1. South East Europe Regular Economic Report, No. 3 : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms
- Author
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World Bank
- Subjects
CHEMICAL INDUSTRY ,PRIVATE INVESTMENT ,EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES ,DEPOSIT ,INFLATION ,FISCAL DEFICIT ,INSTITUTIONAL REFORM ,FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION ,DEPOSIT INSURANCE ,HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT ,UNEMPLOYMENT ,EXPORT GROWTH ,RECESSION ,BANK LOAN ,PERSONAL INCOME ,TAX TREATMENT ,CREDIT GROWTH ,FINANCIAL MARKET ,PUBLIC FINANCES ,PUBLIC SPENDING ,SOVEREIGN RATING ,METALS ,FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS ,EARNINGS ,EMERGING MARKETS ,GRACE PERIOD ,PENSIONS ,FINANCIAL OPENNESS ,DEBT LEVELS ,CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP ,ETHNIC GROUPS ,FOREIGN CURRENCY DEBT ,INTERNATIONAL BOND ISSUES ,SOVEREIGN DEBT ,BORROWING COSTS ,REAL WAGES ,FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE ,GLOBAL ECONOMY ,ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ,MARKET CONFIDENCE ,ECONOMIC SITUATION ,BASIS POINTS ,TAX COLLECTIONS ,FOREIGN BANKS ,COMMERCIAL REGISTRY ,LOAN MARKETS ,LIQUIDITY ,FISCAL DEFICITS ,ENVIRONMENTAL ,PUBLIC DEBT ,ARREARS ,CONTINGENT LIABILITIES ,DEBT RESTRUCTURING ,PRICE CHANGES ,DOMESTIC CREDIT ,FINANCIAL SERVICES ,MINIMUM WAGE ,AUCTIONS ,CASH FLOW ,BANKING SYSTEMS ,FINANCING REQUIREMENTS ,CLIMATE CHANGE ,LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION ,EXTERNAL SHOCKS ,CARBON ,ELECTRICITY GENERATION ,TRADE BALANCE ,BINDING CONSTRAINT ,MACROECONOMIC STABILITY ,BANKRUPTCY ,INVESTOR PROTECTIONS ,LENDERS ,ENERGY CONSUMPTION ,BOND SPREADS ,GOVERNMENT REVENUES ,INCOME TAX ,RETURN ON ASSETS ,CREDITWORTHINESS ,BENEFIT ANALYSIS ,CAPITAL STOCK ,FINANCIAL SYSTEM ,FISCAL POLICY ,BANK LINKAGES ,FOREIGN CAPITAL ,HOUSEHOLDS ,DIVERSIFICATION ,BOND ,EMPLOYER ,BAILIFF ,FOREIGN INVESTMENTS ,INVESTMENT RATES ,ECONOMIC CLIMATE ,EXTERNAL BORROWING ,STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT ,PRIVATIZATION ,COMPETITIVE TENDERS ,ECONOMISTS ,LOAN ,MARKET DISTORTIONS ,COMMODITY PRICES ,DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ,NONPERFORMING LOANS ,UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ,FINANCIAL RESOURCES ,GLOBALIZATION ,REPAYMENT ,CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS ,FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION ,NONPAYMENT ,INVESTMENT FUNDS ,CAPITALIZATION ,INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS ,TRADING ,AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES ,CURRENCY MISMATCHES ,BUDGETING ,LEGAL ENVIRONMENT ,BIDS ,LOSS OF CONFIDENCE ,PUBLIC INVESTMENT ,CPI ,ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION ,CREDIT MARKET ,EXPORT PERFORMANCE ,FINANCIAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENTS ,TRANSACTION ,CAPITAL FLOWS ,LABOR FORCE SURVEY ,TAX ,FOREIGN INVESTORS ,INVENTORY ,ECONOMIC GROWTH ,EDUCATION SYSTEMS ,ETHNIC MINORITIES ,STOCKS ,BANK LENDING ,AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ,ASSET QUALITY ,ECONOMIC CRISIS ,RULE OF LAW ,OIL ,SHAREHOLDER ,POLITICAL STABILITY ,RESERVES ,DEPOSITOR ,RISK MANAGEMENT ,CONFIDENCE OF LENDERS ,STATE GUARANTEES ,LIVING STANDARDS ,REGISTRATION FEE ,FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ,WAGES ,COUNTRY RISKS ,EXTERNAL DEBT ,INTERNATIONAL BOND ,LABOR MARKET ,SAFETY NET ,PAYMENT OBLIGATIONS ,CREDIT LINE ,LABOR MOBILITY ,SOCIAL SECURITY ,CAPITAL ADEQUACY ,EQUALITY ,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ,CENTRAL BANK ,RETURN ,GOVERNMENT BUDGETS ,INVESTMENT CLIMATE ,ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ,ACCESS TO MARKETS ,CREDIT CRUNCH ,COAL ,DEFICITS ,FINANCIAL SAFETY ,LOAN QUALITY ,CREDIT DEFAULT ,REMITTANCES ,CREDIT INFORMATION ,OIL PRICES ,HUMAN CAPITAL ,PRIVATE INVESTORS ,INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ,INEQUALITIES ,INSURANCE ,EQUITY ISSUES ,REGULATORY BARRIERS ,CURRENT ACCOUNT ,TREASURY ,LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIOS ,ENFORCEMENT OF CONTRACTS ,PRICE VOLATILITY ,BUSINESS CONFIDENCE ,AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT ,MINIMUM CAPITAL REQUIREMENT ,EQUITY MARKETS ,LIMITED ACCESS ,INVESTMENT BANK ,BUDGET CONSTRAINTS ,ENERGY EFFICIENCY ,MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ,JOB CREATION ,LEGAL FRAMEWORK ,LABOR FORCE ,SAVINGS ,FOREIGN CURRENCY ,EXPENDITURE - Abstract
After two years of fragile recovery from the global recession, as a group the six South East European countries (SEE6) Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia are experiencing a double-dip recession in 2012. Deteriorating external conditions, the impact of the severe winter on economic activity, and a continuing rise in unemployment early in the year took a toll on consumption, investments, and exports. In this fragile environment, Serbia, Albania, and Montenegro in particular will need to persevere in reducing fiscal deficits and bringing down debt, even as they must continue to improve the investment climate and reform labor markets and the public sector. In all SEE6 countries, public sector arrears pose special challenges to fiscal management and the private sector, and there are unfinished, structural reforms agendas. After two years of deep crisis, a sluggish recovery, rising unemployment and poverty, and a continuing recession even with the best efforts on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, which must continue there is a danger that SEE6 countries are caught in a vicious circle that reinforces the cycle of long-term austerity, low if not negative growth, high debt, and even higher risks of social upheaval. To prevent this outcome, this report argues, SEE6 governments need to redouble their efforts to accelerate fiscal and structural reforms. These countries have largely exhausted their fiscal space and reduced public investment (except Kosovo, an outlier) to a fraction of what is needed to maintain public capital stock in critical infrastructure. Private investment is suppressed by the lack of productive, complementary public investments, slow credit recovery, and depressed domestic demand. External demand is minimal, and exports are not only too few, they are prevented from becoming an immediate, new engine of growth by infrastructure, finance, and other deficiencies. If such accelerated reforms materialize, external support well-coordinated and targeting the region as a whole, not just individual countries from the European Union (EU) and global international financial institutions (IFIs) could help ease the transition to a more sustained growth in medium term. In November 2012, the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the World Bank announced 30 billion in financing for Central and South East European countries over the next two years. In SEE6 countries, this timely initiative would likely be delivered via the Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF) and other IFI resources. Investment Promotion Agency (IPA) resources will also be important, especially in supporting institutional reform and rural development. By focusing on major infrastructure of regional significance (rail, highways, energy, and gas) and on jobs and small and medium enterprises, the efficiency of investments, growth, and employment could be substantially heightened. However, additional financing for growth and jobs could prove effective only if accompanied by intensified fiscal and structural reforms, especially in the areas of investment climate, labor markets, and governance.
- Published
- 2012