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The question of what controls animal abundance has always been fundamental to ecology, but given rapid environmental change, understanding the drivers and mechanisms governing abundance is more important than ever. Here, we determine how multidimensional environments and niches interact to determine population abundance along a tropical habitat gradient. Focusing on the endemic lizard Anolis bicaorum on the island of Utila (Honduras), we evaluate direct and indirect effects of three interacting niche axes on abundance: thermal habitat quality, structural habitat quality, and prey availability. We measured A. bicaorum abundance across a series of thirteen plots and used N‐mixture models and path analysis to disentangle direct and indirect effects of these factors. Results showed that thermal habitat quality and prey biomass both had positive direct effects on anole abundance. However, thermal habitat quality also influenced prey biomass, leading to a strong indirect effect on abundance. Thermal habitat quality was primarily a function of canopy density, measured as leaf area index (LAI). Despite having little direct effect on abundance, LAI had a strong overall effect mediated by thermal quality and prey biomass. Our results demonstrate the role of multidimensional environments and niche interactions in determining animal abundance and highlight the need to consider interactions between thermal niches and trophic interactions to understand variation in abundance, rather than focusing solely on changes in the physical environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme climate events such as droughts, cold snaps, and hurricanes can be powerful agents of natural selection, producing acute selective pressures very different from the everyday pressures acting on organisms. However, it remains unknown whether these infrequent but severe disruptions are quickly erased by quotidian selective forces, or whether they have the potential to durably shape biodiversity patterns across regions and clades. Here, we show that hurricanes have enduring evolutionary impacts on the morphology of anoles, a diverse Neotropical lizard clade. We first demonstrate a transgenerational effect of extreme selection on toepad area for two populations struck by hurricanes in 2017. Given this short-term effect of hurricanes, we then asked whether populations and species that more frequently experienced hurricanes have larger toepads. Using 70 y of historical hurricane data, we demonstrate that, indeed, toepad area positively correlates with hurricane activity for both 12 island populations of Anolis sagrei and 188 Anolis species throughout the Neotropics. Extreme climate events are intensifying due to climate change and may represent overlooked drivers of biogeographic and large-scale biodiversity patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Rates of climate niche evolution underlie numerous fundamental ecological processes and patterns. However, while climate niche conservatism varies markedly among regions and clades, the source of this variation remains poorly understood. We tested whether ecological opportunity can stimulate radiation within climate niche space at biogeographic scales, predicting that rates of climate niche evolution will scale with geographic area and climate heterogeneity. Location Caribbean Methods We quantified two temperature axes (mean temperature and temperature seasonality of species' localities) of the climate niche for 130 Anolis species on Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Jamaica and the northern and southern Lesser Antilles. Using a species-level phylogeny, we fitted macroevolutionary models that either constrained rates of climate niche evolution or allowed them to vary among regions. Next, we regressed region-specific evolutionary rates against area, species richness and climate heterogeneity. We evaluated whether results were robust to uncertainty in phylogenetic and biogeographic reconstructions and the assumed mode of evolution. Results For both niche axes, an Ornstein- Uhlenbeck model that allowed the net rate of evolution (σ2) to vary among island groups fit the data considerably better than a single-rate Brownian motion model. Nagelkerke pseudo- R2 values of the fit of these OU models to mean temperature and seasonality axes were 0.43 and 0.66, respectively. Evolutionary rates for both axes were higher in larger areas, which also have more species. Only the rate of mean occupied temperature evolution was positively related to climate heterogeneity, and only after accounting for region size. Conclusions Rates of climate niche evolution scale consistently with the area available for radiation, but responses to climate heterogeneity vary among niche axes. For the mean temperature axis, climate heterogeneity generated additional opportunities for radiation, but for seasonality it did not. Overall, the physical setting in which a clade diversifies can influence where it falls on the evolutionary continuum, from climate niche conservatism to radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The aim of this study was to test the link between climatic niche dynamics and species diversification in Anolis on islands and on the mainland. We tested the hypotheses that lineages in warmer climates and with narrow climate niches diversified more than lineages in cold climates and with broad climate niches. We also tested the hypothesis that species-rich clades exhibit greater niche diversity than species-poor clades. Location Neotropics. Methods We collated occurrence records for 328 Anolis species to estimate niche breadth, niche position and occupied niche space (as a proxy for niche diversity). We compared niche breadth between insular and mainland Anolis species and among Anolis clades, controlling for the potential confounding effect of range size. Using two approaches (clade-based and QuaSSE) we explored the association between niche metrics and diversification rates in Anolis lizards. Results We found that Caribbean Anolis had a narrower niche breadth and niche space occupation compared to mainland anoles after controlling for range size differences. There was a significant association between niche traits (mean niche position and niche breadth) and diversification in anoles. Anole lineages with narrow niche breadths and that occupy warmer areas exhibited higher speciation rates than those with broader niche breadths and that occupy cold areas. Similarly, clades with higher total diversification exhibit more niche diversity than clades with lower total diversification. Main conclusions Climatic niche attributes play a role in anole diversification with some differences between mainland and insular anole lineages. Climatic niche differences between regions and clades likely are related to differences in niche evolutionary rates. This also suggests that climate plays a strong role in shaping species richness between and within mainland and islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To test the role of climate, dispersal limitation and biotic interactions in limiting species' distributions within an island adaptive radiation by integrating species traits, phylogeny and estimates of dispersal cost into climate-based species distribution models. Location Hispaniola. Methods Focusing on 26 species of Anolis lizards, we used multivariate adaptive regression splines to evaluate the contribution of climate, species interactions, phylogenetic history and dispersal limitation to species distributional limits. For each species, we mapped the morphological similarity of congenerics using traits of known ecological import and predicted that species would be less likely to occur in climatically suitable areas if they were inhabited by ecologically similar species. Dispersal limitation was incorporated by generating spatially explicit estimates of dispersal cost, based on inferred habitat suitability. We compared models including morphological similarity, dispersal cost, phylogeny and climate with climate-only models. Results were evaluated against a null model that conserved the spatial structure of species occurrences. Results Climate had a dominant role in shaping species distributions. However, for over one-third of species we also found evidence consistent with supplemental effects of species interactions, i.e. ecological niche incumbency. These species were less likely to occur in climatically suitable areas inhabited by a morphologically similar species. Dispersal limitation also supplemented climatic limits in most species. These results were robust to co-variation with phylogeny and to comparison with our null model. Conclusions These results suggest that, rather than act as mutually exclusive alternatives, multiple dimensions of the ecological niche, including climatic limits, biotic interactions and dispersal capacity, interact to shape species distributions and that local interactions can influence the broad-scale geography of species in a predictable way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Islands are widely considered to be species depauperate relative to mainlands but, somewhat paradoxically, are also host to many striking adaptive radiations. Here, focusing on Anolis lizards, we investigate if cladogenetic processes can reconcile these observations by determining if in situ speciation can reduce, or even reverse, the classical island-mainland richness discrepancy. Caribbean islands and the Neotropical mainland. We constructed range maps for 203 mainland anoles from museum records and evaluated whether geographical area could account for differences in species richness between island and mainland anole faunas. We compared the island species-area relationship with total mainland anole diversity and with the richness of island-sized mainland areas. We evaluated the role of climate in the observed differences by using Bayesian model averaging to predict island richness based on the mainland climate-richness relationship. Lastly, we used a published phylogeny and stochastic mapping of ancestral states to determine if speciation rate was greater on islands, after accounting for differences in geographical area. Islands dominated by in situ speciation had, on average, significantly more species than similarly sized mainland regions, but islands where in situ speciation has not occurred were species depauperate relative to mainland areas. Results were similar at the scale of the entire mainland, although marginally non-significant. These findings held even after accounting for climate. Speciation has not been faster on islands; instead, when extinction was assumed to be low, speciation rate varied consistently with geographical area. When extinction was high, there was some evidence that mainland speciation was faster than expected based on area. Our results indicate that evolutionary assembly of island faunas can reverse the general pattern of reduced species richness on islands relative to mainlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]