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Standard-of-care HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly efficacious, but uptake of and persistence on a daily oral pill is low in many settings. Evaluation of alternate PrEP products will require innovation to avoid the unpractically large sample sizes in noninferiority trials. We propose estimating HIV incidence in people not on PrEP as an external counterfactual to which on-PrEP incidence in trial subjects can be compared. HIV recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs), such as the limiting antigen avidity assay plus viral load used on specimens from untreated HIV positive people identified during screening, is one possible approach. Its feasibility is partly dependent on the sample size needed to ensure adequate power, which is impacted by RITA performance, the number of recent infections identified, the expected efficacy of the intervention, and other factors. Screening sample sizes to support detection of an 80% reduction in incidence for 3 key populations are more modest, and comparable to the number of participants in recent phase III PrEP trials. Sample sizes would be significantly larger in populations with lower incidence, where the false recency rate is higher or if PrEP efficacy is expected to be lower. Our proposed counterfactual approach appears to be feasible, offers high statistical power, and is nearly contemporaneous with the on-PrEP population. It will be important to monitor the performance of this approach during new product development for HIV prevention. If successful, it could be a model for preventive HIV vaccines and prevention of other infectious diseases., (© 2022 The Authors. Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.)

Antiretrovirals (ARVs) decrease the infectiousness of treated HIV-infected persons and can reduce the acquisition of HIV infection when taken by uninfected persons. Coformulated emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (FTC/TDF) is approved in the United States for the preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) indication, changing the regulatory landscape for new prophylactic agents. We describe the challenge of conducting rigorous clinical end-point trials for prophylactic agents and point to alternatives that leverage new information about correlates of HIV risk and protection.

Purpose of Review: This review focuses on current status, progress, challenges and opportunities in global pharmacovigilance for HIV/AIDS treatment., Recent Findings: Over 6 million HIV-infected individuals worldwide are on treatment with more than 150 innovator and generic antiretroviral drug products. This achievement is made possible through sponsorship of HIV/AIDS programs [The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; the President's Emergency Program for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)] and the availability of generic fixed-dose combination products. The WHO prequalifies generic drug products used by Global Fund programs; the US Food and Drug Administration tentatively approves generic products used by PEPFAR programs through a fast-track review process. Adequate national or regional quality and safety monitoring systems after drug distribution are lacking. The pharmaceutical sector, a significant player in pharmacovigilance in the developed world, has not been engaged. Innovative approaches based on collaboration and partnerships will be needed. Clinic-based or program-based cohort studies, randomized clinical trials and electronic medical records may contribute pharmacovigilance-relevant information., Summary: Attention to drug quality and safety is obligatory for long-term program sustainability. Systematic approaches to regional pharmacovigilance that make use of diverse data sources, and collaborative partnerships between industry, clinical and/or research programs and national health authorities can potentially contribute to overall health system strengthening.

Clinical decisions are ideally based on randomized trials but must often rely on observational data analyses, which are less straightforward and more influenced by methodology. The authors, from a series of expert roundtables convened by the Forum for Collaborative HIV Research on the use of observational studies to assess cardiovascular disease risk in human immunodeficiency virus infection, recommend that clinicians who review or interpret epidemiological publications consider 7 key statistical issues: (1) clear explanation of confounding and adjustment; (2) handling and impact of missing data; (3) consistency and clinical relevance of outcome measurements and covariate risk factors; (4) multivariate modeling techniques including time-dependent variables; (5) how multiple testing is addressed; (6) distinction between statistical and clinical significance; and (7) need for confirmation from independent databases. Recommendations to permit better understanding of potential methodological limitations include both responsible public access to de-identified source data, where permitted, and exploration of novel statistical methods.

Objective: To assess the genotypic determinants of the virological response to didanosine (ddI) in HIV-infected patients., Methods: The Forum database on ddI was randomly divided into a derivation set (n = 1000) and a validation set (n = 453). Linear regression models and bootstrap sampling were used to select resistance mutations and to estimate their resistance scores. Linear regression models, accounted for the censoring of viral load measurements due to assay lower limits, of the week 8 reduction in viral load from baseline were adjusted for baseline viral load, the exact number of weeks between baseline and the week 8 viral load measurements, and the Stanford genotypic sensitivity score., Results: The ddI resistance mutations and their resistance scores based on the derivation set were as follows: M41L (score of 14), T69D (24), D123S (40), T139M (54), I180V (53), M184V (-12), V189I (55), Q207K (37), L210W (25), and T215Y (eight). The total score is obtained by adding the individual scores. Viruses with scores of 19 or less, 20-59, and 60 or more are considered sensitive, intermediate, and resistant, respectively. In the validation set, respectively, 58.7, 36.9, and 4.4% of viruses were predicted to be sensitive, intermediate, and resistant to ddI. The observed viral load reductions at week 8 were, respectively, 1.51 log10 copies/ml [interquartile range (IQR) 1.26-1.76] (P = 0.0001 versus resistant), 1.11 (0.94-1.30) (P = 0.0077 versus sensitive), and 0.46 (0.32-0.74) (P = 0.0079 versus intermediate)., Conclusion: We developed a genotypic resistance score for didanosine including four mutations never previously used.

Background: This study was performed to investigate the concordance between commonly used human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance interpretation systems for didanosine (ddI) and their ability to predict responses at weeks 8 and 24., Methods: The study included drug-experienced HIV-infected patients who had viral loads >500 copies/mL and who underwent a genotypic resistance test when beginning a ddI-containing therapy. The interpretations of the level of resistance to ddI were compared for the 6 interpretation systems. Linear and logistic regression were used to assess their ability to predict responses for weeks 8 and 24, respectively., Results: The 1453 patients had a median viral load of 4.3 log10 copies/mL, and 31% were preexposed to ddI. Complete concordance was found for 19% of samples, partial discordance for 49%, and complete discordance for 32%. The median viral load reduction at week 8 was 1.36 log10 copies/mL, and 56% of patients had viral loads > 400 copies/mL at week 24. At week 8, all systems correctly predicted a greater viral load reduction in patients with susceptible viruses than in those with resistant viruses, but only the Stanford system was able to discriminate between patients with resistant, intermediately resistant, and susceptible viruses. No systems predicted virological response correctly at week 24., Conclusions: Our results show the need for standardized methods to establish genotypic interpretation systems.

One of the most difficult problems in HIV care today is the management of individuals infected with multidrug-resistant viruses. Well-controlled, carefully designed clinical trials have recently resulted in the approval of several new antiviral agents for the treatment of drug-resistant HIV. The design of these trials has come at the cost of the predictable emergence of drug-resistant viruses among individuals randomly assigned to receive a suboptimal revised treatment regimen. We propose here a different approach to the evaluation of drug efficacy in individuals harbouring multidrug-resistant HIV.

In most European countries, HIV drug resistance testing has become a routine clinical tool. However, its practical implementation in a clinical context is demanding. The European HIV Drug Resistance Panel was established to make recommendations to clinicians and virologists on this topic and to propose quality control measures. The panel recommends resistance testing for the following indications: i) drug-naive patients with acute or recent infection; ii) therapy failure, including suboptimal treatment response, when treatment change is considered; iii) pregnant HIV-1-infected women and paediatric patients with detectable viral load when treatment initiation or change is considered; and iv) genotype source patient when post-exposure prophylaxis is considered. In addition, for drug-naive patients with chronic infection in whom treatment is to be started, the panel suggests that resistance testing should be strongly considered and recommends testing the earliest sample for drug resistance if suspicion of resistance is high or prevalence of resistance in this population exceeds 10%. The panel does not favour genotyping over phenotype, however it is anticipated that genotyping will be used more often because of its greater accessibility, lower cost and faster turnaround time. For the interpretation of resistance data, clinically validated systems should be used to the greatest extent possible. It is mandatory that laboratories performing HIV resistance tests take regular part in quality assurance programs. Similarly, it is necessary that HIV clinicians and virologists take part in continuous education and meet regularly to discuss problematic clinical cases. Indeed, resistance test results should be used in the context of all other clinically relevant information for predicting therapy response. The panel also encourages the timely collection of epidemiological information to estimate the impact of transmission of resistant HIV and the prevalence of HIV-1 non-B subtypes in the different European countries.

Whereas previously the output of HIV resistance tests has been based on therapeutically arbitrary criteria, there is now an ongoing move towards correlating test interpretation with virological outcomes on treatment. This approach is undeniably superior, in principle, for tests intended to guide drug choices. However the predictive accuracy of a given stratagem that links genotype or phenotype to drug response is strongly influenced by the study design, data capture and analytical methodology used to derive it. For genotyping, the most widely used resistance tool in clinical practice, these considerations are further complicated by the range of mutational patterns present in the treated population. There is no definitively superior methodology for generating a genotype-response association for use in interpreting a resistance test, and the various approaches used to date all have their strengths and weaknesses. This review discusses the processes involved in constructing such tools, with particular emphasis on establishing validated mutation score rules, and examines the key issues and confounding factors that influence predictive accuracy outside the originating dataset. Since the size of the sample is a key influence on the statistical power to determine an effect, it is hoped that a greater understanding of the influence of study design and methodology will assist the development of standardized outcome measures and reporting formats that allow data pooling at the international level.

Objectives: To assess the rate of change in viral load and CD4 count over time in HIV-infected patients experiencing virological failure on a HAART regimen., Design: Study population included patients from EuroSIDA, a large, multicentre, observational study enrolling HIV-infected patients across Europe., Methods: Median change in viral load and CD4 count per month were estimated using the viral load and CD4 measurements obtained over a 12-month period after confirmed virological failure between 3 and 4 log10 copies/ml in a population of 488 HIV-infected patients who were left on a failing HAART regimen., Results: The estimated median viral load change in our study population was 0.024 log10 copies/ml per month, statistically different from 0 (P=0.0001). In 20.9% of the patients studied viral load showed a tendency to decrease, in 47.8% showed a tendency to increase by a positive rate no higher than 0.04 log10 copies/ml per month and in the remaining 31.3% showed a tendency to increase by a rate greater than 0.04 log10 copies/ml per month. On average, CD4 counts were estimated to remain stable (decrease at a slow rate of about -0.53 cells/microl per month)., Conclusions: In patients that remained on a stable, but virologically failing HAART regimen (with viral load ranging 1000-10000 copies/ml), the viral load over the ensuing 12-month period increased at a relatively slow rate. In contrast, the CD4 count remained stable, possibly because of partial but sustained viral suppression below the viral load natural set-point. The time-course of selecting more replication-competent virus in patients with virological failure remains to be fully clarified.

This study evaluated 1433 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), 409 (28%) of whom had prior nucleoside experience and achieved an HIV load of <400 copies/mL by 24 weeks of therapy. Three hundred seven patients experienced virus rebound during a total of 2773.3 person-years of follow-up. There was a higher rate of virus rebound among the patients with pre-HAART nucleoside experience (relative hazard [RH], 2.86; 95% confidence interval, 2.22-3.84; P<.0001) and a decreasing rate of virus rebound with increasing duration of virus suppression (i.e., time since achieving a virus load of <400 HIV RNA copies/mL) among both the nucleoside-experienced and naive patients (P<.0001), but the difference between the groups persisted into the third year of follow-up (P=.0007). Even patients who had experienced <2 months of nucleoside therapy before beginning HAART had an increased risk of virus rebound (RH, 1.95; P=.009). It appears that only a small period of pre-HAART nucleoside therapy is sufficient to confer a disadvantage, in terms of risk of virus rebound, that persists for several years.

This study prospectively assessed the impact of treatment modality, virus load, and CD4 cell count of <50 cells/mm(3) on human immunodeficiency virus disease progression. The incidence rate of new AIDS disease or death was 54.8 (95% confidence interval, 48.7-59.9) per 100 person-years of follow-up. Independent predictors related to progression were latest CD4 cell count (relative risk [RR], 0.84/10 mm(3) higher; P<.0001), latest hemoglobin level (RR, 0.79/g/L higher; P<.0001), Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia prophylaxis (RR, 0.49; P<.0001), latest body mass index (RR, 0.93/kg/m(2) higher; P=.002), latest virus load (RR, 1.11/log(10) higher; P=.03), and intensity of treatment (RR, 1.82, P=.004; RR 2.27, P<.0001; RR 2.46, P=.0001; RR 2.33 P<.0006; 5.10, P<.0001, respectively, for 4, 3, 2, 1, or no drugs vs. >or=5 drugs). Although reverse causality cannot be excluded, more intense antiviral treatment appears to decrease the risk of progression in immunocompromised patients.

Background: Relatively little is known about the long-term durability of viral suppression in individuals initially achieving a viral load of less than 50 copies/ml within 24 weeks of starting antiretroviral therapy, nor the extent to which therapy interruption accounts for the loss of suppression., Methods: We intensely followed all 336 antiretroviral-naive patients attending the Goethe Universitat Clinic who began multi-drug combination regimens and in whom a viral load of less than 50 copies/ml was achieved within 24 weeks, in order to assess the risk of viral load rebound. Inspection of case notes allowed the distinction of viral rebound according to whether there was an associated complete interruption of therapy., Results: A total of 61 patients experienced viral rebound during 543.1 person-years of follow-up, giving a 25.3% risk of rebound by 3.3 years from first achieving viral suppression. However, for 47 of the patients with viral rebound there was an associated documented complete interruption of antiretroviral therapy, mostly as a result of co-morbidities, leaving 14 who appear to represent a failure of the virological efficacy of therapy (viral breakthrough; 5.2% risk by 3.3 years). The risk of viral breakthrough declined with the increased duration of suppression (P = 0.01)., Conclusion: The intrinsic virological effectiveness of multi-drug antiretroviral therapy in previously drug-naive individuals appears to be such that viral suppression, once achieved, can be maintained for several years in patients not interrupting therapy. The major challenge is to develop regimens that can be taken consistently and safely for such long periods of time.

Context: It is unclear whether delay in initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) may lead to a poorer viral load response for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)., Objective: To characterize the relationship of viral load response to ART with baseline CD4 cell count and baseline viral load., Design: Inception cohort of 3430 therapy-naive patients with HIV, of whom 3226 patients had at least 1 viral load count after the start of ART., Setting: Three cohort studies of patients cared for in HIV clinics in Europe between 1996 and 2000., Patients: All patients initiating ART consisting of at least 3 drugs initiated in or after 1996 and for whom CD4 cell count and viral load were available in the prior 6 months (at most)., Main Outcome Measures: Viral load decrease to below 500 copies/mL; viral load rebound to above 500 copies/mL (2 consecutive values)., Results: Of 3226 patients during the median follow-up of 119 weeks, 2741 (85%) experienced viral suppression to less than 500 copies/mL by 32 weeks. Relative hazards (RHs) of achieving this were 1.08 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98-1.21) and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.84-1.04) for baseline CD4 cell counts between 200 and 349 x 10(6)/L and baseline CD4 cell counts lower than 200 x 10(6)/L, respectively, compared with baseline CD4 cell counts of 350 x 10(6)/L or higher, after adjustment for several factors including baseline viral load. For baseline viral load, the RHs were 0.95 (95% CI, 0.84-1.07) and 0.65 (95% CI, 0.58-0.74), for 10 000 to 99 999 and 100 000 copies/mL or greater, respectively, compared with less than 10 000 copies/mL, but the probability of viral load lower than 500 copies/mL at week 32 was similar in all 3 groups. Subsequent rebound above 500 copies/mL was no more likely with a lower baseline CD4 cell count or higher viral load., Conclusion: In this study, lower CD4 cell counts and higher viral loads at baseline were not associated with poorer virological outcome of ART. Those with baseline viral loads of greater than 100 000 copies/mL had a slower rate of achieving viral suppression.

Objectives: To examine the natural phenotypic variability in drug susceptibility among recombinant HIV-1 isolates from a large number of untreated HIV-positive individuals from wide-ranging geographic locations, and to use this information to establish biologically relevant cut-off values for phenotypic antiretroviral susceptibility testing., Methods: Phenotypic susceptibility to 14 antiretroviral agents was determined for HIV-1 samples from > 1000 treatment-naive individuals in seven clinical trials. Samples were from the USA (n = 351), Germany (n = 306), Canada (n = 265), and South Africa (n = 358). Geometric mean fold-resistance and confidence intervals were determined relative to a standard laboratory wild-type virus., Results: Baseline fold-resistance was approximately log-normally distributed for all antiretroviral agents examined. There was no evidence of large geographical differences in average antiviral susceptibility. Geometric mean fold-resistance for each of 14 antiviral agents was similar (+/- 0.5-fold) for samples derived from the USA, Canada, Germany, or South Africa. The non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) exhibited the broadest distribution of susceptibility; approximately 97.5% of all isolates had < 2.5-4.0, < 3.0-4.5, and < 5-10 fold-decrease in susceptibility to five protease inhibitors, six nucleoside analogues, and three NNRTI, respectively. No consistent geographic pattern or clade effect (B versus C) in either the mean or the distribution of baseline antiretroviral susceptibility was observed., Conclusions: Phenotypic drug susceptibility of HIV-1 in untreated individuals varies markedly from drug to drug, with broadly similar patterns world-wide. These results have important implications in defining the 'normal range' of phenotypic susceptibility to antiretroviral agents and establish biologically relevant cut-off values for this phenotypic drug susceptibility test.

The presence of the lamivudine-associated M184V RT mutation increases tenofovir susceptibility in multiple HIV genotypes. Tenofovir is uniquely active against multinucleoside-resistant HIV expressing the Q151M mutation, but shows reduced susceptibility to the T69S insertion mutations. HIV with common forms of zidovudine and lamivudine resistance are susceptible to tenofovir, corroborating phase II clinical results demonstrating the activity of tenofovir DF in treatment-experienced patients.

The availability of protease inhibitors (PIs) and their combination with nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors marked the passage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) from potential for control to effective suppression and thus substantially reduced rates of morbidity and mortality related to HIV. Even so, what was first hoped to be an immutable HIV DNA treatment target has proved to be prone to resistance mutations, with substitutions identified at more than 20 amino acid sites, which reduces PI susceptibility and increases resistance to treatment. The mutation patterns associated with each PI have been defined, and have been observed to occur at one of two locations: at or near the active site, or in the substrate cleavage site. The natural history of PI resistance has been extensively studied, and the genetic and cellular pathways are described in detail in this article. In addition, cross-resistance among PIs is now recognized to be fairly extensive, although the degree of cross-resistance varies with the number of mutations and the variants selected by drug pressure. Thus, it is still possible to salvage a response with another PI after a first regimen with another PI has failed. The extensive basic science and clinical experience with PIs in the fight against HIV are reviewed in this article, which provides data on resistance-mutation profiles, cellular resistance mechanisms, viral fitness studies, and clinical outcome trials with various first-line and subsequent regimens that contain PIs. It is hoped that the information provided will guide physicians in best using PIs as part of a logical and successful ART strategy.

The consequences of treatment interruptions have been investigated in various patient populations. For patients with controlled viraemia, treatment interruption allowing viral rebound may boost HIV-1-specific immunity. The hypothesis that this will be sufficient to control HIV replication in the absence of treatment has received support in studies of patients initiating treatment during primary infections. In patients with chronic infection, treatment interruption has been shown to boost HIV-1-specific immunity in some cases. In patients with virological failure, despite drug-resistant virus, treatment appears to provide benefit, in that interruption results in a decrease in the CD4 cell count and increases in plasma HIV-1-RNA levels. The removal of drug pressure allows the rapid shift to wild-type virus. Whether this will be of benefit to the patient is not clear. Treatment interruption may help reduce the accumulation of long-term toxicities.

Objectives: To describe the viral response to HAART by weeks 4 and 8 in previously antiretroviral-naive patients. To assess whether the weeks 4 or 8 viral loads are useful predictors of viral suppression by week 24., Design: A large clinical database including 453 antiretroviral-naive patients whose plasma viral load was monitored every 4 weeks., Methods: Observed probabilities of achieving a viral load < or = 500 copies/ml by week 24 (days 84-168) from starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) were calculated according to viral loads at weeks 4 and 8., Results: A total of 42.4% of patients (153/361) reached < or = 500 copies/ml viral load by week 4 and 70.4% (245/348) by week 8. Viral suppression below 500 copies/ml by 4-8 weeks was similar irrespective of the pre-HAART viral load. In patients with viral loads above 10000 copies/ml at week 4, 60.6% (20/33) achieved < or = 500 copies/ml by week 24. In patients with viral loads still above 10000 copies/ml at week 8, only 42.3% (11/26) achieved < or = 500 copies/ml by week 24, and only 33.3% (3/9) maintained viral suppression below 500 copies/ml to week 48., Conclusion: Viral loads at weeks 4 and 8 should be monitored to detect early signs of low subsequent viral suppression. For previously antiretroviral-naive patients whose viral loads after 8 weeks of HAART are still above 10000, there is an urgent need to assess adherence to therapy, drug levels and resistance, so management can be modified accordingly to reduce the rate of week 24 virological failure.

A variety of key mutations in HIV reverse transcriptase (RT) have been associated with nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) exposure, which give rise to a diverse range of effects in terms of altered drug susceptibilities, viral replicative capacity and RT biochemistry. There are three basic mechanisms of resistance conferred by specific mutations in the coding region of RT. The first is drug discrimination, whereby a particular drug or drugs are either selectively excluded from uptake or from the RT-primer-template catalytic complex. Drug discrimination is, for the most part, relatively specific for individual drugs. Repositioning of the template-primer to prevent a catalytically competent complex in the presence of a bound drug molecule has also been observed in some instances, and forms a second mechanism. The third, and potentially most significant for long-term efficacy of the NRTIs, is pyrophosphorolysis, the primary mode of resistance to zidovudine. Mutations selected by this drug or stavudine serve to elevate the natural rate of the reverse reaction for RT. Pyrophosphorolysis uncouples the last nucleoside monophosphate added to the proviral transcript, and attaches it to either a free pyrophosphate (regenerating a deoxynucleoside triphosphate) or to a nucleoside di- or triphosphate (usually ATP). Uncoupling a chain-terminating NRTI residue therefore rescues reverse transcription and reduces drug susceptibility across the class, since the process is not specific for the selecting drug. Of all the nucleoside-associated mutations, the best known and most studied are the six associated with thymidine analogue exposure. These six mutations (M41L, D67N, K70R, L210W, T215Y/F, K219Q) enhance RT pyrophosphorolysis to confer high-level viral resistance to zidovudine, and clinically significant loss of response to stavudine and didanosine. They have also been found to confer reduced susceptibility to lamivudine and abacavir, particularly when present alongside other NRTI-induced changes. Other key mutations generally confer more limited resistance to specific agents, although the primary lamivudine- and abacavir-associated M184V substitution generates a broad spectrum of drug-dependent phenotypes, and uncommon mutational complexes conferring resistance across the entire class are well known. In addition to 'classical' multi-nucleoside-resistant genotypes, database-driven 'virtual phenotyping' for accumulations of NRTI-associated mutations around a core of thymidine analogue-induced changes predicts drug susceptibilities below wild-type across the entire NRTI class, even in the absence of key mutations associated with individual agents. When the natural range of drug susceptibilities for treatment-naive isolates is used as the basis for defining resistance, retrospective analysis of clinical isolates in the Virco database shows a significantly increased incidence of reduced susceptibility for the dideoxy NRTIs (didanosine, stavudine and zalcitabine) that was undetected in previous assays. These data imply a cumulative degradation of response to

Objective: To analyse the immunological and virological effects of treatment interruptions in HIV-1-infected patients with treatment failure and multidrug-resistant virus., Methods: Drug susceptibility was assessed using Antivirogram and genotypic analysis was based on population and clonal sequencing for 48 patients who had interrupted treatment (> or = 2 months)., Results: Treatment interruption resulted in viral load increases (mean 0.7 log 10 copies/ ml; P = 0.0001) and CD4 cell count decreases (mean 89 x 10(6) cells/l; P = 0.0001). A complete shift to wild-type virus at the phenotypic, genotypic and clonal level was observed in 28/45 patients. These patients differed from those that did not show a shift to wild type in baseline CD4 cell counts (192 versus 59 x 10(6) cells/l; P= 0.007) and in the relationship between baseline viral load and CD4 cell count (no correlation versus a significant negative correlation; P= 0.008). Response to re-initiation of treatment fell with increasing viral load [relative hazard (RH) 0.33; P= 0.001] and with increasing total number of drugs with reduced susceptibility (RH 0.51; P = 0.0003); it improved with the number of new drugs received (RH 2.12; P = 0.0002) and a shift to wild type (RH 5.22, P = 0.006)., Conclusions: Changes in surrogate markers suggest that treatment provided benefit in spite of virological failure and resistant virus. Although patients with a shift to wildtype virus responded better in the short term to treatment re-initiation, the long-term effects are not known and the risk of immune deterioration needs to be carefully considered.

Cellular cytoplasmatic thymidine kinase 1 (TK1) catalyzes the intracellular phosphorylation of anti-HIV-1 nucleoside analogs zidovudine (AZT) and stavudine (d4T) to the corresponding monophosphate form. In HIV-1-infected patients, treated with combination therapy including one of these compounds for more than 1 year, enzymatic activity of TK1 in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) was determined by radioactive assay. TK1 activity in PBMC of HIV-1-infected patients correlated with CD4 cell count (r = 0.4, p<0.05) and HIV-1 RNA copy number (r = 0.4, p<0.05), being lower in patients with decreased CD4 cell count and high viral load. Furthermore,TK1 activity differs between HIV-1-infected individuals treated for more than 6 months (13.5 pmol/mg/h) compared to patients treated for less than 6 months (28.1 pmol/mg/h; p<0.05) with chemotherapeutic agents including thymidine analogs. The results demonstrate that TK1 deficiency in PBMC of HIV-1 infected patients may develop due to continuous treatment with thymidine analogs and correlates with a more progressed stage of disease expressed as diminished CD4 cell count and increased viral load.

Objectives: To monitor the response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) over time and the proportions of patients with poor virological control in order to help provide some insight into drug resistance., Design: Analysis of data from the EuroSIDA study; an observational study initiated in 1994 of almost 8500 patients with HIV from across Europe., Methods: Patients who initiated HAART, and had both a CD4 lymphocyte count and viral load measured in the 3 months prior to starting HAART, were included in analyses. The proportion of patients with a poor virological response (defined as a viral load of > 10,000 copies/ml, using either a single measure or two consecutive measures) at 16 and 48 weeks was determined. Multivariate logistical regression was used to determine the factors associated with a poor virological response at both time points., Results: Median CD4 cell count at starting HAART was 218 cells/mm3 [interquartile range (IQR), 113-327 cells/mm3] and median viral load was 4.36 log10 copies/ml (IQR, 3.57-5.04 log10 copies/ml). At 16 weeks, 16% had a viral load of > 10,000 copies/ml based on a single viral load measure and 10% if the more stringent definition of two consecutive viral loads above this level was used. At 48 weeks these proportions were 19% and 13%, respectively. Compared with patients from Southern Europe, patients from both Central and Northern Europe had approximately half the chance of a poor virological response at 16 weeks (odds ratios 0.53 and 0.47, P = 0.0015 and P < 0.0001, respectively), while at 48 weeks both regions still had approximately a 25% reduced chance of a poor virological response, but this was no longer statistically significant (odds ratio 0.77 and 0.75, P = 0.17 and P = 0.13, respectively)., Conclusions: There were marked difference in virological response to HAART across regions of Europe, which may be partly explained by regional differences in access to HAART and utilisation. If drug resistance is closely related to virological failure, these results may help to provide an early insight into the potential problem of drug resistance across Europe. Continued follow-up is essential to monitor patients with poor virological control.

We describe a new human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) mutational pattern associated with phenotypic resistance to lamivudine (3TC) in the absence of the characteristic replacement of methionine by valine at position 184 (M184V) of reverse transcriptase. Combined genotypic and phenotypic analyses of clinical isolates revealed the presence of moderate levels of phenotypic resistance (between 4- and 50-fold) to 3TC in a subset of isolates that did not harbor the M184V mutation. Mutational cluster analysis and comparison with the phenotypic data revealed a significant correlation between moderate phenotypic 3TC resistance and an increased incidence of replacement of glutamic acid by aspartic acid or alanine and of valine by isoleucine at residues 44 and 118 of reverse transcriptase, respectively. This occurred predominantly in those isolates harboring zidovudine resistance-associated mutations (41L, 215Y). The requirement of the combination of mutations 41L and 215Y with mutations 44D and 44A and/or 118I for phenotypic 3TC resistance was confirmed by site-directed mutagenesis experiments. These data support the assumption that HIV-1 may have access to several different genetic pathways to escape drug pressure or that the increase in the frequency of particular mutations may affect susceptibility to drugs that have never been part of a particular regimen.

To assess the relation between resistance to antiretroviral drugs for treatment of HIV-1 infection and virological response to therapy, results from 12 different studies were re-analysed according to a standard data analysis plan. These studies included nine clinical trials and three observational cohorts. The primary end-point in our analyses was virological failure by week 24. Baseline factors that were investigated as predictors of virological failure were plasma HIV-1 RNA, the number and type of new antiretroviral drugs in the regimen, and viral susceptibility to the drugs in the regimen, determined by genotyping or phenotyping methods. These analyses confirmed the importance of both genotypic and phenotypic drug resistance as predictors of virological failure, whether these factors were analysed separately or adjusted for other baseline confounding factors. In most of the re-analysed studies, the odds of virological failure were reduced by about twofold for each additional drug in the regimen to which the patient's virus was sensitive by genotyping methods, and by about two- to threefold for each additional drug that was sensitive by phenotyping.

Objective: To assess the relationship between viral susceptibility at baseline and virological response in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients treated with multi-drug salvage regimens after multiple previous treatment failures., Design: Retrospective analysis of 50 patients from the Frankfurt HIV cohort who had received treatment with a minimum of six drugs, and for whom a sample for baseline viral phenotyping was available., Methods: Viral drug susceptibility was measured retrospectively from stored samples using the Antivirogram, a recombinant virus assay based method. Virological response was defined as a viral load of < 400 copies/ml at week 24. For analysis of treatment response, drop-outs were dealt with in two ways, either as failures (DAF) or censored (DAC). Several logistical regression models were applied to identify predictors of response, including baseline virus load, number of new drugs and phenotypic sensitivity scores., Results: At baseline, drug resistance was extensive: 96% of patients had viruses resistant to at least one drug class and 32% had viruses resistant to all three drug classes. In the DAF analysis, 39 patients experienced virological failure. In the DAC analysis, eight were censored and 31 patients experienced virological failure. In multivariate models that adjust for baseline viral load, the number of new drugs and total phenotypic sensitivity scores, the baseline viral load and phenotypic sensitivity score remained significantly associated with virological outcome, whereas in those adjusted for baseline viral load, the number of new drugs, NRTI phenotypic sensitivity score and PI phenotypic sensitivity score, only the latter remained significantly associated with virological outcome. Both the DAF and DAC analyses produced similar results. In all models used, virological failure was shown to be significantly associated with baseline viral load and phenotypic sensitivity score., Conclusions: In this retrospective analysis based on a small number of patients, viral drug susceptibility at baseline was strongly associated with virological outcome at 24 weeks, independent of covariates such as baseline viral load and treatment history. Baseline viral load also maintained a significant, independent association with virological outcome in most models.

Effective therapeutic interventions and clinical care of adults infected with HIV-1 require an understanding of factors that influence time of response to antiretroviral therapy. We have studied a cohort of 118 HIV-1-infected subjects naive to antiretroviral therapy and have correlated the time of response to treatment with a series of virological and immunological measures, including levels of viral load in blood and lymph node, percent of CD4 T cells in lymph nodes, and CD4 T-cell count in blood at study entry. Suppression of viremia below the limit of detection, 50 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL of plasma, served as a benchmark for a successful virological response. We employed these correlations to predict the length of treatment required to attain a virological response in each patient. Baseline plasma viremia emerged as the factor most tightly correlated with the duration of treatment required, allowing us to estimate the required time as a function of this one measure.

Recently, combinations of antiretroviral drugs (highly active antiretroviral therapy [HAART]) have led to a dramatic reduction of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-related clinical symptoms. Success of treatment is defined as almost complete suppression of plasma viremia, although in a sizable fraction of patients this goal is not achieved. We characterized primary HIV-1 isolates from 2 cohorts of patients in which HAART failed in terms of viral suppression. One cohort showed clinical benefit and stable or increasing CD4+ T cell numbers despite high viral load. The second viremic cohort had no CD4+ T cell recovery and exhibited typical AIDS-related symptoms. Primary isolates from HAART patients with minor clinical symptoms used CXCR4 as the most relevant receptor on primary cells. Thus, for the first time, it is shown that patients improving clinically under HAART harbor relatively high viral loads with viruses preferring CXCR4 as coreceptor.

The association between CD4 cell count and duration of virus load suppression was investigated in 558 patients in the Frankfurt HIV Clinic Cohort who had begun highly active antiretroviral therapy and who had virus load declines to 500 copies/mL; P=.0001). Baseline virus load was not associated with virus load rebound. Lower baseline CD4 cell counts were associated with increased risk of viral rebound; however, this risk was significantly reduced in persons with low baseline CD4 cell counts who experienced substantial increases in CD4 cell counts during follow-up.

To investigate the occurrence of multinucleoside analog resistance during therapy failure, we surveyed the drug susceptibilities and genotypes of nearly 900 human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) samples. For 302 of these, the 50% inhibitory concentrations of at least four of the approved nucleoside analogs had fourfold-or-greater increases. Genotypic analysis of the reverse transcriptase (RT)-coding regions from these samples revealed complex mutational patterns, including the previously recognized codon 151 multidrug resistance cluster. Surprisingly, high-level multinucleoside resistance was associated with a diverse family of amino acid insertions in addition to "conventional" point mutations. These insertions were found between RT codons 67 and 70 and were commonly 69Ser-(Ser-Ser) or 69Ser-(Ser-Gly). Treatment history information showed that a common factor for the development of these variants was AZT (3'-azido-3'-deoxythymidine, zidovudine) therapy in combination with 2',3'-dideoxyinosine or 2',3'-dideoxycytidine, although treatment patterns varied considerably. Site-directed mutagenesis studies confirmed that 69Ser-(Ser-Ser) in an AZT resistance mutational background conferred simultaneous resistance to multiple nucleoside analogs. The insertions are located in the "fingers" domain of RT. Modelling the 69Ser-(Ser-Ser) insertion into the RT structure demonstrated the profound direct effect that this change is likely to have in the nucleoside triphosphate binding site of the enzyme. Our data highlight the increasing problem of HIV-1 multidrug resistance and underline the importance of continued resistance surveillance with appropriate, sufficiently versatile genotyping technology and phenotypic drug susceptibility analysis.

Objective: HIV-induced CD4 lymphocyte depletion is partially reversed by antiretroviral therapy but it is unclear if the degree to which the CD4 count rises depends on viral suppression (if so, the extent of viral suppression required to achieve a maximal CD4 count rise), whether the rise is sustainable and whether it occurs in patients with CD4 count <10 x 10(6) cells/l. We aimed to address these issues., Methods: We studied CD4 count and plasma HIV RNA values every 4 weeks for 72 weeks in 154 patients starting indinavir-containing regimens., Results: Mean baseline HIV RNA and CD4 count were 4.8 log10 copies/ml and 180 x 10(6) cells/l, respectively. Overall, there was a mean increase in CD4 count of 143 x 10(6) cells/l by 72 weeks. The adjusted mean increase (adjusted for initial viral load, CD4 count and age) was strongly related to the mean viral suppression over the follow-up period (P < 0.0001). Importantly, there was a highly significant difference (P = 0.0004) in the rise in CD4 count between those with 2-3 log suppression (161 x 10(6) cells/l) and those with > 3 log suppression (314 x 10(6) cells/l; mean 3.6 log suppression in this group), suggesting that with even greater suppression the rise in CD4 lymphocytes may be still larger. We also studied whether CD4 counts were still rising after 72 weeks in patients with sustained suppression of at least 3 log in viral load. There was a significant (P = 0.004; paired t-test) rise in count of 43 x 10(6) cells/l between weeks 64 and 72 in these patients, suggesting that regeneration continues at least up to 72 weeks after therapy, provided virus replication continues to be suppressed. Patients with initial CD4 counts < 10 x 10(6) cells/l experienced no smaller rises than those at higher levels, even after adjustment for other factors., Conclusion: These results strongly support a direct causal relationship between HIV replication and CD4 lymphocyte count depletion. The rise in those with > 3 log suppression provides the best available indicator of the potential for natural CD4 regeneration in HIV-infected patients. However, since still greater CD4 count rises may be seen with more suppressive regimens, it may not be possible to study the intrinsic CD4 regenerative capacity until such regimens are available.

Background: The effect of previous CD4 cell count nadir on clinical progression in patients with increases in CD4 cell counts has not been investigated., Objective: To assess risk for progression of HIV disease in patients with CD4 counts of at least 200 cells/mm3 (stratified by the lowest previous CD4 count) and compare the rate of progression in patients with CD4 counts less than 50 cells/mm3 with that in patients whose CD4 counts rebounded from less than 50 cells/mm3 to at least 200 cells/mm3., Design: Prospective, observational multicenter study., Setting: 52 HIV outpatient clinics in Europe., Patients: Two groups were identified: those with CD4 counts of at least 200 cells/mm3 (group A) and those with CD4 counts less than 50 cells/mm3 (group B). Group A was stratified according to the lowest previous CD4 count: at least 150 cells/mm3 (stratum 1), 100 to 149 cells/mm3 (stratum 2), 50 to 99 cells/mm3 (stratum 3), and 1 to 50 cells/mm3 (stratum 4)., Measurements: Patients were followed until a progression event occurred (first AIDS-defining event, new AIDS-defining event, or death) or until the CD4 count decreased to less than 200 cells/mm3 (group A) or increased to more than 50 cells/mm3 (group B). Incidence rates were based on a patient-years analysis and reported as events per 100 patient-years of follow-up; the relative hazards for progression were based on Cox proportional hazards models., Results: The overall rate of disease progression in group A was 3.9 per 100 patient-years (95% CI, 3.5 to 4.3 per 100 patient-years), whereas in group B it was much higher (72.9 per 100 patient-years [CI, 69.0 to 76.8 per 100 patient-years]). In group A, the rate increased in patients with previous low CD4 cell count nadirs, resulting in a significant increase in the relative hazard for progression. The relative hazards for strata 2, 3, and 4 were 2.29 (CI, 1.30 to 4.03), 3.65 (CI, 1.94 to 6.85), and 2.94 (CI, 1.44 to 6.00), respectively., Conclusions: Increases in CD4 counts from very low levels to at least 200 cells/mm3 are associated with a much reduced rate of disease progression. However, a previously low CD4 cell count nadir remains associated with a moderately higher risk for disease progression among patients with CD4 counts of at least 200 cells/mm3.

Objective: New antiretroviral strategies aim to reduce plasma HIV RNA (viral load) to below the limits of detectability of assays with the objective of reducing viral replication in order to stop or reverse the pathogenic process and prevent development of drug resistance. First use of a protease inhibitor might offer the most realistic chance of achieving this aim. Our objective was to study the virological response to protease inhibitors in patients taking them for the first time., Methods: A total of 901 patients from a large outpatient clinic were followed a mean of 15 months from the time of starting a protease inhibitor until 1 May 1998. Viral load and CD4 cell count measurements were made on average every 34 days., Results: Overall there was a 79% [95% confidence interval (CI), 76-82] probability of the patients achieving a viral load < 500 copies/ml by 24 weeks after starting the protease inhibitor. In a multiple Cox regression model, those with lower initial viral load [relative hazard (RH), 0.72; P < 0.0001], higher CD4 cell count (RH, 1.07; P = 0.002), those starting other new drugs at same time as the protease inhibitor (RH, 1.46 for two versus none; P = 0.003), those who were antiretroviral-naive, and those using indinavir or nelfinavir were more likely to achieve such levels. In those 651 patients achieving viral load < 500 copies/ml within 24 weeks, there was an estimated 53% (95% CI, 51-55) probability of rebound of viral load to > 500 copies/ml by 52 weeks from the first undetectable value. Again, those who had started other new drugs at the same time as the protease inhibitor (RH, 0.57; P = 0.003 for starting two versus none) tended to experience a lower probability of viral load rebound, as did those with higher initial CD4 cell count (RH, 0.87 per 100 x 10(6)/l higher; P = 0.0007). Those who took saquinavir achieved less durable virological responses than those who took other protease inhibitors., Conclusions: Starting protease inhibitor therapy with two other new antiretroviral drugs simultaneously with protease inhibitor therapy offers a better best chance of achieving sustained viral load < 500 copies/ml than starting fewer new drugs.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) strains resistant to nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) may easily be selected for in vitro and in vivo under a suboptimal therapy regimen. Although cross-resistance is extensive within this class of compounds, newer NNRTIs were reported to retain activity against laboratory strains containing defined resistance-associated mutations. We have characterized HIV-1 resistance to loviride and the extent of cross-resistance to nevirapine, delavirdine, efavirenz, HBY-097, and tivirapine in a set of 24 clinical samples from patients treated with long-term loviride monotherapy by using a recombinant virus assay. Genotypic changes associated with resistance were analyzed by population sequencing. Overall, phenotypic resistance to loviride ranged from 0.04 to 3.47 log10-fold. Resistance was observed in samples from patients who had discontinued loviride for up to 27 months. Cross-resistance to the other compounds was extensive; however, fold resistance to efavirenz was significantly lower than fold resistance to nevirapine. No genotypic changes were detected in three samples; these were sensitive to all of the NNRTIs tested. The most common genotypic change was the K103N substitution. The range of phenotypic resistance in samples containing the K103N substitution could not be predicted from a genotypic analysis of known NNRTI resistance-associated mutations. The Y181C substitution was detected in one isolate which was resistant to loviride and delavirdine but sensitive to efavirenz, HBY-097, and tivirapine. Our data indicate that the available newer NNRTIs which retain activity against some HIV-1 strains selected by other compounds of this class in vitro may have compromised clinical efficacy in some patients pretreated with NNRTI.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) strains dually resistant to zidovudine and lamivudine (3TC) may arise during zidovudine-3TC combination therapy. The objective of this cross-sectional study (n = 43 patients) was to test the association between therapy response (clinical and immunologic) to zidovudine-3TC and the level of phenotypic zidovudine resistance and zidovudine resistance-associated genotype of 3TC-resistant isolates. Other variables included were baseline CD4+ cell count, baseline Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) classification, virus load, and time receiving zidovudine. Phenotypic resistance was assessed using a recombinant virus assay. Genotypic analysis was based on population sequencing of plasma HIV-1. In a univariate analysis using a logistic regression model, it was found that therapy response was significantly associated with phenotypic and genotypic zidovudine resistance, baseline CD4+ cell count, and virus load. After adjustment for all variables, phenotypic resistance to zidovudine remained the only significantly associated factor, independent of baseline CD4+ cell count, baseline CDC classification, and virus load.

Objective: To investigate the prevalence and magnitude of M184V-mediated changes in susceptibility to zalcitabine, didanosine, stavudine and abacavir (1592U89 succinate) in a cohort of lamivudine-treated patients., Design and Methods: A total of 255 samples from patients treated with lamivudine and zidovudine with or without other nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) were analysed for susceptibility to zidovudine, lamivudine, zalcitabine, didanosine and stavudine using a recombinant virus assay. Seventy-three samples originated from patients exposed to zidovudine and lamivudine only. A subset of 27 samples was investigated for cross-resistance to abacavir. Resistance was defined as a change in median inhibitory concentration more than fivefold compared with wild-type (high-level resistance, > 10-fold). A genotypic analysis of plasma-derived reverse transcriptase coding regions was carried out in samples with cross-resistance., Results: The majority of samples displayed wild-type or greater than wild-type sensitivity to zalcitabine, didanosine and stavudine: resistance was seen in 17.2, 9 and 6.3% of the total sample population, respectively. Of these, 1.2, 2.7 and 2.4%, respectively, showed high-level resistance. The prevalence of resistance to a particular NRTI was lower in samples from patients not pretreated with that NRTI and in samples from patients exposed to zidovudine-lamivudine only. Cross-resistance was more prevalent in samples with high ZDV resistance. There was no obvious correlation between cross-resistance and genotype; all but two samples were mutant at codon 184. There were no consistent changes at positions associated with zidovudine resistance. The majority of samples from a subset (n=27) were four- to eightfold less sensitive to abacavir. There were no other genotypic changes in addition to M184V known to be associated with abacavir resistance., Conclusions: Cross-resistance was not commonly observed in this lamivudine-treated cohort. M184V per se is not expected to compromise subsequent treatment with NRTI such as didanosine-stavudine or combinations containing abacavir.