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This study developed a risk assessment tool for contract capacity optimization problems using the ant colony optimization and auto-regression model. Based on the historical data of demand consumption, the Least Square algorithm, the Recursive Levinson–Durbin algorithm, and the Burg algorithm were used to derive the auto-regression model. Then, ant colony optimization was used to search for the auto-regression model's best p-order parameters. To avoid the risk of setting the contract capacity, this paper designed the risk tolerance parameter β to correct the predicted value of the auto-regression model. Ant colony optimization was also used to search for the optimal contract capacity with risk assessment under the two-stage time-of-use and three-stage time-of-use. This study employed an industrial consumer with high voltage power in Taiwan as the research object, used the AR model to estimate the contract capacity under the risk assessment, and cut back electricity usage to reduce the operation cost. The results can be used as a basis to develop an efficient tool for industrial customers to select contract capacities with risks to obtain the best economic benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]