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BackgroundSurgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction.MethodsThis international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index 60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04384926.FindingsOf eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16-30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77-0·84; p

Genetic models for cancer have been evaluated using almost exclusively European data, which could exacerbate health disparities. A polygenic hazard score (PHS1) is associated with age at prostate cancer diagnosis and improves screening accuracy in Europeans. Here, we evaluate performance of PHS2 (PHS1, adapted for OncoArray) in a multi-ethnic dataset of 80,491 men (49,916 cases, 30,575 controls). PHS2 is associated with age at diagnosis of any and aggressive (Gleason score ≥ 7, stage T3-T4, PSA ≥ 10 ng/mL, or nodal/distant metastasis) cancer and prostate-cancer-specific death. Associations with cancer are significant within European (n = 71,856), Asian (n = 2,382), and African (n = 6,253) genetic ancestries (p

BackgroundSurgical services are preparing to scale up in areas affected by COVID-19. This study aimed to evaluate the association between preoperative SARS-CoV-2 testing and postoperative pulmonary complications in patients undergoing elective cancer surgery.MethodsThis international cohort study included adult patients undergoing elective surgery for cancer in areas affected by SARS-CoV-2 up to 19 April 2020. Patients suspected of SARS-CoV-2 infection before operation were excluded. The primary outcome measure was postoperative pulmonary complications at 30 days after surgery. Preoperative testing strategies were adjusted for confounding using mixed-effects models.ResultsOf 8784 patients (432 hospitals, 53 countries), 2303 patients (26.2 per cent) underwent preoperative testing: 1458 (16.6 per cent) had a swab test, 521 (5.9 per cent) CT only, and 324 (3.7 per cent) swab and CT. Pulmonary complications occurred in 3.9 per cent, whereas SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed in 2.6 per cent. After risk adjustment, having at least one negative preoperative nasopharyngeal swab test (adjusted odds ratio 0.68, 95 per cent confidence interval 0.68 to 0.98; P = 0.040) was associated with a lower rate of pulmonary complications. Swab testing was beneficial before major surgery and in areas with a high 14-day SARS-CoV-2 case notification rate, but not before minor surgery or in low-risk areas. To prevent one pulmonary complication, the number needed to swab test before major or minor surgery was 18 and 48 respectively in high-risk areas, and 73 and 387 in low-risk areas.ConclusionPreoperative nasopharyngeal swab testing was beneficial before major surgery and in high SARS-CoV-2 risk areas. There was no proven benefit of swab testing before minor surgery in low-risk areas.

PurposeAs cancer surgery restarts after the first COVID-19 wave, health care providers urgently require data to determine where elective surgery is best performed. This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19-free surgical pathways were associated with lower postoperative pulmonary complication rates compared with hospitals with no defined pathway.Patients and methodsThis international, multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent elective surgery for 10 solid cancer types without preoperative suspicion of SARS-CoV-2. Participating hospitals included patients from local emergence of SARS-CoV-2 until April 19, 2020. At the time of surgery, hospitals were defined as having a COVID-19-free surgical pathway (complete segregation of the operating theater, critical care, and inpatient ward areas) or no defined pathway (incomplete or no segregation, areas shared with patients with COVID-19). The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications (pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, unexpected ventilation).ResultsOf 9,171 patients from 447 hospitals in 55 countries, 2,481 were operated on in COVID-19-free surgical pathways. Patients who underwent surgery within COVID-19-free surgical pathways were younger with fewer comorbidities than those in hospitals with no defined pathway but with similar proportions of major surgery. After adjustment, pulmonary complication rates were lower with COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.2% v 4.9%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.86). This was consistent in sensitivity analyses for low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists grade 1/2), propensity score-matched models, and patients with negative SARS-CoV-2 preoperative tests. The postoperative SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was also lower in COVID-19-free surgical pathways (2.1% v 3.6%; aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.76).ConclusionWithin available resources, dedicated COVID-19-free surgical pathways should be established to provide safe elective cancer surgery during current and before future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.

Handedness has been extensively studied because of its relationship with language and the over-representation of left-handers in some neurodevelopmental disorders. Using data from the UK Biobank, 23andMe and the International Handedness Consortium, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of handedness (N = 1,766,671). We found 41 loci associated (P

BackgroundA polygenic hazard score (PHS), the weighted sum of 54 SNP genotypes, was previously validated for association with clinically significant prostate cancer and for improved prostate cancer screening accuracy. Here, we assess the potential impact of PHS-informed screening.MethodsUnited Kingdom population incidence data (Cancer Research United Kingdom) and data from the Cluster Randomized Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer were combined to estimate age-specific clinically significant prostate cancer incidence (Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA ≥10, or nodal/distant metastases). Using HRs estimated from the ProtecT prostate cancer trial, age-specific incidence rates were calculated for various PHS risk percentiles. Risk-equivalent age, when someone with a given PHS percentile has prostate cancer risk equivalent to an average 50-year-old man (50-year-standard risk), was derived from PHS and incidence data. Positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer was calculated using PHS-adjusted age groups.ResultsThe expected age at diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer differs by 19 years between the 1st and 99th PHS percentiles: men with PHS in the 1st and 99th percentiles reach the 50-year-standard risk level at ages 60 and 41, respectively. PPV of PSA was higher for men with higher PHS-adjusted age.ConclusionsPHS provides individualized estimates of risk-equivalent age for clinically significant prostate cancer. Screening initiation could be adjusted by a man's PHS.ImpactPersonalized genetic risk assessments could inform prostate cancer screening decisions.

BackgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) is frequently accompanied by thyroid hormone dysfunction. It is currently unclear whether these alterations are the cause or consequence of CKD. This study aimed at studying the effect of thyroid hormone alterations on renal function in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses in individuals from all adult age groups.MethodsIndividual participant data (IPD) from 16 independent cohorts having measured thyroid stimulating hormone, free thyroxine levels and creatinine levels were included. Thyroid hormone status was defined using clinical cut-off values. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were calculated by means of the four-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula. For this IPD meta-analysis, eGFR at baseline and eGFR change during follow-up were computed by fitting linear regression models and linear mixed models in each cohort separately. Effect estimates were pooled using random effects models.ResultsA total of 72 856 individuals from 16 different cohorts were included. At baseline, individuals with overt hypothyroidism (n = 704) and subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 3356) had a average (95% confidence interval) -4.07 (-6.37 to -1.78) and -2.40 (-3.78 to -1.02) mL/min/1.73 m2 lower eGFR as compared with euthyroid subjects (n = 66 542). In (subclinical) hyperthyroid subjects (n = 2254), average eGFR was 3.01 (1.50-4.52) mL/min/1.73 m2 higher. During 329 713 patient years of follow-up, eGFR did not decline more rapidly in individuals with low thyroid function compared with individuals with normal thyroid function.ConclusionsLow thyroid function is not associated with a deterioration of renal function. The cross-sectional association may be explained by renal dysfunction causing thyroid hormone alterations.

BACKGROUND: Lean body mass (LM) plays an important role in mobility and metabolic function. We previously identified five loci associated with LM adjusted for fat mass in kilograms. Such an adjustment may reduce the power to identify genetic signals having an association with both lean mass and fat mass. OBJECTIVES: To determine the impact of different fat mass adjustments on genetic architecture of LM and identify additional LM loci. METHODS: We performed genome-wide association analyses for whole-body LM (20 cohorts of European ancestry with n = 38,292) measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry) or bioelectrical impedance analysis, adjusted for sex, age, age2, and height with or without fat mass adjustments (Model 1 no fat adjustment; Model 2 adjustment for fat mass as a percentage of body mass; Model 3 adjustment for fat mass in kilograms). RESULTS: Seven single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in separate loci, including one novel LM locus (TNRC6B), were successfully replicated in an additional 47,227 individuals from 29 cohorts. Based on the strengths of the associations in Model 1 vs Model 3, we divided the LM loci into those with an effect on both lean mass and fat mass in the same direction and refer to those as sumo wrestler loci (FTO and MC4R). In contrast, loci with an impact specifically on LM were termed body builder loci (VCAN and ADAMTSL3). Using existing available genome-wide association study databases, LM increasing alleles of SNPs in sumo wrestler loci were associated with an adverse metabolic profile, whereas LM increasing alleles of SNPs in body builder loci were associated with metabolic protection. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, we identified one novel LM locus (TNRC6B). Our results suggest that a genetically determined increase in lean mass might exert either harmful or protective effects on metabolic traits, depending on its relation to fat mass.

Elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) is an important risk factor for glaucoma. Mechanisms involved in its homeostasis are not well understood, but associations between metabolic factors and IOP have been reported. To investigate the relationship between levels of circulating metabolites and IOP, we performed a metabolome-wide association using a machine learning algorithm, and then employing Mendelian Randomization models to further explore the strength and directionality of effect of the metabolites on IOP. We show that O-methylascorbate, a circulating Vitamin C metabolite, has a significant IOP-lowering effect, consistent with previous knowledge of the anti-hypertensive and anti-oxidative role of ascorbate compounds. These results enhance understanding of IOP control and may potentially benefit future IOP treatment and reduce vision loss from glaucoma.

BackgroundPlasma apolipoprotein C-III (apoC-III) levels are associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) risk.ObjectiveTo assess whether lipoprotein-associated apoC-III levels predict risk of CAD events.MethodsapoC-III associated with apoB, apoAI, and Lp(a) (apoCIII-apoB, apoCIII-apoAI, and apoCIII-Lp(a), respectively) were measured using high-throughput chemiluminescent enzyme-linked immunoassays in 2711 subjects (1879 controls and 832 cases with CAD) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk prospective population study with 7.4 years of follow-up. These measures were correlated with a variety of lipid measurements and the presence of CAD. The indices of "total apoCIII-apoB" and "total apoCIII-apoAI" were derived by multiplying plasma apoB and apoAI, respectively.ResultsapoCIII-apoB (P = .001), apoCIII-Lp(a) (P

The incidence of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) increases with age and mortality exceeds 90% when diagnosed after age 65. Most cases arise without any detectable early symptoms and patients usually present with the acute complications of bone marrow failure1. The onset of such de novo AML cases is typically preceded by the accumulation of somatic mutations in preleukaemic haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) that undergo clonal expansion2,3. However, recurrent AML mutations also accumulate in HSPCs during ageing of healthy individuals who do not develop AML, a phenomenon referred to as age-related clonal haematopoiesis (ARCH)4-8. Here we use deep sequencing to analyse genes that are recurrently mutated in AML to distinguish between individuals who have a high risk of developing AML and those with benign ARCH. We analysed peripheral blood cells from 95 individuals that were obtained on average 6.3 years before AML diagnosis (pre-AML group), together with 414 unselected age- and gender-matched individuals (control group). Pre-AML cases were distinct from controls and had more mutations per sample, higher variant allele frequencies, indicating greater clonal expansion, and showed enrichment of mutations in specific genes. Genetic parameters were used to derive a model that accurately predicted AML-free survival; this model was validated in an independent cohort of 29 pre-AML cases and 262 controls. Because AML is rare, we also developed an AML predictive model using a large electronic health record database that identified individuals at greater risk. Collectively our findings provide proof-of-concept that it is possible to discriminate ARCH from pre-AML many years before malignant transformation. This could in future enable earlier detection and monitoring, and may help to inform intervention.

ObjectivesTo develop and validate a genetic tool to predict age of onset of aggressive prostate cancer (PCa) and to guide decisions of who to screen and at what age.DesignAnalysis of genotype, PCa status, and age to select single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with diagnosis. These polymorphisms were incorporated into a survival analysis to estimate their effects on age at diagnosis of aggressive PCa (that is, not eligible for surveillance according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines; any of Gleason score ≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA (prostate specific antigen) concentration ≥10 ng/L, nodal metastasis, distant metastasis). The resulting polygenic hazard score is an assessment of individual genetic risk. The final model was applied to an independent dataset containing genotype and PSA screening data. The hazard score was calculated for these men to test prediction of survival free from PCa.SettingMultiple institutions that were members of international PRACTICAL consortium.ParticipantsAll consortium participants of European ancestry with known age, PCa status, and quality assured custom (iCOGS) array genotype data. The development dataset comprised 31 747 men; the validation dataset comprised 6411 men.Main outcome measuresPrediction with hazard score of age of onset of aggressive cancer in validation set.ResultsIn the independent validation set, the hazard score calculated from 54 single nucleotide polymorphisms was a highly significant predictor of age at diagnosis of aggressive cancer (z=11.2, P98th centile) were compared with those with average scores (30th-70th centile), the hazard ratio for aggressive cancer was 2.9 (95% confidence interval 2.4 to 3.4). Inclusion of family history in a combined model did not improve prediction of onset of aggressive PCa (P=0.59), and polygenic hazard score performance remained high when family history was accounted for. Additionally, the positive predictive value of PSA screening for aggressive PCa was increased with increasing polygenic hazard score.ConclusionsPolygenic hazard scores can be used for personalised genetic risk estimates that can predict for age at onset of aggressive PCa.

BackgroundN-glycolylneuraminic acid (Neu5Gc) is a non-human red-meat-derived sialic acid immunogenic to humans. Neu5Gc can be metabolically incorporated into glycan chains on human endothelial and epithelial surfaces. This represents the first example of a "xeno-autoantigen", against which circulating human "xeno-autoantibodies" can react. The resulting inflammation ("xenosialitis") has been demonstrated in human-like Neu5Gc-deficient mice and contributed to carcinoma progression via antibody-mediated inflammation. Anti-Neu5Gc antibodies have potential as biomarkers for diseases associated with red meat consumption such as carcinomas, atherosclerosis, and type 2 diabetes.MethodsELISA assays measured antibodies against Neu5Gc or Neu5Gc-glycans in plasma or serum samples from the Nurses' Health Studies, the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, including inter-assay reproducibility, stability with delayed sample processing, and within-person reproducibility over 1-3 years in archived samples. We also assessed associations between antibody levels and coronary artery disease risk (CAD) or red meat intake. A glycan microarray was used to detected antibodies against multiple Neu5Gc-glycan epitopes. A nested case-control study design assessed the association between total anti-Neu5Gc antibodies detected in the glycan array assay and the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC).ResultsELISA assays showed a wide range of anti-Neu5Gc responses and good inter-assay reproducibility, stability with delayed sample processing, and within-person reproducibility over time, but these antibody levels did not correlate with CAD risk or red meat intake. Antibodies against Neu5Gc alone or against individual Neu5Gc-bearing epitopes were also not associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. However, a sialoglycan microarray study demonstrated positive association with CRC risk when the total antibody responses against all Neu5Gc-glycans were combined. Individuals in the top quartile of total anti-Neu5Gc IgG antibody concentrations had nearly three times the risk compared to those in the bottom quartile (Multivariate Odds Ratio comparing top to bottom quartile: 2.98, 95% CI: 0.80, 11.1; P for trend = 0.02).ConclusionsFurther work harnessing the utility of these anti-Neu5Gc antibodies as biomarkers in red meat-associated diseases must consider diversity in individual antibody profiles against different Neu5Gc-bearing glycans. Traditional ELISA assays for antibodies directed against Neu5Gc alone, or against specific Neu5Gc-glycans may not be adequate to define risk associations. Our finding of a positive association of total anti-Neu5Gc antibodies with CRC risk also warrants confirmation in larger prospective studies.

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is a highly prevalent disorder leading to heart failure, stroke, and death. Enhanced understanding of modifiable risk factors may yield opportunities for prevention. The risk of AF is increased in subclinical hyperthyroidism, but it is uncertain whether variations in thyroid function within the normal range or subclinical hypothyroidism are also associated with AF.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and obtained individual participant data from prospective cohort studies that measured thyroid function at baseline and assessed incident AF. Studies were identified from MEDLINE and EMBASE databases from inception to July 27, 2016. The euthyroid state was defined as thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) 0.45 to 4.49 mIU/L, and subclinical hypothyroidism as TSH 4.5 to 19.9 mIU/L with free thyroxine (fT4) levels within reference range. The association of TSH levels in the euthyroid and subclinical hypothyroid range with incident AF was examined by using Cox proportional hazards models. In euthyroid participants, we additionally examined the association between fT4 levels and incident AF.ResultsOf 30 085 participants from 11 cohorts (278 955 person-years of follow-up), 1958 (6.5%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 2574 individuals (8.6%) developed AF during follow-up. TSH at baseline was not significantly associated with incident AF in euthyroid participants or those with subclinical hypothyroidism. Higher fT4 levels at baseline in euthyroid individuals were associated with increased AF risk in age- and sex-adjusted analyses (hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.66, for the highest quartile versus the lowest quartile of fT4; P for trend ≤0.001 across quartiles). Estimates did not substantially differ after further adjustment for preexisting cardiovascular disease.ConclusionsIn euthyroid individuals, higher circulating fT4 levels, but not TSH levels, are associated with increased risk of incident AF.

Hand grip strength is a widely used proxy of muscular fitness, a marker of frailty, and predictor of a range of morbidities and all-cause mortality. To investigate the genetic determinants of variation in grip strength, we perform a large-scale genetic discovery analysis in a combined sample of 195,180 individuals and identify 16 loci associated with grip strength (P

PurposeVarious food patterns have been associated with weight change in adults, but it is unknown which combinations of nutrients may account for such observations. We investigated associations between main nutrient patterns and prospective weight change in adults.MethodsThis study includes 235,880 participants, 25-70 years old, recruited between 1992 and 2000 in 10 European countries. Intakes of 23 nutrients were estimated from country-specific validated dietary questionnaires using the harmonized EPIC Nutrient DataBase. Four nutrient patterns, explaining 67 % of the total variance of nutrient intakes, were previously identified from principal component analysis. Body weight was measured at recruitment and self-reported 5 years later. The relationship between nutrient patterns and annual weight change was examined separately for men and women using linear mixed models with random effect according to center controlling for confounders.ResultsMean weight gain was 460 g/year (SD 950) and 420 g/year (SD 940) for men and women, respectively. The annual differences in weight gain per one SD increase in the pattern scores were as follows: principal component (PC) 1, characterized by nutrients from plant food sources, was inversely associated with weight gain in men (-22 g/year; 95 % CI -33 to -10) and women (-18 g/year; 95 % CI -26 to -11). In contrast, PC4, characterized by protein, vitamin B2, phosphorus, and calcium, was associated with a weight gain of +41 g/year (95 % CI +2 to +80) and +88 g/year (95 % CI +36 to +140) in men and women, respectively. Associations with PC2, a pattern driven by many micro-nutrients, and with PC3, a pattern driven by vitamin D, were less consistent and/or non-significant.ConclusionsWe identified two main nutrient patterns that are associated with moderate but significant long-term differences in weight gain in adults.

Background/objectivesPolyphenols are plant secondary metabolites with a large variability in their chemical structure and dietary occurrence that have been associated with some protective effects against several chronic diseases. To date, limited data exist on intake of polyphenols in populations. The current cross-sectional analysis aimed at estimating dietary intakes of all currently known individual polyphenols and total intake per class and subclass, and to identify their main food sources in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort.MethodsDietary data at baseline were collected using a standardized 24-h dietary recall software administered to 36,037 adult subjects. Dietary data were linked with Phenol-Explorer, a database with data on 502 individual polyphenols in 452 foods and data on polyphenol losses due to cooking and food processing.ResultsMean total polyphenol intake was the highest in Aarhus-Denmark (1786 mg/day in men and 1626 mg/day in women) and the lowest in Greece (744 mg/day in men and 584 mg/day in women). When dividing the subjects into three regions, the highest intake of total polyphenols was observed in the UK health-conscious group, followed by non-Mediterranean (non-MED) and MED countries. The main polyphenol contributors were phenolic acids (52.5-56.9 %), except in men from MED countries and in the UK health-conscious group where they were flavonoids (49.1-61.7 %). Coffee, tea, and fruits were the most important food sources of total polyphenols. A total of 437 different individual polyphenols were consumed, including 94 consumed at a level >1 mg/day. The most abundant ones were the caffeoylquinic acids and the proanthocyanidin oligomers and polymers.ConclusionThis study describes the large number of dietary individual polyphenols consumed and the high variability of their intakes between European populations, particularly between MED and non-MED countries.

Genome-wide association studies have previously identified 23 genetic loci associated with circulating fibrinogen concentration. These studies used HapMap imputation and did not examine the X-chromosome. 1000 Genomes imputation provides better coverage of uncommon variants, and includes indels. We conducted a genome-wide association analysis of 34 studies imputed to the 1000 Genomes Project reference panel and including ∼120 000 participants of European ancestry (95 806 participants with data on the X-chromosome). Approximately 10.7 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms and 1.2 million indels were examined. We identified 41 genome-wide significant fibrinogen loci; of which, 18 were newly identified. There were no genome-wide significant signals on the X-chromosome. The lead variants of five significant loci were indels. We further identified six additional independent signals, including three rare variants, at two previously characterized loci: FGB and IRF1. Together the 41 loci explain 3% of the variance in plasma fibrinogen concentration.

The role of amount and type of dietary fat consumption in the etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is poorly understood, despite suggestive biological plausibility. The associations of total fat, fat subtypes and fat sources with HCC incidence were investigated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, which includes 191 incident HCC cases diagnosed between 1992 and 2010. Diet was assessed by country-specific, validated dietary questionnaires. A single 24-hr diet recall from a cohort subsample was used for measurement error calibration. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated from Cox proportional hazard models. Hepatitis B and C viruses (HBV/HCV) status and biomarkers of liver function were assessed separately in a nested case-control subset with available blood samples (HCC = 122). In multivariable calibrated models, there was a statistically significant inverse association between total fat intake and risk of HCC (per 10 g/day, HR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.65-0.99), which was mainly driven by monounsaturated fats (per 5 g/day, HR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.55-0.92) rather than polyunsaturated fats (per 5 g/day, HR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.68-1.25). There was no association between saturated fats (HR = 1.08, 95% CI: 0.88-1.34) and HCC risk. The ratio of polyunsaturated/monounsaturated fats to saturated fats was not significantly associated with HCC risk (per 0.2 point, HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.73-1.01). Restriction of analyses to HBV/HCV free participants or adjustment for liver function did not substantially alter the findings. In this large prospective European cohort, higher consumption of monounsaturated fats is associated with lower HCC risk.

General obesity, as reflected by BMI, is an established risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), a suspected risk factor for gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCC) and appears unrelated to gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma (GNCC). How abdominal obesity, as commonly measured by waist circumference (WC), relates to these cancers remains largely unexplored. Using measured anthropometric data from 391,456 individuals from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study and 11 years of follow-up, we comprehensively assessed the association of anthropometric measures with risk of EAC, GCC and GNCC using multivariable proportional hazards regression. One hundred twenty-four incident EAC, 193 GCC and 224 GNCC were accrued. After mutual adjustment, BMI was unrelated to EAC, while WC showed a strong positive association (highest vs. lowest quintile HR = 1.19; 95% CI, 0.63-2.22 and HR = 3.76; 1.72-8.22, respectively). Hip circumference (HC) was inversely related to EAC after controlling for WC, while WC remained positively associated (HR = 0.35; 0.18-0.68, and HR=4.10; 1.94-8.63, respectively). BMI was not associated with GCC or GNCC. WC was related to higher risks of GCC after adjustment for BMI and more strongly after adjustment for HC (highest vs. lowest quintile HR = 1.91; 1.09-3.37, and HR = 2.23; 1.28-3.90, respectively). Our study demonstrates that abdominal, rather than general, obesity is an indisputable risk factor for EAC and also provides evidence for a protective effect of gluteofemoral (subcutaneous) adipose tissue in EAC. Our study further shows that general obesity is not a risk factor for GCC and GNCC, while the role of abdominal obesity in GCC needs further investigation.

ImportanceAssociations between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fractures are unclear and clinical trials are lacking.ObjectiveTo assess the association of subclinical thyroid dysfunction with hip, nonspine, spine, or any fractures.Data sources and study selectionThe databases of MEDLINE and EMBASE (inception to March 26, 2015) were searched without language restrictions for prospective cohort studies with thyroid function data and subsequent fractures.Data extractionIndividual participant data were obtained from 13 prospective cohorts in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Japan. Levels of thyroid function were defined as euthyroidism (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH], 0.45-4.49 mIU/L), subclinical hyperthyroidism (TSH

Neopterin may be relevant for colorectal cancer (CRC) development, as a biomarker of cellular immune activity exerting pleiotropic effects on cellular ageing, oxidative stress, and inflammation. So far, the association between prediagnostic neopterin and colon and rectal cancer risk has not been evaluated in human populations. A nested case-control study was conducted within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort using data on plasma concentrations of total neopterin (T-N, sum of neopterin and 7,8-dihydroneopterin) in 830 incident CRC case patients (561 colon and 269 rectal) matched within risk sets to 830 control participants. A subsequent replication study used data from the Hordaland Health Study, where 173 CRC case patients have been diagnosed among 6594 healthy participants over 12 years of follow-up. After multivariable adjustment for a priori chosen CRC risk factors, a "U-shaped" association of T-N with CRC was revealed. Compared with the second quintile of the T-N distribution, the relative risks for the first, third, fourth, and fifth quintiles were 2.37 (95% CI = 1.66 to 3.39), 1.24 (95% CI = 0.87 to 1.77), 1.55 (95% CI = 1.08 to 2.22), and 2.31 (95% CI = 1.63 to 3.27), respectively. Replication of these associations within the Hordaland Health Study yielded similar results. No differences have been observed when the associations were explored by colon and rectal cancer site (two-sided P difference = .87) and after excluding case patients diagnosed within the first four follow-up years. These novel findings provide evidence of the role of both suppressed and activated cell-mediated immunity as reflected by prediagnostic T-N concentrations in the development of CRC.

We performed a multistage genome-wide association study including 7,683 individuals with pancreatic cancer and 14,397 controls of European descent. Four new loci reached genome-wide significance: rs6971499 at 7q32.3 (LINC-PINT, per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74-0.84, P = 3.0 × 10(-12)), rs7190458 at 16q23.1 (BCAR1/CTRB1/CTRB2, OR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.65, P = 1.1 × 10(-10)), rs9581943 at 13q12.2 (PDX1, OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.10-1.20, P = 2.4 × 10(-9)) and rs16986825 at 22q12.1 (ZNRF3, OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.12-1.25, P = 1.2 × 10(-8)). We identified an independent signal in exon 2 of TERT at the established region 5p15.33 (rs2736098, OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76-0.85, P = 9.8 × 10(-14)). We also identified a locus at 8q24.21 (rs1561927, P = 1.3 × 10(-7)) that approached genome-wide significance located 455 kb telomeric of PVT1. Our study identified multiple new susceptibility alleles for pancreatic cancer that are worthy of follow-up studies.

ObjectiveTo use the rs1229984 variant in the alcohol dehydrogenase 1B gene (ADH1B) as an instrument to investigate the causal role of alcohol in cardiovascular disease.DesignMendelian randomisation meta-analysis of 56 epidemiological studies.Participants261 991 individuals of European descent, including 20 259 coronary heart disease cases and 10 164 stroke events. Data were available on ADH1B rs1229984 variant, alcohol phenotypes, and cardiovascular biomarkers.Main outcome measuresOdds ratio for coronary heart disease and stroke associated with the ADH1B variant in all individuals and by categories of alcohol consumption.ResultsCarriers of the A-allele of ADH1B rs1229984 consumed 17.2% fewer units of alcohol per week (95% confidence interval 15.6% to 18.9%), had a lower prevalence of binge drinking (odds ratio 0.78 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.84)), and had higher abstention (odds ratio 1.27 (1.21 to 1.34)) than non-carriers. Rs1229984 A-allele carriers had lower systolic blood pressure (-0.88 (-1.19 to -0.56) mm Hg), interleukin-6 levels (-5.2% (-7.8 to -2.4%)), waist circumference (-0.3 (-0.6 to -0.1) cm), and body mass index (-0.17 (-0.24 to -0.10) kg/m(2)). Rs1229984 A-allele carriers had lower odds of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.90 (0.84 to 0.96)). The protective association of the ADH1B rs1229984 A-allele variant remained the same across all categories of alcohol consumption (P=0.83 for heterogeneity). Although no association of rs1229984 was identified with the combined subtypes of stroke, carriers of the A-allele had lower odds of ischaemic stroke (odds ratio 0.83 (0.72 to 0.95)).ConclusionsIndividuals with a genetic variant associated with non-drinking and lower alcohol consumption had a more favourable cardiovascular profile and a reduced risk of coronary heart disease than those without the genetic variant. This suggests that reduction of alcohol consumption, even for light to moderate drinkers, is beneficial for cardiovascular health.

Although age-dependent effects on blood pressure (BP) have been reported, they have not been systematically investigated in large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We leveraged the infrastructure of three well-established consortia (CHARGE, GBPgen, and ICBP) and a nonstandard approach (age stratification and metaregression) to conduct a genome-wide search of common variants with age-dependent effects on systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP), mean arterial (MAP), and pulse (PP) pressure. In a two-staged design using 99,241 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 20 genome-wide significant (p ≤ 5 × 10(-8)) loci by using joint tests of the SNP main effect and SNP-age interaction. Nine of the significant loci demonstrated nominal evidence of age-dependent effects on BP by tests of the interactions alone. Index SNPs in the EHBP1L1 (DBP and MAP), CASZ1 (SBP and MAP), and GOSR2 (PP) loci exhibited the largest age interactions, with opposite directions of effect in the young versus the old. The changes in the genetic effects over time were small but nonnegligible (up to 1.58 mm Hg over 60 years). The EHBP1L1 locus was discovered through gene-age interactions only in whites but had DBP main effects replicated (p = 8.3 × 10(-4)) in 8,682 Asians from Singapore, indicating potential interethnic heterogeneity. A secondary analysis revealed 22 loci with evidence of age-specific effects (e.g., only in 20 to 29-year-olds). Age can be used to select samples with larger genetic effect sizes and more homogenous phenotypes, which may increase statistical power. Age-dependent effects identified through novel statistical approaches can provide insight into the biology and temporal regulation underlying BP associations.

Quantitative ultrasound of the heel captures heel bone properties that independently predict fracture risk and, with bone mineral density (BMD) assessed by X-ray (DXA), may be convenient alternatives for evaluating osteoporosis and fracture risk. We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) studies to assess the genetic determinants of heel broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA; n = 14 260), velocity of sound (VOS; n = 15 514) and BMD (n = 4566) in 13 discovery cohorts. Independent replication involved seven cohorts with GWA data (in silico n = 11 452) and new genotyping in 15 cohorts (de novo n = 24 902). In combined random effects, meta-analysis of the discovery and replication cohorts, nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) had genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)) associations with heel bone properties. Alongside SNPs within or near previously identified osteoporosis susceptibility genes including ESR1 (6q25.1: rs4869739, rs3020331, rs2982552), SPTBN1 (2p16.2: rs11898505), RSPO3 (6q22.33: rs7741021), WNT16 (7q31.31: rs2908007), DKK1 (10q21.1: rs7902708) and GPATCH1 (19q13.11: rs10416265), we identified a new locus on chromosome 11q14.2 (rs597319 close to TMEM135, a gene recently linked to osteoblastogenesis and longevity) significantly associated with both BUA and VOS (P < 8.23 × 10(-14)). In meta-analyses involving 25 cohorts with up to 14 985 fracture cases, six of 10 SNPs associated with heel bone properties at P < 5 × 10(-6) also had the expected direction of association with any fracture (P < 0.05), including three SNPs with P < 0.005: 6q22.33 (rs7741021), 7q31.31 (rs2908007) and 10q21.1 (rs7902708). In conclusion, this GWA study reveals the effect of several genes common to central DXA-derived BMD and heel ultrasound/DXA measures and points to a new genetic locus with potential implications for better understanding of osteoporosis pathophysiology.

Background and objectiveSurvival of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma is limited and few prognostic factors are known. We conducted a two-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify germline variants associated with survival in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma.MethodsWe analysed overall survival in relation to single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) among 1005 patients from two large GWAS datasets, PanScan I and ChinaPC. Cox proportional hazards regression was used in an additive genetic model with adjustment for age, sex, clinical stage and the top four principal components of population stratification. The first stage included 642 cases of European ancestry (PanScan), from which the top SNPs (p≤10(-5)) were advanced to a joint analysis with 363 additional patients from China (ChinaPC).ResultsIn the first stage of cases of European descent, the top-ranked loci were at chromosomes 11p15.4, 18p11.21 and 1p36.13, tagged by rs12362504 (p=1.63×10(-7)), rs981621 (p=1.65×10(-7)) and rs16861827 (p=3.75×10(-7)), respectively. 131 SNPs with p≤10(-5) were advanced to a joint analysis with cases from the ChinaPC study. In the joint analysis, the top-ranked SNP was rs10500715 (minor allele frequency, 0.37; p=1.72×10(-7)) on chromosome 11p15.4, which is intronic to the SET binding factor 2 (SBF2) gene. The HR (95% CI) for death was 0.74 (0.66 to 0.84) in PanScan I, 0.79 (0.65 to 0.97) in ChinaPC and 0.76 (0.68 to 0.84) in the joint analysis.ConclusionsGermline genetic variation in the SBF2 locus was associated with overall survival in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma of European and Asian ancestry. This association should be investigated in additional large patient cohorts.

Several recent studies suggest that obesity may be a risk factor for fracture. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and future fracture risk at different skeletal sites. In prospective cohorts from more than 25 countries, baseline data on BMI were available in 398,610 women with an average age of 63 (range, 20-105) years and follow up of 2.2 million person-years during which 30,280 osteoporotic fractures (6457 hip fractures) occurred. Femoral neck BMD was measured in 108,267 of these women. Obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2) ) was present in 22%. A majority of osteoporotic fractures (81%) and hip fractures (87%) arose in non-obese women. Compared to a BMI of 25 kg/m(2) , the hazard ratio (HR) for osteoporotic fracture at a BMI of 35 kg/m(2) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-0.90). When adjusted for bone mineral density (BMD), however, the same comparison showed that the HR for osteoporotic fracture was increased (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.09-1.23). Low BMI is a risk factor for hip and all osteoporotic fracture, but is a protective factor for lower leg fracture, whereas high BMI is a risk factor for upper arm (humerus and elbow) fracture. When adjusted for BMD, low BMI remained a risk factor for hip fracture but was protective for osteoporotic fracture, tibia and fibula fracture, distal forearm fracture, and upper arm fracture. When adjusted for BMD, high BMI remained a risk factor for upper arm fracture but was also a risk factor for all osteoporotic fractures. The association between BMI and fracture risk is complex, differs across skeletal sites, and is modified by the interaction between BMI and BMD. At a population level, high BMI remains a protective factor for most sites of fragility fracture. The contribution of increasing population rates of obesity to apparent decreases in fracture rates should be explored.

BackgroundAmerican College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for the diagnosis and management of heart failure recommend investigating exacerbating conditions such as thyroid dysfunction, but without specifying the impact of different thyroid-stimulation hormone (TSH) levels. Limited prospective data exist on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and heart failure events.Methods and resultsWe performed a pooled analysis of individual participant data using all available prospective cohorts with thyroid function tests and subsequent follow-up of heart failure events. Individual data on 25 390 participants with 216 248 person-years of follow-up were supplied from 6 prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH of 0.45 to 4.49 mIU/L, subclinical hypothyroidism as TSH of 4.5 to 19.9 mIU/L, and subclinical hyperthyroidism as TSH

BACKGROUND: Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting.We aimed to assess the risks of total and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, CHD events, and atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism among all available large prospective cohorts. METHODS: Individual data on 52 674 participants were pooled from 10 cohorts. Coronary heart disease events were analyzed in 22 437 participants from 6 cohorts with available data, and incident AF was analyzed in 8711 participants from 5 cohorts. Euthyroidism was defined as thyrotropin level between 0.45 and 4.49 mIU/L and endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism as thyrotropin level lower than 0.45 mIU/L with normal free thyroxine levels, after excluding those receiving thyroid-altering medications. RESULTS: Of 52 674 participants, 2188 (4.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During follow-up, 8527 participants died (including 1896 from CHD), 3653 of 22 437 had CHD events, and 785 of 8711 developed AF. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with increased total mortality (hazard ratio[HR], 1.24, 95% CI, 1.06-1.46), CHD mortality (HR,1.29; 95% CI, 1.02-1.62), CHD events (HR, 1.21; 95%CI, 0.99-1.46), and AF (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.16-2.43).Risks did not differ significantly by age, sex, or preexisting cardiovascular disease and were similar after further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, with attributable risk of 14.5% for total mortality to 41.5% forAF in those with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Risks for CHD mortality and AF (but not other outcomes) were higher for thyrotropin level lower than 0.10 mIU/L compared with thyrotropin level between 0.10 and 0.44 mIU/L(for both, P value for trend, .03). CONCLUSION: Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism is associated with increased risks of total, CHD mortality, and incident AF, with highest risks of CHD mortality and AF when thyrotropin level is lower than 0.10 mIU/L.

• Nurses should understand the physical capabilities and mobility performance of older patients. • Nearly one-quarter of observed older patients functionally declined (24.4%) during an admission. • Older adults of moderate to high physical capability performed most incidental activity with toileting. • Walking-exercise equivalent to 20-min was linked to less functional decline in older patients. • Findings suggest walking-exercise was more beneficial than incidental activity to prevent decline. Emerging evidence suggests hospitalized older adults should walk at least 20-minutes daily to minimize functional decline. A single-institution case study conducted in a tertiary-referral centre in Melbourne, Australia, aimed to examine functional change and describe characteristics of older patients' in-hospital mobility. From 526 older patients vulnerable to functional decline, a sample of 41 patients (Mean age = 83.6, SD = 6.1 years) participated in 6-hour naturalistic observations. Functional change was measured at 2-weeks preadmission, admission and discharge with the revised Measurement System of Functional Autonomy (SMAF). Nearly 25% (n = 10) of observed patients functionally declined between preadmission and discharge and five patients died (12.2%). Thirty-two patients (78%) mobilized in 133 episodes accounting for 3.1% of the 246-hours observed. A daily walking-exercise dose equivalent to 20-min was associated with less functional decline in older adults with moderate to high walking capability supporting the effectiveness of this daily walking-exercise dose in minimizing functional decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]