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This paper presents a novel method on the optimization of bi-objective Flexible Job-shop Scheduling Problem (FJSP) under stochastic processing times. The robust counterpart model and the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) are used to solve the bi-objective FJSP with consideration of the completion time and the total energy consumption under stochastic processing times. The case study on GM Corporation verifies that the NSGA-II used in this paper is effective and has advantages to solve the proposed model comparing with HPSO and PSO+SA. The idea and method of the paper can be generalized widely in the manufacturing industry, because it can reduce the energy consumption of the energy-intensive manufacturing enterprise with less investment when the new approach is applied in existing systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Bayesian Reinforcement Learning (BRL) setting, agents try to maximise the collected rewards while interacting with their environment while using some prior knowledge that is accessed beforehand. Many BRL algorithms have already been proposed, but the benchmarks used to compare them are only relevant for specific cases. The paper addresses this problem, and provides a new BRL comparison methodology along with the corresponding open source library. In this methodology, a comparison criterion that measures the performance of algorithms on large sets of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) drawn from some probability distributions is defined. In order to enable the comparison of non-anytime algorithms, our methodology also includes a detailed analysis of the computation time requirement of each algorithm. Our library is released with all source code and documentation: it includes three test problems, each of which has two different prior distributions, and seven state-of-the-art RL algorithms. Finally, our library is illustrated by comparing all the available algorithms and the results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we explore the (in)efficiency of the continuum Bitcoin-USD market in the period ranging from mid 2010 to early 2019. To deal with, we dynamically analyse the evolution of the self-similarity exponent of Bitcoin-USD daily returns via accurate FD4 approach by a 512 day sliding window with overlapping data. Further, we define the memory indicator by the difference between the self-similarity exponent of Bitcoin-USD series and the self-similarity index of its shuffled series. We also carry out additional analyses via FD4 approach by sliding windows of sizes equal to 64, 128, 256, and 1024 days, and also via FD algorithm for values of q equal to 1 and 2 (and sliding windows equal to 512 days). Moreover, we explored the evolution of the self-similarity exponent of actual S&P500 series via FD4 algorithm by sliding windows of sizes equal to 256 and 512 days. In all the cases, the obtained results were found to be similar to our first analysis. We conclude that the self-similarity exponent of the BTC-USD (resp., S&P500) series stands above 0.5. However, this is not due to the presence of significant memory in the series but to its underlying distribution. In fact, it holds that the self-similarity exponent of BTC-USD (resp., S&P500) series is similar or lower than the self-similarity index of a random series with the same distribution. As such, several periods with significant antipersistent memory in BTC-USD (resp., S&P500) series are distinguished. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy optimisation is one of the important issues in the research of wireless sensor networks (WSNs). In the application of monitoring, a large number of sensors are scattered uniformly to cover a collection of points of interest (PoIs) distributed randomly in the monitored area. Since the energy of battery-powered sensor is limited in WSNs, sensors are scheduled to wake up in a large-scale sensor network application. In this paper, we consider how to reduce the energy consumption and prolong the lifetime of WSNs through wake-up scheduling with probabilistic sensing model in the large-scale application of monitoring. To extend the lifetime of sensor network, we need to balance the energy consumption of sensors so that there will not be too much redundant energy in some sensors before the WSN terminates. The detection probability and false alarm probability are taken into consideration to achieve a better performance and reveal the real sensing process which is characterised in the probabilistic sensing model. Data fusion is also introduced to utilise information of sensors so that a PoI in the monitored area may be covered by multiple sensors collaboratively, which will decrease the number of sensors that cover the monitored region. Based on the probabilistic model and data fusion, minimum weight probabilistic coverage problem is formulated in this paper. We also propose a greedy method and modified genetic algorithm based on the greedy method to address the problem. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate the advantages of our proposed algorithms over existing work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses regression analysis of doubly censored failure time data when there may exist a cured subgroup. By doubly censored data, we mean that the failure time of interest denotes the elapsed time between two related events and the observations on both event times can suffer censoring (Sun in The statistical analysis of interval-censored failure time data. Springer, New York, 2006). One typical example of such data is given by an acquired immune deficiency syndrome cohort study. Although many methods have been developed for their analysis (De Gruttola and Lagakos in Biometrics 45:1-12, 1989; Sun et al. in Biometrics 55:909-914, 1999; 60:637-643, 2004; Pan in Biometrics 57:1245-1250, 2001), it does not seem to exist an established method for the situation with a cured subgroup. This paper discusses this later problem and presents a sieve approximation maximum likelihood approach. In addition, the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established and an extensive simulation study indicates that the method seems to work well for practical situations. An application is also provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of determining the failure rate of a series system according to the failure rates of the component elements is solved in the literature, a reference in the field being the work [4]. There is no direct relationship between the failure rate of a parallel system and the failure rates of the component elements. In this paper we will deduce an exact relation between the failure rate of a parallel system and the failure rates of the component elements, their reliability and the reliability of the system. Starting from the exact relationship we will deduce a simpler relation of the failure rate of a parallel system by studying the asymptotic failure rate behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In smart parking environments, how to choose suitable parking facilities with various attributes to satisfy certain criteria is an important decision issue. Based on the multiple attributes decision making (MADM) theory, this study proposed a smart parking guidance algorithm by considering three representative decision factors (i.e., walk duration, parking fee, and the number of vacant parking spaces) and various preferences of drivers. In this paper, the expected number of vacant parking spaces is regarded as an important attribute to reflect the difficulty degree of finding available parking spaces, and a queueing theory-based theoretical method was proposed to estimate this expected number for candidate parking facilities with different capacities, arrival rates, and service rates. The effectiveness of the MADM-based parking guidance algorithm was investigated and compared with a blind search-based approach in comprehensive scenarios with various distributions of parking facilities, traffic intensities, and user preferences. Experimental results show that the proposed MADM-based algorithm is effective to choose suitable parking resources to satisfy users’ preferences. Furthermore, it has also been observed that this newly proposed Markov Chain-based availability attribute is more effective to represent the availability of parking spaces than the arrival rate-based availability attribute proposed in existing research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In clustering problems, to model the intrinsic structure of unlabeled data, the latent variable models are frequently used. These model-based clustering methods often provide a clustering rule minimizing the total false assignment error. However, in many clustering applications, it is desirable to treat false assignment errors for a certain cluster differently. In this paper, we introduce the false assignment rate for clustering and estimate it by using the extended likelihood approach. We propose VRclust, a novel clustering rule that controls various errors differently across clusters. Real data examples illustrate the usage of estimation of false assignment rate and a simulation study shows that error controls are consistent as the sample size increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we introduce the transparent dead leaves (TDL) random field, a new germ-grain model in which the grains are combined according to a transparency principle. Informally, this model may be seen as the superposition of infinitely many semitransparent objects. It is therefore of interest in view of the modeling of natural images. Properties of this new model are established and a simulation algorithm is proposed. The main contribution of the paper is to establish a central limit theorem, showing that, when varying the transparency of the grain from opacity to total transparency, the TDL model ranges from the dead leaves model to a Gaussian random field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper proposes a new message passing algorithm for cycle-free factor graphs. The proposed “entropy message passing” (EMP) algorithm may be viewed as sum-product message passing over the entropy semiring, which has previously appeared in automata theory. The primary use of EMP is to compute the entropy of a model. However, EMP can also be used to compute expressions that appear in expectation maximization and in gradient-descent algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For sequential decision processes with countable state spaces, we prove compactness of the set of strategic measures corresponding to nonrandomized policies. For the Borel state case, this setmay not be compact (Piunovskiy, Optimal control of random sequences in problems with constraints. Kluwer, Boston, p. 170, 1997) in spite of compactness of the set of strategic measures corresponding to all policies (Schäl, On dynamic programming: compactness of the space of policies. Stoch Processes Appl 3(4):345-364, 1975b; Balder, On compactness of the space of policies in stochastic dynamic programming. Stoch Processes Appl 32(1):141-150, 1989). We use the compactness result from this paper to show the existence of optimal policies for countable-state constrained optimization of expected discounted and nonpositive rewards, when the optimality is considered within the class of nonrandomized policies. This paper also studies the convergence of a value-iteration algorithm for such constrained problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: In a real working environment, workers' performance depends on the level of competence, psychological and health condition, motivation, and perceived stress. These are the attributes of actual availability. It is crucial to identify the most influential attributes to develop an adequate level of worker's performance. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this paper is to upgrade the Availability-Humanization-Model (AH-Model) with an implementation of the artificial intelligence classification tree to identify influencing factors of the well-being attributes on human performance, where the identified influencing factors are gripping points for maintaining sustainable performance in real-life conditions of different professions. METHODS: Well-being attributes are collected with the Questionnaire Actual Availability (QAA) from AH-Model and then analysed by implementation of the decision trees classification algorithms. An embedded clustering analysis of QAA ensures an efficient feature construction and selection. It negates the need of applying tree pruning or any other noise reduction algorithms. RESULTS: An implementation of the machine learning algorithms reflects the real conditions of working environments: (a) real performance of workers depends on the perception of well-being and availability and (b) the most influencing factors explicitly reflect the content of work in a specific domain (Fintech, health, forestry, traffic) with a high level of stress. CONCLUSIONS: The presented approach offers a possibility to identify the most important well-being attributes to determine an adequate efficiency and to improve the performance level in the real working conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses object tracking in ultrasound images using a robust multiple model tracker. The proposed tracker has the following features: 1) it uses multiple dynamic models to track the evolution of the object boundary, and 2) it models invalid observations (outliers), reducing their influence on the shape estimates. The problem considered in this paper is the tracking of the left ventricle which is known to be a challenging problem. The heart motion presents two phases (diastole and systole) with different dynamics, the multiple models used in this tracker try to solve this difficulty. In addition, ultrasound images are corrupted by strong multiplicative noise which prevents the use of standard deformable models. Robust estimation techniques are used to address this difficulty. The multiple model data association (MMDA) tracker proposed in this paper is based on a bank of nonlinear filters, organized in a tree structure. The algorithm determines which model is active at each instant of time and updates its state by propagating the probability distribution, using robust estimation techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clustering large and complex data sets whose partitions may adopt arbitrary shapes remains a difficult challenge. Part of this challenge comes from the difficulty in defining a similarity measure between the data points that captures the underlying geometry of those data points. In this paper, we propose an algorithm, DCG++ that generates such a similarity measure that is data-driven and ultrametric. DCG++ uses Markov Chain Random Walks to capture the intrinsic geometry of data, scans possible scales, and combines all this information using a simple procedure that is shown to generate an ultrametric. We validate the effectiveness of this similarity measure within the context of clustering on synthetic data with complex geometry, on a real-world data set containing segmented audio records of frog calls described by mel-frequency cepstral coefficients, as well as on an image segmentation problem. The experimental results show a significant improvement on performance with the DCG-based ultrametric compared to using an empirical distance measure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the application of the max-product algorithm (MPA) to the generalized multiple-fault diagnosis (GMFD) problem, which consists of components (to be diagnosed) and alarms/connections that can be unreliable. The MPA and the improved sequential MPA (SMPA) that we develop in this paper are local-message-passing algorithms that operate on the bipartite diagnosis graph (BDG) associated with the GMFD problem and converge to the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) solution if this graph is acyclic (in addition, the MPA requires the MAP solution to be unique). Our simulations suggest that both the MPA and the SMPA perform well in more general systems that may exhibit cycles in the associated BDGs (the SMPA also appears to outperform the MPA in these more general systems). In this paper, we provide analytical results for acyclic BDGs and also assess the performance of both algorithms under particular patterns of alarm observations in general graphs; this allows us to obtain analytical bounds on the probability of making erroneous diagnosis with respect to the MAP solution. We also evaluate the performance of the MPA and the SMPA algorithms via simulations, and provide comparisons with previously developed heuristics for this type of diagnosis problems. We conclude that the MPA and the SMPA perform well under reasonable computational complexity when the underlying diagnosis graph is sparse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a new Monte Carlo method based on a novel stochastic potential switching algorithm. This algorithm enables the equilibrium properties of a system with potential V to be computed using a Monte Carlo simulation for a system with a possibly less complex stochastically altered potential V. By proper choices of the stochastic switching and transition probabilities, it is shown that detailed balance can be strictly maintained with respect to the original potential V. The validity of the method is illustrated with a simple one-dimensional example. The method is then generalized to multidimensional systems with any additive potential, providing a framework for the design of more efficient algorithms to simulate complex systems. A near-critical Lennard-Jones fluid with more than 20 000 particles is used to illustrate the method. The new algorithm produced a much smaller dynamic scaling exponent compared to the Metropolis method and improved sampling efficiency by over an order of magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compound option valuation formulae give rise to the summation of a series of multinormal distribution functions. This paper presents an identity on sums of nested multinormal distributions of arbitrary dimension. We show that this identity generalizes some well-known low order identities for the multinormal distribution. We present three applications of the new identity to contingent claims valuation problems. The first and second applications show that by reducing significantly the number of integrals to be evaluated, faster and more accurate algorithms can be developed for implementing the Geske-Johnson American put valuation formula and the Roll-Geske-Whaley American call formula; the third gives new economic insights into the valuation of disaggregated coupon bonds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent contributions to the financial econometrics literature exploit high-frequency (HF) data to improve models for daily asset returns. This paper proposes a new class of dynamic extreme value models that profit from HF data when estimating the tails of daily asset returns. Our realized peaks-over-threshold approach provides estimates for the tails of the time-varying conditional return distribution. An in-sample fit to the S&P 500 index returns suggests that HF data convey information on daily extreme returns beyond that included in low frequency (LF) data. Finally, out-of-sample forecasts of conditional risk measures obtained with HF measures outperform those obtained with LF measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the Rayleigh-Lindley (RL) distribution is introduced, obtained by compounding the Rayleigh and Lindley discrete distributions, where the compounding procedure follows an approach similar to the one previously studied by Adamidis and Loukas in some other contexts. The resulting distribution is a two-parameter model, which is competitive with other parsimonious models such as the gamma and Weibull distributions. We study some properties of this new model such as the moments and the mean residual life. The estimation was approached via EM algorithm. The behavior of these estimators was studied in finite samples through a simulation study. Finally, we report two real data illustrations in order to show the performance of the proposed model versus other common two-parameter models in the literature. The main conclusion is that the model proposed can be a valid alternative to other competing models well established in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses geometric mean criterion and stochastic dominance decision making models. The author derives the mathematical relationship between the geometric mean and the integrals of the probability density functions used in stochastic dominance testing from a general class of distributions. However, both the models can be justified by the expected utility hypothesis. The geometric mean criterion follows as a result of the assumption that the decision-maker has a logarithmic utility function. The stochastic dominance models require the assumption of the signs of the first few derivatives of the decision-maker's utility function. The author notes that stochastic dominance showed great promise in its early development as a method for constructing a theory of security price forecasting because of its limited set of assumptions regarding investor preferences.

Purpose – Generally, iterative methods which have some instability solutions in complex structural and non-linear mechanical problems are used to compute reliability index. The purpose of this paper is to establish a non-linear conjugate gradient (NCG) optimization algorithm to overcome instability solution of the Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler (HL-RF) method in first-order reliability analysis. The NCG algorithms such as the Conjugate-Descent (CD) and the Liu-Storey (LS) are used for determining the safety index. An algorithm is found based on the new line search in the reliability analysis. Design/methodology/approach – In the proposed line search for calculating the safety index, search direction is computed by using the conjugate gradient approach and the HL-RF method based on the new and pervious gradient vector of the reliability function. A simple step size is presented for the line search in the proposed algorithm, which is formulated by the Wolfe conditions based on the new and previous safety index results in the reliability analysis. Findings – From the current work, it is concluded that the proposed NCG algorithm has more efficient, robust and appropriate convergence in comparison with the HL-RF method. The proposed methods can eliminate numerical instabilities of the HL-RF iterative algorithm in highly non-linear performance function and complicated structural limit state function. The NGC optimization is applicable to reliability analysis and it is correctly converged on the reliability index. In the NCG method, the CD algorithm is slightly more efficient than the LS algorithm. Originality/value – This paper usefully shows how the HL-RF algorithm and the NCG scheme are formulated in first-order reliability analysis. The proposed algorithm is validated from six numerical and structural examples taken from the literature. The HL-RF method is not converged on several non-linear mathematic and complex structural examples, while the two proposed conjugate gradient methods are appropriately converged for all examples. The CD algorithm is converged about twice faster than the LS algorithm in most of the problems. Therefore, application of the NCG method is possible in reliability analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The IEEE 802.11 MAC adopted a collision avoidance mechanism in which contending stations should wait a random backoff time before sending a frame. While the algorithm reduces the collision probability in general, a large number of stations may still experience heavy collisions thus decrease the throughput. In this paper, we propose a simple reservation scheme for enhancing the performance of multiple access in 802.11 MAC: when a transmitter sends a frame, if it has another frame to send in its output queue, it may reserve an additional time that is needed to send the next frame and receive an ACK for the frame. Thus a sender can occupy the medium for two data frames, while reducing the collision probability and improving channel utilization via the reservation. We develop a mathematical model to analyze the performance of proposed scheme, and perform simulations to evaluate its performance compared with the original MAC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Loopholes exist in nearly every regime, which leads to invalidity and instability in the running process of a regime. In this paper, we propose a new framework based on agent method and game theory to find loopholes in a regime, which contains two players with their clear payoffs. Following the principle of "winners stay, losers change", agents make their own choices among strategies, and their choices can affect the payoffs of other players, resulting in a dynamic equilibrium that has obvious features in decision path, which can be easily found in the final figures after simulation. We further exploit typical cases, such as prisoner's dilemma, anti-coordination game, coordination game and harmony, of which the results have been mathematical proved, to illustrate the validity of our method. Finally, we make some regimes in this paper based on the classical case, "Boxed Pigs", and find the loopholes in these regimes. By utilizing the framework proposed in this paper, managers are able to detect possible problems in advance at the time when they make regimes, which helps reduce the loss of costs caused by management and improve team relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers three crucial issues in processing scaled down image, the representation of partial image, similarity measure and domain adaptation. Two Gaussian mixture model based algorithms are proposed to effectively preserve image details and avoids image degradation. Multiple partial images are clustered separately through Gaussian mixture model clustering with a scan and select procedure to enhance the inclusion of small image details. The local image features, represented by maximum likelihood estimates of the mixture components, are classified by using the modified Bayes factor (MBF) as a similarity measure. The detection of novel local features from MBF will suggest domain adaptation, which is changing the number of components of the Gaussian mixture model. The performance of the proposed algorithms are evaluated with simulated data and real images and it is shown to perform much better than existing Gaussian mixture model based algorithms in reproducing images with higher structural similarity index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is devoted to the perfect simulation of a stationary process with an at most countable state space. The process is specified through a kernel, prescribing the probability of the next state conditional to the whole past history. We follow the seminal work of Comets, Fernández and Ferrari (2002), who gave sufficient conditions for the construction of a perfect simulation algorithm. We define backward coalescence times for these kind of processes, which allow us to construct perfect simulation algorithms under weaker conditions than in Comets, Fermindez and Ferrari (2002). We discuss how to construct backward coalescence times (I) by means of information depths, taking into account some a priori knowledge about the histories that occur; and (ii) by identifying suitable coalescing events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) proposed by Blei is a generative probabilistic model of a corpus, where documents are represented as random mixtures over latent topics, and each topic is characterized by a distribution over words, but not the attributes of word positions of every document in the corpus. In this paper, a Word Position-Related LDA Model is proposed taking into account the attributes of word positions of every document in the corpus, where each word is characterized by a distribution over word positions. At the same time, the precision of the topic-word's interpretability is improved by integrating the distribution of the word-position and the appropriate word degree, taking into account the different word degree in the different word positions. Finally, a new method, a size-aware word intrusion method is proposed to improve the ability of the topic-word's interpretability. Experimental results on the NIPS corpus show that the Word Position-Related LDA Model can improve the precision of the topic-word's interpretability. And the average improvement of the precision in the topic-word's interpretability is about 9.67%. Also, the size-aware word intrusion method can interpret the topic-word's semantic information more comprehensively and more effectively through comparing the different experimental data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the problem of enriching the travelogue associated with a small number (even one) of images with more web images. Images associated with the travelogue always consist of the content and the style of textual information. Relying on this assumption, in this paper, we present a framework of travelogue enriching, exploiting both textual and visual information generated by different users. The framework aims to select the most relevant images from automatically collected candidate image set to enrich the given travelogue, and form a comprehensive overview of the scenic spot. To do these, we propose to build two-layer probabilistic models, i.e. a text-layer model and image-layer models, on offline collected travelogues and images. Each topic (e.g. Sea, Mountain, Historical Sites) in the text-layer model is followed by an image-layer model with sub-topics learnt (e.g. the topic of sea is with the sub-topic like beach, tree, sunrise and sunset). Based on the model, we develop strategies to enrich travelogues in the following steps: (1) remove noisy names of scenic spots from travelogues; (2) generate queries to automatically gather candidate image set; (3) select images to enrich the travelogue; and (4) choose images to portray the visual content of a scenic spot. Experimental results on Chinese travelogues demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach on tasks of travelogue enrichment and the corresponding scenic spot illustration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

mesh is a graph that divides physical space into regularly-shaped regions. Meshes computations form the basis of many applications, including finite-element methods, image rendering, collision detection, and N-body simulations. In one important mesh primitive, called a mesh update, each mesh vertex stores a value and repeatedly updates this value based on the values stored in all neighboring vertices. The performance of a mesh update depends on the layout of the mesh in memory. Informally, if the mesh layout has good data locality (most edges connect a pair of nodes that are stored near each other in memory), then a mesh update runs quickly. This paper shows how to find a memory layout that guarantees that the mesh update has asymptotically optimal memory performance for any set of memory parameters. Specifically, the cost of the mesh update is roughly the cost of a sequential memory scan. Such a memory layout is called cache-oblivious. Formally, for a d-dimensional mesh G, block size B, and cache size M (where M=Ω( B)), the mesh update of G uses O(1+| G|/ B) memory transfers. The paper also shows how the mesh-update performance degrades for smaller caches, where M= o( B). The paper then gives two algorithms for finding cache-oblivious mesh layouts. The first layout algorithm runs in time O(| G|log | G|) both in expectation and with high probability on a RAM. It uses O(1+| G|log (| G|/ M)/ B) memory transfers in expectation and O(1+(| G|/ B)(log (| G|/ M)+log | G|)) memory transfers with high probability in the cache-oblivious and disk-access machine (DAM) models. The layout is obtained by finding a fully balanced decomposition tree of G and then performing an in-order traversal of the leaves of the tree. The second algorithm computes a cache-oblivious layout on a RAM in time O(| G|log | G|log log | G|) both in expectation and with high probability. In the DAM and cache-oblivious models, the second layout algorithm uses O(1+(| G|/ B) log (| G|/ M)min {log log | G|,log (| G|/ M)}) memory transfers in expectation and O(1+(| G|/ B)(log (| G|/ M)min {log log | G|,log (| G|/ M)}+log | G|)) memory transfers with high probability. The algorithm is based on a new type of decomposition tree, here called a relax-balanced decomposition tree. Again, the layout is obtained by performing an in-order traversal of the leaves of the decomposition tree. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider statistical inference from incomplete sets of binary data. Our approach is based on the autologistic model, which is very flexible and well suited for medical applications. We propose a Bayesian approach, essentially using Monte Carlo techniques. The method developed in this paper is a special version of Gibbs sampler. We repeat intermittently the following two steps. First, missing values are generated from the predictive distribution. Second, unknown parametes are estimated from the completed data. The Monte Carlo method of computing maximum likelihood estimates due to Geyer and Thompson (J. R. Statist. Soc. B 54: 657-699, 1992) is modified to the Bayesian setting and missing data problems. We include results of some small scale simulation experiments. We artificially introduce missing values in a real data set and then use our algorithm to refill missings. The rate of correct imputations is quite satisfactory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The design of complex concurrent systems often involves intricate performance and dependability considerations. Continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) are a widely used modeling formalism that captures such performance and dependability properties, and makes them analyzable by model checking. In this paper, we focus on time-bounded probabilistic properties of infinite-state CTMCs, expressible in a subset of continuous stochastic logic (CSL). This comprises important dependability measures, such as time-bounded probabilistic reachability, performability, survivability, and various availability measures like instantaneous, conditional instantaneous and interval availabilities. Conventional model checkers explore the given model exhaustively, which is often costly, due to state explosion, and sometimes impossible because the model is infinite. This paper presents a method that only explores the model up to a finite depth. The required depth is determined on the fly by an algorithm that is configurable in order to adapt to the characteristics of different classes of models. We provide experimental evidence showing that our method is effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the operation of a state machine, this paper elucidates a comprehensive frame for probability-based primary-input-dominated X-filling methods to minimize the total weighted switching activity (WSA) during the scan capture operation. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly reduces both average and peak WSAs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stochastic hybrid system (SHS) models can be used to analyze and design complex embedded systems that operate in the presence of uncertainty and variability. Verification of reachability properties for such systems is a critical problem. Developing sound computational methods for verification is challenging because of the interaction between the discrete and the continuous stochastic dynamics. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic method for verification of SHSs based on discrete approximations focusing on reachability and safety problems. We show that reachability and safety can be characterized as a viscosity solution of a system of coupled Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. We present a numerical algorithm for computing the solution based on discrete approximations that are derived using finite-difference methods. An advantage of the method is that the solution converges to the one for the original system as the discretization becomes finer. We also prove that the algorithm is polynomial in the number of states of the discrete approximation. Finally, we illustrate the approach with two benchmarks: a navigation and a room heater example, which have been proposed for hybrid system verification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract  Designing efficient estimation of distribution algorithms for optimizing complex continuous problems is still a challenging task. This paper utilizes histogram probabilistic model to describe the distribution of population and to generate promising solutions. The advantage of histogram model, its intrinsic multimodality, makes it proper to describe the solution distribution of complex and multimodal continuous problems. To make histogram model more efficiently explore and exploit the search space, several strategies are brought into the algorithms: the surrounding effect reduces the population size in estimating the model with a certain number of the bins and the shrinking strategy guarantees the accuracy of optimal solutions. Furthermore, this paper shows that histogram-based EDA (Estimation of distribution algorithm) can give comparable or even much better performance than those predominant EDAs based on Gaussian models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel procedure for estimating the relative importance of uncertain parameters of complex FE model is presented. The method is specifically directed toward problems involving high-dimensional input parameter spaces, as they are encountered during uncertainty analysis of large scale, refined FE models. In these cases one is commonly faced with thousands of uncertain parameters and traditional techniques, e.g. finite difference or direct differentiation methods become expensive. In contrast, the presented method quickly filters out the most influential variables. Hence, the main objective is not to compute the sensitivity but to identify those parameters whose random variations have the biggest influence on the response. This is achieved by generating a set of samples with direct Monte Carlo simulation, which are closely scattered around the point at which the relative importance measures are sought. From these samples, estimators of the relative importance are synthesized and the most important ones are refined with a method of choice. In this paper, the underlying theory as well as the resulting algorithm is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider online versions of the traveling salesman problem (TSP) and traveling repairman problem (TRP) where instances are not known in advance. Cities (points) to be visited are revealed over time, while the server is en route serving previously released requests. These problems are known in the literature as the online TSP (TRP, respectively). The corresponding offline problems are the TSP (TRP) with release dates, problems where each point has to be visited at or after a given release date. In the current literature, the assumption is that a request becomes known at the time of its release date. In this paper we introduce the notion of a request's disclosure date, the time when a city's location and release date are revealed to the server. In a variety of disclosure date scenarios and metric spaces, we give new online algorithms and quantify the value of this advanced information in the form of improved competitive ratios. We also provide a general result on polynomial-time online algorithms for the online TSP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting for nonlinear time series is an important topic in time series analysis. Existing numerical algorithms for multi-step-ahead forecasting ignore accuracy checking, alternative Monte Carlo methods are also computationally very demanding and their accuracy is difficult to control too. In this paper a numerical forecasting procedure for nonlinear autoregressive time series models is proposed. The forecasting procedure can be used to obtain approximate m-step-ahead predictive probability density functions, predictive distribution functions, predictive mean and variance, etc. for a range of nonlinear autoregressive time series models. Examples in the paper show that the forecasting procedure works very well both in terms of the accuracy of the results and in the ability to deal with different nonlinear autoregressive time series models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proposed hybridized rough set framework is composed of traditional Rough Set (RS) approach and classical Decision Tree (DT) induction algorithm. RS helps to identify dominant attributes and DT algorithm results in simpler and generalized classifier. The implementation of the Hybridized Rough Set Framework is presented as the RDT algorithm. GA heuristics are used to generalize the RDT algorithm further. Experimental results obtained on applying the hybridized rough set framework and the related base algorithms on datasets belonging to the three categories are presented in this paper. Accuracy, complexity, number of rules and number of attributes in the induced classifier assess the performance of the candidate algorithms. The results indicate that the proposed framework is an effective model for classification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expert judgment is frequently used to assess parameter values of quantitative management science models, particularly in decision-making contexts. Experts can, however, only be expected to assess observable quantities, not abstract model parameters. This means that we need a method for translating expert assessed uncertainties on model outputs into uncertainties on model parameter values. This process is called probabilistic inversion. The probability distribution on model parameters obtained in this way can be used in a variety of ways, but in particular in an uncertainty analysis or as a Bayes prior. This paper discusses computational algorithms that have proven successful in various projects and gives examples from environmental modelling and banking. Those algorithms are given a theoretical basis by adopting a minimum information approach to modelling partial information. The role of minimum information is two-fold: It enables us to resolve the problem of nonuniqueness of distributions given the information we have, and it provides numerical stability to the algorithm by guaranteeing convergence properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the performance of the local splitting criterion devised by Bremner&Taplin for classification and regression trees when multiple trees are averaged to improve performance. The criterion is compared with the deviance used by Clark&Pregibon's method, which is a global splitting criterion typically used to grow trees. The paper considers multiple trees generated by randomly selecting splits with probability proportional to the likelihood for the split, and by bagging where bootstrap samples from the data are used to grow trees. The superiority of the localized splitting criterion often persists when multiple trees are grown and averaged for six datasets.Tree averaging is known to be advantageous when the trees being averaged produce different predictions, and this can be achieved by choosing splits where the splitting criterion is locally optimal. The paper shows that use of locally optimal splits gives promising results in conjunction with both local and global splitting criteria, and with and without random selection of splits. The paper also extends the local splitting criterion to accommodate categorical predictors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deployment of large number of femtocell base stations allows us to extend the coverage and efficiently utilize resources in a low cost manner. However, the small cell size of femtocell networks can result in frequent handovers to the mobile user, and consequently throughput degradation. Thus, in this paper, we propose predictive association control schemes to improve the system’s effective throughput. Our design focuses on reducing handover frequency without impacting on throughput. The proposed schemes determine handover decisions that contribute most to the network throughput and are proper for distributed implementations. The simulation results show significant gains compared with existing methods in terms of handover frequency and network throughput perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the information overload of user-generated content in microblogging, users find it extremely challenging to browse and find valuable information in their first attempt. In this paper we propose a microblogging recommendation algorithm, TSI-MR (Topic-Level Social Influence-based Microblogging Recommendation), which can significantly improve users' microblogging experiences. The main innovation of this proposed algorithm is that we consider social influences and their indirect structural relationships, which are largely based on social status theory, from the topic level. The primary advantage of this approach is that it can build an accurate description of latent relationships between two users with weak connections, which can improve the performance of the model; furthermore, it can solve sparsity problems of training data to a certain extent. The realization of the model is mainly based on Factor Graph. We also applied a distributed strategy to further improve the efficiency of the model. Finally, we use data from Tencent Weibo, one of the most popular microblogging services in China, to evaluate our methods. The results show that incorporating social influence can improve microblogging performance considerably, and outperform the baseline methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bivariate random-effects models represent a widely accepted and recommended approach for meta-analysis of test accuracy studies. Standard likelihood methods routinely used for inference are prone to several drawbacks. Small sample size can give rise to unreliable inferential conclusions and convergence issues make the approach unappealing. This paper suggests a different methodology to address such difficulties.Methods: A SIMEX methodology is proposed. The method is a simulation-based technique originally developed as a correction strategy within the measurement error literature. It suits the meta-analysis framework as the diagnostic accuracy measures provided by each study are prone to measurement error. SIMEX can be straightforwardly adapted to cover different measurement error structures and to deal with covariates. The effortless implementation with standard software is an interesting feature of the method.Results: Extensive simulation studies highlight the improvement provided by SIMEX over likelihood approach in terms of empirical coverage probabilities of confidence intervals under different scenarios, independently of the sample size and the values of the correlation between sensitivity and specificity. A remarkable amelioration is obtained in case of deviations from the normality assumption for the random-effects distribution. From a computational point of view, the application of SIMEX is shown to be neither involved nor subject to the convergence issues affecting likelihood-based alternatives. Application of the method to a diagnostic review of the performance of transesophageal echocardiography for assessing ascending aorta atherosclerosis enables overcoming limitations of the likelihood procedure.Conclusions: The SIMEX methodology represents an interesting alternative to likelihood-based procedures for inference in meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies. The approach can provide more accurate inferential conclusions, while avoiding convergence failure and numerical instabilities. The application of the method in the R programming language is possible through the code which is made available and illustrated using the real data example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this research is to examine the trends in the exchange rate markets of the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia (IDR), Malaysia (MYR), the Philippines (PHP), Singapore (SGD), and Thailand (THB)) through the application of dynamic moving average trading systems. This research offers evidence of the usefulness of the time-varying volatility technical analysis indicator, Adjustable Moving Average (AMA′) in deciphering trends in these ASEAN-5 exchange rate markets. This time-varying volatility factor, referred to as the Efficacy Ratio in this paper, is embedded in AMA′. The Efficacy Ratio adjusts the AMA′ to the prevailing market conditions by avoiding whipsaws (losses due, in part, to acting on wrong trading signals, which generally occur when there is no general direction in the market) in range trading and by entering early into new trends in trend trading. The efficacy of AMA′ is assessed against other popular moving-average rules. Based on the January 2005 to December 2014 dataset, our findings show that the moving averages and AMA′ are superior to the passive buy-and-hold strategy. Specifically, AMA′ outperforms the other models for the United States Dollar against PHP (USD/PHP) and USD/THB currency pairs. The results show that different length moving averages perform better in different periods for the five currencies. This is consistent with our hypothesis that a dynamic adjustable technical indicator is needed to cater for different periods in different markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large-scale multiple surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks has been in operation in England and Wales since the early 1990s. Changes to the statistical algorithm at the heart of the system were proposed and the purpose of this paper is to compare two new algorithms with the original algorithm. Test data to evaluate performance are created from weekly counts of the number of cases of each of more than 2000 diseases over a twenty-year period. The time series of each disease is separated into one series giving the baseline (background) disease incidence and a second series giving disease outbreaks. One series is shifted forward by twelve months and the two are then recombined, giving a realistic series in which it is known where outbreaks have been added. The metrics used to evaluate performance include a scoring rule that appropriately balances sensitivity against specificity and is sensitive to variation in probabilities near 1. In the context of disease surveillance, a scoring rule can be adapted to reflect the size of outbreaks and this was done. Results indicate that the two new algorithms are comparable to each other and better than the algorithm they were designed to replace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the process of k-coverage of the target node, there will be a lot of data redundancy forcing the phenomenon of congestion which reduces network communication capability and coverage, and accelerates network energy consumption. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel energy balanced k-coverage control algorithm based on probability model (EBKCCA). The algorithm constructs the coverage network model by using the positional relationship between the nodes. By analyzing the network model, the coverage expected value of nodes and the minimum number of nodes in the monitoring area are given. In terms of energy consumption, this paper gives the proportion of energy conversion functions between working nodes and neighboring nodes. By using the function proportional to schedule low energy nodes, we achieve the energy balance of the whole network and optimizing network resources. The last simulation experiments indicate that this algorithm can not only improve the quality of network coverage, but also completely inhibit the rapid energy consumption of node, and extend the network lifetime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purposes of this paper are to introduce a multivariate non-stationary stochastic time series model without individual detrending and to extract the multiple relationships between variables. To infer the statistical relation between variables, we attempt to estimate the co-movement of multivariate non- stationary time series components. The model is expressed in state-space form, and time series components are estimated by the maximum likelihood method using numerical optimization algorithm. The Kalman filter algorithm is used to compute the likelihood of the model. The AIC procedure gives a criterion for selecting the best model fit for the data. The multiple relationship becomes clear by analysing estimated AR coefficients. Real economic data are used for a numerical example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: As a part of a larger Health Technology Assessment (HTA), the measurement error of a device used to monitor the hemoglobin concentration of a patient undergoing surgery, as well as its decision consequences, were to be estimated from published data.Methods: A Bayesian hierarchical model of measurement error, allowing the meta-analytic estimation of both central and dispersion parameters (under the assumption of normality of measurement errors) is proposed and applied to published data; the resulting potential decision errors are deduced from this estimation. The same method is used to assess the impact of an initial calibration.Results: The posterior distributions are summarized as mean ± sd (credible interval). The fitted model exhibits a modest mean expected error (0.24 ± 0.73 (-1.23 1.59) g/dL) and a large variability (mean absolute expected error 1.18 ± 0.92 (0.05 3.36) g/dL). The initial calibration modifies the bias (-0.20 ± 0.87 (-1.99 1.49) g/dL), but the variability remains almost as large (mean absolute expected error 1.05 ± 0.87 (0.04 3.21) g/dL). This entails a potential decision error ("false positive" or "false negative") for about one patient out of seven.Conclusions: The proposed hierarchical model allows the estimation of the variability from published aggregates, and allows the modeling of the consequences of this variability in terms of decision errors. For the device under assessment, these potential decision errors are clinically problematic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subset sum algorithm is a natural heuristic for the classical Bin Packing problem: In each iteration, the algorithm finds among the unpacked items, a maximum size set of items that fits into a new bin. More than 35 years after its first mention in the literature, establishing the worst-case performance of this heuristic remains, surprisingly, an open problem. Due to their simplicity and intuitive appeal, greedy algorithms are the heuristics of choice of many practitioners. Therefore, better understanding simple greedy heuristics is, in general, an interesting topic in its own right. Very recently, Epstein and Kleiman (Proc. ESA 2008, pp. 368-380) provided another incentive to study the subset sum algorithm by showing that the Strong Price of Anarchy of the game theoretic version of the Bin Packing problem is precisely the approximation ratio of this heuristic. In this paper we establish the exact approximation ratio of the subset sum algorithm, thus settling a long standing open problem. We generalize this result to the parametric variant of the Bin Packing problem where item sizes lie on the interval $$(0, \alpha ]$$ for some $$\alpha \le 1$$ , yielding tight bounds for the Strong Price of Anarchy for all $$\alpha \le 1$$ . Finally, we study the pure Price of Anarchy of the parametric Bin Packing game for which we show nearly tight upper and lower bounds for all $$\alpha \le 1$$ . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]