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Background: Despite consecutive decades of success in reducing malaria transmission, Ethiopia went off track towards its goal of malaria elimination by 2030, as outlined in the NMCP malaria strategy. Recent malaria outbreaks in Ethiopia are attributed to the emergence and spread of diagnostic and drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum, increased insecticide resistance in major vectors and the spread of invasive Anopheles stephensi. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, environmental anomalies and internal conflicts have also potentially played a role in increasing malaria transmission. This study aimed to evaluate the contribution of environmental factors and An. stephensi to the spatiotemporal trends of recent malaria cases in Ethiopia., Methods: Clinical malaria case data reported weekly between January 2013 and January 2023 were obtained from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI), Addis Ababa. A negative binomial regression model was used to explain the variability and potential overdispersion in the weekly number of malaria cases reported across Ethiopian administrative zones. This model incorporated fixed effects for selected environmental factors and random effects to capture temporal trends, zone specific seasonal patterns, spatial trends at the zone level, and the presence of An. stephensi and its impact., Results: Our negative binomial regression model highlighted 56% variability in the data and slightly more than half (55%) was due to environmental factors, while the remainder was captured by random effects. A significant nationwide decline in malaria risk was observed between 2013 and 2018, followed by a sharp increase in early 2022. Malaria risk was higher in western and northwestern zones of Ethiopia compared to other zones. Zone-specific seasonal patterns, not explained by environmental factors, were grouped into four clusters of seasonal behaviours. The presence of An. stephensi was not shown to have any significant impact on malaria risk., Conclusions: Understanding the spatial and temporal drivers of malaria transmission and therefore identifying more appropriate malaria control strategies are key to the success of any malaria elimination and eradication programmes in Ethiopia. Our study found that approximately 50% of malaria risk variability could be explained by environmental, temporal, and spatial factors included in the analysis, while the remaining variation was unexplained and may stem from other factors not considered in this study. This highlights the need for a better understanding of underlying factors driving local malaria transmission and outbreaks, to better tailor regional programmatic responses., Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: The study is part of the CEASE (Controlling emergent An. stephensi in Sudan and Ethiopia), the umbrella Project received approval from the National (Ref: 02/256/630/14) and the ALERT/AHRI (Ref: P0-08-22) research ethics committees, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This manuscript used case data made readily available by the Ethiopian Federal Ministry of Health malaria programme (PHEM), thus consent was not necessary. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: No competing interests were declared by the authors., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Ethiopia faces several severe challenges in terms of malaria elimination, including drug resistance and diagnostic evasion in the Plasmodium falciparum parasite, insecticide resistance in the primary Anopheles malaria vector, and, most recently, the invasion of the Asian malaria vector Anopheles stephensi. Novel malaria control methods are therefore needed, and in this paper, we describe the evaluation of a larval source management (LSM) strategy implemented in response to An. stephensi. The primary outcome was the malaria incidence rate compared between intervention and non-intervention sites in the presence of An. stephensi., Methods: Intervention (Batu and Dire Dawa) and control (Metehara) towns were selected, and weekly malaria passive case detection data collected between 2014 and 2023 were obtained from the Oromia regional state and Dire Dawa City Administration Health Bureau. In addition, data regarding intervention were obtained from the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) reports. Weekly malaria passive case data were used to evaluate the change in the estimated malaria incidence rate and trends of temporal patterns of the estimated malaria incidence rate before and after interventions. An interrupted time series model with a cyclic second-order random walk structure periodic seasonal term was used to assess the impact of LSM on malaria incidence rate in the intervention and control settings., Results: An upsurge in malaria cases occurred after 2020 at both the intervention and control sites. The temporal patterns of malaria incidence rate showed an increasing trend after the intervention. The ITS model depicted that the LSM has no impact in reducing the malaria incidence rate at both intervention site Dire Dawa [immediate impact = 1.462 (0.891, 2.035)], [Lasting impact = 0.003 (- 0.012, 0.018)], and Batu [Immediate impact 0.007 (- 0.235, 0.249), [Lasting impact = 0.008 (- 0.003, 0.013)]., Conclusions: An overall increasing trend in the malaria incidence rate was observed irrespective of the implementation of LSM in the urban settings of Ethiopia, where An. stephensi has been found. Further investigations and validations of the incorporation of LSM into control activities are warranted., Competing Interests: Declarations. Ethics approval and consent to participate: Not applicable. Consent for publication: Not applicable. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Endemic African malaria vectors are poorly adapted to typical urban ecologies. However, Anopheles stephensi, an urban malaria vector formerly confined to South Asia and the Persian Gulf, was recently detected in Africa and may change the epidemiology of malaria across the continent. Little is known about the public health implications of An. stephensi in Africa. This study is designed to assess the relative importance of household exposure to An. stephensi and endemic malaria vectors for malaria risk in urban Sudan and Ethiopia., Methods: Case-control studies will be conducted in 3 urban settings (2 in Sudan, 1 in Ethiopia) to assess the association between presence of An. stephensi in and around households and malaria. Cases, defined as individuals positive for Plasmodium falciparum and/or P. vivax by microscopy/rapid diagnostic test (RDT), and controls, defined as age-matched individuals negative for P. falciparum and/or P. vivax by microscopy/RDT, will be recruited from public health facilities. Both household surveys and entomological surveillance for adult and immature mosquitoes will be conducted at participant homes within 48 hours of enrolment. Adult and immature mosquitoes will be identified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Conditional logistic regression will be used to estimate the association between presence of An. stephensi and malaria status, adjusted for co-occurrence of other malaria vectors and participant gender., Conclusions: Findings from this study will provide evidence of the relative importance of An. stephensi for malaria burden in urban African settings, shedding light on the need for future intervention planning and policy development., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Ashine et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Malaria is a major public health concern in Ethiopia, and its incidence could worsen with the spread of the invasive mosquito species Anopheles stephensi in the country. This study aimed to provide updates on the distribution of An. stephensi and likely household exposure in Ethiopia., Methods: Entomological surveillance was performed in 26 urban settings in Ethiopia from 2021 to 2023. A kilometer-by-kilometer quadrant was established per town, and approximately 20 structures per quadrant were surveyed every 3 months. Additional extensive sampling was conducted in 50 randomly selected structures in four urban centers in 2022 and 2023 to assess households' exposure to An. stephensi. Prokopack aspirators and CDC light traps were used to collect adult mosquitoes, and standard dippers were used to collect immature stages. The collected mosquitoes were identified to species level by morphological keys and molecular methods. PCR assays were used to assess Plasmodium infection and mosquito blood meal source., Results: Catches of adult An. stephensi were generally low (mean: 0.15 per trap), with eight positive sites among the 26 surveyed. This mosquito species was reported for the first time in Assosa, western Ethiopia. Anopheles stephensi was the predominant species in four of the eight positive sites, accounting for 75-100% relative abundance of the adult Anopheles catches. Household-level exposure, defined as the percentage of households with a peridomestic presence of An. stephensi, ranged from 18% in Metehara to 30% in Danan. Anopheles arabiensis was the predominant species in 20 of the 26 sites, accounting for 42.9-100% of the Anopheles catches. Bovine blood index, ovine blood index and human blood index values were 69.2%, 32.3% and 24.6%, respectively, for An. stephensi, and 65.4%, 46.7% and 35.8%, respectively, for An. arabiensis. None of the 197 An. stephensi mosquitoes assayed tested positive for Plasmodium sporozoite, while of the 1434 An. arabiensis mosquitoes assayed, 62 were positive for Plasmodium (10 for P. falciparum and 52 for P. vivax)., Conclusions: This study shows that the geographical range of An. stephensi has expanded to western Ethiopia. Strongly zoophagic behavior coupled with low adult catches might explain the absence of Plasmodium infection. The level of household exposure to An. stephensi in this study varied across positive sites. Further research is needed to better understand the bionomics and contribution of An. stephensi to malaria transmission., (© 2024. The Author(s).)