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Background: Data on determinants of long-term disease progression in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited in low and middle-income settings., Methods: Effects of current CD4 count, viral load and haemoglobin and diagnosis of AIDS-defining events (ADEs) after start of combination ART (cART) on death and new ADEs were assessed using Poisson regression, in patient aged ≥ 18 years within a multi-centre cohort in Thailand., Results: Among 1,572 patients, median follow-up from cART initiation was 4.4 (IQR 3.6-6.3) years. The analysis of death was based on 60 events during 6,573 person-years; 30/50 (60%) deaths with underlying cause ascertained were attributable to infections. Analysis of new ADE included 192 events during 5,865 person-years; TB and Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia were the most commonly presented first new ADE (35% and 20% of cases, respectively). In multivariable analyses, low current CD4 count after starting cART was the strongest predictor of death and of new ADE. Even at CD4 above 200 cells/mm(3), survival improved steadily with CD4, with mortality rare at ≥ 500 cells/mm(3) (rate 1.1 per 1,000 person-years). Haemoglobin had a strong independent effect, while viral load was weakly predictive with poorer prognosis only observed at ≥ 100,000 copies/ml. Mortality risk increased following diagnosis of ADEs during cART. The decline in mortality rate with duration on cART (from 21.3 per 1,000 person-years within first 6 months to 4.7 per 1,000 person-years at ≥ 36 months) was accounted for by current CD4 count., Conclusions: Patients with low CD4 count or haemoglobin require more intensive diagnostic and treatment of underlying causes. Maintaining CD4 ≥ 500 cells/mm(3) minimizes mortality. However, patient monitoring could potentially be relaxed at high CD4 count if resources are limited. Optimal ART monitoring strategies in low-income settings remain a research priority. Better understanding of the aetiology of anaemia in patients on ART could guide prevention and treatment.

Background: Intrapartum single-dose nevirapine plus third trimester maternal and infant zidovudine are essential components of programs to prevent mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in resource-limited settings. The persistence of nevirapine in the plasma for 3 weeks postpartum risks selection of resistance mutations to nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs). We hypothesized that a 1-month zidovudine-didanosine course initiated at the same time as single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) would prevent the selection of nevirapine-resistance mutations., Methods: HIV-infected pregnant women in the PHPT-4 cohort with CD4 cell counts >250 cells/mm3 received antepartum zidovudine from the third trimester until delivery, sdNVP during labor, and a 1-month zidovudine-didanosine course after delivery. These women were matched on the basis of baseline HIV load, CD4 cell count, and duration of antepartum zidovudine to women who received sdNVP in the PHPT-2 trial (control subjects). Consensus sequencing and the more sensitive oligonucleotide ligation assay were performed on samples obtained on postpartum days 7-10, 37-45, and 120 (if the HIV load was >500 copies/mL) to detect K103N/Y181C/G190A mutations., Results: The 222 PHPT-4 subjects did not differ from matched control subjects in baseline characteristics except for age. The combined group median CD4 cell count was 421 cells/mm3 (interquartile range [IQR], 322-549 cells/mm3), the median HIV load was 3.45 log10 copies/mL (IQR, 2.79-4.00 log10 copies/mL), and the median duration of zidovudine prophylaxis was 10.4 weeks (IQR, 9.1-11.4 weeks). Using consensus sequencing, major NNRTI resistance mutations were detected after delivery in 0% of PHPT-4 subjects and 10.4% of PHPT-2 controls. The oligonucleotide ligation assay detected resistance in 1.8% of PHPT-4 subjects and 18.9% of controls. Major NNRTI resistance mutations were detected by either method in 1.8% of PHPT-4 subjects and 20.7% of controls (P < .001)., Conclusions: A 1-month postpartum course of zidovudine plus didanosine prevented the selection of the vast majority of NNRTI resistance mutations.