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Importance: The development of an alcohol use disorder in adolescence is associated with increased risk of future alcohol dependence. The differential associations of risk factors with alcohol use over the course of 8 years are important for preventive measures., Objective: To determine the differential associations of risk-taking aspects of personality, social factors, brain functioning, and familial risk with hazardous alcohol use in adolescents over the course of 8 years., Design, Setting, and Participants: The IMAGEN multicenter longitudinal cohort study included adolescents recruited from European schools in Germany, the UK, France, and Ireland from January 2008 to January 2019. Eligible participants included those with available neuropsychological, self-report, imaging, and genetic data at baseline. Adolescents who were ineligible for magnetic resonance imaging or had serious medical conditions were excluded. Data analysis was conducted from July 2021 to September 2022., Exposure: Personality testing, psychosocial factors, brain functioning, and familial risk of alcohol misuse., Main Outcome and Measures: Hazardous alcohol use as measured with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test scores, a main planned outcome of the IMAGEN study. Alcohol misuse trajectories at ages 14, 16, 19, and 22 years were modeled using latent growth curve models., Results: A total of 2240 adolescents (1110 female [49.6%] and 1130 male [50.4%]) were included in the study. There was a significant negative association of psychosocial resources (β = -0.29; SE = 0.03; P < .001) with the general risk of alcohol misuse as well as a significant positive association of the risk-taking aspects of personality with the intercept (β = 0.19; SE = 0.04; P < .001). Furthermore, there were significant positive associations of the social domain (β = 0.13; SE = 0.02; P < .001) and the personality domain (β = 0.07; SE = 0.02; P < .001) with trajectories of alcohol misuse development over time (slope). Family history of substance misuse was negatively associated with general risk of alcohol misuse (β = -0.04; SE = 0.02; P = .045) and its development over time (β = -0.03; SE = 0.01; P = .01). Brain functioning showed no significant association with intercept or slope of alcohol misuse in the model., Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest known risk factors of adolescent drinking may contribute differentially to future alcohol misuse. This approach may inform more individualized preventive interventions.

Importance: Alcohol misuse in adolescence is a leading cause of disability and mortality in youth and is associated with higher risk for alcohol use disorder. Brain mechanisms underlying risk of alcohol misuse may inform prevention and intervention efforts., Objective: To identify neuromarkers of alcohol misuse using a data-driven approach, with specific consideration of neurodevelopmental sex differences., Design, Setting, and Participants: Longitudinal multisite functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data collected at ages 14 and 19 years were used to assess whole-brain patterns of functional organization associated with current and future alcohol use risk as measured by the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT). Primary data were collected by the IMAGEN consortium, a European multisite study of adolescent neurodevelopment. Model generalizability was further tested using data acquired in a single-site study of college alcohol consumption conducted in the US. The primary sample was a developmental cohort of 1359 adolescents with neuroimaging, phenotyping, and alcohol use data. Model generalizability was further assessed in a separate cohort of 114 individuals., Main Outcomes and Measures: Brain-behavior model accuracy, as defined by the correspondence between model-predicted and actual AUDIT scores in held-out testing data, Bonferroni corrected across the number of models run at each time point, 2-tailed α < .008, as determined via permutation testing., Results: Among 1359 individuals in the study, the mean (SD) age was 14.42 (0.40) years, and 729 individuals (54%) were female. The data-driven, whole-brain connectivity approach identified networks associated with vulnerability for future and current AUDIT-defined alcohol use risk (primary outcome, as specified above, future: ρ, 0.22; P < .001 and present: ρ, 0.27; P < .001). Results further indicated sex divergence in the accuracies of brain-behavior models, such that female-only models consistently outperformed male-only models. Specifically, female-only models identified networks conferring vulnerability for future and current severity using data acquired during both reward and inhibitory fMRI tasks. In contrast, male-only models were successful in accurately identifying networks using data acquired during the inhibitory control-but not reward-task, indicating domain specificity of alcohol use risk networks in male adolescents only., Conclusions and Relevance: These data suggest that interventions focusing on inhibitory control processes may be effective in combating alcohol use risk in male adolescents but that both inhibitory and reward-related processes are likely of relevance to alcohol use behaviors in female adolescents. They further identify novel networks of alcohol use risk in youth, which may be used to identify adolescents who are at risk and inform intervention efforts.

Background and Aims: Models of alcohol use risk suggest that drinking motives represent the most proximal risk factors on which more distal factors converge. However, little is known about how distinct risk factors influence each other and alcohol use on different temporal scales (within a given moment versus over time). We aimed to estimate the dynamic associations of distal (personality and life stressors) and proximal (drinking motives) risk factors, and their relationship to alcohol use in adolescence and early adulthood using a novel graphical vector autoregressive (GVAR) panel network approach., Design, Setting and Cases: We estimated panel networks on data from the IMAGEN study, a longitudinal European cohort study following adolescents across three waves (aged 16, 19 and 22 years). Our sample consisted of 1829 adolescents (51% females) who reported alcohol use on at least one assessment wave., Measurements: Risk factors included personality traits (NEO-FFI: neuroticism, extraversion, openness, agreeableness and conscientiousness; SURPS: impulsivity and sensation-seeking), stressful life events (LEQ: sum scores of stressful life events), and drinking motives [drinking motives questionnaire (DMQ): social, enhancement, conformity, coping anxiety and coping depression]. We assessed alcohol use [alcohol use disorders identification test (AUDIT): quantity and frequency] and alcohol-related problems (AUDIT: related problems)., Findings: Within a given moment, social [partial correlation (pcor) = 0.17] and enhancement motives (pcor = 0.15) co-occurred most strongly with drinking quantity and frequency, while coping depression motives (pcor = 0.13), openness (pcor = 0.05) and impulsivity (pcor = 0.09) were related to alcohol-related problems. The temporal network showed no predictive associations between distal risk factors and drinking motives. Social motives (beta = 0.21), previous alcohol use (beta = 0.11) and openness (beta = 0.10) predicted alcohol-related problems over time (all P < 0.01)., Conclusions: Heavy and frequent alcohol use, along with social drinking motives, appear to be key targets for preventing the development of alcohol-related problems throughout late adolescence. We found no evidence for personality traits and life stressors predisposing towards distinct drinking motives over time., (© 2023 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.)

Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is a chronic and fatal disease. The main impediment of the AUD therapy is a high probability of relapse to alcohol abuse even after prolonged abstinence. The molecular mechanisms of cue-induced relapse are not well established, despite the fact that they may offer new targets for the treatment of AUD. Using a comprehensive animal model of AUD, virally-mediated and amygdala-targeted genetic manipulations by CRISPR/Cas9 technology and ex vivo electrophysiology, we identify a mechanism that selectively controls cue-induced alcohol relapse and AUD symptom severity. This mechanism is based on activity-regulated cytoskeleton-associated protein (Arc)/ARG3.1-dependent plasticity of the amygdala synapses. In humans, we identified single nucleotide polymorphisms in the ARC gene and their methylation predicting not only amygdala size, but also frequency of alcohol use, even at the onset of regular consumption. Targeting Arc during alcohol cue exposure may thus be a selective new mechanism for relapse prevention., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

This study explored the generality versus specificity of two trait-liability factors for externalizing problems-disinhibition and callousness-in the concurrent and prospective prediction of symptoms of conduct disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and substance use (i.e., alcohol use disorder and history of illicit substance use). Disinhibition involves an impulsive, unrestrained cognitive-behavioral style; callousness entails a dispositional lack of social-emotional sensitivity. Participants were European adolescents from the multisite IMAGEN project who completed questionnaires and clinical interviews at ages 14 (N = 1,504, Mage = 14.41, 51.13% female) and 16 (N = 1,407, Mage = 16.46, 51.88% female). Disinhibition was related concurrently and prospectively to greater symptoms of conduct disorder, ADHD, and alcohol use disorder; higher scores on a general externalizing factor; and greater likelihood of having tried an illicit substance. Callousness was selectively related to greater conduct disorder symptoms. These findings indicate disinhibition confers broad liability for externalizing spectrum disorders, perhaps due to its affiliated deficits in executive function. In contrast, callousness appears to represent more specific liability for antagonistic (aggressive/exploitative) forms of externalizing, as exemplified by antisocial behavior. Results support the utility of developmental-ontogenetic and hierarchical-dimensional models of psychopathology and have important implications for early assessment of risk for externalizing problems. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Alcohol misuse during adolescence (AAM) has been associated with disruptive development of adolescent brains. In this longitudinal machine learning (ML) study, we could predict AAM significantly from brain structure (T1-weighted imaging and DTI) with accuracies of 73 -78% in the IMAGEN dataset (n∼1182). Our results not only show that structural differences in brain can predict AAM, but also suggests that such differences might precede AAM behavior in the data. We predicted 10 phenotypes of AAM at age 22 using brain MRI features at ages 14, 19, and 22. Binge drinking was found to be the most predictable phenotype. The most informative brain features were located in the ventricular CSF, and in white matter tracts of the corpus callosum, internal capsule, and brain stem. In the cortex, they were spread across the occipital, frontal, and temporal lobes and in the cingulate cortex. We also experimented with four different ML models and several confound control techniques. Support Vector Machine (SVM) with rbf kernel and Gradient Boosting consistently performed better than the linear models, linear SVM and Logistic Regression. Our study also demonstrates how the choice of the predicted phenotype, ML model, and confound correction technique are all crucial decisions in an explorative ML study analyzing psychiatric disorders with small effect sizes such as AAM., Competing Interests: RR, Ed, JK, KG, MT, MR, TB, AB, SD, HF, AG, HG, PG, RB, JM, MM, EA, FN, DP, HL, TP, LP, JF, LR, MS, JW, RW, GS, HW, AH, KR No competing interests declared, (© 2022, Rane et al.)

Alcohol use disorder is characterised by disrupted reward learning, underpinned by dysfunctional cortico-striatal reward pathways, although relatively little is known about the biology of reward processing in populations who engage in risky alcohol use. Cues that trigger reward anticipation can be categorized according to their learnt valence (i.e., positive vs. negative outcomes) and motivational salience (i.e., incentive vs. neutral cues). Separating EEG signals associated with these dimensions is challenging because of their inherent collinearity, but the recent application of machine learning methods to single EEG trials affords a solution. Here, the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was used to quantify risky alcohol use, with participants split into high alcohol (HA) (n = 22, mean AUDIT score: 13.82) and low alcohol (LA) (n = 22, mean AUDIT score: 5.77) groups. We applied machine learning multivariate single-trial classification to the electroencephalography (EEG) data collected during reward anticipation. The LA group demonstrated significant valence discrimination in the early stages of reward anticipation within the cue-P3 time window (400-550 ms), whereas the HA group was insensitive to valence within this time window. Notably, the LA, but not the HA group demonstrated a relationship between single-trial variability in the early valence component and reaction times for gain and loss trials. This study evidences disrupted hypoactive valence sensitivity in the HA group, revealing potential neurophysiological markers for risky drinking behaviours which place individuals at-risk of adverse health events., (© 2022 The Authors. Addiction Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.)

Background: While drinking alcohol, one must choose between the immediate rewarding effects and the delayed reward of a healthier lifestyle. Individuals differ in their devaluation of a delayed reward based on the time required to receive it, i.e., delay discounting (DD). Previous studies have shown that adolescents discount more steeply than adults and that steeper DD is associated with heavier alcohol use in both groups., Methods: In a large-scale longitudinal study, we investigated whether higher rates of DD are an antecedent or a consequence of alcohol use during adolescent development. As part of the IMAGEN project, 2220 adolescents completed the Monetary Choice Questionnaire as a DD measure, the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, and the Timeline Follow Back interview at ages 14, 16, 18, and 22. Bivariate latent growth curve models were applied to investigate the relationship between DD and drinking. To explore the consequences of drinking, we computed the cumulative alcohol consumption and correlated it with the development of discounting. A subsample of 221 participants completed an intertemporal choice task (iTeCh) during functional magnetic resonance imaging at ages 14, 16, and 18. Repeated-measures ANOVA was used to differentiate between high-risk and low-risk drinkers on the development of neural processing during intertemporal choices., Results: Overall, high rates of DD at age 14 predicted a greater increase in drinking over 8 years. In contrast, on average, moderate alcohol use did not affect DD from ages 14 to 22. Of note, we found indicators for less brain activity in top-down control areas during intertemporal choices in the participants who drank more., Conclusions: Steep DD was shown to be a predictor rather than a consequence of alcohol use in low-level drinking adolescents. Important considerations for future longitudinal studies are the sampling strategies to be used and the reliability of the assessments., (© 2022 The Authors. Alcoholism: Clinical & Experimental Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Research Society on Alcoholism.)

Mixed findings exist in studies comparing brain responses to reward in adolescents and adults. Here we examined the trajectories of brain response, functional connectivity and task-modulated network properties during reward processing with a large-sample longitudinal design. Participants from the IMAGEN study performed a Monetary Incentive Delay task during fMRI at timepoint 1 (T1; n = 1304, mean age=14.44 years old) and timepoint 2 (T2; n = 1241, mean age=19.09 years). The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was administrated at both T1 and T2 to assess a participant's alcohol use during the past year. Voxel-wise linear mixed effect models were used to compare whole brain response as well as functional connectivity of the ventral striatum (VS) during reward anticipation (large reward vs no-reward cue) between T1 and T2. In addition, task-modulated networks were constructed using generalized psychophysiological interaction analysis and summarized with graph theory metrics. To explore alcohol use in relation to development, participants with no/low alcohol use at T1 but increased alcohol use to hazardous use level at T2 (i.e., participants with AUDIT≤2 at T1 and ≥8 at T2) were compared against those with consistently low scores (i.e., participants with AUDIT≤2 at T1 and ≤7 at T2). Across the whole sample, lower brain response during reward anticipation was observed at T2 compared with T1 in bilateral caudate nucleus, VS, thalamus, midbrain, dorsal anterior cingulate as well as left precentral and postcentral gyrus. Conversely, greater response was observed bilaterally in the inferior and middle frontal gyrus and right precentral and postcentral gyrus at T2 (vs. T1). Increased functional connectivity with VS was found in frontal, temporal, parietal and occipital regions at T2. Graph theory metrics of the task-modulated network showed higher inter-regional connectivity and topological efficiency at T2. Interactive effects between time (T1 vs. T2) and alcohol use group (low vs. high) on the functional connectivity were observed between left middle temporal gyrus and right VS and the characteristic shortest path length of the task-modulated networks. Collectively, these results demonstrate the utility of the MID task as a probe of typical brain response and network properties during development and of differences in these features related to adolescent drinking, a reward-related behaviour associated with heightened risk for future negative health outcomes., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Early initiation of polysubstance use (PSU) is a strong predictor of subsequent addiction, however scarce individuals present resilience capacity. This neuroimaging study aimed to investigate structural correlates associated with cessation or reduction of PSU and determine the extent to which brain structural features accounted for this resilient outcome. Participants from a European community-based cohort self-reported their alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use frequency at ages 14, 16 and 19 and had neuroimaging sessions at ages 14 and 19. We included three groups in the study: the resilient-to-PSU participants showed PSU at 16 and/or 14 but no more at 19 (n = 18), the enduring polysubstance users at 19 displayed PSU continuation from 14 or 16 (n = 193) and the controls were abstinent or low drinking participants (n = 460). We conducted between-group comparisons of grey matter volumes on whole brain using voxel-based morphometry and regional fractional anisotropy using tract-based spatial statistics. Random-forests machine-learning approach generated individual-level PSU-behavior predictions based on personality and neuroimaging features. Adolescents resilient to PSU showed significant larger grey matter volumes in the bilateral cingulate gyrus compared with enduring polysubstance users and controls at ages 19 and 14 (p<0.05 corrected) but no difference in fractional anisotropy. The larger cingulate volumes and personality trait "openness to experience" were the best precursors of resilience to PSU. Early in adolescence, a larger cingulate gyrus differentiated adolescents resilient to PSU, and this feature was critical in predicting this outcome. This study encourages further research into the neurobiological bases of resilience to addictive behaviors., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Traditional models of future alcohol use in adolescents have used variable-centered approaches, predicting alcohol use from a set of variables across entire samples or populations. Following the proposition that predictive factors may vary in adolescents as a function of family history, we used a two-pronged approach by first defining clusters of familial risk, followed by prediction analyses within each cluster. Thus, for the first time in adolescents, we tested whether adolescents with a family history of drug abuse exhibit a set of predictors different from adolescents without a family history. We apply this approach to a genetic risk score and individual differences in personality, cognition, behavior (risk-taking and discounting) substance use behavior at age 14, life events, and functional brain imaging, to predict scores on the alcohol use disorders identification test (AUDIT) at age 14 and 16 in a sample of adolescents (N = 1659 at baseline, N = 1327 at follow-up) from the IMAGEN cohort, a longitudinal community-based cohort of adolescents. In the absence of familial risk (n = 616), individual differences in baseline drinking, personality measures (extraversion, negative thinking), discounting behaviors, life events, and ventral striatal activation during reward anticipation were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, while the overall model explained 22% of the variance in future AUDIT. In the presence of familial risk (n = 711), drinking behavior at age 14, personality measures (extraversion, impulsivity), behavioral risk-taking, and life events were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, explaining 20.1% of the overall variance. Results suggest that individual differences in personality, cognition, life events, brain function, and drinking behavior contribute differentially to the prediction of future alcohol misuse. This approach may inform more individualized preventive interventions.

Prompted by recent evidence of neural circuitry in rodent models, functional magnetic resonance imaging and functional connectivity analyses were conducted for a large adolescent population at two ages, together with alcohol abuse measures, to characterize a neural network that may underlie the onset of alcoholism. A network centered on the medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC), as well as including the dorsal periaqueductal gray (dPAG), central nucleus of the amygdala, and nucleus accumbens, was identified, consistent with the rodent models, with evidence of both inhibitory and excitatory coregulation by the mOFC over the dPAG. Furthermore, significant relationships were detected between raised baseline excitatory coregulation in this network and impulsivity measures, supporting a role for negative urgency in alcohol dependence., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).)

Previous studies suggest that individuals with substance use disorder have abnormally large responses to unexpected outcomes (reward prediction errors [RPEs]). However, there is much less information on RPE in individuals at risk of alcohol misuse, prior to neurobiological adaptations that might result from sustained alcohol use. Here, participants (mean age 23.77 years, range 18-32 years) performed the electrophysiological monetary incentive delay task. This task involved responding to a target stimulus following reward incentive cues to win, or avoid losing, the cued reward while brain activity was recorded under 64-channel EEG. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was used to quantify at-risk alcohol use, with high (n = 22, mean AUDIT score: 13.82) and low (n = 22, mean AUDIT score: 5.77) alcohol use groups. Trial-by-trial RPEs were estimated using a Rescorla-Wagner reinforcement model based on behavioral data. A single-trial analysis revealed that the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and feedback P3 (fb-P3) event-related potential components were significantly modulated by RPEs. There was increased RPE-related fb-P3 amplitude for those in the high alcohol use group. Next, the mean amplitude of ERPs elicited by positive and negative RPEs were compared between groups. We found that high alcohol use participants had attenuated FRN amplitude in contrast with low alcohol use participants for both positive and negative RPEs but enhanced fb-P3 for both positive and negative RPE. These results, with differences in RPE in an at-risk group, suggest that RPE a potential vulnerability marker for alcohol use disorder., (© 2020 Society for the Study of Addiction.)

Heavy drinker adolescents: altered brainstem microstructure., (© 2019 Society for the Study of Addiction.)

High adolescent alcohol consumption is predictive for alcohol problems later in life. To tailor interventions, early identification of risk groups for adolescent alcohol consumption is important. The IMAGEN dataset was utilized to investigate predictors for problematic alcohol consumption at age 18-20 years as a function self and parental personality and drug-related measures as well as life-events and cognitive variables all assessed at age 14 years (N = 1404). For this purpose the binary partitioning algorithm ctree was used in an explorative analysis. The algorithm recursively selects significant input variables and splits the outcome variable based on these, yielding a conditional inference tree. Four significant split variables, namely Place of residence, the Disorganization subscale of the Temperament and Character Inventory, Sex, and the Sexuality subscale of the life-events questionnaire were found to distinguish between adolescents scoring high or low on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test about five years later (all p < 0.001). The analyis adds to the literature on predictors of adolescent drinking problems using a large European sample. The identified split variables could easily be collected in community samples. If their validity is proven in independent samples, they could facilitate intervention studies in the field of adolescent alcohol prevention., (Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Adolescence is a common time for initiation of alcohol use and development of alcohol use disorders. The present study investigates neuroanatomical predictors for trajectories of future alcohol use based on a novel voxel-wise whole-brain structural equation modeling framework. In 1814 healthy adolescents of the IMAGEN sample, the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) was acquired at three measurement occasions across five years. Based on a two-part latent growth curve model, we conducted whole-brain analyses on structural MRI data at age 14, predicting change in alcohol use score over time. Higher grey-matter volumes in the caudate nucleus and the left cerebellum at age 14 years were predictive of stronger increase in alcohol use score over 5 years. The study is the first to demonstrate the feasibility of running separate voxel-wise structural equation models thereby opening new avenues for data analysis in brain imaging., Competing Interests: SK, AM, AB, UB, EQ, SD, HF, AG, HG, PG, AH, BI, JM, FN, DP, TP, LP, SM, JF, MS, HW, RW, GS, UL, JG No competing interests declared, TB Has served as an advisor or consultant to Bristol-Myers Squibb, Desitin Arzneimittel, Eli Lilly, Medice, Novartis, Pfizer, Shire, UCB, and Vifor Pharma; he has received conference attendance support, conference support, or speaking fees from Eli Lilly, Janssen McNeil, Medice, Novartis, Shire, and UCB; and he is involved in clinical trials conducted by Eli Lilly, Novartis, and Shire; the present work is unrelated to these relationships. CB Reviewing editor, eLife, (© 2019, Kühn et al.)

Background and Aims: Dysfunction in brain regions underlying impulse control, reward processing and executive function have been associated previously with adolescent alcohol misuse. However, identifying pre-existing neurobiological risk factors, as distinct from changes arising from early alcohol-use, is difficult. Here, we outline how neuroimaging data can identify the neural predictors of adolescent alcohol-use initiation and misuse by using prospective longitudinal studies to follow initially alcohol-naive individuals over time and by neuroimaging adolescents with inherited risk factors for alcohol misuse., Method: A comprehensive narrative of the literature regarding neuroimaging studies published between 2010 and 2016 focusing on predictors of adolescent alcohol use initiation and misuse., Findings: Prospective, longitudinal neuroimaging studies have identified pre-existing differences between adolescents who remained alcohol-naive and those who transitioned subsequently to alcohol use. Both functional and structural grey matter differences were observed in temporal and frontal regions, including reduced brain activity in the superior frontal gyrus and temporal lobe, and thinner temporal cortices of future alcohol users. Interactions between brain function and genetic predispositions have been identified, including significant association found between the Ras protein-specific guanine nucleotide releasing factor 2 (RASGRF2) gene and reward-related striatal functioning., Conclusions: Neuroimaging predictors of alcohol use have shown modest utility to date. Future research should use out-of-sample performance as a quantitative measure of a predictor's utility. Neuroimaging data should be combined across multiple modalities, including structural information such as volumetrics and cortical thickness, in conjunction with white-matter tractography. A number of relevant neurocognitive systems should be assayed; particularly, inhibitory control, reward processing and executive functioning. Combining a rich magnetic resonance imaging data set could permit the generation of neuroimaging risk scores, which could potentially yield targeted interventions., (© 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.)

A comprehensive account of the causes of alcohol misuse must accommodate individual differences in biology, psychology and environment, and must disentangle cause and effect. Animal models can demonstrate the effects of neurotoxic substances; however, they provide limited insight into the psycho-social and higher cognitive factors involved in the initiation of substance use and progression to misuse. One can search for pre-existing risk factors by testing for endophenotypic biomarkers in non-using relatives; however, these relatives may have personality or neural resilience factors that protect them from developing dependence. A longitudinal study has potential to identify predictors of adolescent substance misuse, particularly if it can incorporate a wide range of potential causal factors, both proximal and distal, and their influence on numerous social, psychological and biological mechanisms. Here we apply machine learning to a wide range of data from a large sample of adolescents (n = 692) to generate models of current and future adolescent alcohol misuse that incorporate brain structure and function, individual personality and cognitive differences, environmental factors (including gestational cigarette and alcohol exposure), life experiences, and candidate genes. These models were accurate and generalized to novel data, and point to life experiences, neurobiological differences and personality as important antecedents of binge drinking. By identifying the vulnerability factors underlying individual differences in alcohol misuse, these models shed light on the aetiology of alcohol misuse and suggest targets for prevention.

BackgroundDysfunctional reward processing is implicated in multiple mental disorders. Novelty seeking (NS) assesses preference for seeking novel experiences, which is linked to sensitivity to reward environmental cues.MethodsA subset of 14-year-old adolescents (IMAGEN) with the top 20% ranked high-NS scores was used to identify high-NS-associated multimodal components by supervised fusion. These features were then used to longitudinally predict five different risk scales for the same and unseen subjects (an independent dataset of subjects at 19 years of age that was not used in predictive modeling training at 14 years of age) (within IMAGEN, n ≈1100) and even for the corresponding symptom scores of five types of patient cohorts (non-IMAGEN), including drinking (n = 313), smoking (n = 104), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (n = 320), major depressive disorder (n = 81), and schizophrenia (n = 147), as well as to classify different patient groups with diagnostic labels.ResultsMultimodal biomarkers, including the prefrontal cortex, striatum, amygdala, and hippocampus, associated with high NS in 14-year-old adolescents were identified. The prediction models built on these features are able to longitudinally predict five different risk scales, including alcohol drinking, smoking, hyperactivity, depression, and psychosis for the same and unseen 19-year-old adolescents and even predict the corresponding symptom scores of five types of patient cohorts. Furthermore, the identified reward-related multimodal features can classify among attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, major depressive disorder, and schizophrenia with an accuracy of 87.2%.ConclusionsAdolescents with higher NS scores can be used to reveal brain alterations in the reward-related system, implicating potential higher risk for subsequent development of multiple disorders. The identified high-NS-associated multimodal reward-related signatures may serve as a transdiagnostic neuroimaging biomarker to predict disease risks or severity.

Depressed individuals use language differently than healthy controls and it has been proposed that social media posts can be used to identify depression. Much of the evidence behind this claim relies on indirect measures of mental health and few studies have tested if these language features are specific to depression versus other aspects of mental health. We analysed the Tweets of 1006 participants who completed questionnaires assessing symptoms of depression and 8 other mental health conditions. Daily Tweets were subjected to textual analysis and the resulting linguistic features were used to train an Elastic Net model on depression severity, using nested cross-validation. We then tested performance in a held-out test set (30%), comparing predictions of depression versus 8 other aspects of mental health. The depression trained model had modest out-of-sample predictive performance, explaining 2.5% of variance in depression symptoms (R2 = 0.025, r = 0.16). The performance of this model was as-good or superior when used to identify other aspects of mental health: schizotypy, social anxiety, eating disorders, generalised anxiety, above chance for obsessive-compulsive disorder, apathy, but not significant for alcohol abuse or impulsivity. Machine learning analysis of social media data, when trained on well-validated clinical instruments, could not make meaningful individualised predictions regarding users' mental health. Furthermore, language use associated with depression was non-specific, having similar performance in predicting other mental health problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impulsivity is a multidimensional construct that is related to different aspects of alcohol use, abuse, and dependence. Inhibitory control, one facet of impulsivity, can be assayed using the stop-signal task (SST) and quantified behaviorally via the stop-signal reaction time (SSRT) and electrophysiologically using event-related potentials (ERPs). Research on the relationship between alcohol use and SSRTs, and between alcohol use and inhibitory-control ERPs, is mixed. Here, adult alcohol users (n = 79), with a wide range of scores on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), completed the SST under electroencephalography (EEG) (70% of participants had AUDIT total scores greater than or equal to 8). Other measures, including demographic, self-report, and task-based measures of impulsivity, personality, and psychological factors, were also recorded. A machine-learning method with penalized linear regression was used to correlate individual differences in alcohol use with impulsivity measures. Four separate models were tested, with out-of-sample validation used to quantify performance. ERPs alone statistically predicted alcohol use (cross-validated r = 0.28), with both early and late ERP components contributing to the model (larger N2, but smaller P3, amplitude). Behavioral data from a wide range of impulsivity measures were also associated with alcohol use (r = 0.37). SSRT was a relatively weak statistical predictor, whereas the Stroop interference effect was relatively strong. The addition of nonimpulsivity behavioral measures did not improve the correlation (r = 0.34) and was similar when ERPs were combined with non-ERP data (r = 0.29). These findings show that inhibitory control ERPs are robustly correlated individual differences in alcohol use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]