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There is an increasing demand to develop predictive medicine through the creation of predictive models and digital twins of the different body organs. To obtain accurate predictions, real local microstructure, morphology changes and their accompanying physiological degenerative effects must be taken into account. In this article, we present a numerical model to estimate the long-term aging effect on the human intervertebral disc response by means of a microstructure-based mechanistic approach. It allows to monitor in-silico the variations in disc geometry and local mechanical fields induced by age-dependent long-term microstructure changes. Both lamellar and interlamellar zones of the disc annulus fibrosus are constitutively represented by considering the main underlying microstructure features in terms of proteoglycans network viscoelasticity, collagen network elasticity (along with content and orientation) and chemical-induced fluid transfer. With age, a noticeable increase in shear strain is especially observed in the posterior and lateral posterior regions of the annulus which is in correlation with the high vulnerability of elderly people to back problems and posterior disc hernia. Important insights about the relation between age-dependent microstructure features, disc mechanics and disc damage are revealed using the present approach. These numerical observations are hardly obtainable using current experimental technologies which makes our numerical tool useful for patient-specific long-term predictions., (© 2023. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Biomedical Engineering Society.)

In the present article, a fully three-dimensional human annulus fibrosus model is developed by considering the regional variation of the complex structural organization of collagen network at different scales to predict the regional anisotropic multiaxial damage of the intervertebral disc. The model parameters are identified using experimental data considering as elementary structural unit, the single annulus lamellae stretched till failure along the micro-sized collagen fibers. The multi-layered lamellar/inter-lamellar annulus model is constructed by considering the effective interactions between adjacent layers and the chemical-induced volumetric strain. The regional dependent model predictions are analyzed under various loading modes and compared to experimental data when available. The stretching along the circumferential and radial directions till failure serves to check the predictive capacities of the annulus model. Model results under simple shear, biaxial stretching and plane-strain compression are further presented and discussed. Finally, a full disc model is constructed using the regional annulus model and simulations are presented to assess the most likely failed areas under disc axial compression. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: The damage in annulus soft tissues is a complex multiscale phenomenon due to a complex structural arrangement of collagen network at different scales of hierarchical organization. A fully three-dimensional constitutive representation that considers the regional variation of the structural complexity to estimate annulus multiaxial mechanics till failure has not yet been developed. Here, a model is developed to predict deformation-induced damage and failure of annulus under multiaxial loading histories considering as time-dependent physical process both chemical-induced volumetric effects and damage accumulation. After model identification using single lamellae extracted from different disc regions, the model predictability is verified for various multiaxial elementary loading modes representative of the spine movement. The heterogeneous mechanics of a full human disc model is finally presented., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)