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In recent years, China's industrial economy has grown rapidly and steadily. Concurrently, carbon emissions have gradually increased, among which agricultural production is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions. It is necessary to reduce agricultural carbon emissions by improving their efficiency to achieve the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions in 2030. From a dynamic and static point of view, this study puts agricultural carbon emissions into the evaluation index system of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and analyzes the agricultural carbon emission efficiency and its influencing factors in Hubei Province. First, the unexpected output Slacks-based measure (SBM) model in data envelopment analysis was used to evaluate the agricultural carbon emission efficiency of Hubei Province in 2018 and compared it with other provinces horizontally. Second, the Malmquist–Luenberger index was used to analyze the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018. The role of technological progress and technical efficiency change in the development of low-carbon agriculture in Hubei Province was analyzed. The results showed that agricultural production efficiency in Hubei Province improved from 2004 to 2018, and the overall level was slightly higher than the average level in China. However, agriculture has not eliminated the extensive development modes of high input, low efficiency, high emission, and high pollution. The efficiency of technological progress in agricultural resource utilization in Hubei Province was close to the optimal level. The improvement space was small. Hence, the low efficiency of agricultural technology is a key factor restricting the improvement of agricultural production efficiency. The results provide a reference for low-carbon agricultural policy formulation and expand the policy choice path. This has practical significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]