision to fund this grant.

Background: Diagnosis of drug resistance and timely initiation of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis therapy are essential to reduce transmission and improve patient outcomes. We sought to determine whether implementation of the rapid MTBDRplus diagnostic shortened the time from specimen collection to patient MDR tuberculosis therapy initiation., Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of 197 MDR tuberculosis patients treated at Brewelskloof, a rural tuberculosis hospital in Western Cape Province, South Africa, between 2007 and 2011., Results: Eighty-nine patients (45%) were tested using conventional liquid culture and drug susceptibility testing (DST) on solid medium and 108 (55%) were tested using the MTBDRplus assay after positive acid-fast bacilli or culture. Median time from sample taken to therapy initiation was reduced from 80 days (interquartile range [IQR] 62-100) for conventional DST to 55 days (IQR 37.5-78) with the MTBDRplus. Although the laboratory processing time declined significantly, operational delays persisted both in the laboratory and the clinical infrastructure for getting patients started on treatment. In multivariate analysis, patients tested using the MTBDRplus test had a reduced risk of starting treatment 60 days or more after sputum collection of 0.52 (P < .0001) compared with patients tested with culture-based DST, after adjustment for smear status and site of disease., Conclusions: Use of MTBDRplus significantly reduced time to MDR tuberculosis treatment initiation. However, DST reporting to clinics was delayed by more than 1 week due, in part, to laboratory operational delays, including dependence on smear and culture positivity prior to MTBDRplus performance. In addition, once MDR tuberculosis was reported, delays in contacting patients and initiating therapy require improvements in clinical infrastructure.