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The relationship between antibiotic stewardship and population levels of antibiotic resistance remains unclear. In order to better understand shifts in selective pressure due to stewardship, we use publicly available data to estimate the effect of changes in prescribing on exposures to frequently used antibiotics experienced by potentially pathogenic bacteria that are asymptomatically colonizing the microbiome. We quantify this impact under four hypothetical stewardship strategies. In one scenario, we estimate that elimination of all unnecessary outpatient antibiotic use could avert 6% to 48% (IQR: 17% to 31%) of exposures across pairwise combinations of sixteen common antibiotics and nine bacterial pathogens. All scenarios demonstrate that stewardship interventions, facilitated by changes in clinician behavior and improved diagnostics, have the opportunity to broadly reduce antibiotic exposures across a range of potential pathogens. Concurrent approaches, such as vaccines aiming to reduce infection incidence, are needed to further decrease exposures occurring in 'necessary' contexts., Competing Interests: CT No competing interests declared, YG Has received consulting income from Merck and GlaxoSmithKline, ML Reviewing editor, eLife, (© 2020, Tedijanto et al.)

Bystander selection-the selective pressure for resistance exerted by antibiotics on microbes that are not the target pathogen of treatment-is critical to understanding the total impact of broad-spectrum antibiotic use on pathogenic bacterial species that are often carried asymptomatically. However, to our knowledge, this effect has never been quantified. We quantify bystander selection for resistance for a range of clinically relevant antibiotic-species pairs as the proportion of all antibiotic exposures received by a species for conditions in which that species was not the causative pathogen ("proportion of bystander exposures"). Data sources include the 2010-2011 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey, the Human Microbiome Project, and additional carriage and etiological data from existing literature. For outpatient prescribing in the United States, we find that this proportion over all included antibiotic classes is over 80% for eight of nine organisms of interest. Low proportions of bystander exposure are often associated with infrequent bacterial carriage or concentrated prescribing of a particular antibiotic for conditions caused by the species of interest. Applying our results, we roughly estimate that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination programs result in nearly the same proportional reduction in total antibiotic exposures of Streptococcus pneumoniae , Staphylococcus aureus , and Escherichia coli , despite the latter two organisms not being targeted by the vaccine. These results underscore the importance of considering antibiotic exposures of bystanders, in addition to the target pathogen, in measuring the impact of antibiotic resistance interventions., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest statement: M.L. has received consulting income from Affinivax, Antigen Discovery, Merck, and Pfizer and research grants through Harvard School of Public Health from Pfizer and PATH.