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Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is the basis of power system planning and operation. With regard to the fast-growing load in China, a novel two-stage hybrid forecasting method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, daily load is forecasted by time-series methods; in the second stage, the deviation caused by time-series methods is forecasted considering the impact of relative factors, and then is added to the result of the first stage. Different from other conventional methods, this paper does an in-depth analysis on the impact of relative factors on the deviation between actual load and the forecasting result of traditional time-series methods. On the basis of this analysis, an adaptive algorithm is proposed to perform the second stage which can be used to choose the most appropriate algorithm among linear regression, quadratic programming, and support vector machine (SVM) according to the characteristic of historical data. These ideas make the forecasting procedure more accurate, adaptive, and effective, comparing with SVM and other prevalent methods. The effectiveness has been demonstrated by the experiments and practical application in China. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Sentiment analysis of microblog texts has drawn lots of attention in both the academic and industrial fields. However, most of the current work only focuses on polarity classification. In this paper, we present an opinion mining system for Chinese microblogs called CMiner. Instead of polarity classification, CMiner focuses on more complicated opinion mining tasks - opinion target extraction and opinion summarization. Novel algorithms are developed for the two tasks and integrated into the end-to-end system. CMiner can help to effectively understand the users’ opinion towards different opinion targets in a microblog topic. Specially, we develop an unsupervised label propagation algorithm for opinion target extraction. The opinion targets of all messages in a topic are collectively extracted based on the assumption that similar messages may focus on similar opinion targets. In addition, we build an aspect-based opinion summarization framework for microblog topics. After getting the opinion targets of all the microblog messages in a topic, we cluster the opinion targets into several groups and extract representative targets and summaries for each group. A co-ranking algorithm is proposed to rank both the opinion targets and microblog sentences simultaneously. Experimental results on a benchmark dataset show the effectiveness of our system and the algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

China's industrialized regions have seen increasing occurrence of heavy haze caused by severe particle pollution. However, aerosol retrieval under these circumstances is often excluded from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) aerosol products due to cloud mask and suspected high surface reflectance. An algorithm to retrieve the haze aerosol optical thickness (HAOT) is developed using MODIS data to supplement the current MODIS retrieval algorithm. This method includes 1) haze identification, 2) the generation of a surface reflectance database using MODIS data in hazy conditions, and 3) the development of haze aerosol models with four aerosol components simulated by a global 3-D atmospheric chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). This algorithm was used in combination with the MODIS dense dark vegetation algorithm to retrieve 1 km HAOT over North China Plain from March to September of 2008. The values of the retrieved HAOT values are mostly between 0.7–3, with a correlation coefficient of 0.82 with the Aerosol Robotic NETwork observations and a 19% mean relative difference. Retrieval uncertainties associated with the errors in haze detection, surface reflectance, and haze models were analyzed using ground measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]