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Recently, Mahalanobis distance (D M ) was suggested as a statistical measure of physiological dysregulation in aging individuals. We constructed D M variants using sets of biomarkers collected at the two visits of the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) and performed joint analyses of longitudinal observations of D M and follow-up mortality in LLFS using joint models. We found that D M is significantly associated with mortality (hazard ratio per standard deviation: 1.31 [1.16, 1.48] to 2.22 [1.84, 2.67]) after controlling for age and other covariates. GWAS of random intercepts and slopes of D M estimated from joint models found a genome-wide significant SNP (rs12652543, p=7.2×10 -9 ) in the TRIO gene associated with the slope of D M constructed from biomarkers declining in late life. Review of biological effects of genes corresponding to top SNPs from GWAS of D M slopes revealed that these genes are broadly involved in cancer prognosis and axon guidance/synapse function. Although axon growth is mainly observed during early development, the axon guidance genes can function in adults and contribute to maintenance of neural circuits and synaptic plasticity. Our results indicate that decline in axons' ability to maintain complex regulatory networks may potentially play an important role in the increase in physiological dysregulation during aging.

Biological aging results in changes in an organism that accumulate over age in a complex fashion across different regulatory systems, and their cumulative effect manifests in increased physiological dysregulation (PD) and declining robustness and resilience that increase risks of health disorders and death. Several composite measures involving multiple biomarkers that capture complex effects of aging have been proposed. We applied one such approach, the Mahalanobis distance (D M ), to baseline measurements of various biomarkers (inflammation, hematological, diabetes-associated, lipids, endocrine, renal) in 3,279 participants from the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) with complete biomarker data. We used D M to estimate the level of PD by summarizing information about multiple deviations of biomarkers from specified "norms" in the reference population (here, LLFS participants younger than 60 years at baseline). An increase in D M was associated with significantly higher mortality risk (hazard ratio per standard deviation of D M : 1.42; 95% confidence interval: [1.3, 1.54]), even after adjustment for a composite measure summarizing 85 health-related deficits (disabilities, diseases, less severe symptoms), age, and other covariates. Such composite measures significantly improved mortality predictions especially in the subsample of participants from families enriched for exceptional longevity (the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves are 0.88 vs. 0.85, in models with and without the composite measures, p = 2.9 × 10 -5 ). Sensitivity analyses confirmed that our conclusions are not sensitive to different aspects of computational procedures. Our findings provide the first evidence of association of PD with mortality and its predictive performance in a unique sample selected for exceptional familial longevity., (Copyright © 2020 Arbeev, Bagley, Ukraintseva, Duan, Kulminski, Stallard, Wu, Christensen, Feitosa, Thyagarajan, Zmuda and Yashin.)

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder caused by the interplay of multiple genetic and non-genetic factors. Hypertension is one of the AD risk factors that has been linked to underlying pathological changes like senile plaques and neurofibrillary tangles formation as well as hippocampal atrophy. In this study, we investigated the differences in the genetic architecture of AD between hypertensive and non-hypertensive subjects in four independent cohorts. Our genome-wide association analyses revealed significant associations of 15 novel potentially AD-associated polymorphisms (P < 5E-06) that were located outside the chromosome 19q13 region and were significant either in hypertensive or non-hypertensive groups. The closest genes to 14 polymorphisms were not associated with AD at P < 5E-06 in previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Also, four of them were located within two chromosomal regions (i.e., 3q13.11 and 17q21.2) that were not associated with AD at P < 5E-06 before. In addition, 30 genes demonstrated evidence of group-specific associations with AD at the false discovery rates (FDR) < 0.05 in our gene-based and transcriptome-wide association analyses. The chromosomal regions corresponding to four genes (i.e., 2p13.1, 9p13.3, 17q12, and 18q21.1) were not associated with AD at P < 5E-06 in previous GWAS. These genes may serve as a list of prioritized candidates for future functional studies. Our pathway-enrichment analyses revealed the associations of 11 non-group-specific and four group-specific pathways with AD at FDR < 0.05. These findings provided novel insights into the potential genetic heterogeneity of AD among subjects with and without hypertension.

Recently suggested novel implementation of the statistical distance measure (DM) for evaluating "physiological dysregulation" (PD) in aging individuals (based on measuring deviations of multiple biomarkers from baseline or normal physiological states) allows reducing high-dimensional biomarker space into a single PD estimate. Here we constructed DM using biomarker profiles from FRAMCOHORT (Framingham Heart Study) and CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) Research Materials obtained from the NHLBI Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center, and estimated effect of PD on total survival, onset of unhealthy life (proxy for "robustness") and survival following the onset of unhealthy life (proxy for "resilience"). We investigated relationships between PD and declines in stress resistance and adaptive capacity not directly observed in data. PD was more strongly associated with the onset of unhealthy life than with survival after disease suggesting that declines in robustness and resilience with age may have overlapping as well as distinct mechanisms. We conclude that multiple deviations of physiological markers from their normal states (reflected in higher PD) may contribute to increased vulnerability to many diseases and precede their clinical manifestation. This supports potential use of PD in health care as a preclinical indicator of transition from healthy to unhealthy state., (© The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.)

Backgrounds: Elucidating the causal effects of common intermediate risk factors on the onset of age-related diseases is indispensable for developing prevention and intervention procedures., Methods: We conducted two-stage time-to-event Mendelian randomization meta-analyses combining five large-scale longitudinal cohorts to investigate dynamic causal effects of cardiovascular disease risk factors including body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and lipids on the age-at-onset of age-related diseases. We constructed weighted polygenic scores based on genetic markers from previously reported genome-wide association studies as instrumental variables to estimate the causal effects. To avoid false positive due to potential pleiotropic effects of the genetic markers, we performed a leave-one-out sensitivity analysis and an MR-Egger sensitivity analysis that we expanded in the survival context., Results: Our results show that elevated BMI increases the absolute risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) (p=7.68e-04), heart failure (p=9.03e-03), and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) (p=1.69e-03) and the causal effects start at different ages. A significant association between BMI and the risk of stroke is observed; however, the sensitivity analyses suggest that the association is attributed to the potential pleiotropic effects of rs2867125 and rs1558902. Raised SBP levels are significantly associated with the development of atrial fibrillation (p=6.42e-03). Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels are inversely associated with the age-at-onset of T2D (p=1.05e-02). In addition, LDL-C and triglycerides are inversely associated with the risks of cancer and T2D, respectively. Nevertheless, the sensitivity analyses suggest that these associations are probably due to pleiotropic effects of several single-nucleotide polymorphisms including rs4970834 and rs1260326., Conclusions: Our results highlight the involvement of BMI in the development of multiple age-related diseases. Some observed causal associations can attribute to pleiotropic effects of some genetic variations. These findings have important implications in unraveling causal effects of common risk factors on age-related diseases and guiding effective intervention strategies to reduce the incidence of these diseases., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

A conceptual difficulty in genetics of age-related phenotypes that make individuals vulnerable to disease in post-reproductive life is genetic heterogeneity attributed to an undefined role of evolution in establishing their molecular mechanisms. Here, we performed univariate and pleiotropic genome-wide meta-analyses of 20 age-related phenotypes leveraging longitudinal information in a sample of 33,431 individuals and dealing with the natural-selection-free genetic heterogeneity. We identified 142 non-proxy single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with phenotype-specific (18 SNPs) and pleiotropic (124 SNPs) associations at genome-wide level. Univariate meta-analysis identified two novel (11.1%) and replicated 16 SNPs whereas pleiotropic meta-analysis identified 115 novel (92.7%) and nine replicated SNPs. Pleiotropic associations for most novel (93.9%) and all replicated SNPs were strongly impacted by the natural-selection-free genetic heterogeneity in its unconventional form of antagonistic heterogeneity, implying antagonistic directions of genetic effects for directly correlated phenotypes. Our results show that the common genome-wide approach is well adapted to handle homogeneous univariate associations within Mendelian framework whereas most associations with age-related phenotypes are more complex and well beyond that framework. Dissecting the natural-selection-free genetic heterogeneity is critical for gaining insights into genetics of age-related phenotypes and has substantial and unexplored yet potential for improving efficiency of genome-wide analysis.

The apolipoprotein E (apoE) is a classic example of a gene exhibiting pleiotropism. We examine potential pleiotropic associations of the apoE2 allele in three biodemographic cohorts of long-living individuals, offspring, and spouses from the Long Life Family Study, and intermediate mechanisms, which can link this allele with age-related phenotypes. We focused on age-related macular degeneration, bronchitis, asthma, pneumonia, stroke, creatinine, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diseases of heart (HD), cancer, and survival. Our analysis detected favorable associations of the ε2 allele with lower LDL-C levels, lower risks of HD, and better survival. The ε2 allele was associated with LDL-C in each gender and biodemographic cohort, including long-living individuals, offspring, and spouses, resulting in highly significant association in the entire sample (β = -7.1, p = 6.6 × 10 -44 ). This allele was significantly associated with HD in long-living individuals and offspring (relative risk [RR] = 0.60, p = 3.1 × 10 -6 ) but this association was not mediated by LDL-C. The protective effect on survival was specific for long-living women but it was not explained by LDL-C and HD in the adjusted model (RR = 0.70, p = 2.1 × 10 -2 ). These results show that ε2 allele may favorably influence LDL-C, HD, and survival through three mechanisms. Two of them (HD- and survival-related) are pronounced in the long-living parents and their offspring; the survival-related mechanism is also sensitive to gender. The LDL-C-related mechanism appears to be independent of these factors. Insights into mechanisms linking ε2 allele with age-related phenotypes given biodemographic structure of the population studied may benefit translation of genetic discoveries to health care and personalized medicine., Competing Interests: Author Disclosure Statement. No conflict of interests exist.

Contemporary longitudinal studies collect repeated measurements of biomarkers allowing one to analyze their dynamics in relation to mortality, morbidity, or other health-related outcomes. Rich and diverse data collected in such studies provide opportunities to investigate how various socio-economic, demographic, behavioral and other variables can interact with biological and genetic factors to produce differential rates of aging in individuals. In this paper, we review some recent publications investigating dynamics of biomarkers in relation to mortality, which use single biomarkers as well as cumulative measures combining information from multiple biomarkers. We also discuss the analytical approach, the stochastic process models, which conceptualizes several aging-related mechanisms in the structure of the model and allows evaluating "hidden" characteristics of aging-related changes indirectly from available longitudinal data on biomarkers and follow-up on mortality or onset of diseases taking into account other relevant factors (both genetic and non-genetic). We also discuss an extension of the approach, which considers ranges of "optimal values" of biomarkers rather than a single optimal value as in the original model. We discuss practical applications of the approach to single biomarkers and cumulative measures highlighting that the potential of applications to cumulative measures is still largely underused., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Increasing proportions of elderly individuals in developed countries combined with substantial increases in related medical expenditures make the improvement of the health of the elderly a high priority today. If the process of aging by individuals is a major cause of age related health declines then postponing aging could be an efficient strategy for improving the health of the elderly. Implementing this strategy requires a better understanding of genetic and non-genetic connections among aging, health, and longevity. We review progress and problems in research areas whose development may contribute to analyses of such connections. These include genetic studies of human aging and longevity, the heterogeneity of populations with respect to their susceptibility to disease and death, forces that shape age patterns of human mortality, secular trends in mortality decline, and integrative mortality modeling using longitudinal data. The dynamic involvement of genetic factors in (i) morbidity/mortality risks, (ii) responses to stresses of life, (iii) multi-morbidities of many elderly individuals, (iv) trade-offs for diseases, (v) genetic heterogeneity, and (vi) other relevant aging-related health declines, underscores the need for a comprehensive, integrated approach to analyze the genetic connections for all of the above aspects of aging-related changes. The dynamic relationships among aging, health, and longevity traits would be better understood if one linked several research fields within one conceptual framework that allowed for efficient analyses of available longitudinal data using the wealth of available knowledge about aging, health, and longevity already accumulated in the research field.

The lack of evolutionary established mechanisms linking genes to age-related traits makes the problem of genetic susceptibility to health span inherently complex. One complicating factor is genetic trade-off. Here we focused on long-living participants of the Long Life Family Study (LLFS), their offspring, and spouses to: (1) Elucidate whether trade-offs in the effect of the apolipoprotein E e4 allele documented in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) are a more general phenomenon, and (2) explore potential mechanisms generating age- and gender-specific trade-offs in the effect of the e4 allele on cancer, diseases of the heart, and neurodegenerative disorders assessed retrospectively in the LLFS populations. The e4 allele can diminish risks of cancer and diseases of the heart and confer risks of diseases of the heart in a sex-, age-, and LLFS-population-specific manner. A protective effect against cancer is seen in older long-living men and, potentially, their sons (>75 years, relative risk [RR]>75=0.48, p=0.086), which resembles our findings in the FHS. The protective effect against diseases of the heart is limited to long-living older men (RR>76=0.50, p=0.016), as well. A detrimental effect against diseases of the heart is characteristic for a normal LLFS population of male spouses and is specific for myocardial infarction (RR=3.07, p=2.1×10(-3)). These trade-offs are likely associated with two inherently different mechanisms, including disease-specific (detrimental; characteristic for a normal male population) and systemic, aging-related (protective; characteristic for older long-living men) mechanisms. The e4 allele confers risks of neurological disorders in men and women (RR=1.98, p=0.046). The results highlight the complex role of the e4 allele in genetic susceptibility to health span.

This study focuses on the participants of the Long Life Family Study to elucidate whether biogenetic mechanisms underlying relationships among heritable complex phenotypes in parents function in the same way for the same phenotypes in their children. Our results reveal 3 characteristic groups of relationships among phenotypes in parents and children. One group composed of 3 pairs of phenotypes confirms that associations among some phenotypes can be explained by the same biogenetic mechanisms working in parents and children. Two other groups including 9 phenotype pairs show that this is not a common rule. Our findings suggest that biogenetic mechanisms underlying relationships among different phenotypes, even if they are causally related, can function differently in successive generations or in different age groups of biologically related individuals. The results suggest that the role of aging-related processes in changing environment may be conceptually underestimated in current genetic association studies using genome wide resources.

We used an approach of cumulative deficits to evaluate the rate of aging in 4954 participants of the Long-Life Family Study (LLFS) recruited in the U.S. (Boston, New York, and Pittsburgh) and Denmark. We used an array of 85 health-related deficits covering major health dimensions including depression, cognition, morbidity, physical performance, and disability to construct several deficit indices (DIs) with overlapping and complementary sets of deficits to test robustness of the estimates. Our study shows that the DIs robustly characterize accelerated rates of aging irrespective of specific of deficits. When a wider spectrum of health dimensions is considered these rates are better approximated by quadratic law. Exponential rates are more characteristic for more severe health dimensions. The aging rates are the same for males and females. Individuals who contracted major diseases and those who were free of them exhibited the same aging rates as characterized by the DI constructed using mild deficits. Unlike health, disability can qualitatively alter the aging patterns of the LLFS participants. We report on systemic differences in health among the LLFS centenarians residing in New York and Boston. This study highlights importance of aggregated approaches to better understand systemic mechanisms of health deterioration in long-living individuals., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We analysed relationship between the risk of onset of "unhealthy life" (defined as the onset of cancer, cardiovascular diseases, or diabetes) and longitudinal changes in body mass index, diastolic blood pressure, hematocrit, pulse pressure, pulse rate, and serum cholesterol in the Framingham Heart Study (Original Cohort) using the stochastic process model of human mortality and aging. The analyses demonstrate how decline in resistance to stresses and adaptive capacity accompanying human aging can be evaluated from longitudinal data. We showed how these components of the aging process, as well as deviation of the trajectories of physiological indices from those minimising the risk at respective ages, can lead to an increase in the risk of onset of unhealthy life with age. The results indicate the presence of substantial gender difference in aging related decline in stress resistance and adaptive capacity, which can contribute to differences in the shape of the sex-specific patterns of incidence rates of aging related diseases., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The results of genome-wide association studies of complex traits, such as life span or age at onset of chronic disease, suggest that such traits are typically affected by a large number of small-effect alleles. Individually such alleles have little predictive values, therefore they were usually excluded from further analyses. The results of our study strongly suggest that the alleles with small individual effects on longevity may jointly influence life span so that the resulting influence can be both substantial and significant. We show that this joint influence can be described by a relatively simple "genetic dose - phenotypic response" relationship.

Exceptional survival results from complicated interplay between genetic and environmental factors. The effects of these factors on survival are mediated by the biological and physiological variables, which affect mortality risk. In this paper, we evaluated the role of blood glucose (BG) in exceptional survival using the Framingham heart study data for the main (FHS) and offspring (FHSO) cohorts. We found that: (1) the average cross-sectional age patterns of BG change over time; (2) the values of BG level among the longest lived individuals in this study differ for different sub-cohorts; (3) the longitudinal age patterns of BG differ from those of cross-sectional ones. We investigated mechanisms forming average age trajectories of BG in the FHS cohort. We found that the two curves: one, characterizing the average effects of allostatic adaptation, and another, minimizing mortality risk for any given age, play the central role in this process. We found that the average BG age trajectories for exceptional survivors are closer to the curve minimizing mortality risk than those of individuals having shorter life spans. We concluded that individuals whose age trajectories of BG are located around the curve minimizing chances of premature death at each given age have highest chances of reaching exceptional longevity.

The Gln(27)Glu polymorphism but not the Arg(16)Gly polymorphism of the beta2-adrenergic receptor (ADRB2) gene appears to be associated with a broad range of aging-associated phenotypes, including cancers at different sites, myocardial infarction (MI), intermittent claudication (IC), and overall/healthy longevity in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort. The Gln(27)Gln genotype increases risks of cancer, MI and IC, whereas the Glu(27) allele or, equivalently, the Gly(16)Glu(27) haplotype tends to be protective against these diseases. Genetic associations with longevity are of opposite nature at young-old and oldest-old ages highlighting the phenomenon of antagonistic pleiotropy. The mechanism of antagonistic pleiotropy is associated with an evolutionary-driven advantage of carriers of a derived Gln(27) allele at younger ages and their survival disadvantage at older ages as a result of increased risks of cancer, MI and IC. The ADRB2 gene can play an important systemic role in healthy aging in evolutionary context that warrants exploration in other populations., (Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The levels of blood glucose (BG) in humans tend to increase with age deviating from the norm specified for the young adults. Such elevation is often considered as a factor contributing to an increase in risks of disease and death. The proper use of intervention strategies coping with or preventing consequences of BG elevation requires understanding the roles of external forces and intrinsic senescence in this process. To address these issues, we performed analyses of longitudinal data on BG collected in the Framingham Heart Study using methods of descriptive statistics and statistical modeling. The approach allows us to separate effects of persistent external disturbances from "normal" aging-related changes due to the senescence process. We found that the BG level corresponding to the lowest mortality risk tends to increase with age. The changes in the shape of the mortality risk with age indicate the aging-related decline in resistance to stresses affecting the BG level. The results show that analyzing longitudinal data using advanced methods may substantially increase our knowledge on factors and mechanisms responsible for aging-related changes in humans.

Many longitudinal studies of aging collect genetic information only for a sub-sample of participants of the study. These data also do not include recent findings, new ideas and methodological concepts developed by distinct groups of researchers. The formal statistical analyses of genetic data ignore this additional information and therefore cannot utilize the entire research potential of the data. In this paper, we present a stochastic model for studying such longitudinal data in joint analyses of genetic and non-genetic sub-samples. The model incorporates several major concepts of aging known to date and usually studied independently. These include age-specific physiological norms, allostasis and allostatic load, stochasticity, and decline in stress resistance and adaptive capacity with age. The approach allows for studying all these concepts in their mutual connection, even if respective mechanisms are not directly measured in data (which is typical for longitudinal data available to date). The model takes into account dependence of longitudinal indices and hazard rates on genetic markers and permits evaluation of all these characteristics for carriers of different alleles (genotypes) to address questions concerning genetic influence on aging-related characteristics. The method is based on extracting genetic information from the entire sample of longitudinal data consisting of genetic and non-genetic sub-samples. Thus it results in a substantial increase in the accuracy of statistical estimates of genetic parameters compared to methods that use only information from a genetic sub-sample. Such an increase is achieved without collecting additional genetic data. Simulation studies illustrate the increase in the accuracy in different scenarios for datasets structurally similar to the Framingham Heart Study. Possible applications of the model and its further generalizations are discussed.

The potential gain in life expectancy which could result from the complete elimination of mortality from cancer in the U.S. would not exceed 3 years if one were to consider cancer independently of other causes of death. In this paper, we review evidence of trade-offs between cancer and aging as well as between cancer and other diseases, which, if taken into account, may substantially increase estimates of gain in life expectancy resulting from cancer eradication. We also used the Multiple Causes of Death (MCD) data to evaluate correlations among mortalities from cancer and other major disorders including heart disease, stroke, diabetes, Alzheimer's, Parkinson's diseases, and asthma. Our analyses revealed significant negative correlations between cancer and other diseases suggesting stronger population effects of cancer eradication. Possible mechanisms of the observed dependencies and emerging perspectives of using dependent competing risks models for evaluating the effects of reduction of mortality from cancer on life expectancy are discussed.

An important feature of aging-related deterioration in human health is the decline in organisms' resistance to stresses, which contributes to an increase in morbidity and mortality risks. In human longitudinal studies of aging, such a decline is not measured directly, so indirect methods of statistical modeling have to be used for evaluating this characteristic. Since medical interventions reflect severity of occurring health disorders, data from Medicare service use files can be used for such modeling. In this paper, we use the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) data merged with the Medicare service use files to investigate dynamics of stress resistance in the U.S. elderly. We constructed individual indices of cumulative deficits and medical costs and investigated their separate and joint effects on dynamics of mortality risks using the quadratic hazard model (QHM). We found that males show a faster decline in stress resistance with age than females.

In this chapter we review the epidemiology of hormone-associated cancers (prostate, breast, endometrial, ovarian, pancreatic and thyroid) paying special attention to the variability in the age patterns of cancer incidence rate over populations and time periods. We emphasize the comparative analysis of the age specific incidence rate curves as a valuable source of hypotheses about factors influencing cancer risks in populations in addition to the analysis of the age-adjusted rates.

Cross-sectional analyses show that an index of aging-associated health/well-being deficits, called the "frailty index", can characterize the aging process in humans. This study provides support for such characterization from a longitudinal analysis of the frailty index properties. The data are from the National Long Term Care Survey assessed longitudinally health and functioning of the U.S. elderly in the period 1982-1999. In cross-sectional analysis, the frailty index exhibits accelerated increase with age till oldest-old ages (95+), with possible deceleration thereafter. Longitudinal analysis confirms the accelerated accumulation of deficits in aging individuals. The time-dynamics of the frailty index is affected by two sex-sensitive processes: (i) selection of robust individuals, resulting in a decline of the mean frailty index with age and (ii) accumulation of deficits associated with physiological aging and its interaction with environment, which results in an accelerated increase of individual frailty index prior to death irrespective of chronological age. Current frailty index levels in individuals are more predictive of death than the index past values. Longitudinal analysis provides strong evidence that the cumulative index of health/well-being deficits can characterize aging-associated processes in humans and predict death better than chronological age during short-term periods.

Aging-related changes in a human organism follow dynamic regularities, which contribute to the observed age patterns of incidence and mortality curves. An organism's 'optimal' (normal) physiological state changes with age, affecting the values of risks of disease and death. The resistance to stresses, as well as adaptive capacity, declines with age. An exposure to improper environment results in persisting deviation of individuals' physiological (and biological) indices from their normal state (due to allostatic adaptation), which, in turn, increases chances of disease and death. Despite numerous studies investigating these effects, there is no conceptual framework, which would allow for putting all these findings together, and analyze longitudinal data taking all these dynamic connections into account. In this paper we suggest such a framework, using a new version of stochastic process model of aging and mortality. Using this model, we elaborated a statistical method for analyses of longitudinal data on aging, health and longevity and tested it using different simulated data sets. The results show that the model may characterize complicated interplay among different components of aging-related changes in humans and that the model parameters are identifiable from the data.

The sample size of the data used in genetic studies is often a factor limiting the accuracy of statistical estimates. In this paper we suggest a new approach to evaluation of genetic influence on risk of development of aging-related health disorders. The approach results in substantial improvement of the accuracy of statistical estimates without an increase in the size of the genetic sample. The approach is based on the joint analysis of data from the genetic samples and easily accessible non-genetic data, such as data collected in epidemiological, demographic, and longitudinal studies of human aging and aging-related pathologies.

The deterioration of human health with age is manifested in changes of thousands of physiological and biological variables. The contribution of some of such changes to the mortality risk may be small and cannot be reliably detected by existing statistical methods. A cumulative index of health/well-being disorders, which counts changes in observed variables on the way of losing health, may be an appropriate way to take the effects of such variables into account. In this paper we investigate regularities of the aging-related changes in human health/well-being/survival status described by such an index using the new version of the quadratic hazard model of human aging and mortality. We found that the shape and the location of the mortality risk, considered as a function of the introduced health-related index, changes with age reflecting the decline in stress resistance and the age-dependence of the "optimal" health/well-being status. Comparison of these results with findings from early studies using the Cox's-like model of risk function indicates that the results are likely to describe regularities of deterioration in human health during the aging process.

Objectives: To describe the accumulation of aging-associated health disorders using a cumulative measure known as a frailty index (FI) and to evaluate its ability to differentiate long- and short-life phenotypes as well as the FI's connection to aging-associated processes in older people., Design: Retrospective cross-sectional and longitudinal studies., Setting: The National Long-Term Care Survey (NLTCS) data that assessed health and functioning of U.S. older individuals (> or =65) in 1982, 1984, 1989, 1994, and 1999 were analyzed. The NLTCS sample in each survey represents a mixture of longitudinal and cross-sectional components., Participants: Approximately 5,000 individuals in each survey., Measurements: A cumulative index of health and well-being deficiencies (disabilities, signs, diseases) was calculated as a count of deficits observed in an individual divided by the total number of all considered deficits., Results: Men and women who died before the age of 75 and those who died after the age of 85 exhibited remarkably similar FI frequency patterns despite the 10-year age difference between age profiles in these samples. Long life is consistently characterized in longitudinal analyses by lower FIs. FI dynamics are found to be strongly sex sensitive., Conclusion: The FI appears to be a sensitive age-independent indicator of sex-specific physiological decline in aging individuals and a sex-specific discriminator of survival chances. The FI is a promising characteristic suitable for improving sex-sensitive forecasts of risks of adverse health outcomes in older people.

There is an interesting divergence between the achievements of geriatrics and gerontology. On the one hand, during the last 30 years physicians in many developed countries have successfully prescribed several medicines to cure various symptoms of senescence. On the other hand, the influence of such medicines on human life span practically has not been studied. The most common of the relevant medicines are nootropic piracetam, gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), selegiline, Ginkgo biloba, pentoxifylline, cerebrolysin, solcoseryl, ergoloid, vinpocetin, sertraline, and estrogens, among others. Available data from human clinical practices and experimental animal studies indicate that treatments with these drugs improve learning, memory, brain metabolism, and capacity. Some of these drugs increase tolerance to various stresses such as oxygen deficit and exercise, stimulate the regeneration of neurons in the old brain, and speed up the performance of mental and physical tasks. This means that modern medicine already has "antiaging" treatments at its disposal. However, the influence of such treatments on the mean and maximal life span of humans, and on the age trajectory of a human survival curve has been poorly studied. The increase in human life expectancy at birth in the second half of the last century was mostly caused by the better survival at the old and oldest old rather than at the young ages. In parallel, the consumption of brain protective and regenerative drugs has been expanding in the elderly population. We provide evidence in support of the idea that the consumption of medicines exerting antiaging properties may contribute to the increase in human longevity.

Many researchers working in the area of aging and longevity base their conclusions on the behavior of empirical age trajectories of mortality rates. In such analyses, changes in the slope of the logarithm of the mortality curve are often associated with changes in the rate of individual aging. We show that such interpretation may be incorrect: the changes in the slope of this curve do not necessarily correspond to the changes in the rate of individual aging. We use three models of mortality and aging to illustrate this statement. The first one is based on the idea of frailty. We show that changes in frailty distribution alone may be responsible for changes in the slope. The second model exploits the idea of saving lives. It evaluates changes in mortality rate after elimination of lethal stressful events. The third model uses the idea of Strehler and Mildvan (1960). It shows that changes in the rate of individual aging may take place without changes in the slope of the logarithm of the mortality curve.

Background: Better physical robustness and resilience of long-lived siblings compared to sporadic long-livers has been demonstrated in several studies. However, it is unknown whether long-lived siblings also end their lives better. Objective: To investigate end-of-life (EoL) events (dementia diagnosis, medication, hospitalizations in the last 5 years of life), causes of death, and location of death in long-lived siblings compared to matched sporadic long-livers from the Danish population. Methods: Long-lived siblings were identified through three nationwide Danish studies in which the inclusion criteria varied, but 99.5% of the families had at least two siblings surviving to age 90 +. Those who died between 2006 and 2018 were included, and randomly matched with sex, year-of-birth and age-at-death controls (i.e., sporadic long-lived controls) from the Danish population. Results: A total of 5,262 long-lived individuals were included (1,754 long-lived siblings, 3,508 controls; 63% women; median age at death 96.1). Long-lived siblings had a significantly lower risk of being diagnosed with dementia in the last years of life (p = 0.027). There was no significant difference regarding the number of prescribed drugs, hospital stays, days in hospital, and location of death. Compared to controls, long-lived siblings presented a lower risk of dying from dementia (p = 0.020) and ill-defined conditions (p = 0.030). Conclusions: In many aspects long-lived siblings end their lives similar to sporadic long-livers, with the important exception of lower dementia risk during the last 5 years of life. These results suggest that long-lived siblings are excellent candidates for identifying environmental and genetic protective factors of dementia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dysregulation of physiological processes may contribute to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) development. We previously found that an increase in the level of physiological dysregulation (PD) in the aging body is associated with declining resilience and robustness to major diseases. Also, our genome-wide association study found that genes associated with the age-related increase in PD frequently represented pathways implicated in axon guidance and synaptic function, which in turn were linked to AD and related traits (e.g., amyloid, tau, neurodegeneration) in the literature. Here, we tested the hypothesis that genes involved in PD and axon guidance/synapse function may jointly influence onset of AD. We assessed the impact of interactions between SNPs in such genes on AD onset in the Long Life Family Study and sought to replicate the findings in the Health and Retirement Study. We found significant interactions between SNPs in the UNC5C and CNTN6, and PLXNA4 and EPHB2 genes that influenced AD onset in both datasets. Associations with individual SNPs were not statistically significant. Our findings, thus, support a major role of genetic interactions in the heterogeneity of AD and suggest the joint contribution of genes involved in PD and axon guidance/synapse function (essential for the maintenance of complex neural networks) to AD development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Age-related phenotypes are characterized by genetic heterogeneity attributed to an uncertain role of evolution in establishing their molecular mechanisms. Here, we performed univariate and pleiotropic meta-analyses of 24 age-related phenotypes dealing with such evolutionary uncertainty and leveraging longitudinal information. Our analysis identified 237 novel single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 199 loci with phenotype-specific (61 SNPs) and pleiotropic (176 SNPs) associations and replicated associations for 160 SNPs in 68 loci in a modest sample of 26,371 individuals from five longitudinal studies. Most pleiotropic associations (65.3%, 115 of 176 SNPs) were impacted by heterogeneity, with the natural-selection—free genetic heterogeneity as its inevitable component. This pleiotropic heterogeneity was dominated (93%, 107 of 115 SNPs) by antagonistic genetic heterogeneity, a phenomenon that is characterized by antagonistic directions of genetic effects for directly correlated phenotypes. Genetic association studies of age-related phenotypes addressing the evolutionary uncertainty in establishing their molecular mechanisms have power to substantially improve the efficiency of the analyses. A dominant form of heterogeneous pleiotropy, antagonistic genetic heterogeneity, provides unprecedented insight into the genetic origin of age-related phenotypes and side effects in medical care that is counter-intuitive in medical genetics but naturally expected when molecular mechanisms of age-related phenotypes are not due to direct evolutionary selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditionally, genomewide association studies ( GWAS) have emphasized the benefits of large samples in the analyses of age-related traits rather than their specific properties. We adopted a realistic concept of genetic susceptibility to inherently heterogeneous, age-related traits driven by the elusive role of evolution in their properties. We analyzed in detail the associations of rs693 and rs562338 polymorphisms representing the Apolipoprotein B locus with endophenotypes (total cholesterol [ TC] and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and phenotypes (myocardial infarction [ MI] and survival) in four large-scale studies, which include 20 748 individuals with 2357 MI events. We showed that a strong, robust predisposition of rs693 and rs562338 to TC (β = 0.72, P = 7.7 × 10−30 for rs693 and β = −1.08, P = 9.8 × 10−42 for rs562338) is not translated into a predisposition to MI and survival. The rs693_A allele influences risks of MI and mortality after MI additively with lipids. This allele shows antagonistic effects-protecting against MI risks (β = −0.18, P = 1.1 × 10−5) or increasing MI risks (β = 0.15, P = 2.8 × 10−3) and mortality after MI, in different populations. Paradoxically, increased TC concentrations can be protective against MI for the rs693_A allele carriers. Our results uncouple the influences of the same alleles on endophenotypes and phenotypes despite potential causal relationships among the latter. Our strategy reveals virtually genomewide significance for the associations of rs693 with MI ( P = 5.5 × 10−8) that is contrasted with a weak estimate following the traditional, sample-size-centered GWAS strategy ( P = 0.16) in the same sample. These results caution against the use of the traditional GWAS strategy for gaining profound insights into genetic predisposition to healthspan and lifespan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inherent complexity of aging-related traits can temper progress in unraveling the genetic origins of healthspan. We focus on two generations in the Framingham Heart Study, the original ( FHS) and offspring ( FHSO) cohorts, to determine whether aging-related processes in changing environments can substantially impact the role of lipid-related genes discovered in candidate gene (the apolipoprotein E ( APOE) e2/3/4 polymorphism) and genome-wide (the APOB rs1042034 (C/T)) studies, in regulation of total cholesterol ( TC) and onset of cardiovascular disease ( CVD). We demonstrate that the APOE e4 allele and APOB CC genotype can play detrimental, neutral, and protective sex-specific roles in the etiology of CVD at different ages and in different environments. We document antagonistic roles for the e4 allele in the onset of CVD characterized by detrimental effects at younger ages ( RR≤ 75 years = 1.49, P = 7.5 × 10−4) and protective effects at older ages ( RR76+years = 0.77, P = 0.044) for FHS participants. We found that disregarding the role of aging erroneously nullifies the significant effects of the e4 allele in this sample ( RR = 0.92, P = 0.387). The leading biogenetic pathways mediating genetic effects on CVD may be more relevant to lipid metabolism for APOB than APOE. Aging-related processes can modulate the strength of genetic associations with TC in the same individuals at different chronological ages. We found substantial differences in the effects of the same APOE and APOB alleles on CVD and TC across generations. The results suggest that aging-related processes in changing environments may play key roles in the genetics of healthspan. Detailed systemic integrative analyses may substantially advance the progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether mean leukocyte telomere length (LTL) serves as a biomarker of disability assessed according to activities of daily living (ADLs) and what factors may modify this relationship. DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study. SETTING: A subset of the National Long Term Care Survey (NTLCS), a Medicare-based U.S. population longitudinal study focused on trends of overall health and functional status in older adults. PARTICIPANTS: Six hundred and twenty-four individuals from the 1999 wave of the NTLCS cohort. MEASUREMENTS: Relative LTL determined according to quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LTL has previously been shown to correlate with common age-related disorders and mortality, as well as with socioeconomic status. RESULTS: A sex difference in LTL was observed but not age-dependent shortening or association with socioeconomic status. LTL was associated with disability and functional status assessed according to ADLs. The association between ADLs and LTL was stronger in subjects without diabetes mellitus, whereas associations were not seen when only subjects with diabetes mellitus were analyzed. Associations between LTL and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer were also present in the group without diabetes mellitus but not in the group with diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: These findings support the concept that LTL is a biomarker of overall well-being that is predictive of disability of older individuals in the U.S. population. Diabetes mellitus plays an important role as a modifier of the association between LTL and disability, CVD, and cancer. These associations have clinical implications because of the potential predictive value of LTL and deserve further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aging studies can be facilitated by refocusing from longevity phenotypes to their proxies (intermediate phenotypes). Robust selection of the intermediate phenotypes requires data on such phenotypes and life span measured in the same individuals, which is not always the case in aging studies. A promising approach is to select intermediate phenotypes using information on longevity measured in related individuals. We evaluated feasibility of this approach focusing on 32 geriatric diseases as potential intermediate phenotypes of longevity assessed in the Longitudinal Study of Aging Danish Twins. Our analyses reveal that geriatric diseases measured in some family members can predict life span in the other family members both individually and cumulatively ensuring that this approach for selection of intermediate phenotypes is feasible. The cumulative-trait approach is more promising for such studies compared with the individual-trait approach. Heritable health dimensions contributing to a decrease of life span have sex-insensitive and sex-specific components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Variables measured in longitudinal studies of aging and longevity do not exhaust the list of all factors affecting health and mortality transitions. Unobserved factors generate hidden variability in susceptibility to diseases and death in populations and in age trajectories of longitudinally measured indices. Effects of such heterogeneity can be manifested not only in observed hazard rates but also in average trajectories of measured indices. Although effects of hidden heterogeneity on observed mortality rates are widely discussed, their role in forming age patterns of other aging-related characteristics (average trajectories of physiological state, stress resistance, etc.) is less clear. We propose a model of hidden heterogeneity to analyze its effects in longitudinal data. The approach takes the presence of hidden heterogeneity into account and incorporates several major concepts currently developing in aging research (allostatic load, aging-associated decline in adaptive capacity and stress-resistance, age-dependent physiological norms). Simulation experiments confirm identifiability of model''s parameters. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The TOMM40‐APOE variants are known for their strong, antagonistic associations with Alzheimer's disease and body weight. While a stronger role of the APOE than TOMM40 variants in Alzheimer's disease was suggested, comparative contribution of the TOMM40‐APOE variants in the regulation of body weight remains elusive. We examined additive effects of rs2075650 and rs157580 TOMM40 variants and rs429358 and rs7412 APOE variants coding the ε2/ε3/ε4 polymorphism on body mass index (BMI) in age‐aggregated and age‐stratified cohort‐specific and cohort‐pooled analysis of 27,863 Caucasians aged 20–100 years from seven longitudinal studies. Minor alleles of rs2075650, rs429358, and rs7412 were individually associated with BMI (β = −1.29, p = 3.97 × 10−9; β = −1.38, p = 2.78 × 10−10; and β = 0.58, p = 3.04 × 10−2, respectively). Conditional analysis with rs2075650 and rs429358 identified independent BMI‐lowering associations for minor alleles (β = −0.63, p = 3.99 × 10−2 and β = −0.94, p = 2.17 × 10−3, respectively). Polygenic mega‐analysis identified additive effects of the rs2075650 and rs429358 heterozygotes (β = −1.68, p = 3.00 × 10−9), and the strongest BMI‐lowering association for the rs2075650 heterozygous and rs429358 minor allele homozygous carriers (β = −4.11, p = 2.78 × 10−3). Conditional analysis with four polymorphisms identified independent BMI‐lowering (rs2075650, rs157580, and rs429358) and BMI‐increasing (rs7412) associations of heterozygous genotypes with BMI. Age‐stratified conditional analysis revealed well‐powered support for a differential and independent association of the rs429358 heterozygote with BMI in younger and older individuals, β = 0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) = −1.18, 2.35, p = 5.18 × 10−1 for 3,068 individuals aged ≤30 years and β = −4.28, CI = −5.65, −2.92, p = 7.71 × 10−10 for 6,052 individuals aged >80 years. TOMM40 and APOE variants are independently and additively associated with BMI. The APOE ε4‐coding rs429358 polymorphism is associated with BMI in older individuals but not in younger individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Recent studies suggest that downregulation of tumor suppressor genes might not only favor cancer development but also postpone organisms’ aging and increase longevity. However, there is lack of population-based studies directly supporting this idea. We studied the lgl lethal alleles which are widespread in natural Drosophila populations. We demonstrate, for the first time, that animals heterozygous on the loss-of-function lgl tumor suppressor gene display a clear pre-adult viability advantage under stressful conditions (high 29°C and low 16°C temperatures). We found also the survival and longevity advantage effect of the lgl loss-of-function in the temperature stress conditions. The main features of this longevity influence are following. First, the lgl-dependent life span increase is sex-dependent; in all experimental combinations males are more sensitive than females of relevant genotypes. Second, the effect is stronger under the life-shortening temperature stress, 29°C, where the hormesis was demonstrated. Third, the favoring effect of reduced dosage of tumor suppressor displays clearly in old but not young animals, delaying aging. Forth, the maternal or epigenetic inheritance of thermotolerance from mother to offspring appears to strengthen the observed longevity effects. One possible explanation of this stress-adaptive effect of reduced tumor suppressor dose might be a better resistance of Drosophila post-mitotic cells to a stress-associated apoptosis at old ages. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]