1. Clinical predictors of vertebral osteoporotic fractures in post-menopausal women: a cross-sectional analysis
- Author
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Luigi Aurelio NASTO, Fusco, A., Colangelo, D., Mormando, M., Di Giacomo, G., Rossi, B., Marinis, L., Logroscino, C. A., Pola, E., Nasto, La, Fusco, A, Colangelo, D, Mormando, M, Di Giacomo, G, Rossi, B, De Marinis, L, Logroscino, Ca, and Pola, E
- Subjects
Aged, 80 and over ,Postmenopause ,Cross-Sectional Studies ,Logistic Models ,Bone Density ,Humans ,Spinal Fractures ,Female ,Middle Aged ,Osteoporotic Fractures ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies - Abstract
BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis is a very common bone disorder and accounts for 1.4 million vertebral compression fractures (VCFs) per year, mostly in post-menopausal women. AIM: The aim of this study was to develop a risk scoring system to identify and gauge the risk of osteoporotic VCFs in post-menopausal women.Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study on 477 post-menopausal women consecutively visited at our institution. We studied 15 different clinical variables, i.e. age, body mass index (BMI), weight, L1-L4 lumbar T-Score, L1-L4 lumbar Z-Score, L1-L4 lumbar bone mineral density (BMD), femoral neck T-Score, femoral neck Z-Score, femoral neck BMD, smoking habit, alcohol consumption, 25-OH-vitamin D, total alkaline phosphatase, bone alkaline phosphatase, and L4 vertebral volume. Study population was split in a derivation and a validation cohort. A logistic regression model was used to develop a predictive score of osteoporotic VCFs in the derivation cohort, finally the performance of the score was tested in the validation cohort. RESULTS: Age, L1-L4 lumbar T-Score, femoral neck T-Score, L4 vertebral volume, and smoking habit were found to be predictors of VCFs. To each variable a score from 0 to +12 was assigned to the magnitude of regression coefficient. A score ≥ 22 identified VCFs with a sensitivity of 87%/89% and a specificity of 87%/90% in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that a simple score derived from clinical history and routine diagnostic workout can be usefully employed to gauge the risk of fragility VCFs in post-menopausal women.
- Published
- 2012