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Background: Clinical guidelines recommend immediate initiation of combined antiretroviral therapy for all HIV-positive individuals. However, those guidelines are based on trials of relatively young participants., Methods: We included HIV-positive antiretroviral therapy-naive, AIDS-free individuals aged 50-70 years after 2004 in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration. We used the parametric g-formula to estimate the 5-year risk of all-cause and non-AIDS mortality under (1) immediate initiation at baseline and initiation at CD4 count, (2) <500 cells/mm, and (3) <350 cells/mm. Results were presented separately for the general HIV population and for a US Veterans cohort with high mortality., Results: The study included 9596 individuals (28% US Veterans) with median (interquantile range) age of 55 (52-60) years and CD4 count of 336 (182-513) at baseline. The 5-year risk of all-cause mortality was 0.40% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.10 to 0.71) lower for the general HIV population and 1.61% (95% CI: 0.79 to 2.67) lower for US Veterans when comparing immediate initiation vs initiation at CD4 <350 cells/mm. The 5-year risk of non-AIDS mortality was 0.17% (95% CI: -0.07 to 0.43) lower for the general HIV population and 1% (95% CI: 0.31 to 2.00) lower for US Veterans when comparing immediate initiation vs initiation at CD4 <350 cells/mm., Conclusions: Immediate initiation seems to reduce all-cause and non-AIDS mortality in patients aged 50-70 years.

Background: The length of time that people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with viral load suppression will be able to continue before developing viral rebound is unknown. We aimed to investigate the rate of first viral rebound in people that have achieved initial suppression with ART, to determine factors associated with viral rebound, and to use these estimates to predict long-term durability of viral suppression., Methods: The UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Study is an ongoing multicentre cohort study that brings together in a standardised format data on people with HIV attending clinics around the UK. We included participants who started ART with three or more drugs and who had achieved viral suppression (≤50 copies per mL) by 9 months after the start of ART (baseline). Viral rebound was defined as the first single viral load of more than 200 copies per mL or treatment interruption (for ≥1 month). We investigated factors associated with viral rebound with Poisson regression. These results were used to calculate the rate of viral rebound according to several key factors, including age, calendar year at start of ART, and time since baseline., Results: Of the 16 101 people included, 4519 had a first viral rebound over 58 038 person-years (7·8 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 7·6-8·0). Of the 4519 viral rebounds, 3105 (69%) were defined by measurement of a single viral load of more than 200 copies per mL, and 1414 (31%) by a documented treatment interruption. The rate of first viral rebound declined substantially over time until 7 years from baseline. The other factors associated with viral rebound were current age at follow-up and calendar year at ART initiation (p<0·0001) and HIV risk group (p<0·0001); higher pre-ART CD4 count (p=0·0008) and pre-ART viral load (p=0·0003) were associated with viral rebound in the multivariate analysis only. For 1322 (29%) of the 3105 people with observed viral rebound, the next viral load value after rebound was 50 copies per mL or less with no regimen change. For HIV-positive men who have sex with men, our estimates suggest that the probability of first viral rebound reaches a plateau of 1·4% per year after 45 years of age, and 1·0% when accounting for the fact that 29% of viral rebounds are temporary elevations., Interpretation: A substantial proportion of people on ART will not have viral rebound over their lifetime, which has implications for people with HIV and the planning of future drug development., Funding: UK Medical Research Council., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: The objectives of this analysis were to investigate predictors of progression, stabilization or improvement in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) after development of chronic renal impairment (CRI) in HIV-positive individuals., Design: Prospective observational study., Methods: The Data Collection on Adverse events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study participants progressing to CRI defined as confirmed, at least 3 months apart, and eGFR 70 ml/min per 1.73 m or less were included in the analysis. The median of all eGFRs measured 24-36 months post-CRI was compared with the median eGFR defining CRI, and changes were grouped into improvement (>+10 ml/min per 1.73 m), stabilization (-10 to +10 ml/min per 1.73 m) and progression (<-10 ml/min per 1.73 m). Adjusted polynomial regression models assessed odds of better eGFR outcomes after CRI, assuming that eGFR improvement is better than stabilization which in turn is better than progression., Results: Of 2006 individuals developing CRI, 21% subsequently improved eGFR, 67% stabilized and 12% progressed. Individuals remaining on tenofovir (TDF) or atazanavir boosted with ritonavir (ATV/r) 24 months post-CRI had worse eGFR outcomes compared with those unexposed [TDF: 0.47 (0.35-0.63) and ATV/r: 0.63 (0.48-0.82)]. Individuals off TDF for 12-24 months [0.75 (0.50-1.13)] or off ATV/r for more than 12 months [1.17 (0.87-1.57)] had similar eGFR outcomes as those unexposed to these antiretrovirals. Older age, hypertension, later date of CRI and diabetes were associated with worse eGFR outcomes., Conclusion: Current TDF and ATV/r use after a diagnosis of CRI was associated with worse eGFR outcomes. In contrast, TDF and ATV/r discontinuation lead to similar longer term eGFR outcomes as in those unexposed, suggesting that these drug-associated eGFR declines may be halted or reversed after their cessation.

Objectives: The aim of this work was to provide a reference for the CD4 T-cell count response in the early months after the initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in HIV-1-infected patients., Methods: All patients in the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) cohort who were aged ≥ 18 years and started cART for the first time between 1 January 2005 and 1 January 2010 and who had at least one available measurement of CD4 count and a viral load ≤ 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL at 6 months (± 3 months) after cART initiation were included in the study. Unadjusted and adjusted references curves and predictions were obtained using quantile regressions., Results: A total of 28 992 patients were included in the study. The median CD4 T-cell count at treatment initiation was 249 [interquartile range (IQR) 150, 336] cells/μL. The median observed CD4 counts at 6, 9 and 12 months were 382 (IQR 256, 515), 402 (IQR 274, 543) and 420 (IQR 293, 565) cells/μL. The two main factors explaining the variation of CD4 count at 6 months were AIDS stage and CD4 count at cART initiation. A CD4 count increase of ≥ 100 cells/mL is generally required in order that patients stay 'on track' (i.e. with a CD4 count at the same percentile as when they started), with slightly higher gains required for those starting with CD4 counts in the higher percentiles. Individual predictions adjusted for factors influencing CD4 count were more precise., Conclusions: Reference curves aid the evaluation of the immune response early after antiretroviral therapy initiation that leads to viral control., (© 2016 British HIV Association.)

Objective: The objective of this study is to assess the risk of viral rebound in postpartum women on suppressive combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)., Methods: Using data from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) study and the UK and Ireland National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood (NSHPC), women with HIV-RNA 50 copies/ml or less at delivery in 2006-2011, who started life-long cART during pregnancy (n = 321) or conceived on cART (n = 618), were matched by age, duration on cART and time period, with at least one control (non-postpartum). The cumulative probability of viral rebound (HIV-RNA >200 copies/ml) was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis; adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for the 0-3 and 3-12 months postdelivery (cases)/pseudo-delivery (controls) were calculated in Cox proportional hazards models., Results: In postpartum women who conceived on cART, 5.9% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 4.0-7.7] experienced viral rebound by 3 months, and 2.2% (1.4-3.0%) of their controls. The risk of viral rebound was higher in postpartum women than in controls during the first 3 months [aHR 2.63 (1.58-4.39)] but not during the 3-12 months postdelivery/pseudo-delivery. In postpartum women who started cART during pregnancy, 27% (22-32%) experienced viral rebound by 3 months, and 3.0% (1.6-4.4%) of their controls. The risk of viral rebound was higher in postpartum women than in controls during both postdelivery/pseudo-delivery periods [<3 months: aHR 6.63 (3.58-12.29); 3-12 months: aHR 4.05 (2.03-8.09)]., Conclusion: In women on suppressive cART, the risk of viral rebound is increased following delivery, especially in the first 3 months, which may be related to reduced adherence, indicating the need for additional adherence support for postpartum women.

Objectives: To describe the spectrum of renal tubular disease (RTD) in HIV-positive patients and its association with exposure to antiretroviral therapy (ART)., Design: Review of 265 consecutive renal biopsies from HIV-positive patients attending eight clinics in the United Kingdom between 2000 and 2012., Methods: We described the clinical characteristics of patients with RTD and compared current/recent exposure (at the time of, or up to 3 months prior to the date of biopsy) to potentially nephrotoxic ART [tenofovir (TDF), atazanavir (ATV), indinavir (IDV) and lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r)]. We also analysed the incidence of RTD in the UK CHIC cohort. Kruskall-Wallis, analysis of variance and Fisher's exact tests were used to evaluate between-group differences., Results: Of the 60 RTD cases, 54 (90%) were included in the analyses. RTD comprised of three distinct patterns: acute tubular injury (ATI, n = 22), tubulo-interstitial nephritis (TIN, n = 20) and interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA, n = 12). Compared with TIN and IFTA, ATI cases were less likely to be of black ethnicity (10 vs. 42-55%; P = 0.006), more likely to be on ART (100 vs. 55-68%; P = 0.001), with HIV-RNA below 200 copies/ml (100 vs. 54-58%; P < 0.001), and more likely to have current/recent exposure to TDF (P < 0.001). We did not find evidence for an association between exposure to TDF, ATV/r or LPV/r and either TIN or IFTA., Conclusion: RTD was present in approximately 20% of renal biopsies and comprised three distinct injury patterns with considerable clinical overlap. ATI was associated with TDF exposure, although the overall incidence of biopsy-defined ATI was low.

Background: Recommendations have differed nationally and internationally with respect to the best time to start antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared effectiveness of three strategies for initiation of ART in high-income countries for HIV-positive individuals who do not have AIDS: immediate initiation, initiation at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL, and initiation at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL., Methods: We used data from the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration of cohort studies in Europe and the USA. We included 55,826 individuals aged 18 years or older who were diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between January, 2000, and September, 2013, had not started ART, did not have AIDS, and had CD4 count and HIV-RNA viral load measurements within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. We estimated relative risks of death and of death or AIDS-defining illness, mean survival time, the proportion of individuals in need of ART, and the proportion of individuals with HIV-RNA viral load less than 50 copies per mL, as would have been recorded under each ART initiation strategy after 7 years of HIV diagnosis. We used the parametric g-formula to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounders., Findings: Median CD4 count at diagnosis of HIV infection was 376 cells per μL (IQR 222-551). Compared with immediate initiation, the estimated relative risk of death was 1·02 (95% CI 1·01-1·02) when ART was started at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL, and 1·06 (1·04-1·08) with initiation at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL. Corresponding estimates for death or AIDS-defining illness were 1·06 (1·06-1·07) and 1·20 (1·17-1·23), respectively. Compared with immediate initiation, the mean survival time at 7 years with a strategy of initiation at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL was 2 days shorter (95% CI 1-2) and at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL was 5 days shorter (4-6). 7 years after diagnosis of HIV, 100%, 98·7% (95% CI 98·6-98·7), and 92·6% (92·2-92·9) of individuals would have been in need of ART with immediate initiation, initiation at a CD4 count less than 500 cells per μL, and initiation at a CD4 count less than 350 cells per μL, respectively. Corresponding proportions of individuals with HIV-RNA viral load less than 50 copies per mL at 7 years were 87·3% (87·3-88·6), 87·4% (87·4-88·6), and 83·8% (83·6-84·9)., Interpretation: The benefits of immediate initiation of ART, such as prolonged survival and AIDS-free survival and increased virological suppression, were small in this high-income setting with relatively low CD4 count at HIV diagnosis. The estimated beneficial effect on AIDS is less than in recently reported randomised trials. Increasing rates of HIV testing might be as important as a policy of early initiation of ART., Funding: National Institutes of Health., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Current clinical guidelines consider regimens consisting of either ritonavir-boosted atazanavir or ritonavir-boosted lopinavir and a nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) backbone among their recommended and alternative first-line antiretroviral regimens. However, these guidelines are based on limited evidence from randomized clinical trials and clinical experience., Methods: We compared these regimens with respect to clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes using data from prospective studies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals in Europe and the United States in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration, 2004-2013. Antiretroviral therapy-naive and AIDS-free individuals were followed from the time they started a lopinavir or an atazanavir regimen. We estimated the 'intention-to-treat' effect for atazanavir vs lopinavir regimens on each of the outcomes., Results: A total of 6668 individuals started a lopinavir regimen (213 deaths, 457 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths), and 4301 individuals started an atazanavir regimen (83 deaths, 157 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths). The adjusted intention-to-treat hazard ratios for atazanavir vs lopinavir regimens were 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], .53-.91) for death, 0.67 (95% CI, .55-.82) for AIDS-defining illness or death, and 0.91 (95% CI, .84-.99) for virologic failure at 12 months. The mean 12-month increase in CD4 count was 8.15 (95% CI, -.13 to 16.43) cells/µL higher in the atazanavir group. Estimates differed by NRTI backbone., Conclusions: Our estimates are consistent with a lower mortality, a lower incidence of AIDS-defining illness, a greater 12-month increase in CD4 cell count, and a smaller risk of virologic failure at 12 months for atazanavir compared with lopinavir regimens., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: The association between combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and cancer risk, especially regimens containing protease inhibitors (PIs) or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), is unclear., Methods: Participants were followed from the latest of D:A:D study entry or January 1, 2004, until the earliest of a first cancer diagnosis, February 1, 2012, death, or 6 months after the last visit. Multivariable Poisson regression models assessed associations between cumulative (per year) use of either any cART or PI/NNRTI, and the incidence of any cancer, non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADC), AIDS-defining cancers (ADC), and the most frequently occurring ADC (Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma) and NADC (lung, invasive anal, head/neck cancers, and Hodgkin lymphoma)., Results: A total of 41,762 persons contributed 241,556 person-years (PY). A total of 1832 cancers were diagnosed [incidence rate: 0.76/100 PY (95% confidence interval: 0.72 to 0.79)], 718 ADC [0.30/100 PY (0.28-0.32)], and 1114 NADC [0.46/100 PY (0.43-0.49)]. Longer exposure to cART was associated with a lower ADC risk [adjusted rate ratio: 0.88/year (0.85-0.92)] but a higher NADC risk [1.02/year (1.00-1.03)]. Both PI and NNRTI use were associated with a lower ADC risk [PI: 0.96/year (0.92-1.00); NNRTI: 0.86/year (0.81-0.91)]. PI use was associated with a higher NADC risk [1.03/year (1.01-1.05)]. Although this was largely driven by an association with anal cancer [1.08/year (1.04-1.13)], the association remained after excluding anal cancers from the end point [1.02/year (1.01-1.04)]. No association was seen between NNRTI use and NADC [1.00/year (0.98-1.02)]., Conclusions: Cumulative use of PIs may be associated with a higher risk of anal cancer and possibly other NADC. Further investigation of biological mechanisms is warranted.

Objective: The link between CNS penetration of antiretrovirals and AIDS-defining neurologic disorders remains largely unknown., Methods: HIV-infected, antiretroviral therapy-naive individuals in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration who started an antiretroviral regimen were classified according to the CNS Penetration Effectiveness (CPE) score of their initial regimen into low (<8), medium (8-9), or high (>9) CPE score. We estimated "intention-to-treat" hazard ratios of 4 neuroAIDS conditions for baseline regimens with high and medium CPE scores compared with regimens with a low score. We used inverse probability weighting to adjust for potential bias due to infrequent follow-up., Results: A total of 61,938 individuals were followed for a median (interquartile range) of 37 (18, 70) months. During follow-up, there were 235 cases of HIV dementia, 169 cases of toxoplasmosis, 128 cases of cryptococcal meningitis, and 141 cases of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. The hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for initiating a combined antiretroviral therapy regimen with a high vs low CPE score was 1.74 (1.15, 2.65) for HIV dementia, 0.90 (0.50, 1.62) for toxoplasmosis, 1.13 (0.61, 2.11) for cryptococcal meningitis, and 1.32 (0.71, 2.47) for progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. The respective hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for a medium vs low CPE score were 1.01 (0.73, 1.39), 0.80 (0.56, 1.15), 1.08 (0.73, 1.62), and 1.08 (0.73, 1.58)., Conclusions: We estimated that initiation of a combined antiretroviral therapy regimen with a high CPE score increases the risk of HIV dementia, but not of other neuroAIDS conditions., (© 2014 American Academy of Neurology.)

Objective: Few data describe antiretroviral treatment (ART)-related adverse events when treatment is initiated at CD4(+) cell counts more than 350 cells/μl. We compared rates of laboratory-defined adverse events (LDAEs) according to CD4(+) cell count at ART initiation., Design: Analysis of on-going cohort study., Methods: ART-naive persons initiating ART from 2000 to 2010 were included. Chi-square, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Kruskal-Wallis tests compared characteristics among those starting ART with a CD4(+) cell count of 350 or less, 351-499 and at least 500 cells/μl. Time-updated Poisson regression compared rates of LDAE in the three CD4(+) cell strata. Cox proportional hazard models compared risk of ART discontinuation., Results: Nine thousand, four hundred and six individuals were included: median age 37 years, 61% white, 80% men, median viral load 4.8 log copies/ml. Four hundred and forty-seven (4.9%) and 1099 (11.7%) started ART with a CD4(+) cell count at least 500 and 351-499 cells/μl, respectively. One thousand, two hundred and eighty-three (13.6%) patients experienced at least one LDAE. The rate of LDAE did not differ between those starting ART with a CD4(+) cell count 351-499 and less than 350 cells/μl [relative rate 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74-1.09)], but an increased risk of ART discontinuation was observed (hazard ratio 1.58, 95% CI 1.10-2.27). Those starting ART at CD4(+) cell count at least 500 cells/μl had an increased rate of LDAE (relative rate 1.44, 95% CI 1.13-1.82) but were not more likely to discontinue ART (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% CI 0.64-2.09)., Conclusion: This study demonstrates the need to consider ART-related toxicities when initiating therapy at CD4(+) cell counts at least 500 cells/μl. Whilst evidence from randomized controlled trials is awaited, the timing of ART initiation in terms of benefits and risks of ART remains an important question.

Objective: HIV-1 genetic variability may influence antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes. The study aim was to determine the impact of polymorphisms in regions known to harbor major nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance mutations (codons 90-108, 135-138, 179-190, 225-348) on virologic responses to first-line NNRTI-based ART., Methods: Reverse transcriptase sequences from ART-naive individuals who commenced efavirenz (EFV) or nevirapine (NVP) with at least two nucleos(t)ide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) without major drug resistance mutations were analyzed. The impact of polymorphisms on week 4 viral load decrease and time to virologic failure was measured over a median 97 weeks., Results: Among 4528 patients, most were infected with HIV-1 subtype B (67%) and commenced EFV-based ART (84%). Overall, 2598 (57%) had at least one polymorphism, most frequently at codons 90, 98, 101, 103, 106, 135, 138, 179, and 238. Virologic failure rates were increased in patients with two (n = 597) or more than two (n = 72) polymorphisms [adjusted hazard ratio 1.43; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.92; P = 0.016]. Polymorphisms associated with virologic failure occurred at codons 90 (mostly V90I), 98 (mostly A98S), and 103 (mostly K103R), with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.78 (1.15-2.73; P = 0.009), 1.55 (1.16-2.08; P = 0.003), and 1.75 (1.00-3.05: P = 0.049), respectively. Polymorphisms at codon 179, especially V179D/E/T, predicted reduced week 4 responses (P = 0.001) but not virologic failure., Conclusion: The occurrence of multiple polymorphisms, though uncommon, was associated with a small increase in the risk of NNRTI treatment failure; significant effects were seen with polymorphisms at codon 90, 98, and 103. The mechanisms underlying the slower suppression seen with V179D/E/T deserve further investigation.

Objectives: The pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic effects of antiretroviral therapy may differ in older compared with younger subjects with HIV infection. We aimed to assess factors associated with plasma antiretroviral drug exposure, including age, within a large HIV-infected cohort undergoing therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM)., Methods: Data from the Liverpool TDM Registry were linked with the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) Study. All TDM of protease inhibitors (PIs) and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) was included and in order to account for different antiretroviral drugs the plasma concentrations were standardized by group measurements according to drug, dosing and timing of TDM. Regression modelling was used to evaluate associations of drug exposure with age and clinical parameters, including hepatic transaminase results and time to antiretroviral treatment modification., Results: Data from 3589 TDM samples were available from 2447 subjects. The greatest numbers of plasma concentrations were assessed for lopinavir (22.4%), efavirenz (18.5%), atazanavir (17.0%) and saquinavir (11.6%). As age increased, median standardized NNRTI concentrations remained constant, whereas PI concentrations increased (correlation coefficient 0.04, P = 0.033). In a regression analysis stratified by antiretroviral drug class, standardized plasma concentrations were significantly associated with age for PIs (0.05 increase in standard deviation of drug concentration with each 10 year increase in age, P = 0.044), but not for NNRTIs or other clinical parameters, including hepatic transaminase results or time to antiretroviral treatment modification., Conclusions: With increasing age, statistically significant rises in plasma PI exposure, but not NNRTI exposure, were observed. The clinical relevance of this observation merits further investigation.

Introduction: Though patients with HIV now have near normal life expectancies as a result of antiretroviral treatment, long-term adverse effects are of growing concern. Using time-updated laboratory measurements, we use several methods to derive a score that can be used to identify individuals at high risk of mortality., Methods: Patients who started highly active antiretroviral therapy after 2000 and had ≥1 CD4 count, viral load, and laboratory marker recorded after the date of starting highly active antiretroviral therapy were included in the analyses. Laboratory markers were stratified into quintiles and associations between each marker and mortality was assessed using Poisson regression. The estimates of the final model were used to construct a score for predicting short-term mortality. Several methods, including multiple imputation, were used for analyzing records with missing measurements., Results: Of the 7232 patients included in this analysis, 247 died over 24,796 person-years of follow-up, giving an overall mortality rate of 1.00 (95% confidence interval: 0.87 to 1.12) per 100 person-years. Regardless of which method was used to deal with missing data, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, and hemoglobin were independently associated with mortality. Alanine transaminase was independently associated with mortality when patients with missing measurements were assumed to have measurements within the normal range. The C-statistics for all models ranged from 0.76 to 0.78., Conclusion: Measures of alanine transaminase, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, and hemoglobin in the normal range were predictive of mortality, and hence we suggest using a scoring system to predict mortality which relies on the raw values of these 4 laboratory markers.

Background: Estimates of the prevalence of transmitted HIV drug resistance (TDR) in a population are derived from resistance tests performed on samples from patients thought to be naïve to antiretroviral treatment (ART). Much of the debate over reliability of estimates of the prevalence of TDR has focused on whether the sample population is representative. However estimates of the prevalence of TDR will also be distorted if some ART-experienced patients are misclassified as ART-naïve., Methods: The impact of misclassification bias on the rate of TDR was examined. We developed methods to obtain adjusted estimates of the prevalence of TDR for different misclassification rates, and conducted sensitivity analyses of trends in the prevalence of TDR over time using data from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Logistic regression was used to examine trends in the prevalence of TDR over time., Results: The observed rate of TDR was higher than true TDR when misclassification was present and increased as the proportion of misclassification increased. As the number of naïve patients with a resistance test relative to the number of experienced patients with a test increased, the difference between true and observed TDR decreased. The observed prevalence of TDR in the UK reached a peak of 11.3% in 2002 (odds of TDR increased by 1.10 (95% CI 1.02, 1.19, p(linear trend) = 0.02) per year 1997-2002) before decreasing to 7.0% in 2007 (odds of TDR decreased by 0.90 (95% CI 0.87, 0.94, p(linear trend) < 0.001) per year 2002-2007. Trends in adjusted TDR were altered as the misclassification rate increased; the significant downward trend between 2002-2007 was lost when the misclassification increased to over 4%., Conclusion: The effect of misclassification of ART on estimates of the prevalence of TDR may be appreciable, and depends on the number of naïve tests relative to the number of experienced tests. Researchers can examine the effect of ART misclassification on their estimates of the prevalence of TDR if such a bias is suspected.

Introduction: The CD4 count and CD4 percentage (CD4%) are both strong predictors of clinical disease progression in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Although individuals may show discordancy between their CD4 count and CD4%, the clinical relevance of this is unclear., Methods: Discordancy was defined where the CD4% was ≤10th percentile for a selected CD4 count range (referred to as low discordancy), within the central 80% range (concordant), or ≥90th percentile (high discordancy). Regression methods identified factors associated with low and high discordancy in untreated individuals and assessed the impact of discordancy on treatment responses to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)., Results: High discordancy was associated with female sex, low viral load, and white ethnicity; low discordancy was associated with black or nonwhite ethnicity, older age, and injection drug use. Clinical event rates were higher in individuals with high discordancy starting HAART, but there was no association with subsequent HIV progression by 6 months after starting HAART. CD4 count increases remained lower, by 20 cells/mm(3), in individuals with low discordancy, and higher, by 27 cells/mm(3), in those with high discordancy., Conclusions: Overall discrepancies between the CD4/CD4% are small, confirming the use of absolute CD4 counts as a monitoring tool.

Objective: We investigated whether adverse responses to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) associated with late HIV presentation are secondary to low CD4 cell count per se or other confounding factors., Methods: A longitudinal analysis of the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) Study of individuals starting HAART in 1998-2007 was carried out, comparing late presenters (presenting/starting HAART at a CD4 count <200 cells/μL) with late starters (presenting at a CD4 count>350 cells/μL; starting HAART at a CD4 count<200 cells/μL), using 'ideal starters' (presenting at a CD4 count>350 cells/μL; starting HAART at a CD4 count of 200-350 cells/μL) as a comparator. Virological, immunological and clinical (new AIDS event/death) outcomes at 48 and 96 weeks were analysed, with the analysis being limited to those remaining on HAART for>3 months., Results: A total of 4978 of 9095 individuals starting first-line HAART with HIV RNA>500 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL were included in the analysis: 2741 late presenters, 947 late starters and 1290 ideal starters. Late presenters were more commonly female, heterosexual and Black African. Most started nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs); 48-week virological suppression was similar in late presenters and starters (and marginally lower than in ideal starters); by week 96 differences were reduced and nonsignificant. The median CD4 cell count increase in late presenters was significantly lower than that in late starters (weeks 48 and 96). During year 1, new clinical events were more frequent for late presenters [odds ratio (OR) 2.04; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-3.51; P=0.01]; by year 2, event rates were similar in all groups., Conclusion: Amongst patients who initiate, and remain on, HAART, late presentation is associated with lower rates of virological suppression, blunted CD4 cell count increases and more clinical events compared with late starters in year 1, but similar clinical and immunological outcomes by year 2 to those of both late and ideal starters. Differences between late presenters and late starters suggest that factors other than CD4 cell count alone may be driving adverse treatment outcomes in late-presenting individuals.

Objective: Effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) has transformed the care of people with HIV, but it is important to monitor time trends in indicators of treatment success and antic future changes., Methods: We assessed time trends from 2000 to 2007 in several indicators of treatment success in the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) Study, and using national HIV data from the Health Protection Agency (HPA) we developed a model to project future trends., Results: The proportion of patients on ART with a viral load <50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL increased from 62% in 2000 to 84% in 2007, and the proportion of all patients with a CD4 count <200 cells/microL decreased from 21% to 10%. During this period, the number of patients who experienced extensive triple class failure (ETCF) rose from 147 (0.9%) to 1771 (3.9%). The number who experienced such ETCF and had a current viral load >50 copies/mL rose fromz 118 (0.7%) to 857 (1.9%). Projections to 2012 suggest sustained high levels of success, with a continued increase in the number of patients who have failed multiple drugs but a relatively stable number of such patients experiencing viral loads >50 copies/mL. Numbers of deaths are projected to remain low., Conclusions: There have been continued improvements in key indicators of success in patients with HIV from 2000 to 2007. Although the number of patients who have ETCF is projected to rise in the future, the number of such patients with viral loads >50 copies/mL is not projected to increase up to 2012. New drugs may be needed in future to sustain these positive trends.

Objective: The study aim was to determine how resistance testing influences outcome of first-line highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in routine practice in the United Kingdom., Methods: The prevalence of transmitted drug resistance and the genotypic sensitivity score (GSS) of first-line HAART regimens were determined using data from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort(CHIC) Study. Factors associated with starting a regimen with a reduced GSS and subsequent virological responses were analyzed by logistic and Cox regression., Results: Amongst patients tested in 1999–2006, 116 of 1175 (10%) had $1 resistance mutation; 64 patients (5.4%) had $1 mutation associated with resistance to drugs in the initial HAART regimen and 54 (4.6%) showed a GSS, 3. Factors independently associated with a GSS, 3 were starting HAART in 1999–2001 vs. 2004–2006 (odds ratio = 2.63; 95% confidence interval: 1.19 to 5.83) and use of ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r)–based vs. nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor–based regimens (1.97; 1.06 to 3.64). AGSS .3 was independently associated with virological suppression(hazard ratio for GSS, 3 = 0.60; 95% confidence interval 0.41 to 0.87)., Conclusions: Most patients starting HAART after undergoing resistance testing received regimens with a GSS $3. PI/r-based therapy was often selected in patients with resistance to the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone. Low GSS predicted poor virological suppression and the association persisted after adjusting for PI/r use.

Objective: To estimate the effect of combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) on mortality among HIV-infected individuals after appropriate adjustment for time-varying confounding by indication., Design: A collaboration of 12 prospective cohort studies from Europe and the United States (the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration) that includes 62 760 HIV-infected, therapy-naive individuals followed for an average of 3.3 years. Inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models was used to adjust for measured confounding by indication., Results: Two thousand and thirty-nine individuals died during the follow-up. The mortality hazard ratio was 0.48 (95% confidence interval 0.41-0.57) for cART initiation versus no initiation. In analyses stratified by CD4 cell count at baseline, the corresponding hazard ratios were 0.29 (0.22-0.37) for less than 100 cells/microl, 0.33 (0.25-0.44) for 100 to less than 200 cells/microl, 0.38 (0.28-0.52) for 200 to less than 350 cells/microl, 0.55 (0.41-0.74) for 350 to less than 500 cells/microl, and 0.77 (0.58-1.01) for 500 cells/microl or more. The estimated hazard ratio varied with years since initiation of cART from 0.57 (0.49-0.67) for less than 1 year since initiation to 0.21 (0.14-0.31) for 5 years or more (P value for trend <0.001)., Conclusion: We estimated that cART halved the average mortality rate in HIV-infected individuals. The mortality reduction was greater in those with worse prognosis at the start of follow-up.

Patients with a baseline viral load >100,000 copies/mL receiving abacavir (ABC) as part of the nucleoside-backbone component of their first highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimen have been reported to have a greater failure rate than those receiving tenofovir (TDF). We analyzed short-term outcomes of the use of HAART combinations that included ABC or TDF. The mean 2-8-week change in viral load was calculated using linear regression. In total, 1136 patients started ABC, and 412 started TDF. After adjustment for baseline viral load and other factors, there was no difference in the change in viral load between the patients who started ABC and those who started TDF (0.03 [95% confidence interval, -0.07 to 0.12]) log copies/mL; P = .59). Furthermore, there was no evidence that this effect differed according to baseline viral load (P = .88 for the interaction between pre-HAART viral load and nucleoside started). Likewise, there was no difference in rates of virological failure between the 2 drugs at 24-48 weeks after starting HAART.

Background: It has been proposed that subtype-related human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) variability may influence virologic and immunologic responses to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Studies to date, however, have described treatment outcomes predominantly in persons with subtype B infection or compared subtype B with diverse non-B subtypes grouped together., Methods: With use of data from the linked UK Collaborative Group on HIV Drug Resistance and the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort Study databases, time to viral load undetectability (viral load, <50 copies/mL), time to virologic rebound (viral load, >1000 copies/mL), and increases in the CD4 cell count were compared for a median of 39 months (interquartile range, 23-67 months) in drug-naive patients infected with subtype B (n=1550), subtype C (n=272), subtype A (n=66), circulating recombinant form AG (n=57), or subtype D (n=41) disease who started HAART., Results: Overall, 1906 (90%) of 2116 patients achieved viral load undetectability within 12 months after they started HAART, of whom 335 (18%) subsequently experienced virologic rebound. In adjusted analyses, viral load suppression occurred more rapidly in patients infected with subtype C (hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.33; P=.04) and subtype A (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.74; P=.02) relative to subtype B infection. The virologic rebound occurred marginally more rapidly in patients with subtype C infection (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.95; P=.05), but the hazard of virologic rebound was similar with other subtypes. Although persons with subtype B infection showed higher baseline CD4 cell counts and maintained the advantage throughout therapy, CD4 cell count recovery occurred at similar rates with all subtypes., Conclusions: Patients infected with prevalent non-B subtypes were as likely to achieve viral load suppression as persons infected with subtype B and showed comparable rates of CD4 cell count recovery. HAART achieves excellent outcomes regardless of the infecting subtype.

Objective: Many patients infected with HIV still present with an AIDS diagnosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the virological, immunological and clinical outcomes of HAART in these patients., Design: The present study was a multi-cohort study. All patients with an AIDS diagnosis between 30 days before and 14 days after HIV diagnosis, recruited between 1997 and 2004 from eight hospital cohorts, were evaluated., Results: A total of 760 patients were included [268 (35.3%) had pneumocystis and 168 (22.1%) tuberculosis]. Six hundred and twenty-four patients (82.1%) started HAART a median of 31 days after HIV diagnosis. One hundred and fifty-three patients started a nonnucleoside transcriptase inhibitor-based regimen (20.1%), 409 a protease inhibitor-based regimen (53.8%) and 62 other regimens (8.2%). In adjusted analyses, HAART was started sooner in more recent years, in patients with lower CD4 cell count and in those with Kaposi's sarcoma, whereas it was started later in those with tuberculosis. Five hundred and five patients (89%) attained a viral load of less than 500 copies/ml. The factors associated with a better virological response were later calendar year, lower initial viral load and cytomegalovirus disease. Virological rebound was more common in those receiving nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens, in those with tuberculosis and in earlier calendar years. One hundred and twenty-five (16%) patients died; 61 had received HAART (48.6%). Mortality was more likely in those who were older, those with a higher viral load at diagnosis, those with nonsexual HIV risks and those with lower CD4 cell count and haemoglobin levels over follow-up., Conclusion: Virological suppression was achieved in most AIDS patients, though mortality remains high in these individuals.

Objective: Though effective anti-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) therapies are now available, they have variable penetration into the brain. We therefore aimed to assess changes over calendar time in the risk for HIV-associated dementia (HIV-D), and factors associated with HIV-D risk., Methods: Using Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) data, we analyzed factors associated with time from HIV seroconversion to HIV-D using Cox models with time-updated covariates. The effect of duration of infection was explored using flexible parametric survival models., Results: 222 of 15,380 seroconverters developed HIV-D. The incidence per 1,000 person-years was 6.49 pre-1997 (before highly active antiretroviral therapy was available), declining to 0.66 by 2003 to 2006. Compared with most recent CD4 count > or = 350 cells/mm3, the adjusted relative risk (95% confidence interval) of HIV-D was 3.47 (1.91-6.28), 10.19 (5.72-18.15), and 39.03 (22.96-66.36) at 200 to 349, 100 to 199, and 0 to 99 cells/mm3, respectively. In 2003 to 2006, older age at seroconversion (relative risk = 3.24 per 10-year increase [95% confidence interval, 2.00-5.24]) and previous acquired immune deficiency syndrome diagnosis (relative risk = 4.92 [95% confidence interval, 1.43-16.92]) were associated with HIV-D risk, independently of current CD4 count. HIV-D risk appeared to increase during chronic infection, by 48% at 10 years after seroconversion compared with the lowest risk at 1.8 years., Interpretation: HIV-D incidence has reduced markedly since 1997. However, patients with low (<200 cells/mm3) or even intermediate (200-349 cells/mm3) CD4 counts, previous acquired immune deficiency syndrome diagnosis, longer HIV infection duration, and older age at seroconversion are at increased risk and should be closely monitored for neurocognitive disorders.

Objective: To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy., Design: A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003., Methods: Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions., Results: During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone., Conclusion: On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

Objectives: We examined whether the timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in routine clinical practice reflected treatment guidelines, which have evolved towards recommending starting therapy at lower CD4 cell counts., Methods: We analysed longitudinal data on 10,820 patients enrolled in the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Study, which includes seven large clinical centres in south-east England. CD4 cell and viral load measurements performed in the period between 1 January 1997 and 31 December 2003 were classified according to whether ART was subsequently initiated or deferred, to estimate the probability of ART initiation by CD4 count and viral load over time. The effect of nonclinical factors (age, sex, ethnicity, and exposure category) was analysed by logistic regression. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate the proportion of patients who had initiated ART by a particular CD4 count among 'early' presenters (initial CD4 cell count >500 cells/microL)., Results: There was a tendency to initiate ART at lower CD4 cell counts over time in the years 1997-2000, especially in the range 200-500 cells/microL, with little change thereafter. An estimated 34% of HIV-infected individuals having presented early initiated ART at a CD4 count <200 cells/microL. We also found an independent influence of viral load, which was particularly pronounced for CD4 <350 cells/microL. Use of injection drugs was the only nonclinical factor associated with initiation of ART at lower CD4 cell counts., Conclusions: The initiation of ART in the clinics included in this analysis reflected evolving treatment guidelines. However, an unexpectedly high proportion of patients started ART at lower CD4 counts than recommended, which is only partly explained by late presentation.

Objective: To study the determinants of immunological and virological response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in naïve patients, adjusting for time since HIV-1 seroconversion., Design: Data from HIV-cohort studies where dates of seroconversion have been reliably estimated. Methods In previously untreated patients, short- and long-term marker responses from HAART initiation (three or more antiretroviral drugs) to the end of follow-up or any treatment modification were considered using mixed effects models accounting for undetectable HIV viral load and informative dropout., Results: In total, 943 patients were treated with a first HAART regimen for a median of 29 months. In adjusted analyses, compared with a reference group of homosexual men without AIDS initiating treatment 4 years after seroconversion, injecting drug users (IDUs) were treated at similar CD4 and HIV RNA levels but had poorer short-term virological response (2.54 vs 2.13 log(10) HIV-1 RNA copies/mL at 1.5 months, P=0.03) and poorer long-term immunological response (522 vs 631 cells/microL at 24 months, P<0.0001). Although individuals with AIDS at HAART initiation had lower CD4 counts (206 vs 382 cells/microL, P<0.0001), their immunological responses were similar to those of individuals without AIDS. Similarly, individuals further from seroconversion started HAART at lower CD4 counts (e.g. 311 vs 382 cells/microL at vs before 9 years from seroconversion, P<0.0001), but had similar CD4 responses. However, they experienced poorer long-term virological response (0.67 log(10) copies/mL/year smaller decline, P<0.0001) compared to those treated before 9 years from seroconversion., Conclusion: Taking into account the time elapsed since seroconversion, this study suggests that careful choices of initial treatment should be made and intensive follow-up carried out in high-risk subgroups such as IDUs who have poorer responses.

The effect of HIV infection duration and CD4 cell count on short-term CD4 response was evaluated in treatment-naive seroconverters using logistic regression adjusted for CD4 count before highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) as well as for exposure category, age, sex, acute infection, and cohort. This association was also investigated in pretreated seroconverters, further adjusting for prior therapy. CD4 response (increase of >100 cells/microL at 6 months) was more likely if HAART was initiated in the first year following seroconversion (OR = 1.50 [95% CI: 1.07-2.10] compared with 2-5 years). There was no improvement in response from initiating HAART with CD4 count >350 cells/microL compared with 201 to 350 cells/microL. Below 200 cells/microL, however, the chance of a CD4 response appeared to be reduced (OR = 0.72 [95% CI: 0.40-1.28] for 0-200 cells/microL compared with 201-350 cells/microL, P = 0.26). Results were similar for pretreated individuals. Further, in pretreated individuals, a CD4 response was less likely if the CD4 nadir was lower than the pre-HAART CD4 count (OR = 0.18 [95% CI: 0.10-0.36] for >150 cells/microL difference between nadir and pre-HAART CD4 count vs. no difference, P < 0.001). Given the limitations of observational studies, particularly the inability to control for unmeasured confounders, these findings suggest that the initiation of HAART within the first year following seroconversion appears to improve short-term immunologic response. After that time, there is little to be gained in terms of short-term response from initiating HAART before reaching a CD4 count of 200 cells/microL.