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ObjectivesIn developed countries, the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) has declined in the over 50 years age group but increased in younger people. We studied CRC incidence by age and the influence of screening uptake.DesignAge-standardised and sex-standardised incidences for CRC from 1997 to 2017 were obtained from the Scottish Cancer Registry (SCR). In addition, linkage between the Scottish Bowel Screening Database and the SCR allowed investigation of any association between screening participation and CRC incidence.SettingScotland and the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme, in which guaiac faecal occult blood test screening was piloted from March 2000 and fully rolled by December 2009.ParticipantsFrom the introduction of screening in 2000 through to 2017, 2 395 172 were invited to participate, of whom 1 487 999 participated at least once.Main outcome measuresIncidence of CRC.ResultsIn the screening age range (50–74 years), CRC incidence peaked at 156.5 cases per 100 000 in 2010 after full roll-out of screening across Scotland but fell to 123.9 per 100 000 in 2017. However, under 50 years, there was a rise from 5.3 cases per 100 000 in 2000 to 6.8 per 100 000 in 2017. When CRC incidence was examined in those who had been offered screening, incidence fell in the participant group more than in the non-participant group after roll-out of screening was complete. Analysis of cumulative incidence demonstrated that CRC incidence in the participant group remained consistently below that of the non-participant from around 7 years of follow-up.ConclusionsThe incidence of CRC in Scotland has declined in the over 50 years age group but increased in younger people. It is likely that population screening has contributed to the reduction in CRC incidence in the over 50 years age group.

ObjectiveFaecal immunochemical tests (FIT) are replacing guaiac faecal occult blood tests (FOBT) in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Data from the first year of FIT screening were compared with those from FOBT screening and assumptions based on a pilot evaluation of FIT.DesignData on uptake, positivity, positive predictive value (PPV) for CRC and higher-risk adenoma from participants in the first year of the FIT-based Scottish Bowel Screening Programme (n=919 665), with a threshold of 80 µg Hb/g faeces, were compared with those from the penultimate year of the FOBT-based programme (n=862 165) and those from the FIT evaluation (n=66 225).ResultsOverall, uptake of FIT was 63.9% compared with 56.4% for FOBT. Positivity was 3.1% and 2.2% with FIT and FOBT; increases were seen in both sexes, and across age range and deprivation. More CRC and adenomas were detected by FIT, but the PPV for CRC was less (5.2% with FIT and 6.4% with FOBT). However, for higher-risk adenoma, PPV was greater with FIT (24.3% with FIT and 19.3% with FOBT). In the previous FIT evaluation, uptake was 58.5% with FIT compared with 54.0% with FOBT; positivity was 2.5% with FIT and 2.0% with FOBT.ConclusionTransition to FIT from FOBT produced higher uptake and positivity with lower PPV for CRC and higher PPV for adenoma. The FIT pilot evaluation underestimated uptake and positivity. Introducing FIT at the same threshold as the evaluation caused a 67.2% increase in colonoscopy demand instead of a predicted 10%.

Objectives Changes in the prevalence of faecal occult blood test positivity over time have not been previously reported, but could have important implications. This study examined the positivity of the initial guaiac faecal occult blood test, a surrogate marker for colorectal bleeding, in participants aged 50 in a national bowel screening programme. Methods Data from the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme were used to study the initial positivity of the guaiac faecal occult blood test between 2007 and 2017. Positive predictive values of the testing process for colorectal cancer and adenoma were assessed over the same time period. Results Across Scotland, the initial guaiac faecal occult blood test positivity increased from 4.1 to 10.8%. In NHS Grampian and NHS Fife, two of the three NHS Boards which began roll-out of screening in 2007, it increased from 4.0 to 10.9%. In the Scottish Bowel Screening Programme, the positive predictive value declined from 11.0 to 6.6% for colorectal cancer and increased from 31.6 to 39.8% for adenoma. Conclusions In the Scottish programme over a decade, initial guaiac faecal occult blood test positivity increased in participants aged 50. This may be associated with changes in lifestyle and might have implications for screening clinical outcomes, including positive predictive value.