1. GRACE risk score: Sex-based validity of in-hospital mortality prediction in Canadian patients with acute coronary syndrome.
- Author
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Gong IY, Goodman SG, Brieger D, Gale CP, Chew DP, Welsh RC, Huynh T, DeYoung JP, Baer C, Gyenes GT, Udell JA, Fox KAA, and Yan AT
- Subjects
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Canada epidemiology, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Prospective Studies, Registries, Reproducibility of Results, Risk Factors, Acute Coronary Syndrome diagnosis, Acute Coronary Syndrome mortality, Hospital Mortality trends, Sex Characteristics
- Abstract
Background: Although there are sex differences in management and outcome of acute coronary syndromes (ACS), sex is not a component of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score (RS) for in-hospital mortality prediction. We sought to determine the prognostic utility of GRACE RS in men and women, and whether its predictive accuracy would be augmented through sex-based modification of its components., Methods: Canadian men and women enrolled in GRACE and Canadian Registry of Acute Coronary Events were stratified as ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) or non-ST-segment elevation ACS (NSTE-ACS). GRACE RS was calculated as per original model. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated using the c-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was undertaken to assess potential interactions of sex with GRACE RS components., Results: For the overall cohort (n=14,422), unadjusted in-hospital mortality rate was higher in women than men (4.5% vs. 3.0%, p<0.001). Overall, GRACE RS c-statistic and goodness-of-fit test p-value were 0.85 (95% CI 0.83-0.87) and 0.11, respectively. While the RS had excellent discrimination for all subgroups (c-statistics >0.80), discrimination was lower for women compared to men with STEMI [0.80 (0.75-0.84) vs. 0.86 (0.82-0.89), respectively, p<0.05]. The goodness-of-fit test showed good calibration for women (p=0.86), but suboptimal for men (p=0.031). No significant interaction was evident between sex and RS components (all p>0.25)., Conclusions: The GRACE RS is a valid predictor of in-hospital mortality for both men and women with ACS. The lack of interaction between sex and RS components suggests that sex-based modification is not required., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2017
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