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BackgroundPredictD is a risk algorithm that was developed to predict risk of onset of major depression over 12 months in general practice attendees in Europe and validated in a similar population in Chile. It was the first risk algorithm to be developed in the field of mental disorders. Our objective was to extend predictD as an algorithm to detect people at risk of major depression over 24 months.MethodParticipants were 4190 adult attendees to general practices in the UK, Spain, Slovenia and Portugal, who were not depressed at baseline and were followed up for 24 months. The original predictD risk algorithm for onset of DSM-IV major depression had already been developed in data arising from the first 12 months of follow-up. In this analysis we fitted predictD to the longer period of follow-up, first by examining only the second year (12–24 months) and then the whole period of follow-up (0–24 months).ResultsThe instrument performed well for prediction of major depression from 12 to 24 months [c-index 0.728, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.675–0.781], or over the whole 24 months (c-index 0.783, 95% CI 0.757–0.809).ConclusionsThe predictD risk algorithm for major depression is accurate over 24 months, extending it current use of prediction over 12 months. This strengthens its use in prevention efforts in general medical settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundThe different incidence rates of, and risk factors for, depression in different countries argue for the need to have a specific risk algorithm for each country or a supranational risk algorithm. We aimed to develop and validate a predictD-Spain risk algorithm (PSRA) for the onset of major depression and to compare the performance of the PSRA with the predictD-Europe risk algorithm (PERA) in Spanish primary care.MethodA prospective cohort study with evaluations at baseline, 6 and 12 months. We measured 39 known risk factors and used multi-level logistic regression and inverse probability weighting to build the PSRA. In Spain (4574), Chile (2133) and another five European countries (5184), 11 891 non-depressed adult primary care attendees formed our at-risk population. The main outcome was DSM-IV major depression (CIDI).ResultsSix variables were patient characteristics or past events (sex, age, sex×age interaction, education, physical child abuse, and lifetime depression) and six were current status [Short Form 12 (SF-12) physical score, SF-12 mental score, dissatisfaction with unpaid work, number of serious problems in very close persons, dissatisfaction with living together at home, and taking medication for stress, anxiety or depression]. The C-index of the PSRA was 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79–0.84]. The Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) was 0.0558 [standard error (s.e.)=0.0071, Zexp=7.88, p<0.0001] mainly due to the increase in sensitivity. Both the IDI and calibration plots showed that the PSRA functioned better than the PERA in Spain.ConclusionsThe PSRA included new variables and afforded an improved performance over the PERA for predicting the onset of major depression in Spain. However, the PERA is still the best option in other European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

BackgroundThere are no risk models for the prediction of anxiety that may help in prevention. We aimed to develop a risk algorithm for the onset of generalized anxiety and panic syndromes.MethodFamily practice attendees were recruited between April 2003 and February 2005 and followed over 24 months in the UK, Spain, Portugal and Slovenia (Europe4 countries) and over 6 months in The Netherlands, Estonia and Chile. Our main outcome was generalized anxiety and panic syndromes as measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire. We entered 38 variables into a risk model using stepwise logistic regression in Europe4 data, corrected for over-fitting and tested it in The Netherlands, Estonia and Chile.ResultsThere were 4905 attendees in Europe4, 1094 in Estonia, 1221 in The Netherlands and 2825 in Chile. In the algorithm four variables were fixed characteristics (sex, age, lifetime depression screen, family history of psychological difficulties); three current status (Short Form 12 physical health subscale and mental health subscale scores, and unsupported difficulties in paid and/or unpaid work); one concerned country; and one time of follow-up. The overall C-index in Europe4 was 0.752 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.724–0.780]. The effect size for difference in predicted log odds between developing and not developing anxiety was 0.972 (95% CI 0.837–1.107). The validation of predictA resulted in C-indices of 0.731 (95% CI 0.654–0.809) in Estonia, 0.811 (95% CI 0.736–0.886) in The Netherlands and 0.707 (95% CI 0.671–0.742) in Chile.ConclusionsPredictA accurately predicts the risk of anxiety syndromes. The algorithm is strikingly similar to the predictD algorithm for major depression, suggesting considerable overlap in the concepts of anxiety and depression. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]