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Irrigated cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is produced mainly in Northwest China, where groundwater is heavily used. To alleviate water scarcity and increase regional economic benefits, a four-year (2016–2019) field experiment was conducted in Qira Oasis, Xingjiang Province, to evaluate irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) in cotton production using the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2), that was calibrated and validated using volumetric soil water content (θ), soil temperature (Tsoil°) and plant transpiration (T), along with cotton growth and yield data collected from full and deficit irrigation experimental plots managed with a newly developed Decision Support System for Irrigation Scheduling (DSSIS). In the validation phase, RZWQM2 adequately simulated (S) topsoil θ and Tsoil°, as well as cotton growth (average index of agreement (IOA) > 0.76). Relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) and percent bias (PBIAS) of cotton seed yield were 8% and 2.5%, respectively, during calibration, and 20% and −10.3% during validation. The cotton crop’s (M) T was well S (−18% < PBIAS < 14% and IOA > 0.95) for both full and deficit irrigation fields. The validated RZWQM2 model was subsequently run with seven irrigation scenarios with 850 to 350 mm water (Irr850, Irr750, Irr700, Irr650, Irr550, Irr450, and Irr350) and long-term (1990–2019) weather data to determine the best IWUE. Simulation results showed that the Irr650 treatment generated the greatest cotton seed yield (4.09 Mg ha−1) and net income (US $3165 ha−1), while the Irr550 treatment achieved the greatest IWUE (6.53 kg ha−1 mm−1) and net water production (0.94 $ m−3). These results provided farmers guidelines to adopt deficit irrigation strategies.

An important but rarely studied aspect of crop modeling is the uncertainty associated with model calibration and its effect on model prediction. Biomass and grain yield data from a four-year maize experiment (2008&ndash, 2011) with six irrigation treatments were divided into subsets by either treatments (Calibration-by-Treatment) or years (Calibration-by-Year). These subsets were then used to calibrate crop cultivar parameters in CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-Maize implemented within RZWQM2 (Root Zone Water Quality Model 2) using the automatic Parameter ESTimation (PEST) algorithm to explore model calibration uncertainties. After calibration for each subset, PEST also generated 300 cultivar parameter sets by assuming a normal distribution of each parameter within their reported values in the literature, using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The parameter sets that produced similar goodness of fit (11&ndash, 164 depending on subset used for calibration) were then used to predict all the treatments and years of the entire dataset. Our results showed that the selection of calibration datasets greatly affected the calibrated crop parameters and their uncertainty, as well as prediction uncertainty of grain yield and biomass. The high variability in model prediction of grain yield and biomass among the six (Calibration-by-Treatment) or the four (Calibration-by-Year) scenarios indicated that parameter uncertainty should be considered in calibrating CERES-Maize with grain yield and biomass data from different irrigation treatments, and model predictions should be provided with confidence intervals.