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Ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) has severe adverse health impacts, making it crucial to reduce PM 2.5 exposure for public health. Meteorological and emissions factors, which considerably affect the PM 2.5 concentrations in the atmosphere, vary substantially under different climate change scenarios. In this work, global PM 2.5 concentrations from 2021 to 2100 were generated by combining the deep learning technique, reanalysis data, emission data, and bias-corrected CMIP6 future climate scenario data. Based on the estimated PM 2.5 concentrations, the future premature mortality burden was assessed using the Global Exposure Mortality Model. Our results reveal that SSP3-7.0 scenario is associated with the highest PM 2.5 exposure, with a global concentration of 34.5 μg/m 3 in 2100, while SSP1-2.6 scenario has the lowest exposure, with an estimated of 15.7 μg/m 3 in 2100. PM 2.5 -related deaths for individuals under 75 years will decrease by 16.3 and 10.5% under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, from 2030s to 2090s. However, premature mortality for elderly individuals (>75 years) will increase, causing the contrary trends of improved air quality and increased total PM 2.5 -related deaths in the four SSPs. Our results emphasize the need for stronger air pollution mitigation measures to offset the future burden posed by population age.

Air pollution has become a serious environmental problem causing severe consequences in our ecology, climate, health, and urban development. Effective and efficient monitoring and mitigation of air pollution require a comprehensive understanding of the air pollution process through a reliable database carrying important information about the spatiotemporal variations of air pollutant concentrations at various spatial and temporal scales. Traditional analysis suffers from the severe insufficiency of data collected by only a few stations. In this study, we propose a rigorous framework for the integration of air pollutant concentration data coming from the ground-based stations, which are spatially sparse but temporally dense, and mobile sensors, which are spatially dense but temporally sparse. Based on the integrated database which is relatively dense in space and time, we then estimate air pollutant concentrations for given location and time by applying a two-step local regression model to the data. This study advances the frontier of basic research in air pollution monitoring via the integration of station and mobile sensors and sets up the stage for further research on other spatiotemporal problems involving multi-source and multi-scale information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air pollution exerts serious impacts on human health and sustainable development. The accurate forecasting of air quality can guide the formulation of mitigation strategies and reduce exposure to air pollution. It is beneficial to explicitly consider both spatial and temporal information of multiple factors, e.g., the meteorological data, in the forecasting of air pollutant concentrations. The temporal information of relevant factors collected at a location should be considered for forecasting. In addition, these factors recorded at other locations may also provide useful information. Existing methods utilizing the spatio-temporal information of these relevant factors are usually based on some very complicated frameworks. In this study, we propose a novel and simple spatial attention-based long short-term memory (SA-LSTM) that combines LSTM and a spatial attention mechanism to adaptively utilize the spatio-temporal information of multiple factors for forecasting air pollutant concentrations. Specifically, the SA-LSTM employs gated recurrent connections to extract temporal information of multiple factors at individual locations, and the spatial attention mechanism to spatially fuse the temporal information extracted at these locations. This method is effective and applicable to forecast any air pollutant concentrations when spatio-temporal information of relevant factors has to be utilized. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed SA-LSTM, we apply it to forecast the daily air quality in Hong Kong, a high density city with peculiar cityscapes, by using the air quality and meteorological data. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed SA-LSTM outperforms the conventional models with respect to one-day forecast accuracy, especially for extreme values. Moreover, the attention weights learned by the SA-LSTM can identify hotspots of the air pollution process for reducing computational complexity of forecasting and provide a better understanding of the underlying mechanism of air pollution. Unlabelled Image • A unified method adaptively utilizes spatio-temporal information of multiple factors. • The proposed model combines long short-term memory and a spatial attention mechanism. • The model can automatically identify hotspots of the air pollution process. • The proposed model performs well in forecasting air quality of Hong Kong. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]