Khan F, Rahman A, Carrier M, Kearon C, Schulman S, Couturaud F, Prandoni P, Eichinger S, Becattini C, Agnelli G, Büller HR, Brighton TA, Palareti G, Pinede L, Sabri E, Hutton B, Wells GA, and Rodger MA
Introduction: For patients with a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE), the optimal duration of anticoagulation is a crucial clinical dilemma which has yet to be resolved. The decision to stop anticoagulant therapy (AT) after the initial 3-6 months or to continue AT indefinitely, is primarily governed by the long-term risk of recurrence when treatment is discontinued. This risk however, is not well established, hindering decision making., Methods and Analysis: We will conduct a systematic review and a meta-analysis of studies involving patients diagnosed with a first, symptomatic unprovoked VTE or VTE provoked by minor transient risk factors, who have completed at least 3 months of initial AT; and who were followed-up for standardised time intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10 and 20 years (±3 months) after stopping AT. We will search (from inception to January 2017) MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane library for randomised controlled trials and prospective observational studies. Two reviewers will conduct all screening and data collection independently. The primary outcome of the rate of recurrent VTE at the standardised time intervals will be calculated for each study from the total number of recurrent events and the corresponding number of patient-years of follow-up. We will use a random-effects model to pool study results and report a weighted estimate of the absolute rate of recurrent VTE (events per 100 patient-years) over standardised time intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10 and 20 years after discontinuing anticoagulants., Ethics and Dissemination: Ethical approval is not applicable for this study. Findings from this study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journal publication as well as relevant national and international conference presentations., Prospero Registration Number: CRD42017056309., Competing Interests: Competing interests: MC reports receiving research support form Leo Pharma and BMS, and honoraria from Pfizer, Bayer, BMS, and Sanofi, outside the submitted work. SS reports receiving honoraria from Boehringer Ingelheim, Bayer HealthCare, Daiichi Sankyo and Sanofi, and research support from Boehringer Ingelheim, Baxter and Octapharma, outside the submitted work. FC reports having received research grant support from Pfizer, honoraria for board memberships or symposia from Bayer and AstraZeneca, and travel support from Bayer, Daiichi Sankyo, Leo Pharma, Intermune, and Actelion, outside the submitted work. PP reports receiving consultancy and lectures fees from Bayer Pharma, Sanofi, Daiichi-Sankyo and Pfizer, outside the submitted work. CB reports receiving lectures fees from Bayer HealthCare, Bristol Meyer Squibb and Boehringer Ingelheim, outside the submitted work. GA reports personal fees from Bristol-Myers-Squibb, Pfizer, Bayer Healthcare, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Daiichi Sankyo, outside the submitted work. HRB reports receiving research support and consultancy fees from Sanofi-aventis, Bayer HealthCare, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Daiichi-Sankyo, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Roche, Isis, Thrombogenics, and Boehringer Ingelheim, outside the submitted work. TAB reports receiving personal fees from Bayer, Bayer Australia, Novo Nordisk, and Glaxo Smith Klein, outside the submitted work. GP reports Advisory Board for Alfa-Wassermann, Daiichi-Sankyo, Pfizer and Roche, and speaker fees from Werfen, outside the submitted work. BH reports receiving honoraria from Cornerstone Research Group for provision of methodologic advice related to systematic reviews and meta-analysis. MAR reports receiving research support from Biomerieux, outside of the submitted work. All other authors (FK, AR, CK, SE, LP, ES and GAW) declare that they have no relevant competing interests., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)