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The potential of solid waste as an energy source is clear, owing to its wide availability and renewable properties, which provide a critical answer for energy security. This can be especially effective in reducing the environmental impact of fossil fuels. Countries that rely heavily on coal should examine alternatives such as electricity from solid waste to provide a constant energy supply while also contributing to atmospheric restoration. In this regards, Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) is used for simulation the entire energy system in Pakistan and forecasted its capital cost and future CO2 emissions in relation to the use of renewable and fossil fuel resources under the different growth rates of solid waste projects like 20%, 30% and 40% for the study period 2023–2053. The results revealed that, 1402.97 TWh units of energy are generated to meet the total energy demand of 1193.93 TWh until 2053. The share of solid waste based electricity in total energy mix is increasing from a mere 0.81% in 2023 to around 9.44% by 2053 under the 20% growth rate, which then increase to 39.67% by 2053 under the 30% growth rate and further increases to 78.33% by 2053 under the 40% growth rate. It is suggested that 40% growth rate for solid waste based electricity projects is suitable for Pakistan until 2053 because under this condition, renewable sources contributes 95.2% and fossil fuels contributed 4.47% in the total energy mix of Pakistan. Hence, CO2 emissions are reduced from 148.26 million metric tons to 35.46 million metric tons until 2053 but capital cost is increased from 13.23 b$ in 2023 to 363.11 b$ by 2053. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Government of Pakistan has established clean energy transition goals in the national Alternative and Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy. The goal of this policy is to increase the 30% capacity of green energy in total energy mix by 2030. In this regard, the aim of this study is to develop a de-carbonization plan for achieving net zero emissions through the deployment of a green energy system for the period 2021 to 2040 by incorporating the ARE policy targets. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP®) software is used for finding the unidirectional causality among gross domestic product, population within the country, energy demand, renewable energy production and CO2 emissions for Pakistan. The results revealed that energy production of 564.16 TWh is enough to meet the energy demand of 480.10 TWh with CO2 emissions of 22.19 million metric tons, having a population of 242.1 million people and GDP growth rate of 5.8%, in the year 2040 in Pakistan. The share of green energy production is 535.07 TWh, which can be utilized fully for meeting energy demand in the country, and almost zero emissions will produce till 2040. CO2 emissions produced by burning natural gas were 20.64 million metric tons in 2020, which then reduced to 3.25 million metric tons in 2040. CO2 emissions produced by burning furnace oil are also reduced from 4.19 million metric tons in 2020 to 2.06 million metric tons in 2040. CO2 emissions produced by burning coal were 24.85 million metric tons in 2020, which then reduced to 16.88 million metric tons in 2040. Energy demand is directly related to the population and GDP of the country, while renewable utilization is inversely proportional to carbon emissions. The declining trend of carbon emissions in Pakistan would help to achieve net zero emissions targets by mid-century. This technique would bring prosperity in the development of a clean, green and sustainable environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan's energy sector has been in crises since 2005. Major reasons behind crises include huge dependence on imported fossil assets and lack of integrated energy planning. These crises have challenged energy sector and require special attention to solve them through proper planning using energy modeling tools. In this research, Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) is used for modeling Pakistan's energy sector for period 2020 to 2070. Energy demand, production and CO 2 emissions are forecasted under the Progressive (PROG) and Renewable Energy Sources, Technologies and Efficiency Measures (RESTEM) scenarios by considering techno-economic parameters. Results of this study suggest that transition towards defossilized energy system is possible through RESTEM scenario. Model results shows that energy demand for 2020 is 112 TWh and for 2070 is 2684 TWh. On supply side, energy production for 2020 is 114 TWh and for 2070 it is 2696 TWh. Share of renewable sources in total energy mix is increased from 38.5% in 2021 to 59.1% in 2070 and share of non-renewable sources is reduced from 53.1% in 2021 to 40.9% in 2070. CO 2 emissions are also reduced from 153,083.7 million tons to 56,152 million tons under RESTEM scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]