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Medications to treat major depressive disorder (MDD) are not equally effective across patients. Given that neural response to rewards is altered in MDD and given that reward-related circuitry is modulated by dopamine and serotonin, we examined, for the first time, whether reward-related neural activity moderated response to sertraline, an antidepressant medication that targets these neurotransmitters. A total of 222 unmedicated adults with MDD randomized to receive sertraline (n = 110) or placebo (n = 112) in the Establishing Moderators and Biosignatures of Antidepressant Response in Clinical Care (EMBARC) study completed demographic and clinical assessments, and pretreatment functional magnetic resonance imaging while performing a reward task. We tested whether an index of reward system function in the ventral striatum (VS), a key reward circuitry region, moderated differential response to sertraline versus placebo, assessed with the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HSRD) over 8 weeks. We observed a significant moderation effect of the reward index, reflecting the temporal dynamics of VS activity, on week-8 depression levels (Fs ≥ 9.67, ps ≤ 0.002). Specifically, VS responses that were abnormal with respect to predictions from reinforcement learning theory were associated with lower week-8 depression symptoms in the sertraline versus placebo arms. Thus, a more abnormal pattern of pretreatment VS dynamic response to reward expectancy (expected outcome value) and prediction error (difference between expected and actual outcome), likely reflecting serotonergic and dopaminergic deficits, was associated with better response to sertraline than placebo. Pretreatment measures of reward-related VS activity may serve as objective neural markers to advance efforts to personalize interventions by guiding individual-level choice of antidepressant treatment.

Background: Baseline rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC) activity is a well-replicated nonspecific predictor of depression improvement. The rACC is a key hub of the default mode network, which prior studies indicate is hyperactive in major depressive disorder. Because default mode network downregulation is reliant on input from the salience network and frontoparietal network, an important question is whether rACC connectivity with these systems contributes to depression improvement., Methods: Our study evaluated this hypothesis in outpatients (N = 238; 151 female) enrolled in the Establishing Moderators and Biosignatures of Antidepressant Response for Clinical Care (EMBARC) 8-week randomized clinical trial of sertraline versus placebo for major depressive disorder. Depression severity was measured using the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression, and electroencephalography was recorded at baseline and week 1. Exact low-resolution electromagnetic tomography was used to compute activity from the rACC, and key regions within the default mode network (posterior cingulate cortex), frontoparietal network (left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex), and salience network (right anterior insula [rAI]). Connectivity in the theta band (4.5-7 Hz) and beta band (12.5-21 Hz) was computed using lagged phase synchronization., Results: Stronger baseline theta-band rACC-rAI (salience network hub) connectivity predicted greater depression improvement across 8 weeks of treatment for both treatment arms (B = -0.57, 95% confidence interval = -1.07, -0.08, p = .03). Early increases in theta-band rACC-rAI connectivity predicted greater likelihood of achieving remission at week 8 (odds ratio = 2.90, p = .03)., Conclusions: Among patients undergoing treatment, theta-band rACC-rAI connectivity is a prognostic, albeit treatment-nonspecific, indicator of depression improvement, and early connectivity changes may predict clinically meaningful outcomes., (Copyright © 2018 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a highly heterogeneous condition in terms of symptom presentation and, likely, underlying pathophysiology. Accordingly, it is possible that only certain individuals with MDD are well-suited to antidepressants. A potentially fruitful approach to parsing this heterogeneity is to focus on promising endophenotypes of depression, such as neuroticism, anhedonia, and cognitive control deficits., Methods: Within an 8-week multisite trial of sertraline v. placebo for depressed adults (n = 216), we examined whether the combination of machine learning with a Personalized Advantage Index (PAI) can generate individualized treatment recommendations on the basis of endophenotype profiles coupled with clinical and demographic characteristics., Results: Five pre-treatment variables moderated treatment response. Higher depression severity and neuroticism, older age, less impairment in cognitive control, and being employed were each associated with better outcomes to sertraline than placebo. Across 1000 iterations of a 10-fold cross-validation, the PAI model predicted that 31% of the sample would exhibit a clinically meaningful advantage [post-treatment Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HRSD) difference ⩾3] with sertraline relative to placebo. Although there were no overall outcome differences between treatment groups (d = 0.15), those identified as optimally suited to sertraline at pre-treatment had better week 8 HRSD scores if randomized to sertraline (10.7) than placebo (14.7) (d = 0.58)., Conclusions: A subset of MDD patients optimally suited to sertraline can be identified on the basis of pre-treatment characteristics. This model must be tested prospectively before it can be used to inform treatment selection. However, findings demonstrate the potential to improve individual outcomes through algorithm-guided treatment recommendations.

Importance: Major depressive disorder (MDD) remains challenging to treat. Although several clinical and demographic variables have been found to predict poor antidepressant response, these markers have not been robustly replicated to warrant implementation in clinical care. Increased pretreatment rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC) theta activity has been linked to better antidepressant outcomes. However, no prior study has evaluated whether this marker has incremental predictive validity over clinical and demographic measures., Objective: To determine whether increased pretreatment rACC theta activity would predict symptom improvement regardless of randomization arm., Design, Setting, and Participants: A multicenter randomized clinical trial enrolled outpatients without psychosis and with chronic or recurrent MDD between July 29, 2011, and December 15, 2015 (Establishing Moderators and Biosignatures of Antidepressant Response for Clinical Care [EMBARC]). Patients were consecutively recruited from 4 university hospitals: 634 patients were screened, 296 were randomized to receive sertraline hydrochloride or placebo, 266 had electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings, and 248 had usable EEG data. Resting EEG data were recorded at baseline and 1 week after trial onset, and rACC theta activity was extracted using source localization. Intent-to-treat analysis was conducted. Data analysis was performed from October 7, 2016, to January 19, 2018., Interventions: An 8-week course of sertraline or placebo., Main Outcomes and Measures: The 17-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression score (assessed at baseline and weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 8)., Results: The 248 participants (160 [64.5%] women, 88 [35.5%] men) with usable EEG data had a mean (SD) age of 36.75 (13.15) years. Higher rACC theta activity at both baseline (b = -1.05; 95% CI, -1.77 to -0.34; P = .004) and week 1 (b = -0.83; 95% CI, -1.60 to -0.06; P < .04) predicted greater depressive symptom improvement, even when controlling for clinical and demographic variables previously linked with treatment outcome. These effects were not moderated by treatment arm. The rACC theta marker, in combination with clinical and demographic variables, accounted for an estimated 39.6% of the variance in symptom change (with 8.5% of the variance uniquely attributable to the rACC theta marker)., Conclusions and Relevance: Increased pretreatment rACC theta activity represents a nonspecific prognostic marker of treatment outcome. This is the first study to date to demonstrate that rACC theta activity has incremental predictive validity., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01407094.

Background: One in three clinical trial patients with major depressive disorder report symptomatic improvement with placebo. Strategies to mitigate the effect of placebo responses have focused on modifying study design with variable success. Identifying and excluding or controlling for individuals with a high likelihood of responding to placebo may improve clinical trial efficiency and avoid unnecessary medication trials., Methods: Participants included those assigned to the placebo arm (n = 141) of the Establishing Moderators and Biosignatures for Antidepressant Response in Clinical Care (EMBARC) trial. The elastic net was used to evaluate 283 baseline clinical, behavioral, imaging, and electrophysiological variables to identify the most robust yet parsimonious features that predicted depression severity at the end of the double-blind 8-week trial. Variables retained in at least 50% of the 100 imputed data sets were used in a Bayesian multiple linear regression model to simultaneously predict the probabilities of response and remission., Results: Lower baseline depression severity, younger age, absence of melancholic features or history of physical abuse, less anxious arousal, less anhedonia, less neuroticism, and higher average theta current density in the rostral anterior cingulate predicted a higher likelihood of improvement with placebo. The Bayesian model predicted remission and response with an actionable degree of accuracy (both AUC > 0.73). An interactive calculator was developed predicting the likelihood of placebo response at the individual level., Conclusion: Easy-to-measure clinical, behavioral, and electrophysiological assessments can be used to identify placebo responders with a high degree of accuracy. Development of this calculator based on these findings can be used to identify potential placebo responders., (© 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

Growing evidence suggests that loudness dependency of auditory evoked potentials (LDAEP) and resting EEG alpha and theta may be biological markers for predicting response to antidepressants. In spite of this promise, little is known about the joint reliability of these markers, and thus their clinical applicability. New standardized procedures were developed to improve the compatibility of data acquired with different EEG platforms, and used to examine test-retest reliability for the three electrophysiological measures selected for a multisite project-Establishing Moderators and Biosignatures of Antidepressant Response for Clinical Care (EMBARC). Thirty-nine healthy controls across four clinical research sites were tested in two sessions separated by about 1 week. Resting EEG (eyes-open and eyes-closed conditions) was recorded and LDAEP measured using binaural tones (1000 Hz, 40 ms) at five intensities (60-100 dB SPL). Principal components analysis of current source density waveforms reduced volume conduction and provided reference-free measures of resting EEG alpha and N1 dipole activity to tones from auditory cortex. Low-resolution electromagnetic tomography (LORETA) extracted resting theta current density measures corresponding to rostral anterior cingulate (rACC), which has been implicated in treatment response. There were no significant differences in posterior alpha, N1 dipole, or rACC theta across sessions. Test-retest reliability was .84 for alpha, .87 for N1 dipole, and .70 for theta rACC current density. The demonstration of good-to-excellent reliability for these measures provides a template for future EEG/ERP studies from multiple testing sites, and an important step for evaluating them as biomarkers for predicting treatment response., Competing Interests: All other authors have no biomedical financial interests or potential conflicts of interest., (© 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.)