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Objective: To predict functional outcomes 6 months after ankle fracture in people aged ≥60 years using post-treatment and 6-week follow-up data to inform anticipated recovery, and identify people who may benefit from additional monitoring or rehabilitation., Design: Prognostic model development and internal validation., Setting: 24 National Health Service hospitals, UK., Methods: Participants were the Ankle Injury Management clinical trial cohort (n=618) (ISRCTN04180738), aged 60-96 years, 459/618 (74%) female, treated surgically or conservatively for unstable ankle fracture. Predictors were injury and sociodemographic variables collected at baseline (acute hospital setting) and 6-week follow-up (clinic). Outcome measures were 6-month postinjury (primary) self-reported ankle function, using the Olerud and Molander Ankle Score (OMAS), and (secondary) Timed Up and Go (TUG) test by blinded assessor. Missing data were managed with single imputation. Multivariable linear regression models were built to predict OMAS or TUG, using baseline variables or baseline and 6-week follow-up variables. Models were internally validated using bootstrapping., Results: The OMAS baseline data model included: alcohol per week (units), postinjury EQ-5D-3L visual analogue scale (VAS), sex, preinjury walking distance and walking aid use, smoking status and perceived health status. The baseline/6-week data model included the same baseline variables, minus EQ-5D-3L VAS, plus five 6-week predictors: radiological malalignment, injured ankle dorsiflexion and plantarflexion range of motion, and 6-week OMAS and EQ-5D-3L. The models explained approximately 23% and 26% of the outcome variation, respectively. Similar baseline and baseline/6 week data models to predict TUG explained around 30% and 32% of the outcome variation, respectively., Conclusions: Predictive accuracy of the prognostic models using commonly recorded clinical data to predict self-reported or objectively measured ankle function was relatively low and therefore unlikely to be beneficial for clinical practice and counselling of patients. Other potential predictors (eg, psychological factors such as catastrophising and fear avoidance) should be investigated to improve predictive accuracy., Trial Registration Number: ISRCTN04180738; Post-results., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Importance: Ankle fractures cause substantial morbidity in older persons. Surgical fixation is the contemporary intervention but is associated with infection and other healing complications., Objective: To determine whether initial fracture treatment with close contact casting, a molded below-knee cast with minimal padding, offers outcome equivalent to that with immediate surgery, with fewer complications and less health resource use., Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a pragmatic, equivalence, randomized clinical trial with blinded outcome assessors. A pilot study commenced in May 2004, followed by multicenter recruitment from July 2010 to November 2013; follow-up was completed May 2014. Recruitment was from 24 UK major trauma centers and general hospitals. Participants were 620 adults older than 60 years with acute, overtly unstable ankle fracture. Exclusions were serious limb or concomitant disease or substantial cognitive impairment., Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned to surgery (n = 309) or casting (n = 311). Casts were applied in the operating room under general or spinal anesthesia by a trained surgeon., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary 6-month, per-protocol outcome was the Olerud-Molander Ankle Score at 6 months (OMAS; range, 0-100; higher scores indicate better outcomes and fewer symptoms), equivalence prespecified as ±6 points. Secondary outcomes were quality of life, pain, ankle motion, mobility, complications, health resource use, and patient satisfaction., Results: Among 620 adults (mean age, 71 years; 460 [74%] women) who were randomized, 593 (96%) completed the study. Nearly all participants (579/620; 93%) received allocated treatment; 52 of 275 (19%) who initially received casting later converted to surgery, which was allowable in the casting treatment pathway to manage early loss of fracture reduction. At 6 months, casting resulted in ankle function equivalent to that with surgery (OMAS score, 66.0 [95% CI, 63.6-68.5] for surgery vs 64.5 [95% CI, 61.8-67.2] for casting; mean difference, -0.6 [95% CI, -3.9 to 2.6]; P for equivalence = .001). Infection and wound breakdown were more common with surgery (29/298 [10%] vs 4/275 [1%]; odds ratio [OR], 7.3 [95% CI, 2.6-20.2]), as were additional operating room procedures (18/298 [6%] for surgery and 3/275 [1%] for casting; OR, 5.8 [95% CI, 1.8-18.7]). Radiologic malunion was more common in the casting group (38/249 [15%] vs 8/274 [3%] for surgery; OR, 6.0 [95% CI, 2.8-12.9]). Casting required less operating room time compared with surgery (mean difference [minutes/participant], -54 [95% CI, -58 to -50]). There were no significant differences in other secondary outcomes: quality of life, pain, ankle motion, mobility, and patient satisfaction., Conclusions and Relevance: Among older adults with unstable ankle fracture, the use of close contact casting compared with surgery resulted in similar functional outcomes at 6 months. Close contact casting may be an appropriate treatment for such patients., Trial Registration: isrctn.com Identifier: ISRCTN04180738.

Background: Close contact casting (CCC) may offer an alternative to open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) surgery for unstable ankle fractures in older adults., Objectives: We aimed to (1) determine if CCC for unstable ankle fractures in adults aged over 60 years resulted in equivalent clinical outcome compared with ORIF, (2) estimate cost-effectiveness to the NHS and society and (3) explore participant experiences., Design: A pragmatic, multicentre, equivalence randomised controlled trial incorporating health economic evaluation and qualitative study., Setting: Trauma and orthopaedic departments of 24 NHS hospitals., Participants: Adults aged over 60 years with unstable ankle fracture. Those with serious limb or concomitant disease or substantial cognitive impairment were excluded., Interventions: CCC was conducted under anaesthetic in theatre by surgeons who attended training. ORIF was as per local practice. Participants were randomised in 1 : 1 allocation via remote telephone randomisation. Sequence generation was by random block size, with stratification by centre and fracture pattern., Main Outcome Measures: Follow-up was conducted at 6 weeks and, by blinded outcome assessors, at 6 months after randomisation. The primary outcome was the Olerud-Molander Ankle Score (OMAS), a patient-reported assessment of ankle function, at 6 months. Secondary outcomes were quality of life (as measured by the European Quality of Life 5-Dimensions, Short Form questionnaire-12 items), pain, ankle range of motion and mobility (as measured by the timed up and go test), patient satisfaction and radiological measures. In accordance with equivalence trial US Food and Drug Administration guidance, primary analysis was per protocol., Results: We recruited 620 participants, 95 from the pilot and 525 from the multicentre phase, between June 2010 and November 2013. The majority of participants, 579 out of 620 (93%), received the allocated treatment; 52 out of 275 (19%) who received CCC later converted to ORIF because of loss of fracture reduction. CCC resulted in equivalent ankle function compared with ORIF at 6 months {OMAS 64.5 points [standard deviation (SD) 22.4 points] vs. OMAS 66.0 points (SD 21.1 points); mean difference -0.65 points, 95% confidence interval (CI) -3.98 to 2.68 points; standardised effect size -0.04, 95% CI -0.23 to 0.15}. There were no differences in quality of life, ankle motion, pain, mobility and patient satisfaction. Infection and/or wound problems were more common with ORIF [29/298 (10%) vs. 4/275 (1%)], as were additional operating theatre procedures [17/298 (6%) vs. 3/275 (1%)]. Malunion was more common with CCC [38/249 (15%) vs. 8/274 (3%); p  < 0.001]. Malleolar non-union was lower in the ORIF group [lateral: 0/274 (0%) vs. 8/248 (3%); p  = 0.002; medial: 3/274 (1%) vs. 18/248 (7%); p  < 0.001]. During the trial, CCC showed modest mean cost savings [NHS mean difference -£644 (95% CI -£1390 to £76); society mean difference -£683 (95% CI -£1851 to £536)]. Estimates showed some imprecision. Incremental quality-adjusted life-years following CCC were no different from ORIF. Over common willingness-to-pay thresholds, the probability that CCC was cost-effective was very high (> 95% from NHS perspective and 85% from societal perspective). Experiences of treatments were similar; both groups endured the impact of fracture, uncertainty regarding future function and the need for further interventions., Limitations: Assessors at 6 weeks were necessarily not blinded. The learning-effect analysis was inconclusive because of limited CCC applications per surgeon., Conclusions: CCC provides a clinically equivalent outcome to ORIF at reduced cost to the NHS and to society at 6 months., Future Work: Longer-term follow-up of trial participants is under way to address concerns over potential later complications or additional procedures and their potential to impact on ankle function. Further study of the patient factors, radiological fracture patterns and outcomes, treatment responses and prognosis would also contribute to understanding the treatment pathway., Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN04180738., Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment ; Vol. 20, No. 75. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This report was developed in association with the National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Unit funding scheme. The pilot phase was funded by the AO Research Foundation.