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Many previous studies have suggested a link between alcohol outlets and assaultive violence rates. In 1997 the City of New Orleans adopted a series of policies, e.g., increased license fee, additional enforcement staff, and expanded powers for the alcohol license board. The policies were specifically enacted to address the proliferation of problem alcohol outlets believed to be the source of a variety of social problems including assaultive violence. In this research, we evaluate the impact of a city level policy in New Orleans to address the problem alcohol outlets and their influence on assaultive violence. The spatial association between rates of assaultive violence at the census tract level (n=170) over a ten year period raises a challenge in statistical analysis. To meet this challenge we developed a hierarchical change-point model that controls for important covariates of assaultive violence and accounts for unexplained spatial and temporal variability. While our model is somewhat complex, its hierarchical Bayesian analysis is accessible via the WinBUGS software program. Keeping other effects fixed, the implementation of the new city level policy was associated with a decrease in the positive association between census tract level rates of assaultive violence and alcohol outlet density. Comparing several candidate change-point models using the DIC criterion, the positive association began decreasing the year of the policy implementation. The magnitude of the association continued to decrease for roughly two years and then stabilized. We also created maps of the fitted assaultive violence rates in New Orleans, as well as spatial residual maps which, together with Moran's I's, suggest that the spatial variation of the data is well accounted for by our model. We reach the conclusion that the implementation of the policy is associated with a significant decrease in the positive relationship between assaultive violence and the off-sale alcohol outlet density., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: This article extends the compartmental model previously developed by Scribner et al. in the context of college drinking to a mathematical model of the consequences of lowering the legal drinking age., Method: Using data available from 32 U.S. campuses, the analyses separate underage and legal age drinking groups into an eight-compartment model with different alcohol availability (wetness) for the underage and legal age groups. The model evaluates the likelihood that underage students will incorrectly perceive normative drinking levels to be higher than they actually are (i.e., misperception) and adjust their drinking accordingly by varying the interaction between underage students in social and heavy episodic drinking compartments., Results: The results evaluate the total heavy episodic drinker population and its dependence on the difference in misperception, as well as its dependence on underage wetness, legal age wetness, and drinking age., Conclusions: Results suggest that an unrealistically extreme combination of high wetness and low enforcement would be needed for the policies related to lowering the drinking age to be effective.

Social capital and income inequality have been proposed as important mediators of the relation between the material environment and health outcomes. We determined whether indicators of social capital are (i) associated with neighbourhood gonorrhea rates, and (ii) mediate the relation between alcohol outlet density and gonorrhea rate. Longitudinal analyses of age- and sex-adjusted gonorrhea cases reported from 1990 to 1996 in the 445 census tracts affected by the 1992 civil unrest in Los Angeles, California was conducted. The role of alcohol outlets was assessed both as tracts with surrendered off-sale outlets due to the civil unrest and annual off-sale alcohol outlet density rates. Tract level voting rates were used as one indicator of social capital, while neighbourhood structure conducive to social organization was used as another. Neighbourhoods with greater voting over time and greater endogenous social organization experienced 1.9 and 67.2 fewer gonorrhea cases per 100,000. Results also reveal a partial mediating role of social capital on the relationship between alcohol outlet density and gonorrhea rate. The alcohol environment may have a direct or partially mediated role in infectious disease outcomes such as gonorrhea. Our findings support the importance of continuing controls and limits on off-premise alcohol outlet density, as a potential means of reducing gonorrhea rates and increasing social capital.

Many previous studies have suggested a link between alcohol outlets and assaultive violence. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of the "1992 Civil Unrest" in Los Angeles (which followed the "Rodney King incident"), in which many alcohol outlets were damaged leading to a decrease in alcohol outlet density, on crime. We leverage the natural experiment created by the closure of alcohol outlets in certain areas and not others to explore the effects of alcohol availability on assault crimes at the census tract level. We develop a hierarchical model that controls for important covariates (such as race and socio-economic status) and accounts for unexplained spatial and temporal variability. While our model is somewhat complex, its hierarchical Bayesian analysis is accessible via the WinBUGS software. Our results show that, keeping other effects fixed, the reduction in alcohol availability within a census tract was associated with a drop in the assaultive violence rate at the census tract level. Comparing several dual candidate changepoint models using the Deviance Information Criterion, the drop in assaultive violence rate is best seen as having occurred one year after the reduction in alcohol availability, with the effect lasting roughly five years. We also create maps of the fitted assault rates in Los Angeles, as well as spatial residual maps that suggest various spatially-varying covariates are still missing from our model.

Objective: Neighborhoods represent a unique level of analysis where social and material determinants of social capital may be lodged. The 1992 civil unrest in Los Angeles following the Rodney King verdict provided an opportunity to determine if a change in the material environment (i.e., the loss of off-sale alcohol outlets) resulted in a subsequent change in a potential indicator of social capital-civic engagement-as measured by voting rates., Method: Longitudinal analyses of voting rates between 1990 and 1996 for the 480 census tracts affected by the civil unrest were conducted. Tracts that lost and did not lose off-sale alcohol outlets were compared using piecewise hierarchical models that accounted for both time-varying and census-tract-level confounders, as well as for spatial autocorrelation., Results: In the post-unrest period, the increase in voting was significantly greater in tracts where there was a loss of alcohol outlets (beta = 0.393, p < .05). Findings remained after taking into account time-varying effects of the changes in ethnicity, gender, and age; and baseline effects of voting, potential for social organization, outlet density, and deprivation. The loss of alcohol outlets was associated with an average 3.0% increase in voting rate in the postunrest period, translating into an average increase of 50-212 voters per tract, depending on the size of the tract., Conclusions: Loss of off-sale alcohol outlets in the 1992 civil unrest was associated with increased voting at the census tract level. Findings support the concept that loss of alcohol outlets in the neighborhood environment may contribute to the development of social capital, possibly through social network expansion.