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Background: The impact of viral load (VL) decay and cumulative VL on CD4 recovery and AIDS after highly-active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is unknown. Methods and Findings: Three virologic kinetic parameters (first year and overall exponential VL decay constants, and first year VL slope) and cumulative VL during HAART were estimated for 2,278 patients who initiated HAART in the U.S. Military HIV Natural History Study. CD4 and VL trajectories were computed using linear and nonlinear Generalized Estimating Equations models. Multivariate Poisson and linear regression models were used to determine associations of VL parameters with CD4 recovery, adjusted for factors known to correlate with immune recovery. Cumulative VL higher than the sample median was independently associated with an increased risk of AIDS (relative risk 2.38, 95% confidence interval 1.56-3.62, p<0.001). Among patients with VL suppression, first year VL decay and slope were independent predictors of early CD4 recovery (p = 0.001) and overall gain (p<0.05). Despite VL suppression, those with slow decay during the first year of HAART as well as during the entire therapy period (overall), in general, gained less CD4 cells compared to the other subjects (133 vs. 195.4 cells/μL; p = 0.001) even after adjusting for potential confounders. Conclusions: In a cohort with free access to healthcare, independent of established predictors of AIDS and CD4 recovery during HAART, cumulative VL and virologic decay patterns were associated with AIDS and distinct aspects of CD4 reconstitution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Whether vexing clinical decision-making dilemmas can be partly addressed by recent advances in genomics is unclear. For example, when to initiate highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) during HIV-1 infection remains a clinical dilemma. This decision relies heavily on assessing AIDS risk based on the CD4+ T cell count and plasma viral load. However, the trajectories of these two laboratory markers are influenced, in part, by polymorphisms in CCR5, the major HIV coreceptor, and the gene copy number of CCL3L1, a potent CCR5 ligand and HIV-suppressive chemokine. Therefore, we determined whether accounting for both genetic and laboratory markers provided an improved means of assessing AIDS risk. Methods and Findings: In a prospective, single-site, ethnically-mixed cohort of 1,132 HIV-positive subjects, we determined the AIDS risk conveyed by the laboratory and genetic markers separately and in combination. Subjects were assigned to a low, moderate or high genetic risk group (GRG) based on variations in CCL3L1 and CCR5. The predictive value of the CCL3L1- CCR5 GRGs, as estimated by likelihood ratios, was equivalent to that of the laboratory markers. GRG status also predicted AIDS development when the laboratory markers conveyed a contrary risk. Additionally, in two separate and large groups of HIV+ subjects from a natural history cohort, the results from additive risk-scoring systems and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis revealed that the laboratory and CCL3L1-CCR5 genetic markers together provided more prognostic information than either marker alone. Furthermore, GRGs independently predicted the time interval from seroconversion to CD4+ cell count thresholds used to guide HAART initiation. Conclusions: The combination of the laboratory and genetic markers captures a broader spectrum of AIDS risk than either marker alone. By tracking a unique aspect of AIDS risk distinct from that captured by the laboratory parameters, CCL3L1- CCR5 genotypes may have utility in HIV clinical management. These findings illustrate how genomic information might be applied to achieve practical benefits of personalized medicine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]