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We construct a cohort-based frailty index from age-related health deficits to investigate physiological aging in India over the period 1990-2019. During this period, the Indian states underwent at different speeds the epidemiological transition and experienced unprecedented economic growth. We show that the rate of physiological aging remained remarkably stable to the changing environment. Age-related health deficits increased by about 3 percent per year of age with little variation across states, ages, cohorts, and over time. We find that, with advancing epidemiological transition, health deficits for given age declined at the individual level (within states and within cohorts). Across cohorts born between 1900 and 1995, we show that, for given age, health deficits are higher for later-born cohorts until birth years around 1940 and remained trendless afterwards. We propose a selection-based theory of aging during the epidemiological transition that explains these facts., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Krenz, Strulik. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

We extract data on physiological aging by computing a frailty index for 201 countries over the period 1990-2019. Using panel estimation techniques, we show that the macro frailty index replicates basic regularities previously observed in related studies of aging at the individual level. We then use the frailty index to highlight trends of global physiological aging and its relationship to economic growth. Holding population age structure fixed, the global frailty index has on average increased by about 2 percent over the last 30 years. The average person has therefore aged by what corresponds to about one life-year of physiological aging. This overall trend is relatively similar across different geographical regions. We also document a negative relationship between physiological aging of the workforce and economic growth. According to our preferred specification, a one percent increase in the frailty index of the workforce is associated with a 1.5 percent decline of GDP per capita. This means that average annual growth of labor productivity would have been 0.1 percentage points higher without physiological aging in the period 1990-2019., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

In this paper, I propose a life cycle model of occupational choice with endogenous health behavior, aging, and longevity. Health-demanding work leads to a faster accumulation of health deficits and is remunerated with a hazard markup on wages. Health deficit accumulation is also influenced by unhealthy consumption and health care expenditure. I calibrate the model for a 20 year old average American in 2010 and show the following results, among others. Health-demanding work is ceteris paribus preferred by male, young, and healthy individuals with a relatively low level of education. Health demanding work has a negligible effect on health behavior because income and health investment effects largely offset each other, implying that health effects can be attributed almost fully to the direct health burden of work. Better medical technology induces low-skilled individuals to spend a greater part of their life in health-demanding work and thus increases the health gradient of education. High wealth endowments protect against unhealthy occupational choices. I show robustness of the results in an extension of the model with regard to endogenous retirement., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The fetal origins hypothesis suggests that health and nutrition shocks in utero are causally related to health deficits in old age. It has received considerable empirical support, both within epidemiology and economics but so far it has not been integrated into a life cycle theory of human aging and longevity. The present study shows that the health deficit model, based on the frailty index developed in gerontology, generates shock amplification consistent with the hypothesis. In order to discuss human health over the life cycle from conception to death, we develop a theory of ontogenetic growth and health in utero and during childhood, unify it with the health deficit model of adult aging, and discuss the transmission of early-life shocks to late-life health deficit accumulation., (© 2021 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

We integrate time-inconsistent decision making due to hyperbolic discounting into a gerontologically founded life cycle model with endogenous aging and longevity. Individuals can slow down aging and postpone death by health investments and by reducing unhealthy consumption, conceptualized as smoking. We show that individuals continuously revise their original plans to smoke less and invest more in their health. Consequently, they accumulate health deficits faster and die earlier than originally planned. This fundamental health consequence of time-inconsistency has not been addressed in the literature so far. Because death is endogenous, any attempt to establish the time-consistent first-best solution by manipulating the first order conditions through (sin-) taxes and subsidies is bound to fail. We calibrate the model with U.S. data for an average American in the year 2012 and estimate that time-inconsistent health behavior causes a loss of about 4 years of life. We show how price policy can nudge individuals to behave more healthy such that they actually realize the longevity and value of life planned at age 20., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We study biological aging of elderly U.S. Americans born 1904-1966. We use thirteen waves of the Health and Retirement Study and construct a frailty index as the number of health deficits present in a person measured relative to the number of potential deficits. We find that, on average, Americans develop 5% more health deficits per year, that men age slightly faster than women, and that, at any age above 50, Caucasians display significantly fewer health deficits than African Americans. We also document a steady time trend of health improvements. For each year of later birth, health deficits decline on average by about 1%. This health trend is about the same across regions and for men and women, but significantly lower for African Americans compared to Caucasians. In non-linear regressions, we find that regional differences in aging follow a particular regularity, akin to the compensation effect of mortality. Health deficits converge for men and women and across American regions and suggest a life span of the American population of about 97 years.

We investigate how the season of birth is related to human health and aging. For this purpose, we use five waves of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) dataset and construct a health deficit index for 21 European countries. Results from log-linear regressions suggest that, on average, elderly European men age faster when they were born in spring and summer (compared to autumn). At any given age, they have developed about 3.5 percent more health deficits. These differences due to seasons of birth are not mediated by body height and education. In a subsample of Southern European countries, where the seasonal variation of sunlight is smaller, the birth season plays an insignificant role for health in old age. In a subsample of Northern countries, in contrast, the season of birth coefficients increase. At any given age, elderly Northern European men born in spring have developed, on average, 8.7 percent more health deficits than those born in autumn. In non-linear regressions we find that the speed of aging is also associated with the birth season., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We analyze how childhood hunger affects human aging for a panel of European individuals. For this purpose, we use six waves of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) dataset and construct a health deficit index. Results from log-linear regressions suggest that, on average, elderly European men and women developed about 20 percent more health deficits when they experienced a hunger episode in their childhood. The effect becomes larger when the hunger episode is experienced earlier in childhood. In non-linear regressions (akin to the Gompertz-Makeham law), we obtain greater effects suggesting that health deficits in old age are up to 40 percent higher for children suffering from hunger. The difference of health deficits between hungry and non-hungry individuals increases absolutely and relatively with age. This implies that individuals who suffered from hunger as children age faster., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We analyze human aging-understood as health deficit accumulation-for a panel of European individuals, using four waves of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE data set) and constructing a health deficit index. Results from log-linear regressions suggest that, on average, elderly European men and women develop approximately 2.5 % more health deficits from one birthday to the next. In nonlinear regressions (akin to the Gompertz-Makeham model), however, we find much greater rates of aging and large differences between men and women as well as between countries. Interestingly, these differences follow a particular regularity (akin to the compensation effect of mortality) and suggest an age at which average health deficits converge for men and women and across countries. This age, which may be associated with human life span, is estimated as 102 ± 2.6 years.

We investigate occupation-specific aging patterns before and after retirement and test the level and rate effects of occupation predicted by the health capital model and the health deficit model. We use five waves of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and construct a frailty index for elderly men and women from 10 European countries. Occupational groups are classified according to low vs. high education, blue vs. white collar, and high vs. low physical or psychosocial job burden. Controlling for individual fixed effects, we find that, regardless of the classification used, workers from the first (low-status) group display more health deficits at any age and accumulate health deficits faster than workers from the second (high-status) group. We instrument retirement by statutory retirement ages ("normal" and "early") and find that the health of workers in low-status occupations benefits greatly from retirement, whereas retirement effects for workers in high-status occupations are small and frequently insignificant. In support of the health deficit model, we find that the health status of individuals from low- and high-status groups diverges before and after retirement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I discuss a standard model of life cycle consumption behavior when the discount rate depends on the state of health and health deteriorates with increasing age. I show that this feature allows the introduction of time-consistent discounting at a non-constant rate and to model, in a convenient way, the notion that individuals discount future payoffs at higher rates when the risk of death increases. I show that the model generates an empirically plausible age-consumption pattern even when perfect annuity markets exist. • A new theory of time-variant discount rates. • Discount rates depend on the state of health. • Theory explains how time-consistent decisions are possible with non-constant discount rates. • Theory explains a hump-shaped age-consumption profile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper integrates into public economics a biologically founded, stochastic process of individual aging. The novel approach enables us to quantitatively characterize the optimal joint design of health and retirement policy behind the veil of ignorance for today and in response to future medical progress. Calibrating our model to Germany, our analysis suggests that the current social insurance policy instruments are set close to the (constrained) socially optimal levels, given proportional contribution rates for health and pension finance, the equivalence principle in the pension system, and a common statutory retirement age. Future progress in medical technology calls for a potentially drastic increase in health spending and a higher retirement age without lowering the pension contribution rate. Interestingly, from an ex ante point of view, medical progress and higher health spending are in conflict with the goal to reduce health inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Novel theory of depression. • Combines insights from happiness research, life cycle economics, and gerontology. • Explains why depressed people consume more unhealthy goods, exercise less, and save less. • Allows quantitative analysis of depression effects on health outcomes. • Motivates income gradient in health and depression. Abstract In this paper, I propose an economic theory of depression and its impact on health behavior and longevity. Based on studies from happiness research, depression is conceptualized as a drastic loss of utility and value of life for unchanged fundamentals. The model is used to explain how untreated depression leads to unhealthy behavior and adverse health outcomes: depressed individuals are predicted to save less, invest less in their health, consume more unhealthy goods, and exercise less. As a result, they age faster and die earlier than non-depressed individuals. I calibrate the model for an average American and discus how depression enlarges the socioeconomic gradient of health and consider feedback effects of depression on earnings and of physical exercise on depression as well as a variety of depression shocks. Delays in treatment for depression in young adulthood are predicted to have significant repercussions on late-life health outcomes and longevity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new framework to discuss self-control problems in the context of life-cycle health and longevity. Individual decisions are conceptualized as the partial control of impulsive desires of a short-run self by a rationally forward-looking long-run self. The short-run self strives for immediate gratification through consumption of health-neutral and unhealthy goods. The long-run self reflects the long-term consequences of unhealthy behavior on health outcomes and longevity and invests time and money to improve current and future health. The model is calibrated with data from the United States and used to provide an assessment of the impact of imperfect self-control on unhealthy consumption, health investments, lifetime health, and the age at death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I unify the economic theories of addiction and health deficit accumulation and develop a life cycle theory in which individuals take into account the fact that the consumption of addictive goods reduces their health and longevity. I distinguish two types of addiction: sophisticated and naive. Individuals with sophisticated addiction perfectly control their addiction. Individuals with naive addiction, though otherwise rational and forward looking, fail to fully understand how their addiction develops. I argue that the life cycle consumption pattern predicted for naive addiction is more suitable for motivating empirically observable patterns of addictive goods consumption. I take the case of smoking as unhealthy behavior, calibrate the model with U.S. data, and apply it in order to investigate the life cycle patterns of smoking and quitting smoking and the socioeconomic gradients of unhealthy consumption and longevity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unhealthy people adapt to their poor state of health and are usually happier than expected by healthy people. In this paper, we investigate how adapting to a deteriorating state of health affects health spending, life expectancy, and the value of life. We set up a life-cycle model in which individuals are subject to physiological aging, calibrate it with data from gerontology, and compare behavior and outcomes of adapting and non-adapting individuals. While adaptation generally increases lifetime utility (by about 2 percent), its impact on health behavior and longevity depends crucially on whether individuals are aware of their adaptive behavior, i.e. whether they adapt in a naive or sophisticated way. We also compute the QALY change implied by health shocks and discuss whether and how adaptation influences results and the desirability of positive health innovations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In developed countries, women are expected to live about 4-5 years longer than men. In this paper, we develop a novel approach to gauge the extent to which gender differences in longevity can be attributed to gender-specific preferences and health behavior. We set up a physiologically founded model of health deficit accumulation and calibrate it using recent insights from gerontology. From fitting life cycle health expenditure and life expectancy, we obtain estimates of the gender-specific preference parameters. We then perform the counterfactual experiment of endowing women with the preferences of men. In our benchmark scenario, this reduces the gender gap in life expectancy from 4.6 to 1.4 years. When we add gender-specific preferences for unhealthy consumption, the model can motivate up to 89 percent of the gender gap. Our theory offers also an economic explanation for why the gender gap declines with rising income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does prosperity lead to greater longevity? If so, what is the strength of the income channel? To address these questions we develop a life cycle model in which households are subject to physiological aging. In modeling aging we draw on recent research in the fields of biology and medicine. The speed of the aging process, and thus the age of death, are endogenously determined by optimal health investments. A calibrated version of the model accounts well for the observed nonlinear cross-country link between longevity and income, also known as the Preston curve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]