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This paper describes the method used by Tracz and Burtnyk for the estimation of future salary schedules in the Ontario secondary school system. The application of the algorithm to the Ontario secondary school system predicts a possible breakdown in the fixed step salary schedule at about 1980. This situation results primarily because of the consistent upgrading of teaching experience in the teacher force. Around 1980, the number of teachers at or very near the maximum of their category will be very high, and the number of new inexperienced teachers will be very low (because of decreasing enrollment.) Therefore, the tendency to provide salary increases of from 6-8 percent will necessitate increasing the maxima to approximately the same degree. This system, if applied over a number of years, would undermine the structure of the fixed step salary schedule. Although the algorithm presented here is not entirely satisfactory -- one of the negotiable variables, the number of years to reach the maximum, is used as a variable -- and is currently being modified, one of its merits is the ease with which salary schedules five or ten years from now can be created. Related documents are EA 005 253 and EA 005 255. (Author)

To fully develop a teacher cost model, it is essential to be able to forecast the number of teachers that leave the experience category distribution -- not only the total number that leave, but also the number that leave from each category and experience level within the distribution. Similarly, it is essential to be able to forecast, to the same detail, the number of teachers that change from one category to another. The set of algorithms presented here describes the methods that have been used in the estimation of these variables. Attempts are being made to improve these algorithms. For example, it would be desirable to incorporate the availability of summer school courses, and therefore the capacity for upgrading teacher qualifications, in the change of category rates. Also, hiring rates by category and experience should change relative to the supply and demand of teachers of various qualifications and experience. Related documents are EA 005 253 and EA 005 254. (Author)