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Using generalized linear models (GLMs), Jalaludin et al. (2006; J. Exposure Analysis and Epidemiology 16, 225–237) studied the association between the daily number of visits to emergency departments for cardiovascular disease by the elderly (65+) and five measures of ambient air pollution. Bayesian methods provide an alternative approach to classical time series modelling and are starting to be more widely used. This paper considers Bayesian methods using the dataset used by Jalaludin et al. (2006) , and compares the results from Bayesian methods with those obtained by Jalaludin et al. (2006) using GLM methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among industrialised countries, fine particle (PM 2.5 ) and ozone levels in the Sydney metropolitan area of Australia are relatively low. Annual mean PM 2.5 levels have historically remained below 8 μg/m 3 while warm season (November–March) ozone levels occasionally exceed the Australian guideline value of 0.10 ppm (daily 1 h max). Yet, these levels are still below those seen in the United States and Europe. This analysis focuses on two related questions: (1) what is the public health burden associated with air pollution in Sydney; and (2) to what extent would reducing air pollution reduce the number of hospital admissions, premature deaths and number of years of life lost (YLL)? We addressed these questions by applying a damage function approach to Sydney population, health, PM 2.5 and ozone data for 2007 within the BenMAP-CE software tool to estimate health impacts and economic benefits. We found that 430 premature deaths (90% CI: 310–540) and 5800 YLL (95% CI: 3900–7600) are attributable to 2007 levels of PM 2.5 (about 2% of total deaths and 1.8% of YLL in 2007). We also estimate about 630 (95% CI: 410–840) respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions attributable to 2007 PM 2.5 and ozone exposures. Reducing air pollution levels by even a small amount will yield a range of health benefits. Reducing 2007 PM 2.5 exposure in Sydney by 10% would, over 10 years, result in about 650 (95% CI: 430–850) fewer premature deaths, a gain of 3500 (95% CI: 2300–4600) life-years and about 700 (95% CI: 450–930) fewer respiratory and cardiovascular hospital visits. These results suggest that substantial health benefits are attainable in Sydney with even modest reductions in air pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]